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Old 11-03-2016, 09:11 PM  
duncan_idaho duncan_idaho is offline
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*** Official 2017 Royals Offseason Repository ***

The reign is over. Time to begin the quest for the next one.

Interesting offseason opens for the Royals. Will they go all in for one last shot with this crew? Will they re-tool for 2018 and beyond? Will Dayton Moore actually decrease payroll this time?

Trades, free agent signings, rumors, plans, proposals... dump 'em all here, for this is... the offseason repository!

Royals Top Prospects, 2017

This is a list that’s going to seem a little bleak initially, as Raul Mondesi got enough ABs to age out of the prospect rankings (just barely – at 135 ABs, he is not rookie eligible). But that said, I like the talent and feel like this is a system that will actually be underrated by the prospect services.

Format: POS/Name/2017 Projected Final Level

1) 3B/OF Hunter Dozier, MLB. Dozier bounced back from a disastrous 2015 campaign that had many wondering, myself included, if he was wrecked. His strong offensive performance in 2016 saw Dozier recapture the mature approach that many liked coming up, while also starting to tap into his above-average raw power for the first time.

In addition to his success at the plate, Dozier also proved he could at least HANDLE an OF spot, which could put him in the conversation for 2017 playing time at the major leagues. If the Royals DO end up trading Cheslor Cuthbert, Dozier could find a decent amount of MLB playing time sliding between RF and 3B. With Moustakas recovering from knee surgery, he likely will need more regular breaks from the field. And the streaky Paulo Orlando is just not an intriguing short-side platoon partner for Jarrod Dyson.

2) LHP Matt Strahm, MLB. Strahm just barely skates under the rookie eligibility rules for a pitcher, so he can be included here. Royals fans already got a taste of the lefty’s abilities, as he used his above-average fastball and slurve to dominate out of the pen in 2016. For him to translate that dominance to the rotation, Strahm will need to maintain his velocity (92-94) and continue to improve a changeup that flashed average at times.

If the changeup becomes a weapon he can lean on against righties, Strahm could be a very solid mid-rotation starter and fringe ToR/No. 2 type (think Danny Duffy-lite).

3) RHP Josh Staumont, AAA. This one could blow up on me and look really silly by this time next year, but I’m encouraged by what we saw from Staumont late last year. He showed significantly improved control down the stretch for Northwest Arkansas, including some impressive playoff starts, while maintaining the big-time K ability. That trend continued in the Arizona Fall League.

If Staumont’s control holds, the Royals have a guy with a plus fastball, plus-plus curve, and average change (with a slider that could develop into a real weapon as he matures). He’ll start next season at AAA and could be an addition to the MLB bullpen or even the rotation before the season ends.

4) RF Jorge Bonifacio, AAA. Boni, like Dozier, had a bounceback season in 2016 with the bat, and also played 15-20 pounds lighter than the year before, which added some nice defensive utility according to reports I’ve gotten. He now looks like a guy could provide solid/average RF production in the major leagues… Average defense paired with potential to put up a .275/.335/.450 line. While that’s not all-star level, it IS playable. Especially at pre-arbitration dollars. He’ll get another year in Omaha to refine his approach, and likely be in the mix of a 2018 mini-youth movement… unless moved for MLB reinforcements.

5) C Meibrys Viloria, Low-A (Lexington). I haven’t seen him in person, but I like the pedigree. You’ve got a lefthanded hitting catcher with the defensive ability to stick behind the plate. He was a big-bonus guy out of Colombia (nearly $500k). And his offensive performance has been highly impressive early, with a good combination of power, plate discipline, and contact skills.

He’s forever away from the majors, just now clearing rookie ball, but Viloria is the most exciting prospect KC has had at Idaho Falls since someone on this board was gushing about a 16-year-old SS tearing it up.

6) 1B Ryan O’Hearn, AAA. O’Hearn is a guy who has never gotten a lot of hype from scouts, but he continues to be a strong producer. He’s someone who likely will strikeout about 25 percent of the time at the big-league level, but has the ability to be a .500+ SLG guy. That plays. He also has shown good patience at the plate, posting above-average OBPs at every level.

Bold prediction: I won’t be shocked if O’Hearn takes over at 1B for KC in 2018/2019 and provides similar offensive production to Hosmer out of the gate. He’s probably never going to be a consistent plus average (.290+) hitter, but .270 with 25 HR is something within reach for him. He’ll get his first shot at AAA in 2017.

7) RHP AJ Puckett, A+. Puckett is a high floor, low-ceiling guy who performed about as you’d expect in 2016 after being the Royals’ first pick in the 2016 Rule IV Draft. He’s not flashy, but Puckett does profile as a solid potential back-end starter. Good fastball command and an above-average changeup are his calling cards. If Puckett finds a reliable breaking ball to put batters away, this could tick up. Great athlete, very similar to Jake Odorizzi in that regard.

8) RF Khalil Lee, Low-A (Lexington). Lee was a two-way player in HS and many viewed him as a pitcher first as a pro, but the Royals drafted him as an OF and were reward with a strong debut campaign. Lee is not a big guy, but he produced solid power numbers despite that. He’s a dynamic athlete who could contribute with power and speed.

9) C Chase Vallot, High-A (Wilmington). Vallot has an intriguing bat, with plus raw power. Got off to a great start in 16 before being sidelined and then sidetracked by injury. RH bat may be good enough to push him out from behind the plate, where he has good tools but a long way to go.

10) RHP Jake Junis and RHP Alec Mills (AAA). I'm copping out here and including both at No. 10 because they're so similar. Like Puckett, they each project as a serviceable back of rotation starter. Similar stuff and profiles, though Junis has shown a little better strikeout ability and may have a smidge more upside as a result.

Others of note:

SS/CF Marten Gasparini. Production has been bad for this toolsy player, but Gasparini has speed and pop that jump out at you. At only 19, need to be patient with him... this European signee was even less polished when signing at 16 than the typical Latin America prospect.

OF Seuly Matias. Loud, loud tools. Matias profiles as a classic RF... big-time power potential. He's a long ways from the majors but is one of the Royals' biggest bonus babies from LA.

RHP Ashe Russell. 2014 1st rounder saw his velocity disappear last year and was quickly shut down. He's intriguing one way or the other, even if he ends up as another notch in the belt of the TINSTAAPP saying.

2B Corey Toups. O'Hearn's HS teammate has been an above-average producer for an up-the-middle player. His small stature hides a surprising amount of pop. Could turn into a Mark Grudzielanek type of offensive second baseman at his peak - solid average, lots of 2Bs.

RHP Scott Blewett, LHP Foster Griffin, RHP Nolan Watson - all three have underwhelmed as pros but were drafted in the supplemental round. Stuff and projectability for each is a positive. Wouldn't be surprised to see one of them take a Cody Reed-like step forward this season and crack the 50-75 range on prospect lists. They all have the natural ability.

SS/2B Ricky Aracena - Jose Altuve-sized Aracena is a switch hitting middle infielder who can flat out run. Switch hitter with a good approach.

RHP Pedro Fernandez - I'm still a believer in his stuff, even if he is destined for the pen. Was having a nice 2016 start until injuries derailed him right after his promotion to AA.

Sirs not Appearing in this Prospect List:

RHP Kyle Zimmer. Same story, different year. The Royals are hopeful they FINALLY found the cause of Zimmer's achy shoulder. If they really did, and he can stay healthy, the talent/potential is exciting.

OF Bubba Starling. Never trust a guy named Derek.

Last edited by duncan_idaho; 11-03-2016 at 09:38 PM..
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Old 11-04-2016, 01:51 PM   #31
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Old 11-04-2016, 01:56 PM   #32
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I just saw this too. I'm kind of torn on how to feel about it actually. I like them both but I think both positions could be improved.
I am skeptical we'll be able to replace Morales' power, but I'd love to be proven wrong.
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Old 11-04-2016, 02:03 PM   #33
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I am skeptical we'll be able to replace Morales' power, but I'd love to be proven wrong.
I know what you mean. Those blasts he had in Minnesota this year were amazing.
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Old 11-04-2016, 02:06 PM   #34
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Is there a site that has all the free agents listed for every team?
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Old 11-04-2016, 02:18 PM   #35
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Old 11-04-2016, 02:21 PM   #36
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Old 11-04-2016, 03:00 PM   #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ArrowheadMagic View Post
Samir Duenez??

I had comments about him, apparently I failed to copy-paste accurately. I'll add when I'm at a computer I can access the forum on.

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Originally Posted by Buehler445 View Post
So was Kendry's deal 2 years? Is that what I'm remembering?







Even the Cleveland dudes are hammering the MLB.

Two years with a mutual option for year 3; he declined his half and is a FA.

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Yes. This pleases me.

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Better have a TJ clause in it. Duffy had the surgery in 2012 and the average recurrence happens within 5 years, slating him at having another this next year.



http://www.si.com/mlb/2015/04/21/tom...nn-matt-harvey

As of last year, only 18 guys in the past decade and only 39 total had needed a revision, according to SI. Hopefully Duffy avoids those fates.

The guy who did his, Lew Yocun, is dead, but I don't think he's the surgeon who did Brandon Beachy, Medlen, and Corey Luebke's failed first runs at TJ.

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Is there a site that has all the free agents listed for every team?

MLB trade rumors lists it by position, not sure you can filter by team in one spot.



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Old 11-04-2016, 03:18 PM   #38
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I'm prob more worried about the money than the odds. Example: let's suppose you sign Kris Medlen and there's a 50% chance he doesn't pitch for you. 10M x 50% = $5M expected loss. Or Holland at say 2/14: 50% chance you'll lose $7M.


The same odds for Duffy incur a massive 25M loss. I suppose the counter is you'll get a shitload of value for him the time he DOES play. And if he survives most of that time, you really come out ahead.


Strasburg and Harvey having issues this year really would worry me. They are young guys his age.
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Old 11-04-2016, 04:44 PM   #39
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I would take Duffy for 5 years 45m all damn day long to the bank if it is structured right
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I'm just saying there's all sorts of shit i could be doing! I could watch a movie, play a video game, rub one out, read a book, learn a foreign language, etc.. But i'm still watching the assholes because i love them, and I hate myself
- On watching the Royals.
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Old 11-04-2016, 09:28 PM   #40
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Duncan/PB, are wRC values already presented with the exclusion of pitchers from the calculation? Or do you have to compile that separately?

For example, when calculating batting runs...

Batting Runs = wRAA + (lgR/PA – (PF*lgR/PA))*PA + (lgR/PA – (AL or NL non-pitcher wRC/PA))*PA

....is AL non-pitcher wRC for 2016 just simply 11008/91672 = .12 from this link? (wRC/PA)
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...ter=&players=0

Last edited by C3HIEF3S; 11-04-2016 at 09:36 PM..
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Old 11-04-2016, 09:42 PM   #41
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Old 11-04-2016, 11:36 PM   #42
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I hope they ink Eric Hosmer for a long term deal I would love that. Eric Hosmer is a stud.


I think Venura is going start maturing and have more control this year as long as he listens to Perez and pitching coaches. I think he will be our Ace in the pocket.
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Old 11-05-2016, 01:22 AM   #43
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Old 11-05-2016, 01:29 AM   #44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by C3HIEF3S View Post
Duncan/PB, are wRC values already presented with the exclusion of pitchers from the calculation? Or do you have to compile that separately?

For example, when calculating batting runs...

Batting Runs = wRAA + (lgR/PA – (PF*lgR/PA))*PA + (lgR/PA – (AL or NL non-pitcher wRC/PA))*PA

....is AL non-pitcher wRC for 2016 just simply 11008/91672 = .12 from this link? (wRC/PA)
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...ter=&players=0
Never mind, I figured it out. For shits and gigs, I calculated Eric Hosmer's 2016 fWAR by hand. Fangraphs has him at -.2. My final figure came out to be -.1895 which is most likely just rounding errors if I had to guess. It was a fun way to see the inside of this stat.

As you can see, I took a shortcut when it came to BsR (part b on my sheet). Didn't feel like working the formulas for lgwSB (b2) and runCS (b3) when UBR, wSB, and wGDP were all right in front of me on Fangraphs. But for the most part, here is everything that goes into fWAR (I think):



...is it March yet?
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Old 11-05-2016, 02:19 AM   #45
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