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Old 08-10-2007, 11:21 AM  
morphius morphius is offline
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Global Warming: Interesting change in climate numbers from NASA

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My earlier column this week detailed the work of a volunteer team to assess problems with US temperature data used for climate modeling. One of these people is Steve McIntyre, who operates the site climateaudit.org. While inspecting historical temperature graphs, he noticed a strange discontinuity, or "jump" in many locations, all occurring around the time of January, 2000.

These graphs were created by NASA's Reto Ruedy and James Hansen (who shot to fame when he accused the administration of trying to censor his views on climate change). Hansen refused to provide McKintyre with the algorithm used to generate graph data, so McKintyre reverse-engineered it. The result appeared to be a Y2K bug in the handling of the raw data.

McKintyre notified the pair of the bug; Ruedy replied and acknowledged the problem as an "oversight" that would be fixed in the next data refresh.

NASA has now silently released corrected figures, and the changes are truly astounding. The warmest year on record is now 1934. 1998 (long trumpeted by the media as record-breaking) moves to second place. 1921 takes third. In fact, 5 of the 10 warmest years on record now all occur before World War II. Anthony Watts has put the new data in chart form, along with a more detailed summary of the events.

The effect of the correction on global temperatures is minor (some 1-2% less warming than originally thought), but the effect on the US global warming propaganda machine could be huge.

Then again-- maybe not. I strongly suspect this story will receive little to no attention from the mainstream media.

An nice summary here: http://www.norcalblogs.com/watts/200...ttest_yea.html
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...
Four of the top 10 years of US CONUS high temperature deviations are now from the 1930s: 1934, 1931, 1938 and 1939, while only 3 of the top 10 are from the last 10 years (1998, 2006, 1999). Several years (2000, 2002, 2003, 2004) fell well down the leaderboard, behind even 1900. (World rankings of temperature are calculated separately.)
...
I salute the work of Steven McIntyre, he has now made two major contributions to climate science.
1) Proving how the Mann "hockey stick" used in all Gore's movie, An Inconvenient Truth, was based on unsupportable data and methods.
2) Proving how yearly temperature anomalies for the USA are based on data that had been processed incorrectly.
Interesting stuff.
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Old 08-11-2007, 10:52 AM   #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ultra Peanut
Looks like I might have been wrong in my justification for why I'd hold off on taking this story as gospel. At least slightly.
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Old 08-11-2007, 02:09 PM   #32
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Originally Posted by Ultra Peanut
I'd still be interested in how long we have been monitoring the arctic and anartic, "where we are seeing the biggest change", if it has been since the 70's, which I would assume as reasonable, then we are comparing one of the coldest decades to some of the warmer, which would seem to skew numbers. Throw in how many places we now measure, that we were not in the early 1900's.
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Old 08-11-2007, 02:48 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by UP
However, there is clearly a latent and deeply felt wish in some sectors for the whole problem of global warming to be reduced to a statistical quirk or a mistake.
Absolutely.
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Old 08-12-2007, 09:59 AM   #34
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Originally Posted by banyon
Absolutely.
However, there is clearly a latent and deeply felt wish in some sectors for the whole problem of global warming to be reduced to ONLY human impact.
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Old 08-12-2007, 01:06 PM   #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by morphius
However, there is clearly a latent and deeply felt wish in some sectors for the whole problem of global warming to be reduced to ONLY human impact.
For my part, I don't really care about the impact we have on GW, I'm a lot more concerned with the impact on us and what we can do about it.
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Old 08-12-2007, 04:07 PM   #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by banyon
For my part, I don't really care about the impact we have on GW, I'm a lot more concerned with the impact on us and what we can do about it.
I'd prefer not to make the Earth unlivable, and I look forward to getting away from the oil companies, middle eastern and Venezuelan oil. Some day we will get things better.

Of course I'm a fan of electric cars, and possible diesel/bio-diesel hybrids.
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Old 08-13-2007, 02:35 AM   #37
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Look, I'm all for saving the environment and all that jazz, but there's no reason to go overboard with any measures designed to combat something that hasn't been proven we're the ones causing.
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Old 08-13-2007, 04:16 AM   #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Silock
Look, I'm all for saving the environment and all that jazz, but there's no reason to go overboard with any measures designed to combat something that hasn't been proven we're the ones causing.
Does it really matter if we are the ones causing it?

Let's say we haven't caused any of it. Do we just just let it happen without any course of action and hope for the best?
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Old 08-13-2007, 04:51 AM   #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Saggysack
Does it really matter if we are the ones causing it?

Let's say we haven't caused any of it. Do we just just let it happen without any course of action and hope for the best?
Yes, it matters if we're the ones causing it or not. If we caused it, then hopefully we could reverse it. If we didn't cause it, then anything we do would be an exercise in futility.

I'm all for saving the rainforests and finding alternatives to burning coal and oil -- fine and dandy with me. But there's no reason to go overboard about anything right now.
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Old 08-13-2007, 04:59 AM   #40
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Originally Posted by Silock
Yes, it matters if we're the ones causing it or not. If we caused it, then hopefully we could reverse it. If we didn't cause it, then anything we do would be an exercise in futility.

I'm all for saving the rainforests and finding alternatives to burning coal and oil -- fine and dandy with me. But there's no reason to go overboard about anything right now.
Then why build earthquake resistant structures? We can't stop earthquakes from happening. Why clear brush in forests to prevent major forest fires then?

I think it is a silly stance to take that just because we might not be ones causing a problem that we should just sit by and watch it happen.
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Old 08-13-2007, 01:41 PM   #41
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Originally Posted by Saggysack
Then why build earthquake resistant structures? We can't stop earthquakes from happening. Why clear brush in forests to prevent major forest fires then?

I think it is a silly stance to take that just because we might not be ones causing a problem that we should just sit by and watch it happen.
I never said we should do anything of the sort. But what's going on today is the equivalent of telling everyone to build a nuclear fallout shelter in their backyard just because someone, somewhere has a bomb.
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Old 08-13-2007, 01:45 PM   #42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Silock
I never said we should do anything of the sort. But what's going on today is the equivalent of telling everyone to build a nuclear fallout shelter in their backyard just because someone, somewhere has a bomb.
Not really because we are in a position of ignorance about the extent of the imperilment as well. For your analogy to be apt, it would be "there is a situation somewhere in between somebody somewhere has a bomb, and 1000 mexicans with nukes in their backpacks are crossing the border in a month."
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Old 08-13-2007, 02:15 PM   #43
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Quote:
Originally Posted by banyon
Not really because we are in a position of ignorance about the extent of the imperilment as well. For your analogy to be apt, it would be "there is a situation somewhere in between somebody somewhere has a bomb, and 1000 mexicans with nukes in their backpacks are crossing the border in a month."
Either way, you get the idea
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