Fair value for Bowe: 5 years, 58m, 20m guaranteed.

[Hammock Parties]

Per this very insightful breakdown.

http://overthecap.com/estimating-the...r-dwayne-bowe/

It's long but here's the meat:

Comparable Players

Most likely Bowe has two players in mind when looking for a new deal- Vincent Jackson and DeSean Jackson, who both signed new contracts in 2012. I also want to look at the performance of two older players, Brandon Marshall and Andre Johnson, who both signed new contracts back in 2010. The table below compares the 3 year averages of each player prior to their extension:

These are 3 year averages for D. Jackson and Bowe but only 2 year averages for V. Jackson since he held out all but 5 games of the 2010 season.

The numbers are adjusted for games missed to not inflate the performance of the others on the team when the player in question was injured.

Now we can see how favorably Bowe compares to Jackson. Bowe was a more valuable player to the Chiefs than Jackson was to the Chargers and perhaps that is why the Chiefs are rumored to now want to keep him in the fold.

I think the most striking stat is the interception rate which pointed to Jackson seeing a lot of passes attempted for him getting picked off compared to Bowe. These numbers tell me that Bowe is a clear number 1 and was doing some pretty impressive things in Kansas City with almost no talent around him.

Based on the comparative performance I am going to push and say on average Bowe is worth about 9.5% more than Jackson, which is pretty much the upper bound of his deal. That would equate to a deal worth a little below $12.2 million a year.

Now I don’t think that will happen. Based on the same analysis Vincent was about 33% more valuable than DeSean but overall his deal ended up 14.5% higher in APY. Using the same adjustment Bowe should earn a realistic deal worth 4.2% more than Jackson, equating to about $11.58 million a season.

[the Talking Can]

Originally Posted by Rugby Thompson

he's always with birdman and that crew

i wouldn't be surprised if he was doing more then weed to you, you guys don't get the kind of lives some of these high up rappers live..

cocaine, the strongest weed, MDMA, sipping codeine, importing women, the list goes on.

i wouldn't be surprised if he free bases and spends the off season doing drive bys...

[BossChief]

Originally Posted by Rugby Thompson

he's always with birdman and that crew

i wouldn't be surprised if he was doing more then weed to you, you guys don't get the kind of lives some of these high up rappers live..

cocaine, the strongest weed, MDMA, sipping codeine, importing women, the list goes on.

Go fist your grandmother.

[Rugby Thompson]

Originally Posted by BossChief

His intent was to appear cool to be part of something like that...without thinking the consequences through first. He should have zipped his lips about it.

I chalk the whole thing up to immaturity and think he has learned quite a bit since then. Like I've said over and over, I'd sign him tomorrow if the price is only 5/60 with 25 guaranteed. Shit, I'd be fine with him getting more than that and have said as much since this time last year.

I would sign him too but never to Fitzgerald money or even Vincent Jackson money.

[the Talking Can]

Originally Posted by Rugby Thompson

Bowe looks high in every pic, the only guy that was able to straighten him out was Haley and even that didn't last long.

HE HAS MOTIVATION ISSUES, bottom line and it's because of the drugs. How can you guys be so naive and blind to that fact?

you are an incredible ****ing dumb ass...just incredible

just pretend he's white, then you'll have no problem with him

[BossChief]

Originally Posted by the Talking Can

you are an incredible ****ing dumb ass...just incredible

just pretend he's white, then you'll have no problem with him

Exactly.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by BossChief

His intent was to appear cool to be part of something like that...without thinking the consequences through first. He should have zipped his lips about it.

I chalk the whole thing up to immaturity and think he has learned quite a bit since then. Like I've said over and over, I'd sign him tomorrow if the price is only 5/60 with 25 guaranteed. Shit, I'd be fine with him getting more than that and have said as much since this time last year.

ABSOLUTELY AGREE.

Incredibly stupid. What happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas.

[Rugby Thompson]

Originally Posted by the Talking Can

you are an incredible ****ing dumb ass...just incredible

just pretend he's white, then you'll have no problem with him

i don't have a problem with him but you're really gonna argue the fact that he doesn't have motivational issues?

[58-4ever]

Originally Posted by Rugby Thompson

I would sign him too but never to Fitzgerald money or even Vincent Jackson money.

A) Who gives a **** what you think.

B) Glad it's not your money or team because Bowe is certainly worth Jackson or better when it comes to money.

[58-4ever]

Originally Posted by Rugby Thompson

i don't have a problem with him but you're really gonna argue the fact that he doesn't have motivational issues?

I'd argue with that. Motivational issues? I've never seen him take plays off, ala Randy Moss, who has severe "motivational issues".

[Rugby Thompson]

Originally Posted by 58-4ever

A) Who gives a **** what you think.

B) Glad it's not your money or team because Bowe is certainly worth Jackson or better when it comes to money.

Look what Boldin's contract was when he got to the ravens, Bowe should get less then that..

oh are you gonna argue that Bowe is better then Boldin now cause he's not and Boldin should be getting a little bit less then Fitzgerald money.

[58-4ever]

Originally Posted by Rugby Thompson

Look what Boldin's contract was when he got to the ravens, Bowe should get less then that..

oh are you gonna argue that Bowe is better then Boldin now cause he's not and Boldin should be getting a little bit less then Fitzgerald money.

It's all relative. No one is going to get exactly what they are worth. This isn't a video game reerun. You pay what you have to in order to keep your homegrown talent. If that means we open up the pocketbook for Bowe, I don't really care. It's not my money and we will have plenty of cap space. Jesus, the stupidity of people like you amazes me.

[Rugby Thompson]

This is why they should have kept Pioli around as some sort of capoligist, look at the contracts he got done with Charles, that was such a steal.

[58-4ever]

Originally Posted by Rugby Thompson

This is why they should have kept ***** around as some sort of capoligist, look at the contracts he got done with Charles, that was such a steal.

Now you're trolling. It's not like Charles would have got a lot more on the open market. Running backs have 2 contracts anymore... tops.

[-King-]

Originally Posted by the Talking Can

attending the GQ super bowl party along with every other rich and famous person in town means what, to you?

**** that. Young, single, incredibly rich football players need to be sitting in their house 24/7. All that partying is the reason Bowe is always in legal trou...


Wait....

[KChiefer]

A shout-out to the color-coding of the bar graph. Very intuitive.

Anyways, No way Berry want's to match-up against him, Bowe's a stud.