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Old 11-03-2017, 01:51 PM  
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US Government Releases Climate Science Special Report (NCA4)

"No convincing alternative explanation."

Massive Government Report Says Climate Is Warming And Humans Are The Cause

It is "extremely likely" that human activities are the "dominant cause" of global warming, according to the most comprehensive study ever of climate science by U.S. government researchers.

The climate report, obtained by NPR, notes that the past 115 years are "the warmest in the history of modern civilization." The global average temperature has increased by about 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit over that period. Greenhouse gases from industry and agriculture are by far the biggest contributor to warming.

The findings contradict statements by President Trump and many of his Cabinet members, who have openly questioned the role humans play in changing the climate.

"I believe that measuring with precision human activity on the climate is something very challenging to do," EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt said in an interview earlier this year. "There's tremendous disagreement about the degree of impact."

That is not consistent with the conclusions of the 600-plus-page Climate Science Special Report, which is part of an even larger scientific review known as the fourth National Climate Assessment. The NCA4, as it's known, is the nation's most authoritative assessment of climate science. The report's authors include experts from leading scientific agencies, including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA and the Department of Energy, as well as academic scientists.

The report states that the global climate will continue to warm. How much, it says, "will depend primarily on the amount of greenhouse gases (especially carbon dioxide) emitted globally." Without major reductions in emissions, it says, the increase in annual average global temperature could reach 9 degrees Fahrenheit relative to pre-industrial times. Efforts to reduce emissions, it says, would slow the rate of warming.

"This is good, solid climate science," says Richard Alley, a geoscientist at Penn State University, who says he made minor contributions to the report's conclusions on sea level rise. "This has been reviewed so many times in so many ways, and it's taking what we know from ... a couple of centuries of climate science and applying it to the U.S."

The assessments are required by an act of Congress; the last one was published in 2014. Alley says this year's goes further in attributing changes in weather to the warming climate, especially weather extremes. "More heat waves and fewer cold snaps, this is very clear," he says. The report also notes that warmer temperatures have contributed to the rise in forest fires in the West and that the incidence of those fires is expected to keep rising.

Some of the clearest effects involve sea level rise. "Coastal flooding, you raise the mean level of the ocean, everything else equal you get more coastal flooding," Alley says. The report notes that sea level has risen 7 to 8 inches since 1900, and 3 inches of that occurred since 1993. The report says that rate is faster than during any century over the past 2,800 years.

The report also points out that heavy rainfall is increasing in intensity and frequency across the U.S., especially in the Northeast, and that is expected to keep increasing.

Other connections are harder to nail down, Alley says, such as whether a particular hurricane can be attributed to climate change.

"The Climate Science Special Report is like going to a doctor and being given a report on your vital signs," says environmental scientist Rachel Licker of the Union of Concerned Scientists. She notes that the authors assessed more than 1,500 scientific studies and reports in making their conclusions.

Alley adds that the new report "does a better job of seeing the human fingerprint in what's happening." He says that while he hasn't read all of it yet, he sees no evidence that it has been soft-pedaled or understates the certainty of the science.

Alley notes that "there's a little rumbling" among climate scientists who are concerned that the Trump administration will ignore this effort. "I think the authors really are interested in seeing [the report] used wisely by policymakers to help the economy as well as the environment."

The report has been submitted to the Office of Science and Technology Policy at the White House. Trump has yet to choose anyone to run that office; it remains one of the last unfilled senior positions in the White House staff.
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Old 11-04-2017, 11:48 AM   #76
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Originally Posted by Donger View Post
I'm trying really hard to get worried about a rise of 1.8F over the last 115 years, but I'm failing.
You really don't think a rise of 1.8 in the average global temperature would be problematic?
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Old 11-04-2017, 11:48 AM   #77
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No offense, but convincing you is irrelevant. For the same reason that NASA didn't call you up and make sure you understood the physics of remotely parachuting a nuclear robot onto Mars from 34 million miles away. Which the government had a hand in that actually worked. Or maybe something like cancer and other medical research? Would you refuse your neurosurgeon's advice because he previously got a government grant to study something in his particular field? No, of course you wouldn't.

Man made climate change is real. This is the largest US climate change study ever undertaken, and it confirms that in about every way possible. "No convincing alternative explanation." You cannot simply wave that away as being meaningless.
I'm aware of that. The government has been squandering my money on nonsense my whole life, I highly doubt they are going to pick today to start asking my opinion. But, if you are not trying to convince people of your stance, why did you post this?

And common sense screams don't take the word of someone who is trying to profit on something. Should I take McDonald's word on the fact that I must eat 2 Big Mac's a day to survive? Or Boeing's word that flight is the only means of safe travel? I'm not saying it's not possible man is influencing climate change (just not very likely), I'm saying I don't plan on taking the word of the government who wants my money to "fix" it.
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Old 11-04-2017, 11:48 AM   #78
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You really don't think a rise of 1.8 in the average global temperature would be problematic?
No. Because it apparently has and there's been what big change?
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Old 11-04-2017, 11:51 AM   #79
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Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins View Post
So, you think it's the scientific panels promoting tribalism and junk science here?
It's religion/snake oil always been the same throughout history. Doesn't matter if it's a "man of god" or a "man of the people" or a "man of science"

It's ALWAYS about the money.
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Old 11-04-2017, 11:57 AM   #80
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Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins View Post
Who do you think developed the architecture for the thing your bitching about them on right now?

For the especially ironic cherry on the stupid sundae, oaklandhater complaining about Net Neutrality is an argument that telecoms, which are decidedly non-government entities, will **** up the Internet if the government allows them to. That is, the government protections for things like net neutrality is what allows the open access to the Internet to function as well as it does.

So, good job on your score of 0%.
Soooo, at that point, would the government have a finger in something that is f***** up or not?

And just for shits n grins, let me give you the internet is super duper BECAUSE of the government. Kudos to them for getting 1 thing right. It still doesn't disprove the principal of where I was going and you know it.
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Old 11-04-2017, 11:57 AM   #81
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Originally Posted by Donger View Post
No. Because it apparently has and there's been what big change?
I would recommend you read the report. It addresses the changes. Particularly these chapters:

5. Large-Scale Circulation and Climate Variability ..................................................................................161

6. Temperature Changes in the United States ...........................................................................................185

7. Precipitation Change in the United States ............................................................................................207

8. Droughts, Floods, and Wildfires .................................................................................................... ...... ..231

9. Extreme Storms .................................................................................................... ...... ..............................257

10. Changes in Land Cover and Terrestrial Biogeochemistry ..................................................................277

11. Arctic Changes and their Effects on Alaska and the Rest of the United States ...............................303

12. Sea Level Rise .................................................................................................... ...... .................................333

13. Ocean Acidification and Other Ocean Changes ...................................................................................364
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Old 11-04-2017, 11:58 AM   #82
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Originally Posted by Fish View Post
I would recommend you read the report. It addresses the changes. Particularly these chapters:

5. Large-Scale Circulation and Climate Variability ..................................................................................161

6. Temperature Changes in the United States ...........................................................................................185

7. Precipitation Change in the United States ............................................................................................207

8. Droughts, Floods, and Wildfires .................................................................................................... ...... ..231

9. Extreme Storms .................................................................................................... ...... ..............................257

10. Changes in Land Cover and Terrestrial Biogeochemistry ..................................................................277

11. Arctic Changes and their Effects on Alaska and the Rest of the United States ...............................303

12. Sea Level Rise .................................................................................................... ...... .................................333

13. Ocean Acidification and Other Ocean Changes ...................................................................................364
Must really unnoticeable major changes, I guess.
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Old 11-04-2017, 11:59 AM   #83
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Originally Posted by Over Yonder View Post
Soooo, at that point, would the government have a finger in something that is f***** up or not?

And just for shits n grins, let me give you the internet is super duper BECAUSE of the government. Kudos to them for getting 1 thing right. It still doesn't disprove the principal of where I was going and you know it.
It doesn't?

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Can you name anything else the government has a hand in that actually works right?
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Old 11-04-2017, 12:01 PM   #84
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Originally Posted by Fish View Post
I would recommend you read the report. It addresses the changes. Particularly these chapters:

5. Large-Scale Circulation and Climate Variability ..................................................................................161

6. Temperature Changes in the United States ...........................................................................................185

7. Precipitation Change in the United States ............................................................................................207

8. Droughts, Floods, and Wildfires .................................................................................................... ...... ..231

9. Extreme Storms .................................................................................................... ...... ..............................257

10. Changes in Land Cover and Terrestrial Biogeochemistry ..................................................................277

11. Arctic Changes and their Effects on Alaska and the Rest of the United States ...............................303

12. Sea Level Rise .................................................................................................... ...... .................................333

13. Ocean Acidification and Other Ocean Changes ...................................................................................364
What created the chupacabra, now we know. Next it will be land sharks or sharknados
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Old 11-04-2017, 12:02 PM   #85
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I'll just take one. The report acknowledges that the peak period for extreme temperature in the United States was the 1930s. How do they reconcile that with the last 80 years of us punishing the environment?
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Old 11-04-2017, 12:03 PM   #86
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Originally Posted by Donger View Post
Must really unnoticeable major changes, I guess.
The study states otherwise. They're pretty thorough about it.
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Old 11-04-2017, 12:10 PM   #87
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I'll fire up the snowblower to check it out before the first snowfall
Global warming, duh! It's never going to snow again, anywhere. Ask any liberal, they'll tell you!
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Old 11-04-2017, 12:10 PM   #88
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It doesn't?
Ok, fair enough. Poor wording on my part. Got to go to work, enjoy your Saturday.
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Old 11-04-2017, 12:11 PM   #89
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I'll just take one. The report acknowledges that the peak period for extreme temperature in the United States was the 1930s. How do they reconcile that with the last 80 years of us punishing the environment?
Just look at the trend comparisons during each period. 1930 was an anomaly, not a trend.





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The decreases in the eastern half of Nation, particularly in the Great Plains, are mainly tied to the unprecedented summer heat of the 1930s Dust Bowl era, which was exacerbated by land-surface feedbacks driven by springtime precipitation deficits and land mismanagement. However, anthropogenic aerosol forcing may also have reduced summer temperatures in the Northeast and Southeast from the early 1950s to the mid-1970s, and agricultural intensification may have suppressed the hottest extremes in the Midwest. Since the mid-1960s, there has been only a very slight increase in the warmest daily temperature of the year (amidst large interannual variability). Heat waves (6-day periods with a maximum temperature above the 90th percentile for 1961–1990) increased in frequency until the mid-1930s, became considerably less common through the mid-1960s, and increased in frequency again thereafter (Figure 6.4).
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Old 11-04-2017, 12:13 PM   #90
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The scope of this study is seriously incredible. But there will be absolutely no convincing some of these jokers. They could witness the sea boil in front of their eyes, and still make Al Gore jokes...
Just stop! The same gene that prevented you from seeing Hillary and the DNC cheating is the same gene that's keeping you from believing global warming is a hoax.

It's bullshit and you know it.
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