Gasoline at $4 Coming to a Pump Near You, Unfazed by Rising Tab

[Donger]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=afOlUzd30YOo

Pretty alarmist, IMO, but possible.

Spoiler!

April 23 (Bloomberg) -- Whether it's $50 to fill up your Prius or $130 for the Ford Expedition, $4-a-gallon gasoline is coming to a pump near you.

Fuel prices are rising at a pace not seen since Hurricanes Katrina and Rita knocked out a third of the U.S. oil refining industry in 2005. Gasoline consumption is climbing twice as fast as last year and will accelerate when summer travel begins late next month.

``What we're surprised by is the increased demand,'' said James Mulva, chief executive officer at ConocoPhillips, whose refineries from California to New Jersey produce 56 million gallons of gas a day, enough to meet 14 percent of the country's needs. ``Even though the price of gasoline is up, the demand is up,'' he said in an April 12 interview in Houston.

Population gains and U.S. economic growth are causing an increase in fuel purchases, according to Orlando, Florida-based AAA, the nation's largest organization for motorists. The U.S. economy will expand at a 2.4 percent annual pace in the second quarter, up from 1.8 percent in the first three months, according to the median estimate of 74 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Gasoline use is rising almost 5 percent above the five-year average.

Americans are resigned to higher prices, says David Pursell, a principal with Pickering Energy Partners, a consulting firm in Houston.

``Last year, we had pump prices well over $3 for the summer and gasoline demand was up,'' Pursell said in an interview. ``Would $4 gasoline cause demand contraction? I think it will, but I also thought $3 gasoline would.''

Pump Prices

Gasoline inventories, measured by the days of demand they will cover, are at the lowest level in two decades for this time of year because of refinery fires, power failures and maintenance work oil companies failed to complete in 2006. No new U.S. refinery has been built in three decades, increasing the strain on existing plants.

Pump prices in the U.S. may increase to $4 a gallon from a nationwide average of $2.87 today, especially if hurricanes threaten Gulf of Mexico refineries, says Peter Beutel, an analyst at Cameron Hanover Inc. in Stamford, Connecticut, who helps industrial consumers manage energy costs.

``Hurricanes are always the huge wild card,'' said Beutel. ``We're all praying for a year like 2006 rather than 2005.''

The June-to-November Atlantic Ocean hurricane season may produce 17 tropical storms, with nine reaching hurricane force and four becoming major hurricanes whose winds exceed 111 miles per hour (179 kilometers per hour), London-based forecasters at Tropical Storm Risk said. Some of the storms will strike the Gulf Coast this year after a benign 2006, AccuWeather.com predicted.

Inflation Risk

Higher pump prices will make winners of refinery owners such as ConocoPhillips, San Antonio-based Valero Energy Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell Plc of The Hague. Shares of Valero and Sunoco Inc., whose only business is refining, are rebounding after a decline at the end of last summer.

The increase in fuel costs threatens to quicken inflation and restrain consumer spending in the U.S. An appreciation to $4 a gallon would add more than $10 for a driver who fills the 12- gallon tank of a Toyota Motor Corp. Prius. The owner of an Expedition, a Ford Motor Co. sport-utility vehicle with a 34- gallon capacity, faces an increase of almost $40.

Many Americans have no choice but to drive more, says Christopher Knittel, an economist who studies fuel consumption at the University of California in Davis.

More Commuters

``We live farther from our jobs than we did in the 1970s, and with the rise of dual-income households, we now have two people who drive those distances every day,'' Knittel said.

Consumers also do more driving for things such as taking children to soccer practice, which they are unlikely to quit, he said. The U.S. population has increased 1 percent a year in the past decade to 301 million in 2007, adding to demand for gasoline, economists said.

Rising fuel prices make it less likely that Federal Reserve policy makers, who have cited inflation risks for the past year, will cut interest rates to spur economic growth. Before the hurricane-induced peak in 2005, U.S. gasoline topped out at $1.42 a gallon in March 1981, or $3.21 when adjusted for inflation, according to the Energy Department.

Economies in Europe and Asia are less likely to be hurt by gasoline prices because fuel already is subject to high taxes designed to encourage conservation. A gallon of unleaded costs about 3.25 pounds a gallon ($6.49) in the U.K., and in Japan it's 130.3 yen per liter ($4.16 a gallon).

$4 Barrier

U.S. consumers will get little relief on gasoline prices from Europe this year, unlike 2005, when oil companies shipped more across the Atlantic after the hurricanes. Europe's gasoline inventories in February were 114.2 million barrels, down 11 percent from two years earlier, according to the International Energy Agency in Paris. The drop in Europe was almost twice the 5.7 percent decline in U.S. supplies in that time.

``Just as we used to think $3 a gallon was an impenetrable barrier, now it's $4,'' said Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland School of Business in College Park and former chief economist for the U.S. International Trade Commission. Gasoline at $3.50 is likely, Morici said, and a conflict with Iran or any event that disrupts crude supplies may push it to $4.

Pump prices rose 33 percent in the past 11 weeks, the fastest rate of gain since a six-week, 34 percent rally to the record $3.069 in September 2005, Energy Department data show.

Bodman's `Worry'

U.S. Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman in an interview last week said the national average pump price could break the record this summer. While his agency's official forecast is for gasoline to peak next month at about where it is today, hurricanes, refinery closures or crude oil supply cuts may send prices higher, he said.

Higher prices are ``a legitimate worry,'' Bodman said. ``We have trouble spots all over the world'' that could boost crude oil prices. ``We're in a very tight situation.''

Spending on fuel in the U.S. consumes half as much household income as in the early 1980s, which means gasoline would need to reach almost $6 a gallon to have the same effect on the economy as in 1981, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

Storage tanks at U.S. refineries, terminals and ports hold enough gasoline to cover almost 22 days of domestic demand, 8.2 percent less than the five-year average and the lowest for this time of year since the 1980s, Energy Department figures show.

Shortages

Valero-owned filling stations in Denver and Colorado Springs, Colorado, ran dry after a Feb. 16 explosion and fire shut the company's McKee refinery in Sunray, Texas. A day earlier, a blaze at an Exxon Mobil Corp. plant in Nanticoke, Ontario, slashed output, resulting in shortages and higher prices across eastern Canada.

The McKee shutdown strained supplies so much that ConocoPhillips postponed maintenance at its Borger, Texas, refinery north of Amarillo to prevent shortages in the region.

``Refineries are becoming more complex,'' Mulva said in the Houston interview. ``What we're finding is it's more difficult keeping reliability up with more sophisticated pieces of equipment that are highly integrated.''

Tesoro Corp. of San Antonio, the second-largest refiner in the western U.S., said first-quarter refinery use dropped because oil companies delayed until this year maintenance that could have been done in 2006. The portion of U.S. refining capacity that was in operation in the first quarter declined to 87.3 percent from 88.9 percent a year earlier, according to Energy Department data.

`Refineries Blow Up'

``Prices will depend entirely on whether we have a couple of refineries blow up,'' said Philip K. Verleger, an economist who runs a consulting firm in Newport Beach, California. ``It's almost impossible we'll get to $4 a gallon if all the refineries run well this summer. But if something happens and there are problems, then anything's possible.''

The average share gain for Valero, Tesoro and six other oil-refining companies is 26 percent this year, outperforming the 4.1 percent gain for Exxon Mobil and a 4.7 percent increase for the Standard & Poor's 500 index.

The shares will continue to rally, said Paul Carlson, who helps manage $3 billion at HGK Asset Management in Jersey City, New Jersey.

``Refiners are doing very well these days,'' said Carlson, whose holdings include ConocoPhillips, the second-biggest U.S. refiner. ``There will be lots of demand for any new refining stocks.''

`Back in Favor'

As recently as August, investors were selling oil refiners on concern an economic slowdown would slash fuel demand in the U.S., the world's largest energy market. During seven weeks last August and September, Valero shares fell 29 percent, wiping out $12 billion in market value.

``Refining is very much back in favor,'' said Douglas Ober, who helps oversee $2.3 billion at Baltimore-based Adams Express Co. ``Even with higher prices, we haven't seen any substantial cutback in demand. They're cranking out as much of this stuff as they can, and we're throwing it in our tanks as fast as we can.''

The margin earned from processing crude oil into fuels rose to $24.68 a barrel on April 11, the highest since right after the hurricanes in September 2005. The margin has since retreated to $22.12 a barrel, still about double the five-year average.

``It'll be a fairly tight gasoline market all through the summer,'' said Robert Hinckley, an analyst at Rochdale Securities in New York.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by petegz28

I'm saying they could have worked out the deal they knew they were going to have to inevitably work out prior to any strike. Instead they chose to let it go on for a while as it gave them a bump in their gas prices without a similar bump in the cost of oil.

Why is it so ****ing hard for you to understand it's all about them making their money? And ironically this all happened at a time when they were all bitching about low oil prices. They saw a short term opportunity and exploited it.

Do you have any evidence that Shell or any of the others stalled working out a deal with USW? This is just a theory, right? One that begins with a "C"?

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Donger

Do you have any evidence that Shell or any of the others stalled working out a deal with USW? This is just a theory, right? One that begins with a "C"?

You got me Donger. As it is with the Fed Gov, corporate board rooms are on the level about every thing.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by petegz28

You got me Donger. As it is with the Fed Gov, corporate board rooms are on the level about every thing.

I'm just asking. I just think it's interesting that you'd think they would do that. If the energy companies really wanted to artificially increase the cost of gasoline, they'd slow down production of crude.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Donger

I'm just asking. I just think it's interesting that you'd think they would do that. If the energy companies really wanted to artificially increase the cost of gasoline, they'd slow down production of crude.

That is not true at all. They'll do whatever it is they have to do at the time.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by petegz28

That is not true at all. They'll do whatever it is they have to do at the time.

Like conspiring with the USW strikers?

Of course the energy companies are going to try to maximize PM, just like every other business. I also realize that energy companies and fuel prices get people agitated for whatever reason(s). But there is NO evidence at all that the conspiracy you suggest above happened. And, it looks like not all the strikers are going to accept the deal anyway. Sorry, I mean Shell and the others reneged or something...

[Donger]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...0MC1RT20150316

(Reuters) - A tentative national agreement to end a six-week strike at twelve U.S. refineries has struggled to win ratification at eight plants as workers and companies struggle to settle local issues, according to union officials.

The deal reached on Thursday by the United Steelworkers (USW) and lead industry negotiator Royal Dutch Shell Plc to end the biggest walkout of its kind in 35 years is showing signs of quick passage at just four plants.

The four sites where the deal is finding support and progress is being made on local issues are at facilities owned or co-owned by Shell.

Workers at these plants, which include three Motiva Enterprises refineries, have scheduled or are expected to hold votes this week to ratify the agreement. They could be back at work next week.

But local labor talks were stalled at other plants as union chapters try to address issues not covered by the national deal that defines rules for pay, healthcare and safety.

The delays mean companies will have to continue relying on temporary workers to keep their plants running. The stoppages affected plants with a fifth of U.S. crude processing capacity.

"(The)fight continues at Tesoro, Lyondell, BP, Marathon and others still face challenges with local issues," the USW said Sunday.

Lyondell Basell Industries broke off negotiations on Saturday with the USW chapter from its Houston refinery, the union said.

The company halted talks claiming 'the Union needed a cooling off period,'" USW local 13-227 said in a letter to its members.

It said the company negotiators provided no further explanation. Lyondell spokesman George Smalley said the company would not comment for now.

A source familiar with the talks said the company may be waiting to see if more workers cross the picket line at the plant. About 10 percent of the more than 400 workers represented by USW local 13-227 have returned to work there.

On Friday, the USW said a strike at the Marathon Petroleum Corp's Galveston Bay Refinery in Texas City, Texas, would continue at least until the company agrees to accept the national settlement reached last week

A Marathon spokesman said the company would be meeting with the union but would have no further comment.

Other strikes are at three Tesoro Corp West Coast refineries, BP Plc's Whiting, Indiana refinery and BP's joint-venture refinery in Toledo, Ohio with Husky Energy.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Donger

Like conspiring with the USW strikers?

Of course the energy companies are going to try to maximize PM, just like every other business. I also realize that energy companies and fuel prices get people agitated for whatever reason(s). But there is NO evidence at all that the conspiracy you suggest above happened. And, it looks like not all the strikers are going to accept the deal anyway. Sorry, I mean Shell and the others reneged or something...

Who said they were conspiring with the USW?? Damn, dude, keep up.

I said they refused to negotiate a deal they knew they were going to have to negotiate. That is not conspiring with the USW. That's exploiting them. No wonder you suck at this.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by petegz28

Who said they were conspiring with the USW?? Damn, dude, keep up.

I said they refused to negotiate a deal they knew they were going to have to negotiate. That is not conspiring with the USW. That's exploiting them. No wonder you suck at this.

I was just seeing how far the conspiracy went. How do you know that the strikers and Shell aren't?

Now that that's out of the way, how do you explain that some of the strikers have agreed to the deal and others haven't? That's all the fault of the energy companies, right?

[Donger]

Anyway, just as a reference point, crude hit $32.80 as a low back in December 2008, during the recession. It would be stunning if that point is reached just on fundamentals.

[WilliamTheIrish]

Originally Posted by petegz28

It jumped .06 overnight

Where? It dropped at least 3c overnight on the eastern edge of KC.

[BigMeatballDave]

Gas jumped 20 cents here yesterday after dropping 30 the 2 weeks prior.

2.37

[Donger]

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Oil futures jumped past $50 a barrel on Thursday, headed for their fifth straight daily gain as Saudi Arabian airstrikes in Yemen raised fresh concerns over potential disruptions to crude supplies.

May crude CLK5, +1.79% climbed 98 cents, or 2%, to $50.19 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It hit an intraday high of $52.48 a barrel, according to FactSet data.

[petegz28]

Originally Posted by Donger

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Oil futures jumped past $50 a barrel on Thursday, headed for their fifth straight daily gain as Saudi Arabian airstrikes in Yemen raised fresh concerns over potential disruptions to crude supplies.

May crude CLK5, +1.79% climbed 98 cents, or 2%, to $50.19 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It hit an intraday high of $52.48 a barrel, according to FactSet data.

Never realized how much oil Yemen produced......

[Donger]

Crude back up to $55.00

Sorry.

[Hydrae]

Gas prices have jumped 12 cents the last couple of days here.