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Old 11-03-2017, 01:51 PM  
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US Government Releases Climate Science Special Report (NCA4)

"No convincing alternative explanation."

Massive Government Report Says Climate Is Warming And Humans Are The Cause

It is "extremely likely" that human activities are the "dominant cause" of global warming, according to the most comprehensive study ever of climate science by U.S. government researchers.

The climate report, obtained by NPR, notes that the past 115 years are "the warmest in the history of modern civilization." The global average temperature has increased by about 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit over that period. Greenhouse gases from industry and agriculture are by far the biggest contributor to warming.

The findings contradict statements by President Trump and many of his Cabinet members, who have openly questioned the role humans play in changing the climate.

"I believe that measuring with precision human activity on the climate is something very challenging to do," EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt said in an interview earlier this year. "There's tremendous disagreement about the degree of impact."

That is not consistent with the conclusions of the 600-plus-page Climate Science Special Report, which is part of an even larger scientific review known as the fourth National Climate Assessment. The NCA4, as it's known, is the nation's most authoritative assessment of climate science. The report's authors include experts from leading scientific agencies, including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA and the Department of Energy, as well as academic scientists.

The report states that the global climate will continue to warm. How much, it says, "will depend primarily on the amount of greenhouse gases (especially carbon dioxide) emitted globally." Without major reductions in emissions, it says, the increase in annual average global temperature could reach 9 degrees Fahrenheit relative to pre-industrial times. Efforts to reduce emissions, it says, would slow the rate of warming.

"This is good, solid climate science," says Richard Alley, a geoscientist at Penn State University, who says he made minor contributions to the report's conclusions on sea level rise. "This has been reviewed so many times in so many ways, and it's taking what we know from ... a couple of centuries of climate science and applying it to the U.S."

The assessments are required by an act of Congress; the last one was published in 2014. Alley says this year's goes further in attributing changes in weather to the warming climate, especially weather extremes. "More heat waves and fewer cold snaps, this is very clear," he says. The report also notes that warmer temperatures have contributed to the rise in forest fires in the West and that the incidence of those fires is expected to keep rising.

Some of the clearest effects involve sea level rise. "Coastal flooding, you raise the mean level of the ocean, everything else equal you get more coastal flooding," Alley says. The report notes that sea level has risen 7 to 8 inches since 1900, and 3 inches of that occurred since 1993. The report says that rate is faster than during any century over the past 2,800 years.

The report also points out that heavy rainfall is increasing in intensity and frequency across the U.S., especially in the Northeast, and that is expected to keep increasing.

Other connections are harder to nail down, Alley says, such as whether a particular hurricane can be attributed to climate change.

"The Climate Science Special Report is like going to a doctor and being given a report on your vital signs," says environmental scientist Rachel Licker of the Union of Concerned Scientists. She notes that the authors assessed more than 1,500 scientific studies and reports in making their conclusions.

Alley adds that the new report "does a better job of seeing the human fingerprint in what's happening." He says that while he hasn't read all of it yet, he sees no evidence that it has been soft-pedaled or understates the certainty of the science.

Alley notes that "there's a little rumbling" among climate scientists who are concerned that the Trump administration will ignore this effort. "I think the authors really are interested in seeing [the report] used wisely by policymakers to help the economy as well as the environment."

The report has been submitted to the Office of Science and Technology Policy at the White House. Trump has yet to choose anyone to run that office; it remains one of the last unfilled senior positions in the White House staff.
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Old 11-03-2017, 01:52 PM   #2
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Link to NCA4 full report: https://science2017.globalchange.gov...FullReport.pdf
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Old 11-03-2017, 02:00 PM   #3
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KEY FINDINGS

1. The global climate continues to change rapidly compared to the pace of the natural variations in climate that have occurred throughout Earth’s history. Trends in globally averaged temperature, sea level rise, upper-ocean heat content, land-based ice melt, arctic sea ice, depth of seasonal permafrost thaw, and other climate variables provide consistent evidence of a warming planet. These observed trends are robust and have been confirmed by multiple independent research groups around the world. (Very high confidence)

2. The frequency and intensity of extreme heat and heavy precipitation events are increasing in most continental regions of the world (very high confidence). These trends are consistent with expected physical responses to a warming climate. Climate model studies are also consistent with these trends, although models tend to underestimate the observed trends, especially for the increase in extreme precipitation events (very high confidence for temperature, high confidence for extreme precipitation). The frequency and intensity of extreme high temperature events are virtually certain to increase in the future as global temperature increases (high confidence). Extreme precipitation events will very likely continue to increase in frequency and intensity throughout most of the world (high confidence). Observed and projected trends for some other types of extreme events, such as floods, droughts, and severe storms, have more variable regional characteristics.

3. Many lines of evidence demonstrate that it is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. Formal detection and attribution studies for the period 1951 to 2010 find that the observed global mean surface temperature warming lies in the middle of the range of likely human contributions to warming over that same period. We find no convincing evidence that natural variability can account for the amount of global warming observed over the industrial era. For the period extending over the last century, there are no convincing alternative explanations supported by the extent of the observational evidence. Solar output changes and internal variability can only contribute marginally to the observed changes in climate over the last century, and we find no convincing evidence for natural cycles in the observational record that could explain the observed changes in climate. (Very high confidence)

4. Global climate is projected to continue to change over this century and beyond. The magnitude of climate change beyond the next few decades will depend primarily on the amount of greenhouse (heat-trapping) gases emitted globally and on the remaining uncertainty in the sensitivity of Earth’s climate to those emissions (very high confidence). With significant reductions in the emissions of greenhouse gases, the global annually averaged temperature rise could be limited to 3.6°F (2°C) or less. Without major reductions in these emissions, the increase in annual average global temperatures relative to preindustrial times could reach 9°F (5°C) or more by the end of this century (high confidence).

5. Natural variability, including El Niño events and other recurring patterns of ocean–atmosphere interactions, impact temperature and precipitation, especially regionally, over months to years. The global influence of natural variability, however, is limited to a small fraction of observed climate trends over decades. (Very high confidence)

6. Longer-term climate records over past centuries and millennia indicate that average temperatures in recent decades over much of the world have been much higher, and have risen faster during this time period, than at any time in the past 1,700 years or more, the time period for which the global distribution
of surface temperatures can be reconstructed. (High confidence)
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Old 11-03-2017, 02:02 PM   #4
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Old 11-03-2017, 02:13 PM   #5
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I read somewhere Yellowstone is going to explode sometime soon and kill us all so this report doesn't really matter.
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Old 11-03-2017, 02:18 PM   #6
LaDexter LaDexter is offline
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Satellites and balloons continue to show precisely NO WARMING in the atmosphere.

There is no ongoing net ice melt either, as 90% of Earth ice on Antarctica keeps growing.

That is why the "warmers" have to lie about why the Marshall Islands are "sinking."



PARROTS do not care about such truth. PARROTS only care about BAWKING.
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Old 11-03-2017, 02:30 PM   #7
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Let's have some DATA, not noise from taxpayer funded left wing liars....


Antarctica - 90% of Earth's ice...


in 2007, we took the "warmers" to court in Britain...


https://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/nb...nvenient-truth


"The film suggests that the Antarctic ice covering is melting, the evidence was that it is in fact increasing."


Ten years later, the NASA data validated the Court finding which Algore's side never appealed...


https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard...er-than-losses


"the Antarctic ice sheet showed a net gain of 112 billion tons of ice a year from 1992 to 2001. That net gain slowed to 82 billion tons of ice per year between 2003 and 2008."


In short, that which is added on top of Antarctica minus what breaks off in the form of icebergs (which is 46 times what the Mississippi River dumps into the Gulf) is

AT LEAST 80 billion tons of frozen H2O every year. EVERY YEAR.


Antarctic ice is 90% of Earth ice and GROWING EVERY YEAR


WHERE IS "the ice is melting" coming from?

Are sea levels "rising?"

Is that why the "warmers" have to lie about the Marshall Islands???
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Old 11-03-2017, 02:36 PM   #8
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Old 11-03-2017, 02:38 PM   #9
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Old 11-03-2017, 02:39 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by Prison Bitch View Post




He ran away when the questioning started just like Fish....
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Old 11-03-2017, 02:40 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LaDexter View Post
[..]

Antarctic ice is 90% of Earth ice and GROWING EVERY YEAR


WHERE IS "the ice is melting" coming from?

Are sea levels "rising?"

Is that why the "warmers" have to lie about the Marshall Islands???
Antarctic sea ice is lower than it's been in 31 years. It's the second lowest level we've seen since we started keeping records.

Quote:
The September Southern Hemisphere (Antarctic) sea ice extent was 18.03 million square km (6.96 million square miles), which was 850,000 square km (330,000 square miles), or 4.51 percent, below the 1981-2010 average. This was the second smallest September Southern Hemisphere sea ice extent on record and only slightly larger than the September extent in 1986.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global-snow/201709
Nobody is lying about the Marshall Islands. They are experiencing expected sea level rise.

https://phys.org/news/2016-03-seas-s...l-islands.html
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Old 11-03-2017, 02:44 PM   #12
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My Weekly Reader in grade school in the 70's said we were heading to the next ice age... Al Gore told me 17 years ago the coastal cities would be underwater. Researchers have been caught manipulating data. This is their religion.
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Old 11-03-2017, 02:44 PM   #13
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Old 11-03-2017, 02:45 PM   #14
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"Antarctic sea ice is lower than it's been in 31 years. It's the second lowest level we've seen since we started keeping records. "


Oh wow Fish, gotta check out the chatter on that one....

Antarctic sea ice = less than 1% of Earth ice.... but.... you got it...


record high in 2014

https://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard...record-maximum

also in 2011, 2010, 2007....

RECORD HIGHS....


what caused this year's to "melt" so quickly?

Same reason why the "record low" in the Arctic was 2005....

The Transantarctic Mountains are tectonically active, especially on the Peninsula, and under water....

When they release magma, sea ice on top vanishes pretty fast.
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Old 11-03-2017, 02:47 PM   #15
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"Nobody is lying about the Marshall Islands. They are experiencing expected sea level rise."


Why isn't Hawaii sinking?

Why is NOTHING sinking except the Marshall Islands, the Solomon Islands, and one other island chain by New Guinea?



How do you get a sea level rise on Earth when 90% of Earth's ice is gaining at least 80 billion tons every year?



Just how ****ING STUPID does one get BAWKING 24/7/365?
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