Does Alex Smith deserve a extension after this season?

[penbrook]

Does he deserve a extension to be our QB long term or do we take a chance on somebody else.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by HemiEd

If you are a Chiefs fan you have to accept the fact that is what they are going to do, or you will be miserable. The evidence is very clear, the pattern is plain as day.

Accept it -

As in jump on the bandwagon that it was the right thing to do.

I accept that is what is likely going to happen.

[The Bad Guy]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

So we're back to this shit again?

"Who cares if the guy sucks, it means are record will be bad and we'll get to draft another one!!!"

Or it means that we'd take Geno Smith and suck for another 5 years. And this is from someone that liked Geno.

How the hell can anyone, after experiencing the 3 years we just experienced, truly be in favor of falling back into that morass? Moreover, it's a shitload easier for us to say when it's not our careers that would waste away - tell that to Hali, Johnson, Flower and Charles - we owe it to those guys to field a competitive football team.

QBs like Wilson, Glennon and Foles are falling further in the draft and becoming more and more common. The idea that we should just keep throwing haymakers at the QB position and not give a shit if it leaves us winning 4 games/season until we finally get our guy (if we ever get our guy; many teams haven't) is just absurd.

I want to kiss you.

[HemiEd]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Accept it -

As in jump on the bandwagon that it was the right thing to do.

I accept that is what is likely going to happen.

No, not at all. I don't think it is the right thing to do, but I have accepted that is what they ARE GOING TO DO.

The record speaks for itself. In 53 years this team has not drafted and successfully developed a QB. They haven't really even tried in 30 years, and the excuses are clearly documented, even in your own posts.

This last draft was the clincher when they had the first pick, NOBODY was good enough, the only way out. Many think they were right, and we will see, but they aren't going to take a chance.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

That's not what I'm saying at all.

I'm saying:

1) Alex Smith can prove to ME (which doesn't mean shit, ultimately) and most other doubters that he deserves an extension by accomplishing a few things before the end of this season.

2) If he doesn't accomplish those things before the Chiefs' season ends, you don't have to automatically extend him right away. You can still go through the draft and FA and then work something out in training camp/before the start of the season if necessary.

EDIT:

And regarding... "HOw does drafting a QB in the first help us win..."

Maybe it doesn't in 2014. But if it helps you win big down the road, long-term, it's a good move. Respect the short-term and long-term pictures, right?

Depends on how.

If it helps us 'win big down the road' through putting us through 2-3 more seasons at 2-14 because we cast Smith aside and decided that Mettenberger/Logan/whatever was an NFL quarterback, that's not a good move. At that point it doesn't respect the short-term.

If it means that Mettenberger is a viable starting QB by 2015; works for me. Worst case scenario there is that he sits a year or two longer (the Rodgers route) and we have to trade Smith. If you build his deal around guaranteed salaries instead of signing bonuses, he has less trade value but he also becomes much easier to move from a salary cap standpoint.

There are ways to get Smith extended without hamstringing the organization long-term. You can do it while respective his efforts in this turnaround and committing to both him and the team - something that I think always plays well in locker rooms.

[Mr. Laz]

borderline

He must keep playing like he has the last 4 weeks for the rest of the year.

[BossChief]

If the route they take is re-signing Smith this offseason, I hope they are smart about it.

I don't care if they give the guy a 6 year deal worth 70 million, as long as its not etched in stone past the first two. There has to be an escape clause in case of injury/underperformance.

5.5 million (with a 15 million signing bonus) 1st year
7 the second
8 the third (with a roster bonus of around 3 million)
9 in the fourth
11 in the fifth
12 in the sixth

I could deal with something like that if he plays well in the postseason and we win AT LEAST ONE PLAYOFF GAME.

[BossChief]

Originally Posted by Pestilence

I don't even know if you draft a QB next year at all.

I think it would be a waste of resources to do so, at this point.

Unless a top guy drops to us at the end of the first (not gonna happen) we NEED to use that first on a receiver or safety. No second, so we are waiting towards the end of the third to swing again and the only way I take one there is if he was a guy Reid loves and he was in mid free fall.

Taking one after the third is a complete waste.

We have a competent starter right now in Alex and we also have a developmental quarterback in Bray and a vet in the 2 spot. I think the way Alex has played thus far has earned him the right to be the teams starter next year without much debate.

[The Franchise]

Originally Posted by BossChief

I think it would be a waste of resources to do so, at this point.

Unless a top guy drops to us at the end of the first (not gonna happen) we NEED to use that first on a receiver or safety. No second, so we are waiting towards the end of the third to swing again and the only way I take one there is if he was a guy Reid loves and he was in mid free fall.

Taking one after the third is a complete waste.

We have a competent starter right now in Alex and we also have a developmental quarterback in Bray and a vet in the 2 spot. I think the way Alex has played thus far has earned him the right to be the teams starter next year without much debate.

Pretty much my thoughts exactly.

[FringeNC]

Smith has averaged about 7 yards per pass since the O-line shake-up /(switch to ZBS?). Offense has been completely different. If Smith and the offense play at the level they have the last three weeks for the rest of the season, you make extending Smith the priority of the off-season.

Add some more weapons, and I can see Smith putting up big numbers next year, not just a decent/high QB rating.

We still don't have enough data points, but the last 3 weeks certainly suggest the Oline was the entirety of the problem on offense early in the season.

[BossChief]

I'd also like to point something out that might sway my opinion on the re-signing topic.

The jump Alex made between his first and second year under JH.

He went from completing 61% of his throws for 7.1 ypa and throwing 17 tds in 16 games in 2011 to completing over 70% at 8ypa and 13tds his second year in just over 8 games (he got the concussion in the 9th game around halftime iirc.)

That's HUGE improvement and Andy has talked multiple times about "using all those gigabytes" and how Alex is so much better once he is in the system for a year or two.

It's possible that we could get him signed to a reasonable deal this offseason, but that the price could o up DRASTICALLY next year if he comes out completing 70% of his throws while Andy has him throwing the ball 35 times per game.

Some simple math...

Alex has 460 attempts this year (a career high with 3 games to go) ...just over 35 attempts per game. If he has a similar amount of attempts next year and has a similar jump in effectiveness from year one to year two...

He would have 566 attempts
4,529 yards (566 x 8ypa)


1.0625 tds per game (17tds/16games) in 2011...1.529 tds per game (13tds/8.5 games) in 2012...that's a 56% increase in td performance.

Alex is currently at 1.385 tds per game in 2013...if you figure in the possible improvement in effectiveness that he showed in SF, that means he could see 2.16 tds per game in 2014...roughly 35 touchdown throws.

An Alex Smith throwing for over 4500 yards and 35 touchdowns while adding another 4-500 rushing yards and a couple scores there is gonna hard to get signed for anything less than what Stafford and Flacco got.

[Deberg_1990]

Originally Posted by HemiEd

This last draft was the clincher when they had the first pick, NOBODY was good enough, the only way out. Many think they were right, and we will see, but they aren't going to take a chance.

Do you really think there was a better option at QB this year than Alex Smith? EJ Manuel and Geno just were not good enough prospects to take that high. If it had been 2012, then yea.....Reid and Dorsey could be critiqued for passing on Luck and RGIII.
Posted via Mobile Device

[Rausch]

NO...

[Marcellus]

Too soon to tell. Let you know in about 4 weeks.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by BossChief

I'd also like to point something out that might sway my opinion on the re-signing topic.

The jump Alex made between his first and second year under JH.

...

That's HUGE improvement and Andy has talked multiple times about "using all those gigabytes" and how Alex is so much better once he is in the system for a year or two.

Remember Urban Meyer's take on him heading into the draft:

"It's going to be interesting in San Francisco," Meyer said. "Alex is an extremely quick learner. However, he's a guy that, until he understands it, he is nonfunctional. He is a guy that -- I keep hearing how Brett Favre kind of makes something out of nothing and is a person that runs around to make a play -- Alex Smith is not that kind of player. Alex Smith is a person that, once he is taught, has to learn it all. He might struggle early, but once he gets it, he gets it."

.......

"I'm going to be anxious to watch his development with the 49ers. Alex is so careful with the ball. His touchdown-to-interception ratio the last 2 years was phenomenal (47 touchdowns and seven interceptions). That's because, unless he knows exactly what's going on, he won't throw it. He won't just try to guess and take a shot. He has to know.

"That's why, early in his career, and early in our career with him at Utah, he was not an effective passer, because he really didn't understand. Once he understood, there was no one better. He learns quickly, though. But he's not a guy that you throw the ball out there and tell him, 'Go play.' He wants to know what is exactly expected of him and then he becomes a dynamite player.'

That's incredible candor from a previous head coach and I think that does a lot to support your overarching point.

There's a chance that the guy could get really expensive, really fast. And that's even if he just duplicates this season's numbers.

Honestly, if we had traded 2 seconds for Andy Dalton, I don't think people would be having this discussion; everyone would be demanding we re-sign him. Personally, I don't see any reason to suggest Dalton's a better QB than Smith.

[ThatRaceCardGuy]

Yes ..only because our options are shit.