Royals 2013 Kansas City Royals Repository Thread - Page 97

duncan_idaho · 10:01 AM

Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner
Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play
A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise.

Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk.

At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor.

Burning questions updates below.

Burning Questions for 2013:

1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation?

Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory.

2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door?
Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster.

3) Does Hosmer bounce back?
Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far.
4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012?
Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go.
5) Who regresses?
Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years.
6) Who plays 2B?
Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it.
7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level?
Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha
8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014?
Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014.
9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse?
Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before.
10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers?
Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?

bsp4444 · 03-13-2013, 12:34 PM

I'd like to see Will Smith get a shot at the 5th spot. A left hander sure would be nice.

duncan_idaho · 03-13-2013, 12:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Codered

I don't know if this was posted ... Can this be true!?!?!

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/ey...var-to-bullpen

Royals move Luke Hochevar to bullpen

Former prized prospect Luke Hochevar will no longer be a member of the Kansas City Royals starting rotation. Royals manager Ned Yost told reporters Wednesday morning that Hochevar will be moved to the bullpen (kansascity.com).

The decision leaves Luis Mendoza and Bruce Chen in competition for the fifth starter job behind James Shields, Jeremy Guthrie, Ervin Santana and Wade Davis. None of those four already in the rotation were with the Royals at this time last year.

Hochevar's demotion is most notable due to the fact that he was the top overall draft pick in 2006 out of the University of Tennessee. He was once viewed as a future ace of the Royals' staff, but has gone 38-59 with a 5.73 ERA and 1.40 ERA in 771 career innings. He led the majors in earned runs allowed last season and is now 29 years old. So, yes, unfortunately the word "bust" can be bandied about here.

Some names that were drafted in the first round after Hochevar in 2006: Evan Longoria, Brandon Morrow, Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum, Max Scherzer, Ian Kennedy.

Then again, in fairness to Hochevar and the Royals, here are some others from that first round: Greg Reynolds (second overall), Billy Rowell, Kasey Kiker, Colten Willems, Maxwell Sapp, Cody Johnson and Jason Place.

Man, that draft sucked.

Evan Longoria was the only guy who was projected as a sure major league type.

Kershaw was a LH high school pitcher, and no LH high school pitcher has ever made it to the majors after being selected No. 1 overall.

Lincecum is a tiny, unconventional guy. His body lasted 2-4 more years than most expected, but it appears to be breaking down now.

Morrow, Scherzer, Hochevar and Kennedy were very similar (though I don't remember Kennedy being in discussion for No. 1)

They should have just taken Evan Longoria and dealt with the rest, positions be damned.

**Saul Good** · 03-13-2013, 01:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Man, that draft sucked.

Evan Longoria was the only guy who was projected as a sure major league type.

Kershaw was a LH high school pitcher, and no LH high school pitcher has ever made it to the majors after being selected No. 1 overall.

Lincecum is a tiny, unconventional guy. His body lasted 2-4 more years than most expected, but it appears to be breaking down now.

Morrow, Scherzer, Hochevar and Kennedy were very similar (though I don't remember Kennedy being in discussion for No. 1)

They should have just taken Evan Longoria and dealt with the rest, positions be damned.

No pitcher drafted #1 had ever been very good before David Price.

duncan_idaho · 03-13-2013, 01:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saul Good

No pitcher drafted #1 had ever been very good before David Price.

I wouldn't go that far.

Floyd Bannister - was never great but pitched in the majors for 15 years and made one all-star team

Mike Moore - also was never really great, but was a key cog of Oakland's staff during the late 80s/early 90s run and had some very great seasons for them. Was basically a league average guy over the course of his career. Also made a few all-star teams.

Tim Belcher - Was an elite pitcher in several seasons and a key cog behind Orel Hershiser when the Dodgers won the WS.

Andy Benes - Was a solid No. 2/3 starter for several years in San Diego, got hurt, then was a solid No. 2/3 starter for several years in St. Louis. Several all-star appearances.

There were 12 pitchers taken No. 1 between the start of the draft and Price. This includes a long period - strike to recent CBA - in which the best guy often slipped because of signability issues.

4/12 success rate isn't great, but it's not awful for MLB drafting, either.

If you include the 3 guys taken SINCE Price (Price, Strasburg and Cole), your success rate increase to 6/15.

(I'm bored, can you tell?)

**DeezNutz** · 03-13-2013, 02:22 PM

I'm not taking a pitcher at 1/1 in the MLB draft, pretty much no matter the talent level of the pitcher.

There HAS to be a stud position player in the draft, and the organization MUST find him. Pitchers are too fragile (given the unnatural act of throwing a baseball) and often too psychologically pussy to justify that type of investment.

No thanks.

duncan_idaho · 03-13-2013, 02:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeezNutz

I'm not taking a pitcher at 1/1 in the MLB draft, pretty much no matter the talent level of the pitcher.

There HAS to be a stud position player in the draft, and the organization MUST find him. Pitchers are too fragile (given the unnatural act of throwing a baseball) and often too psychologically pussy to justify that type of investment.

No thanks.

I'm willing to make exceptions.

Maybe not for Gerrit Cole, but if a Strasburg or David Price is sitting there? I'll take a swing. I think the likelihood of GREAT college pitchers becoming more common in the MLB draft is going to go up with the new CBA. More guys will go to college rather than accept a late-round, over-slot deal.

If you're playing the percentages, college hitter is the least likely to bust. Followed closely by HS hitter and college pitcher (which are very close). HS pitcher has, by far, the WORST success rate.

**DeezNutz** · 03-13-2013, 02:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

I'm willing to make exceptions.

Maybe not for Gerrit Cole, but if a Strasburg or David Price is sitting there? I'll take a swing. I think the likelihood of GREAT college pitchers becoming more common in the MLB draft is going to go up with the new CBA. More guys will go to college rather than accept a late-round, over-slot deal.

If you're playing the percentages, college hitter is the least likely to bust. Followed closely by HS hitter and college pitcher (which are very close). HS pitcher has, by far, the WORST success rate.

Strasburg is the exact reason why I'm not particularly interested in the position. Highly projectible, insanely talented, relatively "safe," and he still loses a year to Tommy Johns.

The counter-argument for my stance, however, is that the first round in '09 was a complete bag of shit for position players not named Trout.

duncan_idaho · 03-13-2013, 02:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeezNutz

Strasburg is the exact reason why I'm not particularly interested in the position. Highly projectible, insanely talented, relatively "safe," and he still loses a year to Tommy Johns.

The counter-argument for my stance, however, is that the first round in '09 was a complete bag of shit for position players not named Trout.

I understand. It's a stance similar to Dayton Moore's, supposedly (though it has become clear the Hochevar pick was one of HIS picks).

I figure the 3-4 great years you get from a guy like Stras are worth it, even if he falls apart physically (a la Mark Prior).

Fansy the Famous Bard · 03-13-2013, 02:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

If you're playing the percentages, college hitter is the least likely to bust. Followed closely by HS hitter and college pitcher (which are very close). HS pitcher has, by far, the WORST success rate.

Unfortunately, Our run on selecting pitching in the first round lasted a long, long time.

Starting in 1992 we selected James Pittsley in the 1st, followed by Jeff Granger in 1993.. '97, (two in) '98, (two again in) '99, '00, '01, '02, '04, and '06.

That's a lot of pitching at the top of the draft, and probably why we're still stuck with the curse of the Balboni.

**DeezNutz** · 03-13-2013, 02:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

I understand. It's a stance similar to Dayton Moore's, supposedly (though it has become clear the Hochevar pick was one of HIS picks).

I figure the 3-4 great years you get from a guy like Stras are worth it, even if he falls apart physically (a la Mark Prior).

I feel like I have to rethink everything now at this point. You've essentially said, "Fair point. Decent argument to have, and CoMo agrees with it completely."

Yeah, Hoch was always DM's. Common sense demands it, though professional "ethics" meant that he couldn't admit publicly to it.

Fansy the Famous Bard · 03-13-2013, 02:59 PM

Oh, and forgot to mention, out of those 12 1st round pitching selections... Only one became a Major League success... Zach Greinke.

AndChiefs · 03-13-2013, 03:22 PM

Frenchy the rally killer.

duncan_idaho · 03-13-2013, 03:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zeke

Unfortunately, Our run on selecting pitching in the first round lasted a long, long time.

Starting in 1992 we selected James Pittsley in the 1st, followed by Jeff Granger in 1993.. '97, (two in) '98, (two again in) '99, '00, '01, '02, '04, and '06.

That's a lot of pitching at the top of the draft, and probably why we're still stuck with the curse of the Balboni.

Herk Robinson was epic bad at the MLB draft. And the Royals were CHEAP with a lot of those selections, too. Hard to draft great talent when you're not willing to pay it.

WhawhaWhat · 03-13-2013, 04:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by duncan_idaho

Herk Robinson was epic bad at the MLB draft. And the Royals were CHEAP with a lot of those selections, too. Hard to draft great talent when you're not willing to pay it.

Hard to blame Herk for the bad drafting when he was handcuffed as bad as he was. The Royals were completely gutted during his tenure and I don't think that was his call. Maybe his job to execute the plan, but not the plan itself.

Al Bundy · 03-13-2013, 04:17 PM

DannyKnoblerCBS ‏@DKnobler

Interesting (and surprising) on Hochevar: Teams that asked about trading for him were told Royals wanted quite a bit in return.

12-11-2012, 09:59 AM
duncan_idaho M-I-Z-Z-O-U Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Kansas City Casino cash: $1790308	2013 Kansas City Royals Repository Thread Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise. Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk. At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor. Burning questions updates below. Burning Questions for 2013: 1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation? Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory. 2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door? Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster. 3) Does Hosmer bounce back? Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far. 4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012? Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go. 5) Who regresses? Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years. 6) Who plays 2B? Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it. 7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level? Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha 8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014? Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014. 9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse? Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before. 10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers? Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it? Last edited by duncan_idaho; 07-15-2013 at 10:01 AM..
Posts: 21,073

03-13-2013, 12:34 PM	#1441
bsp4444 Veteran Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Liberty, MO Casino cash: $1705305	I'd like to see Will Smith get a shot at the 5th spot. A left hander sure would be nice.
Posts: 1,911

03-13-2013, 02:59 PM	#1451
Fansy the Famous Bard I'm with the Banned Join Date: Feb 2009 Casino cash: $2416440	Oh, and forgot to mention, out of those 12 1st round pitching selections... Only one became a Major League success... Zach Greinke. __________________ Hi.
Posts: 6,032

03-13-2013, 03:22 PM	#1452
AndChiefs Bazinga! Join Date: Sep 2005 Location: Houston, TX Casino cash: $1691820	Frenchy the rally killer. __________________
Posts: 5,476

03-13-2013, 04:17 PM	#1455
Al Bundy Damnit Peg Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Overland Park Casino cash: $5391831	DannyKnoblerCBS ‏@DKnobler Interesting (and surprising) on Hochevar: Teams that asked about trading for him were told Royals wanted quite a bit in return.
Posts: 23,315