New Apple Tablet

[dirk digler]

Cool stuff. On Engadget live right now

http://www.engadget.com/2010/01/27/l...est&refresh=30

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by KC Fish

I agree. I have no idea how they're projecting such a surge in the Windows corner. I haven't seen that kind of difference at all from my experience with Windows7 phones.

I am not a fan of Windows phones but I can see where they are coming from. Basically everyone who WAS buying Symbian phones will move over to Windows... they may be off by 2-5% but basically they are prolly right.

[WoodDraw]

I struggle to make the connection that current Symbian users will convert in high numbers to Windows7 simply because Nokia tells them to. I think they'll bleed significantly to Apple, and especially Android.

I've never touched a Windows phone though, so maybe other people like them.

[DaFace]

Originally Posted by WoodDraw

I struggle to make the connection that current Symbian users will convert in high numbers to Windows7 simply because Nokia tells them to. I think they'll bleed significantly to Apple, and especially Android.

I've never touched a Windows phone though, so maybe other people like them.

Yeah, that's kind of where I'm at. For me personally, I picked the OS first, and THEN started looking at manufacturers. I actually had to think twice just to figure out that mine's an LG.

But maybe Nokia has a lot more brand loyalty overseas than we do here. Who knows?

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by KC Fish

But I still disagree with the tablet market. If Apple ever drops below 50% in the tablet market in the next few years, I'll be very surprised. Despite tablet app or specification differences, Apple's rep and marketing is too strong to slip to a bunch of Android devices for quite some time.

In the next year.. maybe not.. in the next 18-24 months I could easily see Android passing iOS in the Tablet market... it's only a matter of time... now we are just debating on how much time.

Think of it like this... Android didn't steal many EXISTING customers away from iPhone.. they just got a massively higher share of NEW customers. The same will happen with tablets as more and more of the big players get on the market. As many tablets that have been sold, it still represents a very very very small percentage of the potential market. The dark horses here are WebOS(HP) and Windows tablets. Windows has a real shot at changing the entire landscape. If so, Apple will still drop far below 50% but it just may not be Android alone that eats up the remaining share.

Also don't forget that the Nook Color counts as an Android tablet... 3 million sold vs 15 million iPads.. that's a 15% to 75% share if you don't count ANY other tablets... cheap Android tablets will end up bringing in the largest share of new tablet buyers.

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by DaFace

Yeah, that's kind of where I'm at. For me personally, I picked the OS first, and THEN started looking at manufacturers. I actually had to think twice just to figure out that mine's an LG.

But maybe Nokia has a lot more brand loyalty overseas than we do here. Who knows?

I tend to think the same way but it really is different overseas... but who knows.

Originally Posted by WoodDraw

I think they'll bleed significantly to Apple, and especially Android.

MUCH MUCH MUCH more likely to bleed to Android over iPhone. The Symbian community is much more similar to the Android community.

[WoodDraw]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

Also don't forget that the Nook Color counts as an Android tablet... 3 million sold vs 15 million iPads.. that's a 15% to 75% share if you don't count ANY other tablets... cheap Android tablets will end up bringing in the largest share of new tablet buyers.

That's questionable. You can put android on my refrigerator, but that doesn't make it a giant tablet. The vast majority of those nooks lack critical functions that I'd consider necessary to call something a "tablet". There's a difference between being "powered by Android" and being an "Android tablet".

[Fish]

From CNNmoney.com. The analysts weigh in:

• Competition: Deutsche Bank's Chris Whitmore spoke for many: "The iPad 2 consolidates Apple's position as the innovation yardstick within the tablet space and we expect it [to] dominate the segment. We remain cautious on the non-iPad segment of the tablet market and expect new entrants to struggle gaining traction in the market."

• Bubble ahead? "We reiterate our view that there is risk of a tablet bubble in 2011," writes Morgan Stanley's Mark Moskowitz. "There are many competitive tablet entrants expected, but so far, we think that both Samsung and Motorola have experienced disappointing adoption curves. We expect more of the same from other entrants. Meanwhile, Apple's iPad 2 technical and form factor improvements, coupled with opening weekend stock- outs, point to a widening gap in market share ownership potential."

Full Article: http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/03/...ysts-weigh-in/

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by KC Fish

But as of a month ago, Android market only had 16 available apps specifically designed for Honeycomb tablets, which weren't a blown-up version of a smartphone app. EDIT: Looks like it's went up a few:

https://market.android.com/details?i...start=0&num=24

The key to the "App argument" is this... any NEW tablet apps that are worth a damn are now going to be released in both an Android and an IPad version. The Android market is too large to be ignored. It will take time to catch up, but as someone who works in the software field... I can assure you it won't take much time at all.

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by WoodDraw

That's questionable. You can put android on my refrigerator, but that doesn't make it a giant tablet. The vast majority of those nooks lack critical functions that I'd consider necessary to call something a "tablet". There's a difference between being "powered by Android" and being an "Android tablet".

I could say the same thing about iPads... :P At least the Nook Color can handle Flash!

[Fish]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

The key to the "App argument" is this... any NEW tablet apps that are worth a damn are now going to be released in both an Android and an IPad version. The Android market is too large to be ignored. It will take time to catch up, but as someone who works in the software field... I can assure you it won't take much time at all.

I absolutely agree with this. And I have the entire time. I just reiterate that your predicted schedule of this happening has been very inaccurate throughout this thread.

I seriously do support parity in the environment. It's great for both.

[WoodDraw]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

I could say the same thing about iPads... :P At least the Nook Color can handle Flash!

Indeed. But I'm sure even the Google engineers would cringe at your original claim. You have displays in cars that run off Android, but that doesn't make them Android devices. I'm sure it's cool for the Google developers to see all of the strange ways people have adapted their product, but they're still pretty protective of it in the phone and tablet market.

They don't want people selling cheap knockoffs as "Android tablets" and hurting the brand. That's why they can and do deny access to the Market and Google Apps to low standard devices. And why they've refused to release Honeycomb source yet.

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by KC Fish

From CNNmoney.com. The analysts weigh in:
Full Article: http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/03/...ysts-weigh-in/

Wanna make a bet with me? I remember the same "analysts" with little to no true tech knowledge making those claims about the iPhone when the first Android phones were hitting the market.

The iPhone is 4 years old.. Android phones have been out for 2 years. It took 2 years for the phones to take over the market... if we count the tablets as iPad being 1 year old and Android being 1 month old... I say it takes 18 months for the same to happen... and that may be a conservative estimate.

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by WoodDraw

Indeed. But I'm sure even the Google engineers would cringe at your original claim. You have displays in cars that run off Android, but that doesn't make them Android devices. I'm sure it's cool for the Google developers to see all of the strange ways people have adapted their product, but they're still pretty protective of it in the phone and tablet market.

They don't want people selling cheap knockoffs as "Android tablets" and hurting the brand. That's why they can and do deny access to the Market and Google Apps to low standard devices. And why they've refused to release Honeycomb source yet.

My point is that cheaper Android tablets are what's going to make their market share explode. I am willing to only count "sanctioned" tablets if you want... it won't change the final outcome... it may only push the figures back by a month or two.

[Fish]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

Wanna make a bet with me? I remember the same "analysts" with little to no true tech knowledge making those claims about the iPhone when the first Android phones were hitting the market.

The iPhone is 4 years old.. Android phones have been out for 2 years. It took 2 years for the phones to take over the market... if we count the tablets as iPad being 1 year old and Android being 1 month old... I say it takes 18 months for the same to happen... and that may be a conservative estimate.

I would definitely bet against Apple lowering its tablet market share to <16% in 18 months. Absolutely.

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by KC Fish

I absolutely agree with this. And I have the entire time. I just reiterate that your predicted schedule of this happening has been very inaccurate throughout this thread.

I seriously do support parity in the environment. It's great for both.

Huh? My predictions in this thread were mostly about HTML5 adoption rates and the phasing out of FLASH... and guess what.. now that it is one year later... I was right. Flash is still HUGE on the web and HTML5 support is spotty at best. Yes "there's an app for that" but I STILL don't want a goddamn app for every website I might want to go to. And a perfect FAIL example is the YouTube app. It works great if you only want access to half the content out there.

The only other "prediction" I made was regarding the Gemini tablet which had great specs and just never got released here in the States. I was dead wrong on that one.

BTW I was not a fan of Android back when this thread started either... I preferred WebOS. Android has made huge strides since then though.

I really haven't predicted much until recently. Which I assume you aren't talking about since they are all predictions in the last couple months and it'd be kinda hard to judge those so soon.