Home Discord Chat
Go Back   ChiefsPlanet > Nzoner's Game Room

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 01-20-2013, 08:13 AM   Topic Starter
Mr. Laz Mr. Laz is offline
Don't Tease Me
 
Mr. Laz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: KS
Casino cash: $11047037
Geno Smith: A Tale in Accuracy

Geno Smith: A Tale in Accuracy
By JayhawksNChiefs on Jan 10, 4:04p 422

http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2013/1...le-in-accuracy

Justin K. Aller

I’m not going to sit here and say that I can predict the future, because I can’t. But I’m pretty sure what the talk on AP will be about for roughly the next three months. There will be an endless discussion (which will end in 3 months) on what the Chiefs are going to do with the number 1 overall pick in the 2013 NFL draft. While perusing through the limitless comments on AP, one voice prevails through the masses. That voice says, "Draft Geno Smith."

The numbers are impressive. In his career, Mr. Smith threw for 11,662 yards, tallied up 98 touchdowns to only 21 interceptions, and completed 67% of the passes that left his hand. But, many believe those impressive stats are a result of the system he played in. Short screen passes and two explosive receivers that warrant draft talk of their own undoubtedly could inflate any QBs success.

After going through the AP scouting process (YouTube), many can form their own opinion of what they like and don’t like. Depending on the observer, things like arm strength, footwork, poise, accuracy, release, and pocket awareness can all be discerned from prospect to prospect. Opinions are formed and debates ensue on exactly what each prospect can offer.

It was my attempt, in this post, to stray from this type of analysis. I wanted something more objective. You can show 10 different people tape of Geno throwing the ball and you will get 10 different opinions. Some may be similar, but all will vary in one degree or another.

Specifically, I wanted to tackle the debate on Geno’s accuracy. As stated earlier in the post, Geno has a very impressive career completion percentage, one that he was able to increase every year as a starter. Also stated earlier, this percentage is said to be due, in large part, to the short and "easy" passes that he was asked to make.

To explore this idea, I observed 8 games from Geno’s 2012 campaign. Those games were Texas, Texas Tech, Maryland, Baylor, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Iowa State, and Kansas. I used the YouTube videos of Geno Smith vs. insert opponent here in my research. The goal of this research was relatively simple. One comment in particular sparked the idea when a user stated that, "90% of his passes were screen passes." Well AP, were they?

I present the following chart:


via i1257.photobucket.com

As I watched the games, I charted where each completion and incompletion were in regard to the line of scrimmage. It didn’t matter where the receiver ended up, all that mattered is where he caught it or attempted to catch it. After completing 8 games and 300 throws, I felt I had an adequate and representative sample size.

The double lines running down the middle of the chart can pretty much be thought of as the hash marks on a football field. With the exception, for example, that sometimes the ball can be located on the right hash pre-snap and a pass will be completed with the receiver going over the middle. The receiver might catch it outside of the hash marks, but for all intents and purposes it was a pass over the middle. I thought this better represented the types of throws that he was either missing or hitting.
The “NLOS” (Near Line of Scrimmage) is any pass that is generally within 3 yards of the LOS (i.e. screens, swing passes, and maybe a few shallow drag routes). The “4 to 9” section refers to passes that were completed/attempted within 4 to 9 yards of the line of scrimmage (usually outs, ins, and slants). The farther up the chart you go, the farther the passes were from the LOS. From there, I think most get the idea.

To give an example on how to read the chart, the bottom left section describes that Geno completed 41 of 46 passes (89.1%) that were directed to his left and were near the line of scrimmage. The far right column gives totals for each “level.”
Interesting Notes:
  • Feel free to take all of the screens away from Geno’s game. He completed 131 out of 213 passes that were 4+ yards past the LOS for a completion percentage of 61.5%.
  • 28% of his pass attempts were NLOS, 33% were from the 4-9 range, and 24% were from 10-20 yards past the LOS.
  • 36% of his pass completions were NLOS (not quite 90%), 32% were from the 4-9 range, and 23% were from 10-20 yards past the LOS.
  • 42% of his passes were directed to the left side of the field.
  • Geno completed 18 out of 43 passes (42%) that were 21+ yards past the LOS.
  • Geno is deadly accurate over the middle, check out that middle column. He had 6 of 9 passes that were 31+ yards down field completed, impressive. Geno’s completion percentages in the left, middle, and right were 70%, 72%, and 66% respectively.
  • Cause for concern? Completing 10/21 for a 48% completion percentage on passes that were 10 – 20 yards downfield and on the right side of the field.
  • Reason for optimism? Completing 19/28 for a 68% completion percentage on passes that were 10 – 20 yards downfield and on the left side of the field.
These last two notes were of particular importance to myself when doing this evaluation. NFL quarterbacks are separated by what they can do 10 to 20 yards downfield and outside the numbers. I’ll give you a math problem. How far does a ball travel from a quarterback that drops back 5 yards from the LOS, throws it halfway across a football field that is 53 yards wide, and the ball travels 15 yards past the LOS? My buddy, Pythagoras, told me that 15 yard completion is actually about a 33 yard pass. Is he right?

The overall results of the research seem promising. Initially, I defined 15 parts of the field. I had 5 levels of the defense separated by 3 sections. Through my evaluation, Geno was able to effectively attack each of these 15 parts. Not all equally, but he made the defense account for the whole field. Do the screens inflate his completion percentage? Yes, but those passes are hardly a given… cough*Matt Cassel to Eric Weddle*cough. The percentage of those he completes is beyond impressive by itself (88%). And those passes can travel around 20 yards in the air, at times. The only way those plays work are to get the ball there very quickly and very accurately, which Geno does nearly robotically.

I was a Geno Smith fan before I put this together, and this did nothing but confirm my thoughts on him. I have nothing to compare these numbers to, so I’m thinking about doing a similar evaluation on a couple of the other quarterback prospects. In the end, I hope people find this interesting and can find a way to use this information in their own evaluations.

Posts: 95,626
Mr. Laz is obviously part of the inner Circle.Mr. Laz is obviously part of the inner Circle.Mr. Laz is obviously part of the inner Circle.Mr. Laz is obviously part of the inner Circle.Mr. Laz is obviously part of the inner Circle.Mr. Laz is obviously part of the inner Circle.Mr. Laz is obviously part of the inner Circle.Mr. Laz is obviously part of the inner Circle.Mr. Laz is obviously part of the inner Circle.Mr. Laz is obviously part of the inner Circle.Mr. Laz is obviously part of the inner Circle.
    Reply With Quote
Old 01-20-2013, 08:40 AM   #2
Bewbies Bewbies is offline
Ith Fuhtbawl Time
 
Bewbies's Avatar
 

Join Date: Apr 2010
Casino cash: $9999900
This joker only used 'highlight' videos/frankie
Posts: 10,085
Bewbies 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.Bewbies 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.Bewbies 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.Bewbies 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.Bewbies 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.Bewbies 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.Bewbies 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.Bewbies 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.Bewbies 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.Bewbies 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.Bewbies 's phone was tapped by Scott Pioli.
    Reply With Quote
Old 01-20-2013, 08:56 AM   #3
Mizzou_8541 Mizzou_8541 is offline
Starter
 
Mizzou_8541's Avatar
 

Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Kansas City, MO
Casino cash: $2857473
Good stuff, thanks for posting.
Posts: 517
Mizzou_8541 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Mizzou_8541 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Mizzou_8541 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Mizzou_8541 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Mizzou_8541 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Mizzou_8541 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Mizzou_8541 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Mizzou_8541 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Mizzou_8541 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Mizzou_8541 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.Mizzou_8541 is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.
    Reply With Quote
Old 01-20-2013, 08:54 AM   #4
farmerchief farmerchief is offline
Field General
 
farmerchief's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Freeport,Ks
Casino cash: $2515067
Great work Laz, and very interesting reading! It would be neat to see the same type of analysis, with Wilson, Glennon, and a few others.
Posts: 2,294
farmerchief is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.farmerchief is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.farmerchief is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.farmerchief is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.farmerchief is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.farmerchief is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.farmerchief is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.farmerchief is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.farmerchief is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.farmerchief is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.farmerchief is blessed with 50/50 Hindsight.
    Reply With Quote
Old 01-20-2013, 09:01 AM   #5
the Talking Can the Talking Can is offline
Supporter
 
the Talking Can's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: street
Casino cash: $10022208
most impressive from that, imo, is his accuracy in the 10-20 range

and he throws almost as many in that range as as any other
__________________
Clark Hunt: "Thank god for the Dominican pool boy"
Posts: 51,585
the Talking Can is obviously part of the inner Circle.the Talking Can is obviously part of the inner Circle.the Talking Can is obviously part of the inner Circle.the Talking Can is obviously part of the inner Circle.the Talking Can is obviously part of the inner Circle.the Talking Can is obviously part of the inner Circle.the Talking Can is obviously part of the inner Circle.the Talking Can is obviously part of the inner Circle.the Talking Can is obviously part of the inner Circle.the Talking Can is obviously part of the inner Circle.the Talking Can is obviously part of the inner Circle.
    Reply With Quote
Old 01-20-2013, 09:07 AM   #6
Mr_Tomahawk Mr_Tomahawk is offline
Prestige Worldwide
 
Mr_Tomahawk's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Spring Hill, KS
Casino cash: $3350526
Q

http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showp...postcount=8996
__________________
Adopt-A-Chief: John Dorsey
Posts: 18,361
Mr_Tomahawk is obviously part of the inner Circle.Mr_Tomahawk is obviously part of the inner Circle.Mr_Tomahawk is obviously part of the inner Circle.Mr_Tomahawk is obviously part of the inner Circle.Mr_Tomahawk is obviously part of the inner Circle.Mr_Tomahawk is obviously part of the inner Circle.Mr_Tomahawk is obviously part of the inner Circle.Mr_Tomahawk is obviously part of the inner Circle.Mr_Tomahawk is obviously part of the inner Circle.Mr_Tomahawk is obviously part of the inner Circle.Mr_Tomahawk is obviously part of the inner Circle.
    Reply With Quote
Old 01-20-2013, 09:09 AM   #7
mlyonsd mlyonsd is offline
Supporter
 

Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Spink, SD
Casino cash: $1983762
Somebody email this to Dorsey and Reid.
Posts: 38,822
mlyonsd is obviously part of the inner Circle.mlyonsd is obviously part of the inner Circle.mlyonsd is obviously part of the inner Circle.mlyonsd is obviously part of the inner Circle.mlyonsd is obviously part of the inner Circle.mlyonsd is obviously part of the inner Circle.mlyonsd is obviously part of the inner Circle.mlyonsd is obviously part of the inner Circle.mlyonsd is obviously part of the inner Circle.mlyonsd is obviously part of the inner Circle.mlyonsd is obviously part of the inner Circle.
    Reply With Quote
Old 01-20-2013, 09:11 AM   #8
Pasta Little Brioni Pasta Little Brioni is offline
Consuming CP souls
 

Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: U.S.A.
Casino cash: $4288880
Would like to see that compared to other guys that had NFL success, but it does pwn people that say he only can dink and dunk.

Thanks for posting Laz.
__________________
****Official TFWdemB Trivia Commisioner****
Posts: 68,019
Pasta Little Brioni is obviously part of the inner Circle.Pasta Little Brioni is obviously part of the inner Circle.Pasta Little Brioni is obviously part of the inner Circle.Pasta Little Brioni is obviously part of the inner Circle.Pasta Little Brioni is obviously part of the inner Circle.Pasta Little Brioni is obviously part of the inner Circle.Pasta Little Brioni is obviously part of the inner Circle.Pasta Little Brioni is obviously part of the inner Circle.Pasta Little Brioni is obviously part of the inner Circle.Pasta Little Brioni is obviously part of the inner Circle.Pasta Little Brioni is obviously part of the inner Circle.
    Reply With Quote
Old 01-20-2013, 09:28 AM   #9
Rasputin Rasputin is offline
Tip of the hat LIV Champs
 
Rasputin's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: ks
Casino cash: $3755421
Quote:
Originally Posted by PGM View Post
Would like to see that compared to other guys that had NFL success, but it does pwn people that say he only can dink and dunk.

Thanks for posting Laz.
Holy shit. Seriously people think he only dinks & dunks? That's just ****ing crazy. Just watch his games, don't need stats to back em up. He can throw the ball deep with accuracy, he can make all the throws in the NFL level.

He passes the eyeball test.
Posts: 54,937
Rasputin is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rasputin is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rasputin is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rasputin is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rasputin is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rasputin is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rasputin is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rasputin is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rasputin is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rasputin is obviously part of the inner Circle.Rasputin is obviously part of the inner Circle.
    Reply With Quote
Old 01-20-2013, 10:03 AM   #10
Pasta Little Brioni Pasta Little Brioni is offline
Consuming CP souls
 

Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: U.S.A.
Casino cash: $4288880
Quote:
Originally Posted by KC Tattoo View Post
Holy shit. Seriously people think he only dinks & dunks? That's just ****ing crazy. Just watch his games, don't need stats to back em up. He can throw the ball deep with accuracy, he can make all the throws in the NFL level.

He passes the eyeball test.
Yeah, some morons thinks he gets all his yards off of YAC.
__________________
****Official TFWdemB Trivia Commisioner****
Posts: 68,019
Pasta Little Brioni is obviously part of the inner Circle.Pasta Little Brioni is obviously part of the inner Circle.Pasta Little Brioni is obviously part of the inner Circle.Pasta Little Brioni is obviously part of the inner Circle.Pasta Little Brioni is obviously part of the inner Circle.Pasta Little Brioni is obviously part of the inner Circle.Pasta Little Brioni is obviously part of the inner Circle.Pasta Little Brioni is obviously part of the inner Circle.Pasta Little Brioni is obviously part of the inner Circle.Pasta Little Brioni is obviously part of the inner Circle.Pasta Little Brioni is obviously part of the inner Circle.
    Reply With Quote
Old 01-20-2013, 10:22 AM   #11
Molitoth Molitoth is offline
Mahomes Fanboi
 
Molitoth's Avatar
 

Join Date: Apr 2004
Casino cash: $3234969
Quote:
Originally Posted by PGM View Post
Yeah, some morons thinks he gets all his yards off of YAC.
Even IF Geno got the majority of his stats via YAC (which is a really inaccurate arguement),... isn't the QB's job to get the ball to his playmakers and avoid turning the ball over? Seems to me he is highly accurate at getting the ball to his receivers.... in turn his receivers JOB is to catch the ball and get YAC.

Did Jerry Rice not inflate Steve Young's numbers? Lots of quick slants there went for tons of YAC.
Posts: 19,459
Molitoth is obviously part of the inner Circle.Molitoth is obviously part of the inner Circle.Molitoth is obviously part of the inner Circle.Molitoth is obviously part of the inner Circle.Molitoth is obviously part of the inner Circle.Molitoth is obviously part of the inner Circle.Molitoth is obviously part of the inner Circle.Molitoth is obviously part of the inner Circle.Molitoth is obviously part of the inner Circle.Molitoth is obviously part of the inner Circle.Molitoth is obviously part of the inner Circle.
    Reply With Quote
Old 01-20-2013, 10:41 AM   #12
Mr. Laz Mr. Laz is offline
Don't Tease Me
 
Mr. Laz's Avatar
 

Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: KS
Casino cash: $11047037
Quote:
Originally Posted by Molitoth View Post
Even IF Geno got the majority of his stats via YAC (which is a really inaccurate arguement),... isn't the QB's job to get the ball to his playmakers and avoid turning the ball over? Seems to me he is highly accurate at getting the ball to his receivers.... in turn his receivers JOB is to catch the ball and get YAC.

Did Jerry Rice not inflate Steve Young's numbers? Lots of quick slants there went for tons of YAC.
yes, but it also leaves the heavy lifting to the receiver and scheme leaving people to wonder how good the QB really is. Eventually it will lead to defenses to crowd the LOS scrimmage and potentially hurt the running game.

Scheme can help, elusive WR's can help but a QB generally has to stretch the defense vertically to have a consistent offense.
__________________
Posts: 95,626
Mr. Laz is obviously part of the inner Circle.Mr. Laz is obviously part of the inner Circle.Mr. Laz is obviously part of the inner Circle.Mr. Laz is obviously part of the inner Circle.Mr. Laz is obviously part of the inner Circle.Mr. Laz is obviously part of the inner Circle.Mr. Laz is obviously part of the inner Circle.Mr. Laz is obviously part of the inner Circle.Mr. Laz is obviously part of the inner Circle.Mr. Laz is obviously part of the inner Circle.Mr. Laz is obviously part of the inner Circle.
    Reply With Quote
Old 01-20-2013, 11:51 AM   #13
Bump Bump is offline
YOU take YOUR seat
 
Bump's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2007
Casino cash: $2545105
Quote:
Originally Posted by PGM View Post
Yeah, some morons thinks he gets all his yards off of YAC.
I know right, don't you wanna just bitch slap those idiots.
__________________
Posts: 32,033
Bump is obviously part of the inner Circle.Bump is obviously part of the inner Circle.Bump is obviously part of the inner Circle.Bump is obviously part of the inner Circle.Bump is obviously part of the inner Circle.Bump is obviously part of the inner Circle.Bump is obviously part of the inner Circle.Bump is obviously part of the inner Circle.Bump is obviously part of the inner Circle.Bump is obviously part of the inner Circle.Bump is obviously part of the inner Circle.
    Reply With Quote
Old 01-20-2013, 10:07 AM   #14
ArrowheadMagic ArrowheadMagic is offline
Veteran
 
ArrowheadMagic's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: OPKS
Casino cash: $8223465
Quote:
Originally Posted by PGM View Post
Would like to see that compared to other guys that had NFL success, but it does pwn people that say he only can dink and dunk.

Thanks for posting Laz.

That would be an ass load of research, but interesting to see.
Posts: 3,851
ArrowheadMagic has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.ArrowheadMagic has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.ArrowheadMagic has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.ArrowheadMagic has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.ArrowheadMagic has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.ArrowheadMagic has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.ArrowheadMagic has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.ArrowheadMagic has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.ArrowheadMagic has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.ArrowheadMagic has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.ArrowheadMagic has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.
    Reply With Quote
Old 01-20-2013, 11:12 AM   #15
RINGLEADER RINGLEADER is offline
In Search of a Life
 
RINGLEADER's Avatar
 

Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Confusion, USA
Casino cash: $8660503
It's not rocket science. Defenses choked up on the Chiefs withe Cassel and Quinn behind center because they couldn't throw the ball with any accuracy beyond 5 yards (and even then it was a question mark). If you don't have to defend downfield it makes it a lot easier to bottle up the rushing game and defend the short routes. It makes Charles' rushing numbers that much more impressive.

You bring Geno (or any competent QB) into this offense and you're going to see success the second you loosen up defenses and make them respect the throws that these numbers show Geno can make.

Just my $.02.
Posts: 46,666
RINGLEADER has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.RINGLEADER has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.RINGLEADER has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.RINGLEADER has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.RINGLEADER has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.RINGLEADER has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.RINGLEADER has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.RINGLEADER has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.RINGLEADER has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.RINGLEADER has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.RINGLEADER has parlayed a career as a truck driver into debt free trailer and jon boat ownership.
    Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump




All times are GMT -6. The time now is 03:59 AM.


This is a test for a client's site.
Fort Worth Texas Process Servers
Covering Arlington, Fort Worth, Grand Prairie and surrounding communities.
Tarrant County, Texas and Johnson County, Texas.
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.