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Old 09-26-2012, 08:12 PM  
cdcox cdcox is offline
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Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012

nfl-forecast.com is back for another season.

After Week 3
As of the moment, the Chiefs odds of making the playoffs are 10%.

The distribution of potential wins and draft picks will be shown in my next post.

Unfortunately, this season is shaping up to be a classic case of being Piolied by the Cassel maneuver.

Midway through Week 12

We have an 81% chance of getting the overall #1 pick.

We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time. If we beat Carolina and they lose out, we still get the #1 pick 75% of the time.

The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs.

Midway through week 13

As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick:

KC 55%
Jax 24%
Oakland 15%
Philly 4%
Field 2%

Midway through week 14

KC 55%
Jax 31%
Oakland 14%
Only 3 with decent odds.

Midway through week 15

KC 70%
Jac 30%
Oakland <<1%

KC guaranteed a top 3 spot

Midway through week 16

KC 92%
Jax 8%

Only way we don't get it is if we beat Denver and Jax loses to TN (barring ties).

Last edited by cdcox; 12-23-2012 at 03:26 PM..
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Old 12-16-2012, 06:13 PM   #346
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In sportsspeak, it's 110%...
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Old 12-16-2012, 06:17 PM   #347
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70% chance of #1 with guaranteed top 3 spot.
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Old 12-16-2012, 06:17 PM   #348
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cassel's Reckoning View Post
PERCENTAGE! NOW!!!
My guess: 65% for #1 pick... something like 95% that we get top 2 pick.
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Old 12-16-2012, 06:19 PM   #349
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
70% chance of #1 with guaranteed top 3 spot.
sweet, 70% .. I'll take that.

I'll admit, I am worried about Denver having nothing to play for and screwing us over by losing.
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Old 12-16-2012, 06:21 PM   #350
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Old 12-16-2012, 06:22 PM   #351
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sweet, 70% .. I'll take that.

I'll admit, I am worried about Denver having nothing to play for and screwing us over by losing.
I think Denver will be playing for a bye
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Old 12-16-2012, 06:23 PM   #352
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sweet, 70% .. I'll take that.

I'll admit, I am worried about Denver having nothing to play for and screwing us over by losing.
They're gonna be playing for seeding right?
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Old 12-16-2012, 06:24 PM   #353
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Originally Posted by kcpasco View Post
I think Denver will be playing for a bye
Depends on what happens tonight. If NE wins they move back into the 2 spot. If they win out they could possibly clinch the 2 seed during their 1PM game week 17. The Chiefs and Broncos don't play until 4, so we might already know by then.

That's probably the most likely scenario. Houston's not out of the woods yet either though. Denver got whipped by both Houston and NE though, so they aren't going to be winning any tiebreakers.
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Old 12-16-2012, 06:25 PM   #354
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IND needs to win, so this is great news for Chiefs fans.
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Old 12-16-2012, 06:25 PM   #355
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So we need the 49ers to win?
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Old 12-16-2012, 06:25 PM   #356
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Depends on what happens tonight. If NE wins they move back into the 2 spot. If they win out they could possibly clinch the 2 seed during their 1PM game at the end of the season. The Chiefs and Broncos don't play until 4, so we might already know by then.
who does NE play that day. maybe SNF will take it. heh
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Old 12-16-2012, 06:26 PM   #357
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As of now there is a 70% chance that the last Denver game means something to them.
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Old 12-16-2012, 06:28 PM   #358
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who does NE play that day. maybe SNF will take it. heh
Miami
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Old 12-16-2012, 06:28 PM   #359
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who does NE play that day. maybe SNF will take it. heh
They're at home against Miami.

Next week they are at Jacksonville... so if they can win tonight the odds are in their favor I'd say.

Houston is at home against Minnesota and then @Indy. They'd have to lose both though to fall behind Denver.
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Old 12-16-2012, 06:29 PM   #360
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Even if that Denver game means nothing to them, do you really think that this offense could score on Denver's 2nd string?

They just got shutout by the Raiders. One of the worst D's in the league.

This team is an epic shitpile.
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