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Old 11-03-2016, 09:11 PM  
duncan_idaho duncan_idaho is offline
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*** Official 2017 Royals Offseason Repository ***

The reign is over. Time to begin the quest for the next one.

Interesting offseason opens for the Royals. Will they go all in for one last shot with this crew? Will they re-tool for 2018 and beyond? Will Dayton Moore actually decrease payroll this time?

Trades, free agent signings, rumors, plans, proposals... dump 'em all here, for this is... the offseason repository!

Royals Top Prospects, 2017

This is a list that’s going to seem a little bleak initially, as Raul Mondesi got enough ABs to age out of the prospect rankings (just barely – at 135 ABs, he is not rookie eligible). But that said, I like the talent and feel like this is a system that will actually be underrated by the prospect services.

Format: POS/Name/2017 Projected Final Level

1) 3B/OF Hunter Dozier, MLB. Dozier bounced back from a disastrous 2015 campaign that had many wondering, myself included, if he was wrecked. His strong offensive performance in 2016 saw Dozier recapture the mature approach that many liked coming up, while also starting to tap into his above-average raw power for the first time.

In addition to his success at the plate, Dozier also proved he could at least HANDLE an OF spot, which could put him in the conversation for 2017 playing time at the major leagues. If the Royals DO end up trading Cheslor Cuthbert, Dozier could find a decent amount of MLB playing time sliding between RF and 3B. With Moustakas recovering from knee surgery, he likely will need more regular breaks from the field. And the streaky Paulo Orlando is just not an intriguing short-side platoon partner for Jarrod Dyson.

2) LHP Matt Strahm, MLB. Strahm just barely skates under the rookie eligibility rules for a pitcher, so he can be included here. Royals fans already got a taste of the lefty’s abilities, as he used his above-average fastball and slurve to dominate out of the pen in 2016. For him to translate that dominance to the rotation, Strahm will need to maintain his velocity (92-94) and continue to improve a changeup that flashed average at times.

If the changeup becomes a weapon he can lean on against righties, Strahm could be a very solid mid-rotation starter and fringe ToR/No. 2 type (think Danny Duffy-lite).

3) RHP Josh Staumont, AAA. This one could blow up on me and look really silly by this time next year, but I’m encouraged by what we saw from Staumont late last year. He showed significantly improved control down the stretch for Northwest Arkansas, including some impressive playoff starts, while maintaining the big-time K ability. That trend continued in the Arizona Fall League.

If Staumont’s control holds, the Royals have a guy with a plus fastball, plus-plus curve, and average change (with a slider that could develop into a real weapon as he matures). He’ll start next season at AAA and could be an addition to the MLB bullpen or even the rotation before the season ends.

4) RF Jorge Bonifacio, AAA. Boni, like Dozier, had a bounceback season in 2016 with the bat, and also played 15-20 pounds lighter than the year before, which added some nice defensive utility according to reports I’ve gotten. He now looks like a guy could provide solid/average RF production in the major leagues… Average defense paired with potential to put up a .275/.335/.450 line. While that’s not all-star level, it IS playable. Especially at pre-arbitration dollars. He’ll get another year in Omaha to refine his approach, and likely be in the mix of a 2018 mini-youth movement… unless moved for MLB reinforcements.

5) C Meibrys Viloria, Low-A (Lexington). I haven’t seen him in person, but I like the pedigree. You’ve got a lefthanded hitting catcher with the defensive ability to stick behind the plate. He was a big-bonus guy out of Colombia (nearly $500k). And his offensive performance has been highly impressive early, with a good combination of power, plate discipline, and contact skills.

He’s forever away from the majors, just now clearing rookie ball, but Viloria is the most exciting prospect KC has had at Idaho Falls since someone on this board was gushing about a 16-year-old SS tearing it up.

6) 1B Ryan O’Hearn, AAA. O’Hearn is a guy who has never gotten a lot of hype from scouts, but he continues to be a strong producer. He’s someone who likely will strikeout about 25 percent of the time at the big-league level, but has the ability to be a .500+ SLG guy. That plays. He also has shown good patience at the plate, posting above-average OBPs at every level.

Bold prediction: I won’t be shocked if O’Hearn takes over at 1B for KC in 2018/2019 and provides similar offensive production to Hosmer out of the gate. He’s probably never going to be a consistent plus average (.290+) hitter, but .270 with 25 HR is something within reach for him. He’ll get his first shot at AAA in 2017.

7) RHP AJ Puckett, A+. Puckett is a high floor, low-ceiling guy who performed about as you’d expect in 2016 after being the Royals’ first pick in the 2016 Rule IV Draft. He’s not flashy, but Puckett does profile as a solid potential back-end starter. Good fastball command and an above-average changeup are his calling cards. If Puckett finds a reliable breaking ball to put batters away, this could tick up. Great athlete, very similar to Jake Odorizzi in that regard.

8) RF Khalil Lee, Low-A (Lexington). Lee was a two-way player in HS and many viewed him as a pitcher first as a pro, but the Royals drafted him as an OF and were reward with a strong debut campaign. Lee is not a big guy, but he produced solid power numbers despite that. He’s a dynamic athlete who could contribute with power and speed.

9) C Chase Vallot, High-A (Wilmington). Vallot has an intriguing bat, with plus raw power. Got off to a great start in 16 before being sidelined and then sidetracked by injury. RH bat may be good enough to push him out from behind the plate, where he has good tools but a long way to go.

10) RHP Jake Junis and RHP Alec Mills (AAA). I'm copping out here and including both at No. 10 because they're so similar. Like Puckett, they each project as a serviceable back of rotation starter. Similar stuff and profiles, though Junis has shown a little better strikeout ability and may have a smidge more upside as a result.

Others of note:

SS/CF Marten Gasparini. Production has been bad for this toolsy player, but Gasparini has speed and pop that jump out at you. At only 19, need to be patient with him... this European signee was even less polished when signing at 16 than the typical Latin America prospect.

OF Seuly Matias. Loud, loud tools. Matias profiles as a classic RF... big-time power potential. He's a long ways from the majors but is one of the Royals' biggest bonus babies from LA.

RHP Ashe Russell. 2014 1st rounder saw his velocity disappear last year and was quickly shut down. He's intriguing one way or the other, even if he ends up as another notch in the belt of the TINSTAAPP saying.

2B Corey Toups. O'Hearn's HS teammate has been an above-average producer for an up-the-middle player. His small stature hides a surprising amount of pop. Could turn into a Mark Grudzielanek type of offensive second baseman at his peak - solid average, lots of 2Bs.

RHP Scott Blewett, LHP Foster Griffin, RHP Nolan Watson - all three have underwhelmed as pros but were drafted in the supplemental round. Stuff and projectability for each is a positive. Wouldn't be surprised to see one of them take a Cody Reed-like step forward this season and crack the 50-75 range on prospect lists. They all have the natural ability.

SS/2B Ricky Aracena - Jose Altuve-sized Aracena is a switch hitting middle infielder who can flat out run. Switch hitter with a good approach.

RHP Pedro Fernandez - I'm still a believer in his stuff, even if he is destined for the pen. Was having a nice 2016 start until injuries derailed him right after his promotion to AA.

Sirs not Appearing in this Prospect List:

RHP Kyle Zimmer. Same story, different year. The Royals are hopeful they FINALLY found the cause of Zimmer's achy shoulder. If they really did, and he can stay healthy, the talent/potential is exciting.

OF Bubba Starling. Never trust a guy named Derek.

Last edited by duncan_idaho; 11-03-2016 at 09:38 PM..
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Old 01-10-2017, 03:41 PM   #1231
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Hes indisputably overrated, but you're the one who argues against defensive metrics, which are a major drag on his WAR totals. He does have very good clutch numbers too, so by WPA the past two seasons, he's 9th right behind Encarnacion and ahead of Belt, Carlos Santana, Jose Abreu etc. (And #2 in "clutch")
Over what period? I see him being in the 15 range (depending on whether or not you want to count someone like Carpenter, Encarnacion or Napoli as 1b). And remember, WAR tends to drag down all 1b equally because they get a sizeable negative positional adjustment regardless of whether or not they man that position competently.

Though I'm actually pretty surprised to see that the defensive numbers are as poor as they are. I generally just took it on faith that he was a good defensive 1b. That said, as you've noted, I don't trust defensive metrics and they're especially unreliable over a single season (really need about 3 years to get a decent sample for most of them). I suspect Hosmer's actually a pretty good defensive 1b, dWAR be damned.

Baseball reference was harder still on him, giving him an oWAR behind Pujols, and Pujols is ass these days. His WPA was behind Brandon Moss and you know how I feel about Brandon Moss. It seems like you're cherry picking quite a bit here.

The guy's just not been what he was supposed to be. Your hope has to be that he combines the all around offensive performance he had in 2015 with the power he found in 2016 and makes the same leap that Freddie Freeman made last season.

But 3,700 PAs is a long way into a career for a light to suddenly turn on. Generally, you are the guy you appear to be by that point.

Personally, I would still bank on Moustakas having a better career, though the risk seems far greater given his injury issues and Hosmer's relative durability. I'm a big fan of Moose.
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Old 01-10-2017, 03:47 PM   #1232
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Over what period? I see him being in the 15 range (depending on whether or not you want to count someone like Carpenter, Encarnacion or Napoli as 1b).
Past 2 seasons. Past 4 seasons, he's #10 in WPA and #3 in clutch. For whatever reason, he really does perform when it matters most.


Quote:
And remember, WAR tends to drag down all 1b equally because they get a sizeable negative positional adjustment regardless of whether or not they man that position competently.

Though I'm actually pretty surprised to see that the defensive numbers are as poor as they are. I generally just took it on faith that he was a good defensive 1b. That said, as you've noted, I don't trust defensive metrics and they're especially unreliable over a single season (really need about 3 years to get a decent sample for most of them). I suspect Hosmer's actually a pretty good defensive 1b, dWAR be damned.
Been litigated here before so I won't rehash, all depends on one's belief (or lack thereof) in defensive metrics.


Quote:
Baseball reference was harder still on him, giving him an oWAR behind Pujols, and Pujols is ass these days. His WPA was behind Brandon Moss and you know how I feel about Brandon Moss. It seems like you're cherry picking quite a bit here.

The guy's just not been what he was supposed to be. Your hope has to be that he combines the all around offensive performance he had in 2015 with the power he found in 2016 and makes the same leap that Freddie Freeman made last season.

But 3,700 PAs is a long way into a career for a light to suddenly turn on. Generally, you are the guy you appear to be by that point.
I agreed he's overrated and he should be a much, much better hitter than he is. He does seem to have an every-other-year thing going tho with 2013 and 2015 being quite good, 2014 + 2016 being crap.

Quote:
Personally, I would still bank on Moustakas having a better career, though the risk seems far greater given his injury issues and Hosmer's relative durability. I'm a big fan of Moose.
Correct. I've got Moose at 30 jacks this season, and would be my #1 (and probably only) priority for extension.
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Old 01-10-2017, 04:28 PM   #1233
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Hosmer is going to have a monster year this year. Looking for that big pay day.
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Old 01-10-2017, 05:27 PM   #1234
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The thing with Hosmer is that his swing is so complicated, he has had a hard time avoiding the massive funk for a month or two every season.

If he could make those slumps a week instead of a month, you'd have a guy whose production enters the territory his reputation would seem to suggest (.320/.400/.500 is possible for him).

I agree Moustakas will have a better career long-term than Hosmer.

His swing is much more simple and he doesn't have the extreme GB tendencies Hosmer does.

I don't really consider Moustakas to be a major injury risk... he tore his ACL in a freak collision. Other than that, his broken thumb (also a bit of a fluke) is the only time I remember him hitting the DL.

If I'm KC, I plan to let Hosmer walk after this year and focus on keeping Moustakas. He's more affordable, more likely to stay, and going to age better.


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Old 01-10-2017, 05:41 PM   #1235
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I'm a big Hosmer fan but he's definitely over-rated. He's good but definitely not top, superstar type play.
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Old 01-10-2017, 05:53 PM   #1236
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Old 01-10-2017, 06:05 PM   #1237
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Should the Royals consider getting Micah Johnson? Can play of/2b has alot of speed but no bat dodgers DFA him

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Old 01-10-2017, 06:46 PM   #1238
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I read an article on the KC Star asking if Eric Hosmer was the best 1b in MLB.

Eric Hosmer is arguably the 4th best 1b in the AL Central, 5th best if you count Encarnacion.

That's what I mean. Hosmer is a fine baseball player who's made a single All-Star game in a year where he put up a WAR of 1.0. In that World Series you claim he kicked ass in he managed an OPS below .500.

I would say that Eric Hosmer is the modern day Mark Grace but that does Mark Grace a pretty massive disservice. He's the modern day Wally Joyner.

That's a good baseball player but c'mon, the hype the guy gets is unreal.
I think Hosmer is going to get some huge FA contract offers.

He saves a lot of errors on throws to first base even if your advanced metrics question his range.

And, he would have better offensive stats if he tried harder to have a consistent approach. But, that may be why he has been so clutch in the postseason. He is more focused and makes adjustments when the stakes are higher.

This is supposed to be the era of drug testing and less PEDs, if MLB really has cracked down on amphetamines, you might be better off being a super talent that just plays without always trying to maximize stats. 162 games is a long season.

Anyway, Hosmer is likely to get paid one of the biggest MLB contracts next year no matter what you and the advanced metrics say.

And none of the 1st Baseman that do not get paid as much as him will have much to say about it.
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Old 01-10-2017, 06:49 PM   #1239
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Let's see what Hosmer is all about...last year of contract and all. I bet he nails it. We'll see.
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Old 01-10-2017, 06:52 PM   #1240
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Jason Heyward was always destined to get paid and the team that gave him the money was destined to regret it.

I'm not arguing whether or not Hosmer's gonna make bank - he will. Guys that hit FA prior to 28 always have the mystery of youth. GMs are sure the can take a young player with a pedigree and solid production and coach them up into the next superstar.

It just rarely happens. I can't think of a guy that signed a big money deal THEN turned the corner. Paying for youth is a bad idea when the production doesn't match the price. Yet teams will continue to do it.

And again - I like Hosmer, to a point. I just think any expectations that he's going to be an MVP candidate are based on little more than blind faith. And any assertions that he's a premier 1b are overstated.

He can be a contributor on a champion (obviously). But he's not a guy that's going to anchor said champion and that's seemingly the air that some folks want to place him in.
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Old 01-10-2017, 07:01 PM   #1241
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Hosmer has was so huge in both playoff runs. And he's become the vocal leader of this team. He's streaky as can be, but I'm not going to chop him down. He might get a huge contract just based on his playoff performance alone.
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Old 01-10-2017, 07:39 PM   #1242
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I think Hosmer is going to get some huge FA contract offers.

He saves a lot of errors on throws to first base even if your advanced metrics question his range.

And, he would have better offensive stats if he tried harder to have a consistent approach. But, that may be why he has been so clutch in the postseason. He is more focused and makes adjustments when the stakes are higher.

This is supposed to be the era of drug testing and less PEDs, if MLB really has cracked down on amphetamines, you might be better off being a super talent that just plays without always trying to maximize stats. 162 games is a long season.

Anyway, Hosmer is likely to get paid one of the biggest MLB contracts next year no matter what you and the advanced metrics say.

And none of the 1st Baseman that do not get paid as much as him will have much to say about it.
Advanced metrics are on the rise for a reason. They weren't just created out of thin air and are being followed blindly. Every MLB player plays a 162 game season. It's a long season for everybody, he doesn't have it any harder than anyone else. Hos just has never been able to put together a full "162". It's really that simple. Conveniently, as been said, he shines in the most critical of times. Though, I think it's silly to believe that Hos is just deciding to "turn it on" when he wants.
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Old 01-10-2017, 07:45 PM   #1243
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Should the Royals consider getting Micah Johnson? Can play of/2b has alot of speed but no bat dodgers DFA him

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Man, that seems like a decent chance to take.
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Old 01-10-2017, 08:04 PM   #1244
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Hos hasn't markedly improved since his rookie season, but if there was a swag and team chemistry metric, Hos would be in the top three in the league.

He has the tools to be a superstar. His power, when he connects, is monstrous. When he's on, he plays like a generational superstar.

However, he has significant holes in both sides of his game that he's never filled since his rookie year. He's been able to hide these issues that his incredible talent (relying on his quick hands over practicing fundamental D, relying on quick reactions over shortening his swing), and these holes are going to start becoming more and more detrimental with age. We already saw a noticeable regression in his defense last season.

With that said. Eric ****ing Hosmer was instrumental in our championship and was a cornerstone piece in the revival of the team and the locker room, that smile and hairdo came to symbolize the revival of our freaking city.

I'll always love Hos, even when he's hitting 3 bouncer singles with the Dodgers in 2018. He brought a superstar persona to the Royals and became a face for the entire city to get behind (along with Salvy) and it will always be appreciated.
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Old 01-10-2017, 08:13 PM   #1245
KC Tattoo KC Tattoo is offline
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Oh well I don't care how over~hype over~rated Hosmer is he is my favorite Royal probably till eternity. He can strike out next 30ab and I will still love him for what I've seen him do as a Royal.


Haters gonna hate that's ok. He is a team player. His teammates love him he rallies the Royals back to victory when they are down I don't know what more can ask out of a player? He is fun to watch and helps Royals win that's what I care about.


I'm sure their are better 1B but they didn't win a WS for the Royals so I don't give two shits about them.


Hosmer Perez Gordon Moose the bull pen they are Baseball Gods to me.

I really don't get the hate on the guy all he's done is help the Royals win a WS. Ungrateful unappreciated fans.
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