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Old 12-23-2010, 10:01 AM  
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AccuScore: Chiefs take big step; 49ers alive

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slu...yoffodds122110

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AccuScore uses past performance statistics to describe how players perform under different environmental, matchup, and game-situation conditions. Using projected starting lineups AccuScore simulates each game of the season one play at a time. By repeating the simulation 10,000 to 20,000 times per game AccuScore calculates the precise probability teams have of winning each game, winning their division, and making the playoffs. Here is the AccuScore.com analysis of the 2010 NFL season after Week 15. Visit AccuScore.com for weekly updates to the season forecast and all game forecasts.


AFC

The Chiefs got quarterback Matt Cassel(notes) back and got a dominating rushing performance this past week to put them in great position to take the AFC West title. The Chargers are heavy favorites in both of their remaining games and have over a 55 percent chance of closing with two wins, but they aren’t in the driver’s seat for the playoffs. With the Ravens and Jets both winning, the chances of an AFC West team getting a wild-card spot is unlikely. San Diego and Oakland both won on Sunday, but their playoff chances still dropped considerably because of the Chiefs’ win.

The Jets’ win in Pittsburgh was huge. With a likely first-round matchup against the inexperienced Chiefs, the Jets are probably better off in the No. 6 spot than the Ravens at No. 5. Baltimore will likely have to go to Indianapolis. The Steelers may have lost to the Jets, but they locked up a playoff spot and are still likely to win the AFC North by having a better division record than the Ravens.

The Colts regained control over the AFC South and are the 63.6 percent favorite to win the division. The Jaguars saw their chances drop over 20 percentage points by losing in Indianapolis. There is only a 35 percent chance that the Jags win out, and even if they do they cannot pass the Colts who have the tiebreaker.

WEEK 15 REVIEW PLAYOFF % CHANCE
TEAM WK 15 WK 16 % DIFF WIN DIV
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 54.4% 89.7% 35.3% 86.3%
NEW YORK JETS 75.3% 96.3% 20.9% 1.6%
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 44.2% 63.6% 19.3% 63.6%
BALTIMORE RAVENS 97.3% 98.8% 1.5% 30.2%
TENNESSEE TITANS 0.4% 1.1% 0.8% 1.1%
PITTSBURGH STEELERS 99.8% 100.0% 0.2% 69.8%
BUFFALO BILLS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
CINCINNATI BENGALS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
CLEVELAND BROWNS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DENVER BRONCOS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 98.4%
HOUSTON TEXANS 0.3% 0.0% -0.3% 0.0%
OAKLAND RAIDERS 8.7% 2.0% -6.7% 2.0%
MIAMI DOLPHINS 9.2% 0.0% -9.2% 0.0%
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 58.6% 36.8% -21.8% 35.3%
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 51.8% 11.8% -40.0% 11.8%
NFC

The Bears hammered the Vikings to win the NFC North, and the Packers saw their playoff chances plummet as a result. If Aaron Rodgers(notes) is healthy the Packers are a 58 percent favorite to beat the Giants in Week 16, so they still have a chance if they can beat Chicago in Week 17. The Saints and Giants may have both lost in Week 15, but they are still clear-cut favorites for the wild-card spots.

The three-team race for the NFC West is still alive. Amazingly, the 49ers have a 28 percent chance to win out and take the division. The Rams are actually winning less than 50 percent of Weeks 16 and 17 simulations, but they are still ultimately winning the division 43 percent of the time, which is more than the 49ers and Seahawks.

WEEK 15 REVIEW PLAYOFF % CHANCE
TEAM WK 15 WK 16 % DIFF WIN DIV
CHICAGO BEARS 61.7% 100.0% 38.3% 100.0%
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 87.2% 99.9% 12.7% 99.2%
NEW YORK GIANTS 67.4% 79.4% 12.0% 0.8%
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 16.2% 28.1% 11.9% 28.1%
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 93.1% 97.4% 4.2% 7.9%
ATLANTA FALCONS 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 92.1%
CAROLINA PANTHERS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DALLAS COWBOYS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DETROIT LIONS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
MINNESOTA VIKINGS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
WASHINGTON REDSKINS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
ARIZONA CARDINALS 0.2% 0.0% -0.2% 0.0%
ST. LOUIS RAMS 47.2% 42.8% -4.4% 42.8%
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 36.4% 29.1% -7.4% 29.1%
GREEN BAY PACKERS 53.7% 22.2% -31.6% 0.0%
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 36.9% 1.1% -35.8% 0.0%
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Old 12-23-2010, 10:31 AM   #16
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Yep. But it will be 0% when the Rams beat the 49ers this week.
And they should since Troy's whack ass is back in at QB. I need turnover after turnover after turnover and sack after sack after sack and a defensive TD and a ST TD from you guys this weekend. Want to make sure that happens for me? I'm in the finals in my big money league and this guy, while at 9-6 his team is stacked. I'm nervous and I'm 13-2 haha.

Anyway, Rams D/ST needs to help me out. I also got the Eagles going against a Webb ran Minni offense so I'm good there.
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Old 12-23-2010, 10:31 AM   #17
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Originally Posted by notorious View Post
A lot can happen.


The probable scenario is that San Diego and the Chiefs each drop a game the next two weeks.
I'd say it's about 50/50 we lose 1 game, and I'd say there's about a 35-40% chance SD loses one. So chances are we'll win the division. I'll take that. If we get by Tennessee those percentages go up very high. Hell, hopefully Cinci does the job too so it's officially 100%.
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Old 12-23-2010, 10:32 AM   #18
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Originally Posted by JTagg7754 View Post
And they should since Troy's whack ass is back in at QB. I need turnover after turnover after turnover and sack after sack after sack and a defensive TD and a ST TD from you guys this weekend. Want to make sure that happens for me? I'm in the finals in my big money league and this guy, while at 9-6 his team is stacked. I'm nervous and I'm 13-2 haha.

Anyway, Rams D/ST needs to help me out. I also got the Eagles going against a Webb ran Minni offense so I'm good there.
We'll get 2 out of the 3 things you listed. If the Rams lose in Seattle in Week 17, I'm going to be pissed.
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Old 12-23-2010, 10:33 AM   #19
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Yep. But it will be 0% when the Rams beat the 49ers this week.
And they will.

They bounce back well for a rebuilding team.

Honestly, all football fans in MO should be sporting a big rubbery one based on huge turnarounds in such a short period of time...
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Old 12-23-2010, 10:33 AM   #20
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We'll get 2 out of the 3 things you listed. If the Rams lose in Seattle in Week 17, I'm going to be pissed.
Well the Chiefs are the only thing in the NFL that matters, and they won in Seattle by 18 and in STL by only 14. So you guys are 4 points better. But they're at home too, so give them 3 points. 28-27 Rams.
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Old 12-23-2010, 10:33 AM   #21
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I'd say it's about 50/50 we lose 1 game, and I'd say there's about a 35-40% chance SD loses one. So chances are we'll win the division. I'll take that. If we get by Tennessee those percentages go up very high. Hell, hopefully Cinci does the job too so it's officially 100%.
Tennessee worries me the most.

The Raiders....not so much.
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Old 12-23-2010, 10:33 AM   #22
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Whitehurt will probably still be "commanding" that offense so you should be OK. You have to be ****ing pumped for the turnaround, right? Man, I guess you guys really were playing for Bradford last season haha.
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Old 12-23-2010, 10:34 AM   #23
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We'll get 2 out of the 3 things you listed. If the Rams lose in Seattle in Week 17, I'm going to be pissed.
The Rams are clearly the better team.


For all that's worth...
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Old 12-23-2010, 10:34 AM   #24
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Well the Chiefs are the only thing in the NFL that matters, and they won in Seattle by 18 and in STL by only 14. So you guys are 4 points better. But they're at home too, so give them 3 points. 28-27 Rams.
There we go. I have no clue how the crowd in Seattle will effect the game, though. If the Rams can go to the playoffs, the rebuilding is almost complete.
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Old 12-23-2010, 10:36 AM   #25
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Old 12-23-2010, 10:36 AM   #26
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The Rams are clearly the better team.


For all that's worth...
The better team doesn't let the 49ers win in OT by letting Smith escape a sack. The better team doesn't lose in OT because of a dumb PI call. Anyways, Shurmur will find a way to choke the lead. He goes into conservative playcalling mode when the Rams have a lead in the 4th quarter.
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Old 12-23-2010, 10:36 AM   #27
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Tennessee worries me the most.

The Raiders....not so much.
If our DC ever decides to really come after a QB we can walk away early from the Titans game. As big a fan as I am Collins is about as mobile as post-achilles Marino and they have few downfield threats.

As I see it we're already in the playoffs. One and done.

Bring it on both sides. Unleash Charles and whatever we can muster from the front 7...
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Old 12-23-2010, 10:37 AM   #28
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Originally Posted by Rams Fan View Post
The better team doesn't let the 49ers win in OT by letting Smith escape a sack. The better team doesn't lose in OT because of a dumb PI call. Anyways, Shurmur will find a way to choke the lead. He goes into conservative playcalling mode when the Rams have a lead in the 4th quarter.
You'll fit in well here.

Stick around...
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Old 12-23-2010, 10:39 AM   #29
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Originally Posted by JTagg7754 View Post
LOL how? B/c we played like absolute piss, in your place, and still won?? That logic makes no sense. If we're clicking on all cylinders, you're not beating us, period. We beat you guys in a race driving a ****ing hooptie haha. I'd be very worried about playing us at home where I think we're 5-2 this season. Losing to a Miami team that is close to flawless on the road and Houston who really isn't terrible.
Earth to captain dipshit - the first game we played was in Oakland this time it's in Arrowhead. On January 2nd the Raiders will be knocked out of the playoffs in KANSAS CITY.
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Old 12-23-2010, 10:40 AM   #30
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Earth to captain dipshit - the first game we played was in Oakland this time it's in Arrowhead. On January 2nd the Raiders will be knocked out of the playoffs in KANSAS CITY.
Eh my mistake. Been a rough morning.
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