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Old 11-03-2016, 09:11 PM  
duncan_idaho duncan_idaho is offline
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*** Official 2017 Royals Offseason Repository ***

The reign is over. Time to begin the quest for the next one.

Interesting offseason opens for the Royals. Will they go all in for one last shot with this crew? Will they re-tool for 2018 and beyond? Will Dayton Moore actually decrease payroll this time?

Trades, free agent signings, rumors, plans, proposals... dump 'em all here, for this is... the offseason repository!

Royals Top Prospects, 2017

This is a list that’s going to seem a little bleak initially, as Raul Mondesi got enough ABs to age out of the prospect rankings (just barely – at 135 ABs, he is not rookie eligible). But that said, I like the talent and feel like this is a system that will actually be underrated by the prospect services.

Format: POS/Name/2017 Projected Final Level

1) 3B/OF Hunter Dozier, MLB. Dozier bounced back from a disastrous 2015 campaign that had many wondering, myself included, if he was wrecked. His strong offensive performance in 2016 saw Dozier recapture the mature approach that many liked coming up, while also starting to tap into his above-average raw power for the first time.

In addition to his success at the plate, Dozier also proved he could at least HANDLE an OF spot, which could put him in the conversation for 2017 playing time at the major leagues. If the Royals DO end up trading Cheslor Cuthbert, Dozier could find a decent amount of MLB playing time sliding between RF and 3B. With Moustakas recovering from knee surgery, he likely will need more regular breaks from the field. And the streaky Paulo Orlando is just not an intriguing short-side platoon partner for Jarrod Dyson.

2) LHP Matt Strahm, MLB. Strahm just barely skates under the rookie eligibility rules for a pitcher, so he can be included here. Royals fans already got a taste of the lefty’s abilities, as he used his above-average fastball and slurve to dominate out of the pen in 2016. For him to translate that dominance to the rotation, Strahm will need to maintain his velocity (92-94) and continue to improve a changeup that flashed average at times.

If the changeup becomes a weapon he can lean on against righties, Strahm could be a very solid mid-rotation starter and fringe ToR/No. 2 type (think Danny Duffy-lite).

3) RHP Josh Staumont, AAA. This one could blow up on me and look really silly by this time next year, but I’m encouraged by what we saw from Staumont late last year. He showed significantly improved control down the stretch for Northwest Arkansas, including some impressive playoff starts, while maintaining the big-time K ability. That trend continued in the Arizona Fall League.

If Staumont’s control holds, the Royals have a guy with a plus fastball, plus-plus curve, and average change (with a slider that could develop into a real weapon as he matures). He’ll start next season at AAA and could be an addition to the MLB bullpen or even the rotation before the season ends.

4) RF Jorge Bonifacio, AAA. Boni, like Dozier, had a bounceback season in 2016 with the bat, and also played 15-20 pounds lighter than the year before, which added some nice defensive utility according to reports I’ve gotten. He now looks like a guy could provide solid/average RF production in the major leagues… Average defense paired with potential to put up a .275/.335/.450 line. While that’s not all-star level, it IS playable. Especially at pre-arbitration dollars. He’ll get another year in Omaha to refine his approach, and likely be in the mix of a 2018 mini-youth movement… unless moved for MLB reinforcements.

5) C Meibrys Viloria, Low-A (Lexington). I haven’t seen him in person, but I like the pedigree. You’ve got a lefthanded hitting catcher with the defensive ability to stick behind the plate. He was a big-bonus guy out of Colombia (nearly $500k). And his offensive performance has been highly impressive early, with a good combination of power, plate discipline, and contact skills.

He’s forever away from the majors, just now clearing rookie ball, but Viloria is the most exciting prospect KC has had at Idaho Falls since someone on this board was gushing about a 16-year-old SS tearing it up.

6) 1B Ryan O’Hearn, AAA. O’Hearn is a guy who has never gotten a lot of hype from scouts, but he continues to be a strong producer. He’s someone who likely will strikeout about 25 percent of the time at the big-league level, but has the ability to be a .500+ SLG guy. That plays. He also has shown good patience at the plate, posting above-average OBPs at every level.

Bold prediction: I won’t be shocked if O’Hearn takes over at 1B for KC in 2018/2019 and provides similar offensive production to Hosmer out of the gate. He’s probably never going to be a consistent plus average (.290+) hitter, but .270 with 25 HR is something within reach for him. He’ll get his first shot at AAA in 2017.

7) RHP AJ Puckett, A+. Puckett is a high floor, low-ceiling guy who performed about as you’d expect in 2016 after being the Royals’ first pick in the 2016 Rule IV Draft. He’s not flashy, but Puckett does profile as a solid potential back-end starter. Good fastball command and an above-average changeup are his calling cards. If Puckett finds a reliable breaking ball to put batters away, this could tick up. Great athlete, very similar to Jake Odorizzi in that regard.

8) RF Khalil Lee, Low-A (Lexington). Lee was a two-way player in HS and many viewed him as a pitcher first as a pro, but the Royals drafted him as an OF and were reward with a strong debut campaign. Lee is not a big guy, but he produced solid power numbers despite that. He’s a dynamic athlete who could contribute with power and speed.

9) C Chase Vallot, High-A (Wilmington). Vallot has an intriguing bat, with plus raw power. Got off to a great start in 16 before being sidelined and then sidetracked by injury. RH bat may be good enough to push him out from behind the plate, where he has good tools but a long way to go.

10) RHP Jake Junis and RHP Alec Mills (AAA). I'm copping out here and including both at No. 10 because they're so similar. Like Puckett, they each project as a serviceable back of rotation starter. Similar stuff and profiles, though Junis has shown a little better strikeout ability and may have a smidge more upside as a result.

Others of note:

SS/CF Marten Gasparini. Production has been bad for this toolsy player, but Gasparini has speed and pop that jump out at you. At only 19, need to be patient with him... this European signee was even less polished when signing at 16 than the typical Latin America prospect.

OF Seuly Matias. Loud, loud tools. Matias profiles as a classic RF... big-time power potential. He's a long ways from the majors but is one of the Royals' biggest bonus babies from LA.

RHP Ashe Russell. 2014 1st rounder saw his velocity disappear last year and was quickly shut down. He's intriguing one way or the other, even if he ends up as another notch in the belt of the TINSTAAPP saying.

2B Corey Toups. O'Hearn's HS teammate has been an above-average producer for an up-the-middle player. His small stature hides a surprising amount of pop. Could turn into a Mark Grudzielanek type of offensive second baseman at his peak - solid average, lots of 2Bs.

RHP Scott Blewett, LHP Foster Griffin, RHP Nolan Watson - all three have underwhelmed as pros but were drafted in the supplemental round. Stuff and projectability for each is a positive. Wouldn't be surprised to see one of them take a Cody Reed-like step forward this season and crack the 50-75 range on prospect lists. They all have the natural ability.

SS/2B Ricky Aracena - Jose Altuve-sized Aracena is a switch hitting middle infielder who can flat out run. Switch hitter with a good approach.

RHP Pedro Fernandez - I'm still a believer in his stuff, even if he is destined for the pen. Was having a nice 2016 start until injuries derailed him right after his promotion to AA.

Sirs not Appearing in this Prospect List:

RHP Kyle Zimmer. Same story, different year. The Royals are hopeful they FINALLY found the cause of Zimmer's achy shoulder. If they really did, and he can stay healthy, the talent/potential is exciting.

OF Bubba Starling. Never trust a guy named Derek.

Last edited by duncan_idaho; 11-03-2016 at 09:38 PM..
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Old 01-08-2017, 09:03 PM   #1201
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fWAR, starting pitchers, drafted since 2007

Bottom 6 on that list have 7 of the 10 World Series Championships in the same time frame.
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Old 01-10-2017, 07:36 AM   #1202
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So Flanny is still talking about Matt Adams:
http://m.royals.mlb.com/news/article...-royals-power/

If he's still talking about it, the team is still talking about it.

Could stomach it, depending on the cost, I guess. Not sure what KC has that the Cardinals would want at this point.


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Old 01-10-2017, 07:37 AM   #1203
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Oh, also... I'm officially tabbing Chris Withrow as the minor league signing who will thrive in KC's bullpen. Second year back from injury, former first rounder, has good stuff.


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Old 01-10-2017, 09:52 AM   #1204
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Originally Posted by duncan_idaho View Post
So Flanny is still talking about Matt Adams:
http://m.royals.mlb.com/news/article...-royals-power/

If he's still talking about it, the team is still talking about it.

Could stomach it, depending on the cost, I guess. Not sure what KC has that the Cardinals would want at this point.


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If they still had that Strouds out in LF, I'd gladly take half-chicken and a tub of pepper gravy for him.

**** it - keep the chicken, double the gravy and throw in some cottage fries and I'm sold.
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Old 01-10-2017, 10:22 AM   #1205
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Oh, also... I'm officially tabbing Chris Withrow as the minor league signing who will thrive in KC's bullpen. Second year back from injury, former first rounder, has good stuff.


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Agreed. He'll be 2015 Ryan Madson.
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Old 01-10-2017, 10:35 AM   #1206
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Dream a little dream, shall we? As starters:


Wade Davis 6-5 225
2011 11-10 29 GS 184 IP (5.14 K/9 3.08 BB/9) 4.45 ERA 4.67 FIP 1.1 WAR 91.8 velocity
2013 6-10 24 GS 125 IP (7.68 K/9 3.88 BB/9) 5.67 ERA 4.28 FIP 1.4 WAR 92.5 velocity


Nate Karns 6-3 235
2015 7-5 26 GS 147 IP (8.88 K/9 3.43 BB/9) 3.67 ERA 4.09 FIP 1.5 WAR 91.6 velocity
2016 6-2 15 GS 81 IP (9.33 K/9 4.22 BB/9) 4.56 ERA 3.84 FIP 1.2 WAR 92.9 velocity
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Old 01-10-2017, 11:02 AM   #1207
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Originally Posted by duncan_idaho View Post
So Flanny is still talking about Matt Adams:
http://m.royals.mlb.com/news/article...-royals-power/

If he's still talking about it, the team is still talking about it.

Could stomach it, depending on the cost, I guess. Not sure what KC has that the Cardinals would want at this point.


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Old 01-10-2017, 11:11 AM   #1208
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Dream a little dream, shall we? As starters:


Wade Davis 6-5 225
2011 11-10 29 GS 184 IP (5.14 K/9 3.08 BB/9) 4.45 ERA 4.67 FIP 1.1 WAR 91.8 velocity
2013 6-10 24 GS 125 IP (7.68 K/9 3.88 BB/9) 5.67 ERA 4.28 FIP 1.4 WAR 92.5 velocity


Nate Karns 6-3 235
2015 7-5 26 GS 147 IP (8.88 K/9 3.43 BB/9) 3.67 ERA 4.09 FIP 1.5 WAR 91.6 velocity
2016 6-2 15 GS 81 IP (9.33 K/9 4.22 BB/9) 4.56 ERA 3.84 FIP 1.2 WAR 92.9 velocity
But they failed for different reasons and Davis's were easily hidden in the 'ben.

Davis was a wipeout reliever in TB before the Royals acquired him. His issue was a third pitch. He just kept trying to make a slider/changeup combo work in the rotation and he never could get a feel for either of them. He went to the 'pen and could focus on the cutter (because it's not a feel pitch so it works great for relievers as they don't have to throw it as often to maintain it) as his 2nd pitch and focus on developing a single breaking ball with his curve. It allowed him to streamline his approach a great deal.

Pitch mix won't be what saves Karns, IMO. His fastball/curveball/changeup combination would be fine if he had any command of it at all. And while he hasn't spent a lot of time in the 'pen, he's actually been worse out there than he has been as a starter.

Nothing's concrete but this isn't a Davis situation. Davis was a guy who the Royals knew from the very beginning would be a nails reliever if he couldn't start because he'd demonstrated it. Karns, OTOH, doesn't have that safety net. He may succeed as a reliever but there's no sense in presuming that he will. Command issues will hurt you in relief every bit as badly as they will as a starter and the ol' 'let it all hang out' attitude as a reliever doesn't help you much in that regard either.

Dude has to get his mechanics ironed out or he's not of any use to anyone.
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Old 01-10-2017, 11:48 AM   #1209
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I'll stipulate we knew Davis was a shutdown closer, whereas we don't know that about Karns.


Looking at the PitchFX data, it seems their biggest difference is Wade's high values on his FB, whereas Karns has a negative value (which is weird given his velocity). Wade's cutter actually ranked equal to Karns' curveball in value last 2 seasons.


Where I will strongly disagree is he has "no use to anyone" in his current state. Filtering pitchers with 200+ IP the last 2 seasons, Karns ranks #20 in K/9 rate out of 126 pitchers (sandwiched between Jacob DeGrom and Mr Kate Upton). That's some serious effectiveness putting AL hitters down.


Here's who he looks an awful bit alike so far (age notwithstanding):

Karns 9.17 K/9 3.77 BB/9 12.2 FB/HR 4.07 FIP
Rodon 9.08 K/9 3.70 BB/9 12.2 FB/HR 3.95 FIP
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Old 01-10-2017, 11:52 AM   #1210
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I'll stipulate we knew Davis was a shutdown closer, whereas we don't know that about Karns.


Looking at the PitchFX data, it seems their biggest difference is Wade's high values on his FB, whereas Karns has a negative value (which is weird given his velocity). Wade's cutter actually ranked equal to Karns' curveball in value last 2 seasons.


Where I will strongly disagree is he has "no use to anyone" in his current state. Filtering pitchers with 200+ IP the last 2 seasons, Karns ranks #20 in K/9 rate out of 126 pitchers (sandwiched between Jacob DeGrom and Mr Kate Upton). That's some serious effectiveness putting AL hitters down.


Here's who he looks an awful bit alike so far (age notwithstanding):

Karns 9.17 K/9 3.77 BB/9 12.2 FB/HR 4.07 FIP
Rodon 9.08 K/9 3.70 BB/9 12.2 FB/HR 3.95 FIP
And if Rodon continues to hover about with a FIP near 4, he won't say in the rotation.

'No use' is harsh because 5th starters are worth $10 million on the open market these days. So if nothing else, you can run him out there to eat up 180 innings and be generally passable for a hell of a lot less than you'd spend on the open market.

But being a warm body isn't exactly high praise.
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Old 01-10-2017, 12:06 PM   #1211
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His K rate ranks just ahead of: Verlander, Rodon, Smyly, David Price, Hamels, Arrieta and Lester. (His BB rate is obv worse). FG actually has an article (LINK) today on Karns suggesting his fastball spin rate declined precipitously when he got hurt last year.

If he can get healthy and if he can get his FB to useful value, he will provide value. I suspect he'll end up in the pen either way. For 1 year of a fourth OF, seems like a no brainer trade.
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Old 01-10-2017, 12:10 PM   #1212
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Travis Kelce is the Eric Hosmer for the Chiefs

Eric Hosmer is my favorite Royal I think he is the coolest dude on Planet Earth.
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Old 01-10-2017, 12:12 PM   #1213
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Karns key is getting his control back to what it was in 2015 and early in 2016.

He strikes out enough hitters to be a quality no 3/4 starter if his walk rate is in the low to mid 3s/9.

Eiland has had pretty good success with that profile.


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Old 01-10-2017, 12:12 PM   #1214
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Travis Kelce is the Eric Hosmer for the Chiefs

Eric Hosmer is my favorite Royal I think he is the coolest dude on Planet Earth.
Nah.

Travis Kelce is actually as good as his reputation.
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Old 01-10-2017, 12:15 PM   #1215
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Originally Posted by DJ's left nut View Post
Nah.

Travis Kelce is actually as good as his reputation.
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This latest murder in no way represents Islam.
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Prison Bitch is obviously part of the inner Circle.Prison Bitch is obviously part of the inner Circle.Prison Bitch is obviously part of the inner Circle.Prison Bitch is obviously part of the inner Circle.Prison Bitch is obviously part of the inner Circle.Prison Bitch is obviously part of the inner Circle.Prison Bitch is obviously part of the inner Circle.Prison Bitch is obviously part of the inner Circle.Prison Bitch is obviously part of the inner Circle.Prison Bitch is obviously part of the inner Circle.Prison Bitch is obviously part of the inner Circle.
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