Gasoline at $4 Coming to a Pump Near You, Unfazed by Rising Tab

[Donger]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=afOlUzd30YOo

Pretty alarmist, IMO, but possible.

Spoiler!

April 23 (Bloomberg) -- Whether it's $50 to fill up your Prius or $130 for the Ford Expedition, $4-a-gallon gasoline is coming to a pump near you.

Fuel prices are rising at a pace not seen since Hurricanes Katrina and Rita knocked out a third of the U.S. oil refining industry in 2005. Gasoline consumption is climbing twice as fast as last year and will accelerate when summer travel begins late next month.

``What we're surprised by is the increased demand,'' said James Mulva, chief executive officer at ConocoPhillips, whose refineries from California to New Jersey produce 56 million gallons of gas a day, enough to meet 14 percent of the country's needs. ``Even though the price of gasoline is up, the demand is up,'' he said in an April 12 interview in Houston.

Population gains and U.S. economic growth are causing an increase in fuel purchases, according to Orlando, Florida-based AAA, the nation's largest organization for motorists. The U.S. economy will expand at a 2.4 percent annual pace in the second quarter, up from 1.8 percent in the first three months, according to the median estimate of 74 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Gasoline use is rising almost 5 percent above the five-year average.

Americans are resigned to higher prices, says David Pursell, a principal with Pickering Energy Partners, a consulting firm in Houston.

``Last year, we had pump prices well over $3 for the summer and gasoline demand was up,'' Pursell said in an interview. ``Would $4 gasoline cause demand contraction? I think it will, but I also thought $3 gasoline would.''

Pump Prices

Gasoline inventories, measured by the days of demand they will cover, are at the lowest level in two decades for this time of year because of refinery fires, power failures and maintenance work oil companies failed to complete in 2006. No new U.S. refinery has been built in three decades, increasing the strain on existing plants.

Pump prices in the U.S. may increase to $4 a gallon from a nationwide average of $2.87 today, especially if hurricanes threaten Gulf of Mexico refineries, says Peter Beutel, an analyst at Cameron Hanover Inc. in Stamford, Connecticut, who helps industrial consumers manage energy costs.

``Hurricanes are always the huge wild card,'' said Beutel. ``We're all praying for a year like 2006 rather than 2005.''

The June-to-November Atlantic Ocean hurricane season may produce 17 tropical storms, with nine reaching hurricane force and four becoming major hurricanes whose winds exceed 111 miles per hour (179 kilometers per hour), London-based forecasters at Tropical Storm Risk said. Some of the storms will strike the Gulf Coast this year after a benign 2006, AccuWeather.com predicted.

Inflation Risk

Higher pump prices will make winners of refinery owners such as ConocoPhillips, San Antonio-based Valero Energy Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell Plc of The Hague. Shares of Valero and Sunoco Inc., whose only business is refining, are rebounding after a decline at the end of last summer.

The increase in fuel costs threatens to quicken inflation and restrain consumer spending in the U.S. An appreciation to $4 a gallon would add more than $10 for a driver who fills the 12- gallon tank of a Toyota Motor Corp. Prius. The owner of an Expedition, a Ford Motor Co. sport-utility vehicle with a 34- gallon capacity, faces an increase of almost $40.

Many Americans have no choice but to drive more, says Christopher Knittel, an economist who studies fuel consumption at the University of California in Davis.

More Commuters

``We live farther from our jobs than we did in the 1970s, and with the rise of dual-income households, we now have two people who drive those distances every day,'' Knittel said.

Consumers also do more driving for things such as taking children to soccer practice, which they are unlikely to quit, he said. The U.S. population has increased 1 percent a year in the past decade to 301 million in 2007, adding to demand for gasoline, economists said.

Rising fuel prices make it less likely that Federal Reserve policy makers, who have cited inflation risks for the past year, will cut interest rates to spur economic growth. Before the hurricane-induced peak in 2005, U.S. gasoline topped out at $1.42 a gallon in March 1981, or $3.21 when adjusted for inflation, according to the Energy Department.

Economies in Europe and Asia are less likely to be hurt by gasoline prices because fuel already is subject to high taxes designed to encourage conservation. A gallon of unleaded costs about 3.25 pounds a gallon ($6.49) in the U.K., and in Japan it's 130.3 yen per liter ($4.16 a gallon).

$4 Barrier

U.S. consumers will get little relief on gasoline prices from Europe this year, unlike 2005, when oil companies shipped more across the Atlantic after the hurricanes. Europe's gasoline inventories in February were 114.2 million barrels, down 11 percent from two years earlier, according to the International Energy Agency in Paris. The drop in Europe was almost twice the 5.7 percent decline in U.S. supplies in that time.

``Just as we used to think $3 a gallon was an impenetrable barrier, now it's $4,'' said Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland School of Business in College Park and former chief economist for the U.S. International Trade Commission. Gasoline at $3.50 is likely, Morici said, and a conflict with Iran or any event that disrupts crude supplies may push it to $4.

Pump prices rose 33 percent in the past 11 weeks, the fastest rate of gain since a six-week, 34 percent rally to the record $3.069 in September 2005, Energy Department data show.

Bodman's `Worry'

U.S. Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman in an interview last week said the national average pump price could break the record this summer. While his agency's official forecast is for gasoline to peak next month at about where it is today, hurricanes, refinery closures or crude oil supply cuts may send prices higher, he said.

Higher prices are ``a legitimate worry,'' Bodman said. ``We have trouble spots all over the world'' that could boost crude oil prices. ``We're in a very tight situation.''

Spending on fuel in the U.S. consumes half as much household income as in the early 1980s, which means gasoline would need to reach almost $6 a gallon to have the same effect on the economy as in 1981, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

Storage tanks at U.S. refineries, terminals and ports hold enough gasoline to cover almost 22 days of domestic demand, 8.2 percent less than the five-year average and the lowest for this time of year since the 1980s, Energy Department figures show.

Shortages

Valero-owned filling stations in Denver and Colorado Springs, Colorado, ran dry after a Feb. 16 explosion and fire shut the company's McKee refinery in Sunray, Texas. A day earlier, a blaze at an Exxon Mobil Corp. plant in Nanticoke, Ontario, slashed output, resulting in shortages and higher prices across eastern Canada.

The McKee shutdown strained supplies so much that ConocoPhillips postponed maintenance at its Borger, Texas, refinery north of Amarillo to prevent shortages in the region.

``Refineries are becoming more complex,'' Mulva said in the Houston interview. ``What we're finding is it's more difficult keeping reliability up with more sophisticated pieces of equipment that are highly integrated.''

Tesoro Corp. of San Antonio, the second-largest refiner in the western U.S., said first-quarter refinery use dropped because oil companies delayed until this year maintenance that could have been done in 2006. The portion of U.S. refining capacity that was in operation in the first quarter declined to 87.3 percent from 88.9 percent a year earlier, according to Energy Department data.

`Refineries Blow Up'

``Prices will depend entirely on whether we have a couple of refineries blow up,'' said Philip K. Verleger, an economist who runs a consulting firm in Newport Beach, California. ``It's almost impossible we'll get to $4 a gallon if all the refineries run well this summer. But if something happens and there are problems, then anything's possible.''

The average share gain for Valero, Tesoro and six other oil-refining companies is 26 percent this year, outperforming the 4.1 percent gain for Exxon Mobil and a 4.7 percent increase for the Standard & Poor's 500 index.

The shares will continue to rally, said Paul Carlson, who helps manage $3 billion at HGK Asset Management in Jersey City, New Jersey.

``Refiners are doing very well these days,'' said Carlson, whose holdings include ConocoPhillips, the second-biggest U.S. refiner. ``There will be lots of demand for any new refining stocks.''

`Back in Favor'

As recently as August, investors were selling oil refiners on concern an economic slowdown would slash fuel demand in the U.S., the world's largest energy market. During seven weeks last August and September, Valero shares fell 29 percent, wiping out $12 billion in market value.

``Refining is very much back in favor,'' said Douglas Ober, who helps oversee $2.3 billion at Baltimore-based Adams Express Co. ``Even with higher prices, we haven't seen any substantial cutback in demand. They're cranking out as much of this stuff as they can, and we're throwing it in our tanks as fast as we can.''

The margin earned from processing crude oil into fuels rose to $24.68 a barrel on April 11, the highest since right after the hurricanes in September 2005. The margin has since retreated to $22.12 a barrel, still about double the five-year average.

``It'll be a fairly tight gasoline market all through the summer,'' said Robert Hinckley, an analyst at Rochdale Securities in New York.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by munkey

http://www.gasbuddy.com/GB_Map_Gas_Prices.aspx



They already have 4-4.10 listed...not on the map but stilll.

What are you trying to say?

[Donger]

Originally Posted by munkey

Donger -

I can understand your stance on the price of gas if we were in a country like England or Australia...IMO the problem is we live in a "wide open" country that up until last year has seen a product like gasoline inflate astronomically. Blame it on the war or refining...It matters not to me. I can tell you that where I live and work this "inflation" will send us into another depression.

I just purchased a new truck that I'm going to seriously consider selling or even give back to the bank...I bought it based on several factors but the price of gasoline rising over a dollar gallon was not one of them. If gas goes to 4 a gallon and I can't sell it the bank gets to deal with it IMO...

Owell...Freedom isn't free...right?

Like I said earlier, compared to other consumer items, gasoline hasn't risen that much over the last 25 years.

[munkey]

Originally Posted by Skip Towne

A banker once told me if he gets a repo he is legal to sell it for what he can get and the owner still owes the difference between the sale price and the note value. And the banker doesn't have to try hard to get top dollar.

Very true...BUT the judgement for the difference has no collateral...so what ever.

[munkey]

Originally Posted by Donger

What are you trying to say?

Not the right map...still cheaper here. Not for long I'm afraid.

[munkey]

Originally Posted by Donger

Like I said earlier, compared to other consumer items, gasoline hasn't risen that much over the last 25 years.

Compared to what? Bread? I can make that...

[Donger]

Originally Posted by munkey

Compared to what? Bread? I can make that...

You can make your own gasoline, too.

Anyway, here's a graphic for your viewing pleasure.

[Discuss Thrower]

People don't go through Food like they go through gasoline, and it's a slower rate for consumer products...

[Donger]

Originally Posted by J-Town Fan 1988

People don't go through Food like they go through gasoline, and it's a slower rate for consumer products...

Nonsense. The average family goes through something like $700/month in groceries.

I know people don't like it hearing it, but gasoline is still relatively cheap in this country.

[Skip Towne]

Originally Posted by munkey

Very true...BUT the judgement for the difference has no collateral...so what ever.

Just thought you would like to know "just giving it back to the bank" isn't really a good solution.

[Abba-Dabba]

Exxon's 39 billion in profit last year, the most ever by any company in history. 400 million in a retirement package to Lee Raymond, Exxon CEO. Total profits from all oil companies combined in 2006, 125 Billion.

Yeah, it sure is a supply and demand issue. My ass.

[Braincase]

I wonder how many years of $40.00 a barrel oil we could get out of OPEC if we pulled out of Iraq and turned Bush and Cheney over to the jihadists? IF we could get 4 years out of that deal, I think it'd about be worth it.

[Slick32]

Gasoline is produced based on supply and demand. That is a cornerstone of American business. In this case there seems to be some collusion with the major oil refineries across the country.

Another situation I feel is pertinent is the fact that we have not built a new refinery in the U.S. for almost 30 years. Either the regulations need to be reviewed to find out which of them needs to be revised or eliminated. Every refinery I've ever been around has hazardous waste and byproducts. There are safe ways to destroy both, but it seems like they are the hanging point when the topic of new facilities arise.

The closest I've heard of a new refinery is one that has been proposed near Cushing, OK.

I have one real question. Why is it that when the price of a barrel of crude oil goes up the price of gas at the pump immediately goes up and when the price of barrel of crude goes down it takes weeks for the price impact to "trickle" down to the consumer.

What makes the whole situation untenable for me is the fact that the major oil companies last year made billions of dollars of profit above their projections. They estimated their profits and exceeded them by as much as 60%.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Saggysack

Exxon's 39 billion in profit last year, the most ever by any company in history. 400 million in a retirement package to Lee Raymond, Exxon CEO. Total profits from all oil companies combined in 2006, 125 Billion.

Yeah, it sure is a supply and demand issue. My ass.

Yes, they made a killing.

I suppose you were jumping for joy when they were losing billions when the price of crude was $10 a barrel?

[Donger]

Originally Posted by Slick32

Gasoline is produced based on supply and demand. That is a cornerstone of American business. In this case there seems to be some collusion with the major oil refineries across the country.

Another situation I feel is pertinent is the fact that we have not built a new refinery in the U.S. for almost 30 years. Either the regulations need to be reviewed to find out which of them needs to be revised or eliminated. Every refinery I've ever been around has hazardous waste and byproducts. There are safe ways to destroy both, but it seems like they are the hanging point when the topic of new facilities arise.

The closest I've heard of a new refinery is one that has been proposed near Cushing, OK.

Correct. There two reasons why the oil companies haven't built one: profit and red tape. A new refinery would be a huge capital expense. Sure, they presently have the cash, but realizing a profit from a new refinery would take years. Also, our government has made building (let alone getting one approved) a refinery an extremely painful process. Environmental regulations, politics, etc. Instead, they have chosen to expand existing refineries to meet demand (and import refined gasoline).

Originally Posted by Slick32

I have one real question. Why is it that when the price of a barrel of crude oil goes up the price of gas at the pump immediately goes up and when the price of barrel of crude goes down it takes weeks for the price impact to "trickle" down to the consumer.

What makes the whole situation untenable for me is the fact that the major oil companies last year made billions of dollars of profit above their projections. They estimated their profits and exceeded them by as much as 60%.

The price goes up immediately because the retailers are considering what their replacement costs are going to be. They have to anticipate what that is going to be. For example, if the price of crude is going up and their next shipment needs to be purchased next week, they will start raising their prices in order to not lose money. They often don't raise it enough and actually lose money. Therefore, they try to make some back when prices drop by not dropping their prices as fast.

It all revolves around the price of crude, something that the oil companies do not control. They benefit from high crude prices, however.

[Skip Towne]

Why not build refineries in Mexico? Presto! No EPA.