If the Chiefs go 8-8 or better 49ers get a 2nd round pick.

[ShowtimeSBMVP]

A third- or second-rounder from Kansas City, the remnant of the Alex Smith deal. Now it can be told: The second draft choice San Francisco will receive from the Smith deal will be K.C.'s second-rounder in 2014 if the Chiefs go 8-8 or better this season. It will be a third-rounder in 2014 if Kansas City is under .500 this season.

So: San Francisco will probably have first-, second- and four third-rounders next year. But if the Chiefs surprise, it'll more likely be a one, two twos and three threes. As we've seen, GM Trent Baalke is dangerous with extra picks in his hands. If Colin Kaepernick is very good, the Niners should be annual contenders for years with the picks laid out that way.

Read More: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/nfl...#ixzz2SWCd8Gea

[milkman]

Originally Posted by patteeu

What do you consider "playoff success" for the purpose of this prediction?

For the purpose of definition for this discussion, 3 playoff appearances in 5 years, minimum, with at least one run to the conference championship.

Originally Posted by Tribal Warfare

It's hard to be serviceable when Alex can't stay on the field after a big hit.

He isn't nearly as fragile as your dumb ass keeps trying to paint him.

Originally Posted by Messier

This all comes down to will a rookie become better than between 10th and 20th best in the league. I don't think so. Alex Smith, I believe, is the best QB on a new team, rookie or vet.

See, I don't agree.

I believe, still, that both Geno and Matt Barkley will become better than Alex Smith.

I would have taken Geno 1.1 and let him sit for a year.
This idea that you have to get your high draft pick QB on the field right away is a relatively new idea.
I still think that if you believe a QB has the potential to be an elite QB, you take him high, even if you believe he won't be ready right away.

Originally Posted by splatbass

I still don't understand the whole "homegrown" thing. It makes absolutely no difference if you win with a homegrown QB or you win with one you get from someone else. The only thing that matters is if you win. Is it an ego thing?

Generally speaking, bringing in someone else's retread means you have a shorter window of opportunity with that guy than a homegrown QB.

Originally Posted by splatbass

I don't think that is it. Winning is all that matters to me. Where the QB comes from does not matter. Len Dawson was not a homegrown QB. He was an NFL failure that moved to the AFL in Dallas, and made it to KC from there.

I think the "homegrown" thing is a hometown pride thing. But I left my hometown of KC 29 years ago, so I feel no need to have pride in KC. I'm loyal to the team, not the city. I want to win, I don't need to win with a homegrown QB.

Dawson wasn't a failure before he signed with KC.
He simply never had the opportunity, because he was behind a couple of established starters in th NFL.

Originally Posted by jd34

The only reason Alex Smith even became available from SF was because Colin Kaepernick turned out to be far more than the "solid backup" first thought. Once the 49ers got rid of Jimmy Raye as OC, Alex Smith became a very different QB. His rating went over 90 and his winning percentage took his team to the playoffs. Along the way he beat Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan in playoff level games...and he did it with lesser WR talent than he will have here this coming season.

He may prove to be only a one or two year stop gap but I would be very surprised if that were the case. He is a guy who can take a team deep into the playoffs, and I expect him to do just that.

He beat the Saints defense.
And the games against the Pack and Falcons were not playoff games, nor were they playoff level.

[Messier]

I'm guessing that Reid and Dorsey feel, and I agree, that no QB from this class will become elite.

[Kaepernick]

Originally Posted by Saccopoo

Alex Smith is a game manager. A pretty good one at that who will be very effective with this team as it's currently built. This team needs a QB who is capable of taking care of the ball and not turning it over. Someone who will help control the time of possession and keep our dynamic pass rush fresh long into the game.

Matt Stafford is a strong arm QB that everyone slobbered over, and yet the Lions were back in the top five in the NFL draft. You don't necessarily need a guy like that to have an effective, winning team, which I think the Chiefs will be with Smith at QB.

I understand that people want the team to draft a QB. I certainly did. But it didn't happen. People need to understand that and objectively look at what this team did this off-season. We put together a pretty freaking good coaching staff and signed the best available QB that would also be the best available QB for the system that Reid is going to run. Smith was operating out of a West Coast system under Harbaugh and was putting up very good numbers and was effective in keeping the ball out of the defenses hands. He'll be that same guy here in Kansas City with Reid.

Bowe will be the best wide receiver Smith has ever worked with and should mesh exceptionally well in Reids offense with Smith. Charles will benefit and McCluster should have a breakout year if he figures out how to hold onto the ball. Everyone gets excited about Charles potentially setting NFL rushing records - well, with Smith at QB, he'll get his best chance in his career to do so. As well, with the offense controlling the clock and field position, Hali and Houston should see ample opportunities to get to the opposing quarterbacks, especially when it counts.

I understand that a 2nd in 2013 and another in 2014 is a steep price to pay for anyone, but those draft picks could end up in a rookie who doesn't pan out. With Smith, you know what you are getting - a very accurate, athletic quarterback who doesn't turn the ball over. A guy who will allow our big time playmakers to do just that - make plays while not costing the team in the process.

Besides, he set a 49er's record for 4th quarter comebacks in a single season in 2011. Yeah, the same team that had Joe Montana and Steve Young as QB's.

There were 6 4th quarter comebacks in 2011. Do your homework.

How many did Smith engineer passing, and how many were from Gore's running and the 49ers D getting turnovers?

I'll tell you.

Alex Smith passed his way to 2 of those comebacks. He put the team on his back.

2 of those 6 comebacks were Alex handing off to Gore, the D getting turnovers, the special teams getting turnovers or big returns.

The last 2 of those comebacks was Alex playing decent but Gore still grinding out most of the yards, the D still getting turnovers and special teams playing lights out.

Alex engineered 2 comebacks, assisted modestly in 2 more, and was dragged to wins in 2 others.

The bigger issue is that they needed 4th quarter comebacks with that Defense. Joe Montana and Steve Young would never have trailed in a game with a Defense that gave up their first rushing TD and first 100 yard rusher in game 16.

[milkman]

Originally Posted by Kaepernick

There were 6 4th quarter comebacks in 2011. Do your homework.

How many did Smith engineer passing, and how many were from Gore's running and the 49ers D getting turnovers.

I'll tell you.

Alex Smith passes his way to 2 of those comebacks.

2 of those 6 comebacks were Alex handing off to Gore, the D getting turnovers, the special teams getting turnovers or big returns.

The last 2 of those comebacks was Alex playing decent but Gore still grinding out most of the yards, the D still getting turnovers and special teams playing lights out.

Alex engineered 2 comebacks, assisted to modestly, and was dragged to the other 2 wins.

The bigger issue is that they needed 4th quarter comebacks with that Defense. Joe Montana and Steve Young would never have trailed in a game with a Defense that gave up their first rushing TD and first 100 yard rusher in game 16.

Uh....Those 9er defenses of the 80s and 90s were outstanding defenses.

Don't get carried away.

[Sweet Daddy Hate]

Originally Posted by Messier

I'm guessing that Reid and Dorsey feel, and I agree, that no QB from this class will become elite.

I'm guessing that Reid, and Reid alone, is hoping like all hells-bells that no QB in this class becomes elite, save Bray.
Posted via Mobile Device

[-King-]

Originally Posted by The Bad Guy

Stupid stat? Why does every god damn goal post have to be moved and a new criteria written for rules?

How did I move the goals? Tim Tebow had a bunch of comebacks as well. He had five 4th quarter comebacks and 6 game winning drives in just 11 starts. They have comebacks because despite the defense allowing less than 20 points, for 3 quarters they have led a shitty offense.


Just look at the games Alex Smith came back from and see if I'm wrong.

[Hootie]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

There is no way to explain the compensation they gave up and the lack of bringing in or drafting a potential replacement. They think they have the face of the franchise for the next 4-5. They aren't tied to that financially, but I'm sure that's what they believe.

There is an explanation. Clearly we had to outbid other teams. We did. I am pretty sure another team probably had a pretty good offer out there.

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by Hootie

There is an explanation. Clearly we had to outbid other teams. We did. I am pretty sure another team probably had a pretty good offer out there.

Thats not the point. The point is they wouldn't have paid that price for a 2 year rental even if other teams had better offers on the table. So either they view Alice as a 4 year option or they're damn fools to give up a 1st.

[OrtonsPiercedTaint]

1314 replies? really? Must have been an invasion of Alex Smithites.

[The Bad Guy]

Originally Posted by OrtonsPiercedTaint

1314 replies? really? Must have been an invasion of Alex Smithites.

Or a saturation of the same garbage.

We won't know dick about Alex Smith here, with this offense, and under a new coach, until games are played.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by The Bad Guy

Or a saturation of the same garbage.

We won't know dick about Alex Smith here, with this offense, and under a new coach, until games are played.

Really?

You really think Andy Reid is going to get MORE out of this guy?

This is the same kind of optimism that was rampant here last offseason, insisting that Cassel was going to improve.

The guy has been a checkdown artist his entire career. That's not changing.

[Smithsonian]

I feel that the price for QBs will always be a little higher than they're worth, all across the board whether good or bad.

32 starters in this league, and that's just the way it is.

I'm a 49er fan hoping to see the Chiefs do well more because I like Alex than the picks (that's just a bonus). Like Montana, some of us have become attached to the guy.

One interesting thing about Reid and QBs is that he has been accused of "fleecing" teams (Cardinals for Kolb, Redskins for McNabb) in QB trades. Now that he's on the receiving end of a QB deal and the consensus around the league is that he's been fleeced.......I'm not so sure about that.

The 49ers have won 20 out of 27 games in the Harbaugh era with him as starting QB, and whether you want to give all of the credit to his teammates or not, that's a hard thing to do. On top of that, last time Reid faced him he saw Smith overcome a 23-3 deficit to beat him.

Something that goes largely unmentioned:

$8 million for a starting QB. That's pretty cheap for a starting QB....only young bucks like Kaepernick, Luck, Wilson Griffin are better deals because of rookie contracts, but I can't see another better deal in this league than that. Sanchez is in around $15 million, I'm sure Fitzpatrick makes over $10 million, etc.

Smith probably ranks somewhere mid pack amongst all starting QBs, but that salary is high 20s for sure....

[Pasta Little Brioni]

Originally Posted by -King-

I hope he doesn't throw a lot more.

Think about it. He takes 50 sacks while attempting 450 passes. How many would he take attempting 550+? Whats the record for most sacks taken?

I'm going to say he'll take less sacks while throwing the ball more. Reid's system is VERY QB friendly. Alot of his extra throws will be screens to Dex, Jamaal, and Knile.

[OrtonsPiercedTaint]

How much did he get out of Garcia? He got a year out of Vick. Trouble is both had been decent before. Smith's year and a half out of 8 is requiring more faith than I have for another warmed over trade for.

[Sandy Vagina]

Originally Posted by The Bad Guy

Stupid stat? Why does every god damn goal post have to be moved and a new criteria written for rules?

If he doesn't win games, it's because he sucks. If he wins a playoff game, it doesn't really count because Tebow and Sanchez did it too.

If he leads a comeback in the 4th quarter, it's because he sucked for the other 3.

If you're optimistic, you must be an asshole who supports not drafting a QB.

Good ****ing Jesus. Do you really enjoy this on a daily basis?

Just wanted to say I liked this post.

... and yes, they must enjoy this on a daily basis. Every day, I see this thread bumped back up to the top, thanks to the same regurgitated wailing of the disgruntled, depressing handful.