Expectations and Alex Smith

[keg in kc]

Just curious. Inspired by the ongoing thread about "Geno fan" expectations, and I'm curious what the thinking is on the other side of the fence. What do people expect out of Alex Smith over the next, let's say, 2-5 years? Specifics, even, yardage and TDs, wins and losses, offensive rankings, etc. This is not a thread with an agenda, I'm genuinely curious what people think, so let's try to keep this from turning into snipe thread #368.

[penbrook]

I honestly believe we will trade back and take Jordan or Ansah..

[splatbass]

Originally Posted by O.city

If you trade Albert I don't think you trade back an run the risk of missing out on a lt. IMO, it's one or te other at this point.

This is a good year for LTs, you don't need to take one with 1.1. I think they will do both and get as many picks as possible if they get the chance. This is a golden opportunity for a new head coach. A team that already has a bunch of Pro Bowlers and a way to get a bunch of extra draft picks. This draft is not strong at the top, but is deep in the late first and second rounds.

[penbrook]

All right so what are we gonna wager for this bet?

[Ming the Merciless]

Originally Posted by penbook

All right so what are we gonna wager for this bet?

Loser≈bottom

[Hootie]

Originally Posted by BossChief

If we aren't gonna take a qb, and we aren't, then we should seriously trade back as many times as we can to stockpile as many first and second rounders this year and next as we possibly can.

In Vegas, you have to bet 3 dollars to win 1 if you bet that we are gonna take Joeckel at 1.

You get 2 for every dollar you bet that we are gonna take anything but Joeckel at 1.

Sad to say it, but Joeckel is gonna be the pick. Vegas knows.

When we took Berry he was 9/4...OL was 1/3

[whoman69]

7-9 first year. 9-7 out in the first round following.

[notorious]

Top 15 QB.

3500 yards. 20 TD. 10-15 INT. 8-8 to 11-5 seasons.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by splatbass

This is a good year for LTs, you don't need to take one with 1.1. I think they will do both and get as many picks as possible if they get the chance. This is a golden opportunity for a new head coach. A team that already has a bunch of Pro Bowlers and a way to get a bunch of extra draft picks. This draft is not strong at the top, but is deep in the late first and second rounds.

There are 3 LTs worth a shit in this draft. If we do in fact trade Albert we have to come out if this thing with one of them or next year could get pretty ugly. Teams that didnt sign a lt in free agency like the chargers are likely looking to move up to get one.

And while it isn't a bad thing to stockpile picks, they can also be overvalued

[splatbass]

Originally Posted by O.city

There are 3 LTs worth a shit in this draft. If we do in fact trade Albert we have to come out if this thing with one of them or next year could get pretty ugly. Teams that didnt sign a lt in free agency like the chargers are likely looking to move up to get one.

And while it isn't a bad thing to stockpile picks, they can also be overvalued

Yes, which proves my point that we don't need to pick OT at 1.1. We can move down a few picks and still get one of the three while acquiring draft picks. You aren't thinking big picture.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by splatbass

Yes, which proves my point that we don't need to pick OT at 1.1. We can move down a few picks and still get one of the three while acquiring draft picks. You aren't thinking big picture.

And you are thinking things are black and white. If we trade down to 8 which everyone is expected, the 3 could be gone by the time we pick with the lions eagles needed LTs and a team could ten jump ahead of us to take the last one.


So what's the big picture if you trade down, trade away your lt, and miss out on one there?

[jd1020]

Originally Posted by O.city

So what's the big picture if you trade down, trade away your lt, and miss out on one there?

Reid will probably look to keep his trading streak alive with Belichick and trade 1.8 to the Patriots for Ryan Mallett.

[FringeNC]

Originally Posted by keg in kc

The point isn't controversial at all. Alex Smith's capacity to be more than a game manager is what's in contention.

That's what SHOULD be in contention - can Alex Smith successfully make the transition from game manager to running Reid's pass-happy offense, yet most of the comments are suggesting the Smith will pass for 190 yards a game, or throw 5 times a half like Cassel.

[milkman]

What exactly are we measuring when we discuss YPA?

That, to me, is a metric for measuring efficiency.
I already know Alex Smith has been highly efficient in the last two seasons.
Efficient doesn't equal good.

What does his YPC look like, and how does that compare to others?

[patteeu]

Originally Posted by keg in kc

Trading for Alex Smith is a 'win now' move, and they're having minimal turnover on the roster (looks like Dorsey and Albert may be the only quality starters they lose). That tells us that this is not at all a rebuild situation like 2001 or 2009, that they believe in the players on this roster and that they believe a change in coaching will make the difference. There's no reason to give a year leeway to this group.

2001 was not a rebuilding year in the vein of 2009. It was a lot closer to what it looks like this year is shaping up to be. And with a new system being installed, it took Trent Green (who already knew the system) a year to get things going. I think it's reasonable to hope for the best in year 1 with Alex Smith but judge him on the results of year 2.

[loochy]

Originally Posted by whoman69

7-9 first year. 9-7 out in the first round following.

heh sounds about right