Albert/Joeckel perspective

[cdcox]

How would you feel if the Chiefs had the #2 overall pick and packaged it and Albert for Joeckel? Because that's what the Chiefs are on the brink of doing.

#1 pick = 3000 points
#54 pick = 360 points

difference is 2640 points

#2 pick is worth 2600 points

Chiefs are going to invest 3000 - 360 = 2640 points to replace Albert with Joeckel. It could be a good deal for the Chiefs if 1) Albert is out of the league in two years, 2) Jockel is a HOFer and 3) the alternatives (like Geno) don't have very good careers.

[Rausch]

I hate everything about creating a need and then filling the need.

Like we did at QB.

I don't care what sweet sauce you put on that it's still a flank steak grilled on a radiator in the ghetto...

[patteeu]

Originally Posted by Wonton Prejudice

Lots of people.

Like who? I'll give you KChiefs1.

[Rausch]

Originally Posted by patteeu

Who said he was average, again?

I'd honestly rate Albert as the no 8 LT in the league.

Only a ****ing reerun lets that walk when they don't have to...

[patteeu]

Originally Posted by patteeu

Like who? I'll give you KChiefs1.

"Not top 10" doesn't mean average.

[OrtonsPiercedTaint]

Use Luke to get Albert signed. Then he can get his pudgy revenge when the Chiefs play the Jaguars. By choking Hali like every other tackle gets by with.

[Rausch]

Originally Posted by OrtonsPiercedTaint

Use Luke to get Albert signed. Then he can get his pudgy revenge when the Chiefs play the Jaguars. By choking Hali like every other tackle.

I'm sure Hali's 2 speed moves will get played out pulling two blockers while Houston continues to beast RT's and TE'S on the way to posting BIGGER QB pressures and Sack numbers...

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by patteeu

Like who? I'll give you KChiefs1.

You've got to be kidding me.

People have been tearing down Albert for weeks since the idea he'd be traded was broken.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by patteeu

"Not top 10" doesn't mean average.

It's pretty ****ing close.

[patteeu]

Originally Posted by Wonton Prejudice

You've got to be kidding me.

People have been tearing down Albert for weeks since the idea he'd be traded was broken.

The vast majority of people who have been somewhat critical of Albert say he's above average.

Originally Posted by Wonton Prejudice

It's pretty ****ing close.

Not close enough for you to say they called him average.

[philfree]

Game of throws

Here's how to tell which QBs will be elite in the NFL


Originally Published: April 19, 2013
By Peter Keating | ESPN The Magazine

Keating IlloMark Weaver for ESPNFootball Outsiders' stats predict which draft QBs will be the next Ryan Leaf.

This story appears in ESPN The Magazine's April 29 NFL Draft issue. Subscribe today!


AS WE APPROACH the NFL draft on April 25, here's the headline from the analytics desk: We can now estimate how college QBs will do in the pros far better than when Peyton Manning vs. Ryan Leaf seemed like a toss-up.


The best system for projecting college quarterbacks is the Lewin Career Forecast by Football Outsiders. Launched in 2006, the LCF is named after David Lewin, a former Outsiders writer who is now scouting coordinator for the Boston Celtics. The key insight? The best college stats for predicting NFL performance are games started, which indicates successful experience, and completion percentage, which translates better than other metrics from one level of play to the next. (Manning completed 62.5 percent of passes and made 45 college starts; Leaf completed 53.8 percent and started 24 games.) The latest version of LCF, which looks at quarterbacks drafted in the first three rounds, also credits QBs who improve from their junior to senior seasons, penalizes those who play in minor conferences and distinguishes between pocket passers who run successfully (good) and scramblers who get sacked (bad). Last year the system loved Robert Griffin III and Andrew Luck but actually rated Russell Wilson over both of them, seeing value in his accuracy and huge improvement as a senior.



To be clear, some team statistics do project future success. Alok Pattani, an analyst for ESPN Stats & Info, has found that quarterbacks on excellent college teams don't tend to play as well in the NFL as QBs with similar scouting grades on worse squads. Apparently, a great team can make its QB look good, like Matt Leinart at USC, while a bad team can leave its quarterback underrated, like Jay Cutler at Vanderbilt. Pattani has also found that college QBs whose teams improve when they take over, as Boston College did with Matt Ryan, exceed expectations, while quarterbacks whose programs decline, like Brady Quinn at Notre Dame, underperform.


Most college stats, however, don't correlate well with pro success, and those include touchdowns, total yards and even yards per attempt. Most draft-combine measurables, like 40-yard-dash time, don't translate either. Every year you'll see a few physical specimens wow NFL talent evaluators. Then you'll see teams base their key decisions on a day or two of great workouts and wind up with Kyle Boller or JaMarcus Russell. To estimate NFL performance, you need to focus on a QB's entire career.


Looking at the variables isolated by LCF and Stats & Info, the numbers this year favor Geno Smith (started for three years, 67.4 percent completion rate, improved in his senior season) and Landry Jones (started four years, 63.6 percent completion rate). But both come with warning bells clanging: Smith was extremely inconsistent under center at West Virginia, and Oklahoma's spread offense probably boosted Jones' stats and obscured his immobility. So it's important to consider a final point: In the NFL, with its hard salary cap, player value is always relative to pay, because teams have only so much money to spend ($123 million apiece in 2013). And overspending on a quarterback is particularly damaging because QBs are so hard to replace.


That's why teams shouldn't reach for one in the first round (especially in a draft with no well, of course guys like Luck and Griffin). It's smarter to use your top pick on the player who offers the most reward per risk and hunt for a QB later -- as the Bengals did when they drafted receiver A.J. Green No. 4 overall in 2011, then nabbed Andy Dalton in Round 2.
So keep an eye on Matt Barkley (started four years, 64.1 percent completion rate), whose stats project nearly as well as Smith's, despite a disappointing senior year in which he was hamstrung by USC's horrendously conservative playcalling. And in the next tier, watch Ryan Nassib (started three years at Syracuse, 60.3 percent completion rate) and EJ Manuel (started three years at Florida State, 66.9 percent completion rate), both of whom got better and whose teams improved considerably in their senior seasons.

If your favorite team takes Smith in the top 10 and he misses, it will be haunted for years. Just ask the Jets. If, however, your team lands Barkley or Nassib in the second or third round, it could set up a winning economic blueprint for the next decade. Just ask the Seahawks.


Follow The Mag on Twitter (@ESPNmag) and like us on Facebook.

[Nightfyre]

Dumb article which is completely oblivious to the new CBA and its impact on the cost of top draft picks. Furthermore, the Jets are a doubly bad example as they gave Sanchez a bone-headed extension.

[philfree]

Originally Posted by Nightfyre

Dumb article which is completely oblivious to the new CBA and its impact on the cost of top draft picks. Furthermore, the Jets are a doubly bad example as they gave Sanchez a bone-headed extension.

I think it's interesting how the second tier stacks up to have some promise. For a while now I haven't been that keen on these guys thinking that they won't be Wilson or Kaepernick. Maybe I'm wrong and we'll get lucky and Reid and Dorsey will pick the right one with the pick we get for Albert.

[Hammock Parties]

the second tier doesn't "Stack up to have some promise" at all.

It's just people ignoring the history of the 2nd round and beyond.

There are like 10 guys in the entire history of football that were worth shit as QBs from the 2nd round.

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by patteeu

"Not top 10" doesn't mean average.

Not top 10 is middle third is average.

[philfree]

Originally Posted by Wonton Prejudice

the second tier doesn't "Stack up to have some promise" at all.

It's just people ignoring the history of the 2nd round and beyond.

There are like 10 guys in the entire history of football that were worth shit as QBs from the 2nd round.

Here's hoping for a new trend and the Chiefs actually benefitting from it. You know there have been a few good QBs come out of the 2nd and 3rd round the past couple of years so maybe it will continue.