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Old 11-03-2016, 09:11 PM  
duncan_idaho duncan_idaho is offline
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*** Official 2017 Royals Offseason Repository ***

The reign is over. Time to begin the quest for the next one.

Interesting offseason opens for the Royals. Will they go all in for one last shot with this crew? Will they re-tool for 2018 and beyond? Will Dayton Moore actually decrease payroll this time?

Trades, free agent signings, rumors, plans, proposals... dump 'em all here, for this is... the offseason repository!

Royals Top Prospects, 2017

This is a list that’s going to seem a little bleak initially, as Raul Mondesi got enough ABs to age out of the prospect rankings (just barely – at 135 ABs, he is not rookie eligible). But that said, I like the talent and feel like this is a system that will actually be underrated by the prospect services.

Spoiler!

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Old 01-10-2017, 03:41 PM   #1231
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Hes indisputably overrated, but you're the one who argues against defensive metrics, which are a major drag on his WAR totals. He does have very good clutch numbers too, so by WPA the past two seasons, he's 9th right behind Encarnacion and ahead of Belt, Carlos Santana, Jose Abreu etc. (And #2 in "clutch")
Over what period? I see him being in the 15 range (depending on whether or not you want to count someone like Carpenter, Encarnacion or Napoli as 1b). And remember, WAR tends to drag down all 1b equally because they get a sizeable negative positional adjustment regardless of whether or not they man that position competently.

Though I'm actually pretty surprised to see that the defensive numbers are as poor as they are. I generally just took it on faith that he was a good defensive 1b. That said, as you've noted, I don't trust defensive metrics and they're especially unreliable over a single season (really need about 3 years to get a decent sample for most of them). I suspect Hosmer's actually a pretty good defensive 1b, dWAR be damned.

Baseball reference was harder still on him, giving him an oWAR behind Pujols, and Pujols is ass these days. His WPA was behind Brandon Moss and you know how I feel about Brandon Moss. It seems like you're cherry picking quite a bit here.

The guy's just not been what he was supposed to be. Your hope has to be that he combines the all around offensive performance he had in 2015 with the power he found in 2016 and makes the same leap that Freddie Freeman made last season.

But 3,700 PAs is a long way into a career for a light to suddenly turn on. Generally, you are the guy you appear to be by that point.

Personally, I would still bank on Moustakas having a better career, though the risk seems far greater given his injury issues and Hosmer's relative durability. I'm a big fan of Moose.
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Old 01-10-2017, 03:47 PM   #1232
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Over what period? I see him being in the 15 range (depending on whether or not you want to count someone like Carpenter, Encarnacion or Napoli as 1b).
Past 2 seasons. Past 4 seasons, he's #10 in WPA and #3 in clutch. For whatever reason, he really does perform when it matters most.


Quote:
And remember, WAR tends to drag down all 1b equally because they get a sizeable negative positional adjustment regardless of whether or not they man that position competently.

Though I'm actually pretty surprised to see that the defensive numbers are as poor as they are. I generally just took it on faith that he was a good defensive 1b. That said, as you've noted, I don't trust defensive metrics and they're especially unreliable over a single season (really need about 3 years to get a decent sample for most of them). I suspect Hosmer's actually a pretty good defensive 1b, dWAR be damned.
Been litigated here before so I won't rehash, all depends on one's belief (or lack thereof) in defensive metrics.


Quote:
Baseball reference was harder still on him, giving him an oWAR behind Pujols, and Pujols is ass these days. His WPA was behind Brandon Moss and you know how I feel about Brandon Moss. It seems like you're cherry picking quite a bit here.

The guy's just not been what he was supposed to be. Your hope has to be that he combines the all around offensive performance he had in 2015 with the power he found in 2016 and makes the same leap that Freddie Freeman made last season.

But 3,700 PAs is a long way into a career for a light to suddenly turn on. Generally, you are the guy you appear to be by that point.
I agreed he's overrated and he should be a much, much better hitter than he is. He does seem to have an every-other-year thing going tho with 2013 and 2015 being quite good, 2014 + 2016 being crap.

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Personally, I would still bank on Moustakas having a better career, though the risk seems far greater given his injury issues and Hosmer's relative durability. I'm a big fan of Moose.
Correct. I've got Moose at 30 jacks this season, and would be my #1 (and probably only) priority for extension.
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Old 01-10-2017, 04:28 PM   #1233
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Hosmer is going to have a monster year this year. Looking for that big pay day.
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Old 01-10-2017, 05:27 PM   #1234
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The thing with Hosmer is that his swing is so complicated, he has had a hard time avoiding the massive funk for a month or two every season.

If he could make those slumps a week instead of a month, you'd have a guy whose production enters the territory his reputation would seem to suggest (.320/.400/.500 is possible for him).

I agree Moustakas will have a better career long-term than Hosmer.

His swing is much more simple and he doesn't have the extreme GB tendencies Hosmer does.

I don't really consider Moustakas to be a major injury risk... he tore his ACL in a freak collision. Other than that, his broken thumb (also a bit of a fluke) is the only time I remember him hitting the DL.

If I'm KC, I plan to let Hosmer walk after this year and focus on keeping Moustakas. He's more affordable, more likely to stay, and going to age better.


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Old 01-10-2017, 05:41 PM   #1235
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I'm a big Hosmer fan but he's definitely over-rated. He's good but definitely not top, superstar type play.
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Old 01-10-2017, 05:53 PM   #1236
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Old 01-10-2017, 06:05 PM   #1237
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Should the Royals consider getting Micah Johnson? Can play of/2b has alot of speed but no bat dodgers DFA him

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Old 01-10-2017, 06:46 PM   #1238
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I read an article on the KC Star asking if Eric Hosmer was the best 1b in MLB.

Eric Hosmer is arguably the 4th best 1b in the AL Central, 5th best if you count Encarnacion.

That's what I mean. Hosmer is a fine baseball player who's made a single All-Star game in a year where he put up a WAR of 1.0. In that World Series you claim he kicked ass in he managed an OPS below .500.

I would say that Eric Hosmer is the modern day Mark Grace but that does Mark Grace a pretty massive disservice. He's the modern day Wally Joyner.

That's a good baseball player but c'mon, the hype the guy gets is unreal.
I think Hosmer is going to get some huge FA contract offers.

He saves a lot of errors on throws to first base even if your advanced metrics question his range.

And, he would have better offensive stats if he tried harder to have a consistent approach. But, that may be why he has been so clutch in the postseason. He is more focused and makes adjustments when the stakes are higher.

This is supposed to be the era of drug testing and less PEDs, if MLB really has cracked down on amphetamines, you might be better off being a super talent that just plays without always trying to maximize stats. 162 games is a long season.

Anyway, Hosmer is likely to get paid one of the biggest MLB contracts next year no matter what you and the advanced metrics say.

And none of the 1st Baseman that do not get paid as much as him will have much to say about it.
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Old 01-10-2017, 06:49 PM   #1239
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Let's see what Hosmer is all about...last year of contract and all. I bet he nails it. We'll see.
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Old 01-10-2017, 06:52 PM   #1240
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Jason Heyward was always destined to get paid and the team that gave him the money was destined to regret it.

I'm not arguing whether or not Hosmer's gonna make bank - he will. Guys that hit FA prior to 28 always have the mystery of youth. GMs are sure the can take a young player with a pedigree and solid production and coach them up into the next superstar.

It just rarely happens. I can't think of a guy that signed a big money deal THEN turned the corner. Paying for youth is a bad idea when the production doesn't match the price. Yet teams will continue to do it.

And again - I like Hosmer, to a point. I just think any expectations that he's going to be an MVP candidate are based on little more than blind faith. And any assertions that he's a premier 1b are overstated.

He can be a contributor on a champion (obviously). But he's not a guy that's going to anchor said champion and that's seemingly the air that some folks want to place him in.
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Old 01-10-2017, 07:01 PM   #1241
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Hosmer has was so huge in both playoff runs. And he's become the vocal leader of this team. He's streaky as can be, but I'm not going to chop him down. He might get a huge contract just based on his playoff performance alone.
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Old 01-10-2017, 07:39 PM   #1242
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I think Hosmer is going to get some huge FA contract offers.

He saves a lot of errors on throws to first base even if your advanced metrics question his range.

And, he would have better offensive stats if he tried harder to have a consistent approach. But, that may be why he has been so clutch in the postseason. He is more focused and makes adjustments when the stakes are higher.

This is supposed to be the era of drug testing and less PEDs, if MLB really has cracked down on amphetamines, you might be better off being a super talent that just plays without always trying to maximize stats. 162 games is a long season.

Anyway, Hosmer is likely to get paid one of the biggest MLB contracts next year no matter what you and the advanced metrics say.

And none of the 1st Baseman that do not get paid as much as him will have much to say about it.
Advanced metrics are on the rise for a reason. They weren't just created out of thin air and are being followed blindly. Every MLB player plays a 162 game season. It's a long season for everybody, he doesn't have it any harder than anyone else. Hos just has never been able to put together a full "162". It's really that simple. Conveniently, as been said, he shines in the most critical of times. Though, I think it's silly to believe that Hos is just deciding to "turn it on" when he wants.
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Old 01-10-2017, 07:45 PM   #1243
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Should the Royals consider getting Micah Johnson? Can play of/2b has alot of speed but no bat dodgers DFA him

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Man, that seems like a decent chance to take.
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Old 01-10-2017, 08:04 PM   #1244
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Hos hasn't markedly improved since his rookie season, but if there was a swag and team chemistry metric, Hos would be in the top three in the league.

He has the tools to be a superstar. His power, when he connects, is monstrous. When he's on, he plays like a generational superstar.

However, he has significant holes in both sides of his game that he's never filled since his rookie year. He's been able to hide these issues that his incredible talent (relying on his quick hands over practicing fundamental D, relying on quick reactions over shortening his swing), and these holes are going to start becoming more and more detrimental with age. We already saw a noticeable regression in his defense last season.

With that said. Eric ****ing Hosmer was instrumental in our championship and was a cornerstone piece in the revival of the team and the locker room, that smile and hairdo came to symbolize the revival of our freaking city.

I'll always love Hos, even when he's hitting 3 bouncer singles with the Dodgers in 2018. He brought a superstar persona to the Royals and became a face for the entire city to get behind (along with Salvy) and it will always be appreciated.
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Old 01-10-2017, 08:13 PM   #1245
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Oh well I don't care how over~hype over~rated Hosmer is he is my favorite Royal probably till eternity. He can strike out next 30ab and I will still love him for what I've seen him do as a Royal.


Haters gonna hate that's ok. He is a team player. His teammates love him he rallies the Royals back to victory when they are down I don't know what more can ask out of a player? He is fun to watch and helps Royals win that's what I care about.


I'm sure their are better 1B but they didn't win a WS for the Royals so I don't give two shits about them.


Hosmer Perez Gordon Moose the bull pen they are Baseball Gods to me.

I really don't get the hate on the guy all he's done is help the Royals win a WS. Ungrateful unappreciated fans.
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