Chiefs Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012 - Page 20

**cdcox** · 03:26 PM

nfl-forecast.com is back for another season.

After Week 3
As of the moment, the Chiefs odds of making the playoffs are 10%.

The distribution of potential wins and draft picks will be shown in my next post.

Unfortunately, this season is shaping up to be a classic case of being Piolied by the Cassel maneuver.

Midway through Week 12

We have an 81% chance of getting the overall #1 pick.

We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time. If we beat Carolina and they lose out, we still get the #1 pick 75% of the time.

The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs.

Midway through week 13

As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick:

KC 55%
Jax 24%
Oakland 15%
Philly 4%
Field 2%

Midway through week 14

KC 55%
Jax 31%
Oakland 14%
Only 3 with decent odds.

Midway through week 15

KC 70%
Jac 30%
Oakland <<1%

KC guaranteed a top 3 spot

Midway through week 16

KC 92%
Jax 8%

Only way we don't get it is if we beat Denver and Jax loses to TN (barring ties).

**dirk digler** · 12-09-2012, 03:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning

We need to lose next week and we have this.

There is no way this team is beating Indy or Denver.

I agree unless the Donkeys don't have anything to play for and rest Manning

tk13 · 12-09-2012, 03:37 PM

That's what I figured.

Honestly either way this team is going to be in a position to draft a QB. But it'll be interesting to see if they shoot themselves in the foot for the #1 pick. You never know with the Raiders.

**notorious** · 12-09-2012, 03:37 PM

You guys are bad fans.

**notorious** · 12-09-2012, 03:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeezNutz

Edited for a fellow bad fan.

After dealing with Pioli, Crennel, and co. I would be doing myself a favor.

**DeezNutz** · 12-09-2012, 03:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by notorious

After dealing with Pioli, Crennel, and co. I would be doing myself a favor.

. Wanted to. Just couldn't.

**notorious** · 12-09-2012, 03:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeezNutz

. Wanted to. Just couldn't.

**cdcox** · 12-09-2012, 03:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dirk digler

I agree unless the Donkeys don't have anything to play for and rest Manning

Right now winning or losing in week 17 makes a 0.55 seed difference for Denver. I'm pretty sure their situation won't be solidified going into week 17.

**notorious** · 12-09-2012, 03:45 PM

I can see it now: Crennel puts his super-voodoo jinx on Manning again, we win in Donkland AND get the number 1 pick.

**cdcox** · 12-09-2012, 03:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by notorious

I can see it now: Crennel puts his super-voodoo jinx on Manning again, we win in Donkland AND get the number 1 pick.

I could live with that.

tk13 · 12-09-2012, 03:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox

Right now winning or losing in week 17 makes a 0.55 seed difference for Denver. I'm pretty sure their situation won't be solidified going into week 17.

Yeah, Baltimore's loss today might have sealed that. If the Ravens won today and then beat the Broncos next week... the Mannings would've had an uphill battle for a bye. Now they're right in the mix.

**dirk digler** · 12-09-2012, 03:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox

Right now winning or losing in week 17 makes a 0.55 seed difference for Denver. I'm pretty sure their situation won't be solidified going into week 17.

Thanks. Hope you are right I don't want the Chiefs lucking into any wins

Hammock Parties · 12-09-2012, 03:50 PM

Again: Isn't it really hard to win a road game when it's:

The 2nd straight road game.

On the opposite coast from last week's game?

Seems like there's some history behind teams usually losing in that circumstance.

**cdcox** · 12-09-2012, 03:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning

Again: Isn't it really hard to win a road game when it's:

The 2nd straight road game.

On the opposite coast from last week's game?

Seems like there's some history behind teams usually losing in that circumstance.

Road teams playing their second strait road game after losing the first cover the spread 55% of the time.

http://sportsgambling.about.com/od/nfl/a/nflroad.htm

aturnis · 12-09-2012, 03:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning

Again: Isn't it really hard to win a road game when it's:

The 2nd straight road game.

On the opposite coast from last week's game?

Seems like there's some history behind teams usually losing in that circumstance.

Yes.

Chiefs Pantalones · 12-09-2012, 03:56 PM

The first pick is all but ours. It is our destiny...

Chiefs concerned Dwayne Bowe may have two broken ribs.
— Jason La Canfora (@JasonLaCanfora)

09-26-2012, 08:12 PM
cdcox www.nfl-forecast.com Join Date: Sep 2000 Casino cash: $2421769	Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012 nfl-forecast.com is back for another season. After Week 3 As of the moment, the Chiefs odds of making the playoffs are 10%. The distribution of potential wins and draft picks will be shown in my next post. Unfortunately, this season is shaping up to be a classic case of being Piolied by the Cassel maneuver. Midway through Week 12 We have an 81% chance of getting the overall #1 pick. We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time. If we beat Carolina and they lose out, we still get the #1 pick 75% of the time. The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs. Midway through week 13 As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick: KC 55% Jax 24% Oakland 15% Philly 4% Field 2% Midway through week 14 KC 55% Jax 31% Oakland 14% Only 3 with decent odds. Midway through week 15 KC 70% Jac 30% Oakland <<1% KC guaranteed a top 3 spot Midway through week 16 KC 92% Jax 8% Only way we don't get it is if we beat Denver and Jax loses to TN (barring ties). Last edited by cdcox; 12-23-2012 at 03:26 PM..
Posts: 45,536

12-09-2012, 03:37 PM	#287
tk13 ... Join Date: Nov 2001 Casino cash: $2072500	That's what I figured. Honestly either way this team is going to be in a position to draft a QB. But it'll be interesting to see if they shoot themselves in the foot for the #1 pick. You never know with the Raiders.
Posts: 54,906

12-09-2012, 03:37 PM	#288
notorious Supporter Join Date: May 2005 Location: Who knows? Casino cash: $3015884	You guys are bad fans.
Posts: 83,208

12-09-2012, 03:45 PM	#293
notorious Supporter Join Date: May 2005 Location: Who knows? Casino cash: $3015884	I can see it now: Crennel puts his super-voodoo jinx on Manning again, we win in Donkland AND get the number 1 pick.
Posts: 83,208

12-09-2012, 03:50 PM	#297
Hammock Parties I'll be back. Join Date: Nov 2002 Casino cash: $4800478	Again: Isn't it really hard to win a road game when it's: The 2nd straight road game. On the opposite coast from last week's game? Seems like there's some history behind teams usually losing in that circumstance. __________________ Chiefs game films
Posts: 277,466

12-09-2012, 03:56 PM	#300
Chiefs Pantalones GO CHIEFS!!!!!! Join Date: Feb 2001 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $7938717	The first pick is all but ours. It is our destiny... Chiefs concerned Dwayne Bowe may have two broken ribs. — Jason La Canfora (@JasonLaCanfora) __________________ Don't be fooled by my username, I'm white.
Posts: 26,629