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Old 11-03-2017, 01:51 PM  
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US Government Releases Climate Science Special Report (NCA4)

"No convincing alternative explanation."

Massive Government Report Says Climate Is Warming And Humans Are The Cause

It is "extremely likely" that human activities are the "dominant cause" of global warming, according to the most comprehensive study ever of climate science by U.S. government researchers.

The climate report, obtained by NPR, notes that the past 115 years are "the warmest in the history of modern civilization." The global average temperature has increased by about 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit over that period. Greenhouse gases from industry and agriculture are by far the biggest contributor to warming.

The findings contradict statements by President Trump and many of his Cabinet members, who have openly questioned the role humans play in changing the climate.

"I believe that measuring with precision human activity on the climate is something very challenging to do," EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt said in an interview earlier this year. "There's tremendous disagreement about the degree of impact."

That is not consistent with the conclusions of the 600-plus-page Climate Science Special Report, which is part of an even larger scientific review known as the fourth National Climate Assessment. The NCA4, as it's known, is the nation's most authoritative assessment of climate science. The report's authors include experts from leading scientific agencies, including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA and the Department of Energy, as well as academic scientists.

The report states that the global climate will continue to warm. How much, it says, "will depend primarily on the amount of greenhouse gases (especially carbon dioxide) emitted globally." Without major reductions in emissions, it says, the increase in annual average global temperature could reach 9 degrees Fahrenheit relative to pre-industrial times. Efforts to reduce emissions, it says, would slow the rate of warming.

"This is good, solid climate science," says Richard Alley, a geoscientist at Penn State University, who says he made minor contributions to the report's conclusions on sea level rise. "This has been reviewed so many times in so many ways, and it's taking what we know from ... a couple of centuries of climate science and applying it to the U.S."

The assessments are required by an act of Congress; the last one was published in 2014. Alley says this year's goes further in attributing changes in weather to the warming climate, especially weather extremes. "More heat waves and fewer cold snaps, this is very clear," he says. The report also notes that warmer temperatures have contributed to the rise in forest fires in the West and that the incidence of those fires is expected to keep rising.

Some of the clearest effects involve sea level rise. "Coastal flooding, you raise the mean level of the ocean, everything else equal you get more coastal flooding," Alley says. The report notes that sea level has risen 7 to 8 inches since 1900, and 3 inches of that occurred since 1993. The report says that rate is faster than during any century over the past 2,800 years.

The report also points out that heavy rainfall is increasing in intensity and frequency across the U.S., especially in the Northeast, and that is expected to keep increasing.

Other connections are harder to nail down, Alley says, such as whether a particular hurricane can be attributed to climate change.

"The Climate Science Special Report is like going to a doctor and being given a report on your vital signs," says environmental scientist Rachel Licker of the Union of Concerned Scientists. She notes that the authors assessed more than 1,500 scientific studies and reports in making their conclusions.

Alley adds that the new report "does a better job of seeing the human fingerprint in what's happening." He says that while he hasn't read all of it yet, he sees no evidence that it has been soft-pedaled or understates the certainty of the science.

Alley notes that "there's a little rumbling" among climate scientists who are concerned that the Trump administration will ignore this effort. "I think the authors really are interested in seeing [the report] used wisely by policymakers to help the economy as well as the environment."

The report has been submitted to the Office of Science and Technology Policy at the White House. Trump has yet to choose anyone to run that office; it remains one of the last unfilled senior positions in the White House staff.
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Old 02-13-2018, 06:05 AM   #136
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fish View Post
If you talk to any sensible climate scientists, they're not going to tell you we're on the brink of utter destruction. That's simply part of the denial narrative. The overwhelming majority of the "We're all gonna die!" mantra isn't coming from climate scientists.

If you look into the details of current climate models, you would find that they do in fact take into account many of the elements you mention. Those things are definitely factored into climate science. We can calculate the physics required to parachute a nuclear powered robot onto Mars. The idea that climate is to complex to understand is simply no longer the case.

We've also had a quantum leap in the number of carbon-emitting engines along with that quantum leap in population. If you acknowledge the drastic increase in population, it's not difficult to understand how the parallel increase in carbon emissions is also going to have an effect.
One huge issue is the media's coverage of climate change. They run around screaming the sky is falling with head lines that shout the worst possible outcome. Then you read the linked science and a fairly wide range of outcomes are listed.

Al Gore did more to hurt the topic with his quest to get rich off it than Rush and his kind could ever have done.
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Old 02-13-2018, 10:57 AM   #137
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Originally Posted by Fish View Post
If you look into the details of current climate models, you would find that they do in fact take into account many of the elements you mention. Those things are definitely factored into climate science. We can calculate the physics required to parachute a nuclear powered robot onto Mars. The idea that climate is too complex to understand is simply no longer the case.
You are wrong on this point. All of our modeling systems have to cut some corners to allow for reasonable computation times using current systems. It will take a major leap forward (ie quantum computing) before we are at the point that I think you think we are at now.
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Old 02-13-2018, 11:36 AM   #138
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You are wrong on this point. All of our modeling systems have to cut some corners to allow for reasonable computation times using current systems. It will take a major leap forward (ie quantum computing) before we are at the point that I think you think we are at now.
A popular, but incorrect assumption. Fortunately, climate scientists disagree...

Is Climate Too Complex to Model or Predict?
Scientists say no

There certainly is not a single model that incorporates every forcing factor in one model. But that's not necessary. It's been found that better accuracy results from a large combination of simplified models.

Here's a good video on the accuracy and success of current climate models:



Not to mention, scientists just made another pretty big breakthrough for better accuracy:

https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25450
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Old 02-13-2018, 11:46 AM   #139
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"Scientist" say "No" is a sweeping generality. Second link names IPCC ( the UN which wants global carbon taxes) and footnotes some scientist's references and that's all. It's kinda' like econometric models Keyenesian frauds use that do not pan out. Such models are bogus. You can always select some out that predict one thing while others say the opposite.

Fish once again, relying on the Appeal to Authority fallacy in logic to make his case.
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Old 02-13-2018, 11:52 AM   #140
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As for the first link by Fish, what's laughable is this:

Quote:
There are two basic approaches to testing the accuracy of a climate model. You can wait and see what happens in the future and compare it with the predictions of your model, or, if you don’t have the luxury of waiting for years and years, you can do what’s called “hindcasting.”
JHC, these same "climate" guys are not better than the "weathermen" they admit don't always get their predictions right. The climate alleged "scientists" said we'd be under water decades ago here in Florida. It has yet to happen.

Furthermore, atmospheric physics is a much more difficult to science to study than an anyone can learn climate science "scientists."
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Old 02-13-2018, 12:28 PM   #141
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BucEyedPea View Post
As for the first link by Fish, what's laughable is this:



JHC, these same "climate" guys are not better than the "weathermen" they admit don't always get their predictions right. The climate alleged "scientists" said we'd be under water decades ago here in Florida. It has yet to happen.
Any scientist who does not admit they don't always get their predictions right is not an actual scientist.


Quote:
Originally Posted by BucEyedPea View Post
Furthermore, atmospheric physics is a much more difficult to science to study than an anyone can learn climate science "scientists."
Is this even English?
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Old 02-13-2018, 02:44 PM   #142
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fish View Post
Any scientist who does not admit they don't always get their predictions right is not an actual scientist.




Is this even English?
You have to give Tammy a break sometimes. She was probably trying to vacuum the carpet while typing that. Her husband gets pissed if the house isn't clean when she's been spending time spouting nonsense on the internet.
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Old 02-13-2018, 06:29 PM   #143
IowaHawkeyeChief IowaHawkeyeChief is offline
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Originally Posted by stumppy View Post
You have to give Tammy a break sometimes. She was probably trying to vacuum the carpet while typing that. Her husband gets pissed if the house isn't clean when she's been spending time spouting nonsense on the internet.
Does your husband get pissed at you?
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Old 02-13-2018, 06:32 PM   #144
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fish View Post
Any scientist who does not admit they don't always get their predictions right is not an actual scientist.




Is this even English?
On a second reading apparently not. Sorry for the grammar typos. I just don't proof often.

Here it is reworked:
Quote:
Originally Posted by BucEyedPea
Furthermore, atmospheric physics is a much more difficult science to study, when anyone can learn climate science.
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