Home Mail Chat Wallpapers
Go Back   ChiefsPlanet > The Lounge > Washington DC and The Holy Land

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 10-31-2016, 08:19 AM  
Prison Bitch Prison Bitch is online now
Where's my WALL?
 
Prison Bitch's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Lees summit
Casino cash: $60258
**Breaking: Trump+5 (OH), +4 (FL), +4 (NV), +2 (NC)

Axiom Strategies polling per Twitter

Posts: 51,461
Prison Bitch is obviously part of the inner Circle.Prison Bitch is obviously part of the inner Circle.Prison Bitch is obviously part of the inner Circle.Prison Bitch is obviously part of the inner Circle.Prison Bitch is obviously part of the inner Circle.Prison Bitch is obviously part of the inner Circle.Prison Bitch is obviously part of the inner Circle.Prison Bitch is obviously part of the inner Circle.Prison Bitch is obviously part of the inner Circle.Prison Bitch is obviously part of the inner Circle.Prison Bitch is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-31-2016, 03:08 PM   #61
Bwana Bwana is offline
It's Five O'Clock Somewhere
 
Bwana's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Billings, Montana
Casino cash: $2145484647
Quote:
Originally Posted by suzzer99 View Post
Axiom is a republican strategist, they're less accurate and more R-biased than Rasmussen. There's a reason why you haven't heard of them.
So in your mind where do you think the "real numbers" are at this point, where do you see them by the end of the week?
__________________
Adventure is dangerous....but monotony can kill you.
Posts: 59,101
Bwana is obviously part of the inner Circle.Bwana is obviously part of the inner Circle.Bwana is obviously part of the inner Circle.Bwana is obviously part of the inner Circle.Bwana is obviously part of the inner Circle.Bwana is obviously part of the inner Circle.Bwana is obviously part of the inner Circle.Bwana is obviously part of the inner Circle.Bwana is obviously part of the inner Circle.Bwana is obviously part of the inner Circle.Bwana is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-31-2016, 03:09 PM   #62
suzzer99 suzzer99 is offline
MVP
 
suzzer99's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: L.A.
Casino cash: $34384
I will defer to 538.com. I also follow a bunch of others who religiously follow polls, and bet large sums of money on elections, who think Trump's chance is a lot smaller than what Nate is giving him - more like 5-10%.

I just know Axiom/Remington is not a real polling outfit. http://citizensvoice.com/opinion/axi...tive-1.2069897

Quote:
Axiom Strategies is not a disinterested polling firm. It is a Republican consulting firm that creates polling numbers to support it’s stated mission, which is to “shape opinions ... command actions and affect change.” They continue, “And we do know how to win. It takes a model which leverages a combination of proven tactics to reach a desired audience on a level that moves opinions and compels action.” The firm was founded by one Jeff Roe, a longtime GOP political strategist, who has recently worked for Ted Cruz, among others.

Frankly, “shaping” and ”moving” opinions is the last thing an objective survey ought to be doing.

Axiom is not polling to objectively determine the state of the race: it is using a persuasive technique called (not surprisingly) “The Bandwagon Effect”: If you look like a winner, others will want to jump on the bandwagon. I don’t know if Axiom’s client is the Trump campaign itself, or one of the PACs supporting him, but you can be sure there is a Republican client paying for it.
Posts: 16,217
suzzer99 has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.suzzer99 has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.suzzer99 has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.suzzer99 has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.suzzer99 has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.suzzer99 has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.suzzer99 has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.suzzer99 has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.suzzer99 has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.suzzer99 has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.suzzer99 has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-31-2016, 03:12 PM   #63
Bwana Bwana is offline
It's Five O'Clock Somewhere
 
Bwana's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Billings, Montana
Casino cash: $2145484647
Quote:
Originally Posted by suzzer99 View Post
I will defer to 538.com. I also follow a bunch of others who religiously follow polls, and bet large sums of money on elections, who think Trump's chance is a lot smaller than what Nate is giving him - more like 5-10%.

I just know Axiom is not a real polling outfit. http://citizensvoice.com/opinion/axi...tive-1.2069897
Interesting, Trump talking now, live feed:

http://video.foxnews.com/v/255356509...#sp=watch-live
__________________
Adventure is dangerous....but monotony can kill you.
Posts: 59,101
Bwana is obviously part of the inner Circle.Bwana is obviously part of the inner Circle.Bwana is obviously part of the inner Circle.Bwana is obviously part of the inner Circle.Bwana is obviously part of the inner Circle.Bwana is obviously part of the inner Circle.Bwana is obviously part of the inner Circle.Bwana is obviously part of the inner Circle.Bwana is obviously part of the inner Circle.Bwana is obviously part of the inner Circle.Bwana is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-31-2016, 03:23 PM   #64
CoMoChief CoMoChief is offline
2017 AFC West Champions
 
CoMoChief's Avatar
 

Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: KCMO
Casino cash: $22354
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigMeatballBillay View Post
Anyone else think Wikileaks is saving the best for last?
They are...next one is supposed to be enough to where they will have no choice but to indict her.

Obama will try to pardon her because hes involved in this mess too.
__________________
The Factory of Sadness
Posts: 35,642
CoMoChief wants to die in a aids tree fire.CoMoChief wants to die in a aids tree fire.CoMoChief wants to die in a aids tree fire.CoMoChief wants to die in a aids tree fire.CoMoChief wants to die in a aids tree fire.CoMoChief wants to die in a aids tree fire.CoMoChief wants to die in a aids tree fire.CoMoChief wants to die in a aids tree fire.CoMoChief wants to die in a aids tree fire.CoMoChief wants to die in a aids tree fire.CoMoChief wants to die in a aids tree fire.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-31-2016, 03:55 PM   #65
RNR RNR is offline
America is great assholes~
 
RNR's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: In some people's mind~
Casino cash: $28090
Quote:
Originally Posted by hawkchief View Post
Not saying there aren't groupies here (on either side) just saying that the choice isn't a two-headed coin. While I dislike Trump, I don't know that he will perform treasonous acts like Clinton has or Obama likely has, so there's a big difference. Pretending that they are equally bad choices to justify a "D" vote is asinine. Sure, Trump is dislikable, and possibly a horrible President, but we'd have to wait to find out instead of knowingly electing a corrupt-to-the-core bitch that has no respect for American law and what it stands for.
I see no advantage with either one~
__________________
The Trump campaign and Black Lives Matter movement are perfect for each other. Both sides filled with easily led and angry nitwits convinced they are victims~
Posts: 31,085
RNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.RNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.RNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.RNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.RNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.RNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.RNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.RNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.RNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.RNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.RNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-31-2016, 03:57 PM   #66
RNR RNR is offline
America is great assholes~
 
RNR's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: In some people's mind~
Casino cash: $28090
Quote:
Originally Posted by CoMoChief View Post
They are...next one is supposed to be enough to where they will have no choice but to indict her.

Obama will try to pardon her because hes involved in this mess too.


__________________
The Trump campaign and Black Lives Matter movement are perfect for each other. Both sides filled with easily led and angry nitwits convinced they are victims~
Posts: 31,085
RNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.RNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.RNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.RNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.RNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.RNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.RNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.RNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.RNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.RNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.RNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-31-2016, 06:05 PM   #67
RNR RNR is offline
America is great assholes~
 
RNR's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: In some people's mind~
Casino cash: $28090
Quote:
Originally Posted by LiveSteam View Post
Pauly wanna cracker
**** off meth boy~
__________________
The Trump campaign and Black Lives Matter movement are perfect for each other. Both sides filled with easily led and angry nitwits convinced they are victims~
Posts: 31,085
RNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.RNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.RNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.RNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.RNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.RNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.RNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.RNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.RNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.RNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.RNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-31-2016, 06:14 PM   #68
suzzer99 suzzer99 is offline
MVP
 
suzzer99's Avatar
 

Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: L.A.
Casino cash: $34384
Quote:
Originally Posted by suzzer99 View Post
I will defer to 538.com. I also follow a bunch of others who religiously follow polls, and bet large sums of money on elections, who think Trump's chance is a lot smaller than what Nate is giving him - more like 5-10%.

I just know Axiom/Remington is not a real polling outfit. http://citizensvoice.com/opinion/axi...tive-1.2069897
FYI - this is lifted from the poker site where a lot of people study these polls pretty seriously and have bet massive amounts of money (some north of $100k)

The Clinton Firewall

Clinton has a set of states that are solidly in her column, which Trump will need to make inroads into to win. These states are CO, PA, NH, WI, MI and MN. Traditionally VA was included as well but that is now safe Clinton to an extent that takes it out of the conversation (RCP: C+8.0, 538: C+7.2).

Clinton's worst-case map with the Clinton Firewall holding looks like this:



So that's Trump's basic problem. He needs to somehow prevent that map from happening.

Why are we so sure those states are going Clinton?

Since July, in the RCP poll aggregator, Trump has virtually not led in any polls in any of these states. There was one in Michigan in August, two in Colorado in September, a few outliers basically. Nothing in any of the rest. Clinton has racked up a ton of polls showing her ahead. Here's how a couple of poll aggregators have the leads in the Firewall States:

RCP 538
CO +5.0% +4.6%
PA +5.0% +5.0%
NH +5.4% +5.4%
WI +5.7% +5.6%
MI +7.0% +5.3%
MN +4.6% +6.2%

These are serious leads this late in the campaign. Most voters have made up their minds by this point.

Basically we're looking at serious polling error, or some huge swing to Trump late in the campaign, or it looks like the Firewall will hold, tightening race or not. The problem with expecting the polls to be wrong is that they look to be correct based on early voting in OH, which is a good test for whether polls will hold across the rest of the Midwest.

The NV+NC insurance policy

Clinton is also showing leads in NV (RCP: C+1.5, 538: C+1.4) and in NC, which has been surprisingly strong for her (RCP: C+3.3, 538:C+1.3). Importantly, early voting has been going on there for some time, and the early voting numbers also show Clinton leading. This means a lot of her advantage there is baked in and provides an insurance policy against losing one of the Firewall States.

NC by itself will take care of losing anything except PA, adding NV to that also handles PA. One other scenario worth mentioning is that NV plus either NE-2 or ME-2 (the congressional districts worth 1 EV each) will handle the loss of CO without needing NC.

What about OH and FL?

On election night the networks will make a big deal out of these big traditional battleground states. They're really just icing on the cake for Clinton. If she wins either of them, the election is instantly over, but she doesn't need them if the Firewall is holding. OH looks to be going Trump, FL will be close.

The early states to watch are PA and NH. If they look to be holding comfortably for Clinton, then she's not going to have any worries.

Why does 538 give Trump such a big chance to win then?

538 use a methodology that builds a lot of uncertainty into polling numbers. Nate's justification for this is that we only have a small sample size of Presidential elections, which means that maybe we've just gotten lucky so far in terms of polling accuracy and haven't seen the tail of the distribution. In other words he's saying the chances of systematic polling error may be higher than we think. I don't buy this for a number of reasons, the most important of which is that early voting numbers are in line with polling.
Posts: 16,217
suzzer99 has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.suzzer99 has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.suzzer99 has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.suzzer99 has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.suzzer99 has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.suzzer99 has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.suzzer99 has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.suzzer99 has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.suzzer99 has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.suzzer99 has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.suzzer99 has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-31-2016, 06:17 PM   #69
Mr. Flopnuts Mr. Flopnuts is offline
FINALLY! The wait is over.
 
Mr. Flopnuts's Avatar
 

Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: The Future Is Now!!!
Casino cash: $9947665
Quote:
Originally Posted by hawkchief View Post
Most on here don't even like Trump, they are just smart enough to know he's a better choice than a government servant that's exposed American intelligence, contributed to the death of at least 4 of America's best and for years lied to the American public. Finally the Clinton machine will be seen for the corrupt pile of shit that it is and has been and our country can try and rebound from the criminality that has been the Clinton/Obama duo of deception.
He'll be on the fast track to a convicted child rapist shortly after the new year if he wins this election. I'm torn at this point. I see the establishment working. It's ****ing gross.
__________________
2018 Adopt A Chief: Sammy Watkins

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pablo View Post
Fair and balanced. A mod people can be proud of.
Posts: 56,378
Mr. Flopnuts is obviously part of the inner Circle.Mr. Flopnuts is obviously part of the inner Circle.Mr. Flopnuts is obviously part of the inner Circle.Mr. Flopnuts is obviously part of the inner Circle.Mr. Flopnuts is obviously part of the inner Circle.Mr. Flopnuts is obviously part of the inner Circle.Mr. Flopnuts is obviously part of the inner Circle.Mr. Flopnuts is obviously part of the inner Circle.Mr. Flopnuts is obviously part of the inner Circle.Mr. Flopnuts is obviously part of the inner Circle.Mr. Flopnuts is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-31-2016, 06:56 PM   #70
stevieray stevieray is online now
old school
 
stevieray's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: on The Wall
Casino cash: $34950
Quote:
Originally Posted by RNR View Post
**** off meth boy~
hey look, it's cosmo's BS lie.


Posts: 52,431
stevieray is obviously part of the inner Circle.stevieray is obviously part of the inner Circle.stevieray is obviously part of the inner Circle.stevieray is obviously part of the inner Circle.stevieray is obviously part of the inner Circle.stevieray is obviously part of the inner Circle.stevieray is obviously part of the inner Circle.stevieray is obviously part of the inner Circle.stevieray is obviously part of the inner Circle.stevieray is obviously part of the inner Circle.stevieray is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-31-2016, 06:57 PM   #71
|Zach| |Zach| is offline
For The Glory Of The City
 
|Zach|'s Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Kansas City
Casino cash: $13868
Big if true.
Posts: 47,163
|Zach| has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.|Zach| has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.|Zach| has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.|Zach| has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.|Zach| has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.|Zach| has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.|Zach| has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.|Zach| has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.|Zach| has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.|Zach| has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.|Zach| has enough rep power to blowy ou to bits.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-31-2016, 06:58 PM
stevieray
This message has been deleted by stevieray.
Old 10-31-2016, 07:03 PM   #72
RNR RNR is offline
America is great assholes~
 
RNR's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: In some people's mind~
Casino cash: $28090
Quote:
Originally Posted by stevieray View Post
hey look, it's cosmo's BS lie.


Look Steve I never take a run at that mother****er. He takes them at me all the time, **** him do you have a problem with that?
__________________
The Trump campaign and Black Lives Matter movement are perfect for each other. Both sides filled with easily led and angry nitwits convinced they are victims~
Posts: 31,085
RNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.RNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.RNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.RNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.RNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.RNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.RNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.RNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.RNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.RNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.RNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-31-2016, 07:06 PM   #73
stevieray stevieray is online now
old school
 
stevieray's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: on The Wall
Casino cash: $34950
Quote:
Originally Posted by RNR View Post
Look Steve I never take a run at that mother****er. He takes them at me all the time, **** him do you have a problem with that?

nope, just the BS meth label.
Posts: 52,431
stevieray is obviously part of the inner Circle.stevieray is obviously part of the inner Circle.stevieray is obviously part of the inner Circle.stevieray is obviously part of the inner Circle.stevieray is obviously part of the inner Circle.stevieray is obviously part of the inner Circle.stevieray is obviously part of the inner Circle.stevieray is obviously part of the inner Circle.stevieray is obviously part of the inner Circle.stevieray is obviously part of the inner Circle.stevieray is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-31-2016, 07:08 PM   #74
RNR RNR is offline
America is great assholes~
 
RNR's Avatar
 

Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: In some people's mind~
Casino cash: $28090
Quote:
Originally Posted by stevieray View Post
nope, just the BS meth label.
**** that mother****er. I have tried to play nice and that twat keeps talking shit. If you back that it is a problem~
__________________
The Trump campaign and Black Lives Matter movement are perfect for each other. Both sides filled with easily led and angry nitwits convinced they are victims~
Posts: 31,085
RNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.RNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.RNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.RNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.RNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.RNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.RNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.RNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.RNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.RNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.RNR is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 10-31-2016, 07:17 PM   #75
scho63 scho63 is offline
Politically Incorrect
 
scho63's Avatar
 

Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Scottsdale, AZ
Casino cash: $2500
Quote:
Originally Posted by suzzer99 View Post
I think as of a few days ago, this was a pretty fair assessment. I don't think it holds water by the end of the week.
__________________
"The only difference between sex for free and sex for money is that sex for free costs you a WHOLE LOT more!" ~Redd Foxx~


2018 Adopt a Chief - Clark Hunt and Brett Veach
"The men who drafted Patrick Mahomes"


Posts: 19,050
scho63 is obviously part of the inner Circle.scho63 is obviously part of the inner Circle.scho63 is obviously part of the inner Circle.scho63 is obviously part of the inner Circle.scho63 is obviously part of the inner Circle.scho63 is obviously part of the inner Circle.scho63 is obviously part of the inner Circle.scho63 is obviously part of the inner Circle.scho63 is obviously part of the inner Circle.scho63 is obviously part of the inner Circle.scho63 is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump




All times are GMT -6. The time now is 03:56 PM.


This is a test for a client's site.
Fort Worth Texas Process Servers
Covering Arlington, Fort Worth, Grand Prairie and surrounding communities.
Tarrant County, Texas and Johnson County, Texas.
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.