Pete Prisco on Geno Smith

[ShowtimeSBMVP]

Geno Smith has potential but not the overall game to be a top-10 pick
March 28, 2013 11:32 AM ET

3 | Comments

At the league meetings earlier this month, I asked two general managers I respect greatly to assess the quarterback class in this year's draft, and both had similar responses.

They don't like it.

"Are we trying to like these guys more than we should?" one of the general managers said. "I don't love any of them."

Not even Geno Smith?
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"No, not even him," he said. "I want the guy at the top to jump out at me on tape, the wow plays, the big throws, the kind of guy you know will be your guy for the next 10 years. I don't see that from him. Can he be good? I am not sure he can. Can he be special? Doubt it. And if you are taking that guy at the top, you want special."

I watched a lot of Smith on Saturdays during the college season. He looked impressive. He had a good arm, made a lot of nice throws and led a high-flying offense at West Virginia.

So as I dove into his tape this week, I did so with an open mind. Were these general managers being too harsh? Was all the talk that Geno Smith should be a top-5 pick accurate?

After studying him closely, I will say this: There is a lot to like, but if I were the GM making the pick Smith wouldn't be my choice in the top 10 or even the top 20.

There are too many flaws.

In fairness to Smith, he played behind a horrible offensive line at West Virginia last year. He was pressured on a regular basis. But the flip side is he played with two outstanding receivers in Tavon Austin, a likely first-round pick, and Steadman Bailey, a likely second-round pick.

In the games I studied, Smith made some impressive throws. He also did some nice things when he moved away from pressure. He moved and reloaded without running. I like that.

But I wanted to like him a lot more than I did. I am a quarterback guy. This league is all about them now. They are 70 percent of the game.

I just didn't get that from Smith. I didn't see a future star. Maybe work can change that. But only time will tell. Here is breakdown of what I saw after studying Smith in several categories.
Arm Strength

When I watched him on television, I thought Smith had a big, powerful arm. After studying his tape, I will say his arm is just OK. He can make all the throws, but there are too many plays where he doesn't seem to have the zip you want from a big-time passer.

That doesn't mean his arm isn't NFL good enough. It certainly is that. But it would have to rank in the middle of the league's passers in terms of arm strength right now. Good, not great.

There were several plays where it appeared he tried to use just his arm, rather than stepping into throws. That's when the ball fell short or skipped to a receiver. I saw him do that on several deep outs.

He also seemed to try and finesse the deep balls, rather than sticking them with a nice throw. Sometimes, he got away with it because of the speed of the college defensive backs. But that won't work in the NFL. He has to be stronger with those throws and drive the football.

He threw a touchdown pass to Bailey against Texas Tech, and even that looked to be a little more of a touch pass than it should have been.

He did make a nice strong throw inside against Oklahoma State to Ryan Nehlen for a touchdown, showing off his arm as he fit it between two defenders. So he can do it. I think some of the problems are from his mechanics, when he just tries to use his arm.
Toughness

This is one area that impressed me. He took a beating at times, but kept getting up and making plays. It's tough to play quarterback behind a line as bad as he had. The pressure was relentless at times.

What I really liked was when I watched him scramble. Smith kept his head up and made plays when he scrambled. This wasn't a quarterback who just tucked it and ran. There were times, however, when he felt what I call "phantom" pressure. There wasn't anyone around him, but he felt it and moved out of the pocket.

That could be because of the poor line up front and the many shots he took. But that's not a good thing. You have to stay on the spot as long as you can if there isn't anybody flushing you out.

But this isn't an area of concern for the most part. He keeps his eyes down the field when the pressure is coming at him. And he can move and reset to throw without taking off to run. That's a plus.
Ability to see the field

Smith does move his head from side-to-side when he is reading the field. I like that. For a young player, he did a solid job at times coming off receivers. But there were other times where I wanted more.

There seemed to be times where he just wouldn't pull the trigger on an open receiver, and came off to a safer throw. That would scare me moving forward. You have to take the chances when they are there.

One such play came against Oklahoma State. On that play, he play-faked to a back out of the shotgun, then faked a reverse to Austin from left to right and set up to throw. He had Bailey wide open in the middle in front of the safeties and behind the linebacker who took a false step on the reverse fake. But he didn't throw it.

He also had J.D. Woods deep on the right sideline wide open, but never threw it. He instead waited for Austin to get into the right flat and he threw it to him for a short gain. That was a safe decision. That isn't what top-level quarterbacks do.

Another time against Iowa State, he had Austin wide open on a cross and held it too long. Eventually, Austin crossed the field and Smith tried to hit him with a soft throw that was easily batted away.
Mechanics

This was a trouble spot for me. His footwork needs a lot of work. He just seemed to use his arm for too many throws. That's a problem. A good quarterback has to step into his throws. That's where the velocity comes from most of the time. Too many times Smith didn't use his legs the right way. And his passes floated.

Most of these bad throws came on intermediate or deep passes. He did a nice job of setting and firing on the short passes. That isn't to say he won't drive it some of the time, but I saw some bad habits.

Against Iowa State, he had Bailey on a deep post for what should have been an easy score. But he tried to touch pass the ball with his arm and it floated. Bailey made a nice adjustment to make the catch for a big gain, but that should have been a touchdown.

Smith has worked to improve his footwork, and scouts at his Pro Day said it was noticeably better. But what happens in the heat of the battle? Does he go back to being more of an arm thrower?
Accuracy

This was a problem at times. Some of it, like I said above, is due to the poor mechanics. But some of it was waiting to throw to open windows all the time. The anticipation wasn't there. You have to feel receivers coming open. At times, Smith seemed to wait and wait and wait and wait.

This is a danger area for NFL quarterbacks. Windows are small and they open and shut quickly. He has to be better at anticipating them coming open, not waiting for them to do so. Some scouts wonder if he can improve that.

At other times, Smith would come off his primary receiver and throw to the other side and skip a pass because he didn't use his body the right way.

There were too many times where I expected passes on the receiver's hands, but they were a little off the target, and the receiver was forced to make a tough catch.
Summary

Smith is a case of a guy being forced up the draft boards. I would take him in the second round. He is in need of some refining. I hear he's a great kid who loves to put in the work, which could make the transition a lot easier. But as far as a top-10 pick, I wouldn't do it. There are simply too many flaws in terms of what I want from my quarterback on the next level. There is growth potential with this kid, but that's not what you want when you draft a kid high in the first round. I just wanted to see more.



http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/story/2...e-a-top10-pick

[penbrook]

Originally Posted by Guru

I guess it all depends on if we can trade out of it. If we absolutely cannot find any trade partners to to trade down, and Geno is considered their BPA then I'll be happy with it. I just can't believe there isn't a team out there that we can't get a few picks out of for 1:1.

Only teams that are interested in Geno are the Bills and Eagles.

[RealSNR]

"You're over."

What does that mean, Dane? I might interpret that as a personal threat if I didn't know you were a ****ing pussy.

[penbrook]

Originally Posted by SNR

"You're over."

What does that mean, Dane? I might interpret that as a personal threat if I didn't know you were a ****ing pussy.

Dane has been a douche as of late...

Started going off on me saying we have 6 holes to fill on this team.

[ArmyChief]

Interesting. I've never thought he was worth the #1 overall anyway. He's getting hyped up by the media. He has potential to be a good QB, gut he's not Day one starter material. That's the point of drafting a QB #1 overall.

[keg in kc]

Originally Posted by ArmyChief

He's getting hyped up by the media.

I'm trying to think of anybody in the media who's been hyping him up at all at any point.

[PA Chiefs]

Wondering in a trade back situation is Dion Jordan (or another pass rusher)+EJ Manuel better then just Geno because who ever we pick up is going to sit and learn for a year or two and then the pass rusher can be used from day one

[AdumbGuy]

Originally Posted by Saccopoo

I'd seriously like to know who in this draft has done more at their respective positions than Geno has done at his.

Who are these mythical Top-10 guys that Geno doesn't fall into/can't beat out that have shown more potential at the next level for their position than Geno?

Werner? Jones? Lotulelei? Joeckel? Fisher? Jordan?

Sorry, but I don't see it.

This. It's like while all the other positions are being compared to each other (Fisher to Joekel) Geno's being compared to Drew Brees and Tom Brady.

Also ridiculous that everybody thinks that somebody at 1.1 should come in and start immediately. Why? Because everybody else will think we're dumb? Santa forbid we let our franchise cornerstone acclimate before getting thrown into a game - people that still think Cassel is serviceable will think we're being silly!

To me, Geno, purported warts and all, is the best player at the most important position in this draft. If somebody can present an argument against that statement, I'm willing to listen, but otherwise, kiss my shiny metal ass.

We can draft Geno at 1.1 or we can trade for picks and hope the QB next year is better AND that our picks are high enough that we can get him. Seems a far bigger gamble than just picking up Geno.

[R8RFAN]

This reminds me of when the Cheap fans thought they were getting Manning

[Mr_Tomahawk]

Good Article.

Thanks for posting.

Geno is overrated on this board. Not that I wouldn't be ectatic if we selected him 1 overall. I just don't think he is an absolute sure thing as many do on this board. I see bust potential in him...

[Chiefs=Champions]

Originally Posted by R8ers

This reminds me of when the Cheap fans thought they were getting Manning

You have your own cesspool to worry about. Try finding something positive about the potential of trading for flynn

[Chiefs=Champions]

Originally Posted by Mr_Tomahawk

Good Article.

Thanks for posting.

Geno is overrated on this board. Not that I wouldn't be ectatic if we selected him 1 overall. I just don't think he is an absolute sure thing as many do on this board. I see bust potential in him...

[Mr_Tomahawk]

Originally Posted by Chiefs=Good

Kind of how I envision Geno homers when they read this article...."daaaaar, not true not true, Geno has a big penis, blah blah blah numbers,blah penis, blah irrelevant .jpg blah blah, hammmmmm."

[ForeverChiefs58]

Originally Posted by ArmyChief

Interesting. I've never thought he was worth the #1 overall anyway. He's getting hyped up by the media. He has potential to be a good QB, gut he's not Day one starter material. That's the point of drafting a QB #1 overall.

Geno has never been hyped by any media. I believe as chiefs fans we have seen all these other teams draft a QB who fell a little in the draft because they were not a media darling, eg. Rodgers, Flacco, Kaepernick, Wilson etc. The chiefs have gambled and lost getting their QB. We have wanted to draft a QB in the first and didnt. In hindsight, some of the QB's fans wanted didnt turn out. Who gives a shit? So draft another one. Fans also aren't paid scouts. Find the QB and draft him early. Stats show that usually pays off in the end playing the name of the game the chiefs owner invented.

[patteeu]

Originally Posted by penbook

Dane has been a douche as of late...

Started going off on me saying we have 6 holes to fill on this team.

You joined in Feb 2013 and now you're our historian?

[Chiefshrink]

Originally Posted by Detoxing

Meh.

i thought it was a fair article. He didn't really say anything that others haven't said about Geno already.

Geno isn't a perfect QB. I've never said that. But I've always felt that the raw talent is there and that it's worth taking a risk on. If the Chiefs drafted him and sat him until Alex flamed out, it's a win/win.

This a 1000x !!!