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Old 11-03-2016, 09:11 PM  
duncan_idaho duncan_idaho is offline
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*** Official 2017 Royals Offseason Repository ***

The reign is over. Time to begin the quest for the next one.

Interesting offseason opens for the Royals. Will they go all in for one last shot with this crew? Will they re-tool for 2018 and beyond? Will Dayton Moore actually decrease payroll this time?

Trades, free agent signings, rumors, plans, proposals... dump 'em all here, for this is... the offseason repository!

Royals Top Prospects, 2017

This is a list that’s going to seem a little bleak initially, as Raul Mondesi got enough ABs to age out of the prospect rankings (just barely – at 135 ABs, he is not rookie eligible). But that said, I like the talent and feel like this is a system that will actually be underrated by the prospect services.

Spoiler!

Last edited by duncan_idaho; 02-22-2017 at 09:07 PM..
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Old 01-08-2017, 09:03 PM   #1201
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fWAR, starting pitchers, drafted since 2007

Bottom 6 on that list have 7 of the 10 World Series Championships in the same time frame.
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Old 01-10-2017, 07:36 AM   #1202
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So Flanny is still talking about Matt Adams:
http://m.royals.mlb.com/news/article...-royals-power/

If he's still talking about it, the team is still talking about it.

Could stomach it, depending on the cost, I guess. Not sure what KC has that the Cardinals would want at this point.


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Old 01-10-2017, 07:37 AM   #1203
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Oh, also... I'm officially tabbing Chris Withrow as the minor league signing who will thrive in KC's bullpen. Second year back from injury, former first rounder, has good stuff.


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Old 01-10-2017, 09:52 AM   #1204
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Quote:
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho View Post
So Flanny is still talking about Matt Adams:
http://m.royals.mlb.com/news/article...-royals-power/

If he's still talking about it, the team is still talking about it.

Could stomach it, depending on the cost, I guess. Not sure what KC has that the Cardinals would want at this point.


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If they still had that Strouds out in LF, I'd gladly take half-chicken and a tub of pepper gravy for him.

**** it - keep the chicken, double the gravy and throw in some cottage fries and I'm sold.
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Old 01-10-2017, 10:22 AM   #1205
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Oh, also... I'm officially tabbing Chris Withrow as the minor league signing who will thrive in KC's bullpen. Second year back from injury, former first rounder, has good stuff.


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Agreed. He'll be 2015 Ryan Madson.
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Old 01-10-2017, 10:35 AM   #1206
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Dream a little dream, shall we? As starters:


Wade Davis 6-5 225
2011 11-10 29 GS 184 IP (5.14 K/9 3.08 BB/9) 4.45 ERA 4.67 FIP 1.1 WAR 91.8 velocity
2013 6-10 24 GS 125 IP (7.68 K/9 3.88 BB/9) 5.67 ERA 4.28 FIP 1.4 WAR 92.5 velocity


Nate Karns 6-3 235
2015 7-5 26 GS 147 IP (8.88 K/9 3.43 BB/9) 3.67 ERA 4.09 FIP 1.5 WAR 91.6 velocity
2016 6-2 15 GS 81 IP (9.33 K/9 4.22 BB/9) 4.56 ERA 3.84 FIP 1.2 WAR 92.9 velocity
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Old 01-10-2017, 11:02 AM   #1207
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Quote:
Originally Posted by duncan_idaho View Post
So Flanny is still talking about Matt Adams:
http://m.royals.mlb.com/news/article...-royals-power/

If he's still talking about it, the team is still talking about it.

Could stomach it, depending on the cost, I guess. Not sure what KC has that the Cardinals would want at this point.


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Old 01-10-2017, 11:11 AM   #1208
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Prison Bitch View Post
Dream a little dream, shall we? As starters:


Wade Davis 6-5 225
2011 11-10 29 GS 184 IP (5.14 K/9 3.08 BB/9) 4.45 ERA 4.67 FIP 1.1 WAR 91.8 velocity
2013 6-10 24 GS 125 IP (7.68 K/9 3.88 BB/9) 5.67 ERA 4.28 FIP 1.4 WAR 92.5 velocity


Nate Karns 6-3 235
2015 7-5 26 GS 147 IP (8.88 K/9 3.43 BB/9) 3.67 ERA 4.09 FIP 1.5 WAR 91.6 velocity
2016 6-2 15 GS 81 IP (9.33 K/9 4.22 BB/9) 4.56 ERA 3.84 FIP 1.2 WAR 92.9 velocity
But they failed for different reasons and Davis's were easily hidden in the 'ben.

Davis was a wipeout reliever in TB before the Royals acquired him. His issue was a third pitch. He just kept trying to make a slider/changeup combo work in the rotation and he never could get a feel for either of them. He went to the 'pen and could focus on the cutter (because it's not a feel pitch so it works great for relievers as they don't have to throw it as often to maintain it) as his 2nd pitch and focus on developing a single breaking ball with his curve. It allowed him to streamline his approach a great deal.

Pitch mix won't be what saves Karns, IMO. His fastball/curveball/changeup combination would be fine if he had any command of it at all. And while he hasn't spent a lot of time in the 'pen, he's actually been worse out there than he has been as a starter.

Nothing's concrete but this isn't a Davis situation. Davis was a guy who the Royals knew from the very beginning would be a nails reliever if he couldn't start because he'd demonstrated it. Karns, OTOH, doesn't have that safety net. He may succeed as a reliever but there's no sense in presuming that he will. Command issues will hurt you in relief every bit as badly as they will as a starter and the ol' 'let it all hang out' attitude as a reliever doesn't help you much in that regard either.

Dude has to get his mechanics ironed out or he's not of any use to anyone.
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Old 01-10-2017, 11:48 AM   #1209
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I'll stipulate we knew Davis was a shutdown closer, whereas we don't know that about Karns.


Looking at the PitchFX data, it seems their biggest difference is Wade's high values on his FB, whereas Karns has a negative value (which is weird given his velocity). Wade's cutter actually ranked equal to Karns' curveball in value last 2 seasons.


Where I will strongly disagree is he has "no use to anyone" in his current state. Filtering pitchers with 200+ IP the last 2 seasons, Karns ranks #20 in K/9 rate out of 126 pitchers (sandwiched between Jacob DeGrom and Mr Kate Upton). That's some serious effectiveness putting AL hitters down.


Here's who he looks an awful bit alike so far (age notwithstanding):

Karns 9.17 K/9 3.77 BB/9 12.2 FB/HR 4.07 FIP
Rodon 9.08 K/9 3.70 BB/9 12.2 FB/HR 3.95 FIP
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Old 01-10-2017, 11:52 AM   #1210
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I'll stipulate we knew Davis was a shutdown closer, whereas we don't know that about Karns.


Looking at the PitchFX data, it seems their biggest difference is Wade's high values on his FB, whereas Karns has a negative value (which is weird given his velocity). Wade's cutter actually ranked equal to Karns' curveball in value last 2 seasons.


Where I will strongly disagree is he has "no use to anyone" in his current state. Filtering pitchers with 200+ IP the last 2 seasons, Karns ranks #20 in K/9 rate out of 126 pitchers (sandwiched between Jacob DeGrom and Mr Kate Upton). That's some serious effectiveness putting AL hitters down.


Here's who he looks an awful bit alike so far (age notwithstanding):

Karns 9.17 K/9 3.77 BB/9 12.2 FB/HR 4.07 FIP
Rodon 9.08 K/9 3.70 BB/9 12.2 FB/HR 3.95 FIP
And if Rodon continues to hover about with a FIP near 4, he won't say in the rotation.

'No use' is harsh because 5th starters are worth $10 million on the open market these days. So if nothing else, you can run him out there to eat up 180 innings and be generally passable for a hell of a lot less than you'd spend on the open market.

But being a warm body isn't exactly high praise.
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Old 01-10-2017, 12:06 PM   #1211
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His K rate ranks just ahead of: Verlander, Rodon, Smyly, David Price, Hamels, Arrieta and Lester. (His BB rate is obv worse). FG actually has an article (LINK) today on Karns suggesting his fastball spin rate declined precipitously when he got hurt last year.

If he can get healthy and if he can get his FB to useful value, he will provide value. I suspect he'll end up in the pen either way. For 1 year of a fourth OF, seems like a no brainer trade.
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Old 01-10-2017, 12:10 PM   #1212
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Travis Kelce is the Eric Hosmer for the Chiefs

Eric Hosmer is my favorite Royal I think he is the coolest dude on Planet Earth.
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Old 01-10-2017, 12:12 PM   #1213
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Karns key is getting his control back to what it was in 2015 and early in 2016.

He strikes out enough hitters to be a quality no 3/4 starter if his walk rate is in the low to mid 3s/9.

Eiland has had pretty good success with that profile.


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Old 01-10-2017, 12:12 PM   #1214
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Travis Kelce is the Eric Hosmer for the Chiefs

Eric Hosmer is my favorite Royal I think he is the coolest dude on Planet Earth.
Nah.

Travis Kelce is actually as good as his reputation.
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Old 01-10-2017, 12:15 PM   #1215
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Nah.

Travis Kelce is actually as good as his reputation.
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