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Old 08-05-2015, 01:00 PM  
frozenchief frozenchief is offline
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Can We Measure Alex Smith's Suckitude? Yes, we can!

Football Outsider's 2015 Analysis is now available. Excellent read as always. Chiefs are projected to get 7.9 wins. 34% chance of reaching post season. They spend a good portion of the article talking about how bad Smith is and how his wins are a very poor metric of how good he is as a QB. 1 of many money quotes:

Third down is where Smith’s conservatism may hurt his teams the most. Since 2011, Smith has taken the most third- down sacks (69) and has the worst sack rate (13.4 percent) among quarterbacks with at least 200 third-down passes. And when he’s not pulling the trigger, he’s firing too short. In 2014, Smith’s average third-down pass was thrown 2.3 yards short of the first-down marker, the shortest average in the league when compared to the needed yards for a first down. Aaron Rodgers had the longest average pass at 4.0 yards beyond the first-down marker. More than any quarterback in the league, Smith relies on his receivers to break tackles and gain yards after the catch to convert on third down. This metric is called Air Minus Need Differential (AMND). The average starting quarterback has an AMND of plus-1.4 since 2011. Smith’s minus-1.7 AMND is the lowest since 2011 among players with at least 300 attempts (Figure 2, next page). It’s as if Smith is playing a different sport than his peers.


Ah well. We can take comfort that we have Donald Stephenson as a starting tackle. Don't forget: he was the player taken one pick before Russell Wilson.
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Old 08-06-2015, 09:56 AM   #136
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Didn't want another Belcher situation with Smith.

Ha!
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Old 08-06-2015, 09:57 AM   #137
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Um, do you realize that Alex Smith hasn't had a losing record since 2010?
.
10-12 in his last 22.
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Old 08-06-2015, 09:58 AM   #138
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Old 08-06-2015, 09:59 AM   #139
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stop, Chiefs View Post
10-12 in his last 22.
Cherry pick why don't ya?
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Old 08-06-2015, 10:00 AM   #140
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Originally Posted by Stop, Chiefs View Post
10-12 in his last 22.

You can cherry pick any stat to fit your narrative. Anyone can. The bottom line is that since the start of 2011, teams qb'ed by Alex Smith win more than they lose. Winning record every season.

Did I say Alex Smith was the reason?

Nope. But he's a true leader, and you have to be that at qb.
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Old 08-06-2015, 10:00 AM   #141
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So? He was worth a shot.

Retread QBs aren't worth anything. They are proven wastes of time.
That is backwards thinking.

Roster had decent parts. You look for a good retread QB 1st. That falls through you say 'Is this QB worth getting and giving him a few years?'

2009 49ers met with Kurt Warner. Didn't sign, was a long shot that I doubt would of made enough of a difference because it was Gore's production and nothing else of note.

His 2 leading WRs in 08 Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin.
49ers Isaac Bruce and Bryant Johnson.

The roster was flat out ugly.

That is when you do 'He was worth a shot.'
That is why I was for taking Mark Sanchez if available in that draft. The team was multiple years from a winning record.

Correct me if I'm wrong but hasn't KC had winning records the past 2 years?
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Old 08-06-2015, 10:00 AM   #142
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Originally Posted by Stop, Chiefs View Post
10-12 in his last 22.
22 is an irrelevant number of games. Try 20-12 last two full seasons.

So tired of you throwing this out like it actually means anything.
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Old 08-06-2015, 10:01 AM   #143
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22 is an irrelevant number of games. Try 20-12 last two full seasons.

So tired of you throwing this out like it actually means anything.
I'm concerned that we have a losing record since the fraudulent fantasy of 9-0 ended.
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Old 08-06-2015, 10:02 AM   #144
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Originally Posted by Stop, Chiefs View Post
10-12 in his last 22.
But how did he look after his first two seasons? The third is the make or break, surely he lit the world on fire in his third season.

And we're still here pondering eight years later what may or may not become of him....
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Old 08-06-2015, 10:02 AM   #145
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10-12 in his last 22.
Let me know when schedules are 22 games a season.
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Old 08-06-2015, 10:04 AM   #146
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If Alex throws for 4500 yards I'll leave cp forever.
These promises are empty - we've heard them countless times.

The most amazing thing to me is I've never, since I started watching football in 89, witnessed a QB this intelligent and at the same time this timid.

Smart QB's know when to take that chance down field and when not to. They know when to run and when not to. They know when to throw it away and when to extend it for a few seconds more.

He seems to have everything but the attack mode.

I see this as Phat Andy and Alex in the offseason...

NSFW
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Old 08-06-2015, 10:04 AM   #147
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I'm concerned that we have a losing record since the fraudulent fantasy of 9-0 ended.

We. As in the team. And if there was ever a team that relies on the team to win, it's the Chiefs.
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Old 08-06-2015, 10:06 AM   #148
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Geno gets three years to prove that he gets it. Alice gets 11. Two different turds swirling the same bowl.
So much of this.

Geno's career gets written off as a failure after two years of shitty play with no difference given to the fact that he was a rookie with technique flaws and in need of an attitude adjustment on top of being drafted into the media **** scene that is the NY Jets run by Rex Ryan.

At the same time we are just told to believe that a decade of average at best play because of a mix of reasons ranging from Mike Nolan, injuries, Kyle Williams, the 2011 Giants and Adam Snyder isn't really a trend and that Alex Smith is going to net 4000 yards of passing with close to two dozen TDs and this is all going to dovetail with a single playoff win and that's just going to set up KC so nicely for next season.
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Old 08-06-2015, 10:06 AM   #149
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Best team in afc this year.

13-3.

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Old 08-06-2015, 10:06 AM   #150
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Let me know when schedules are 22 games a season.
Well, when we start 3-7 this year, he'll have a nice 13-19 stretch over the last 32 games. Two full seasons.

CAN'T WAIT.
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