Gasoline at $4 Coming to a Pump Near You, Unfazed by Rising Tab

[Donger]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=afOlUzd30YOo

Pretty alarmist, IMO, but possible.

Spoiler!

April 23 (Bloomberg) -- Whether it's $50 to fill up your Prius or $130 for the Ford Expedition, $4-a-gallon gasoline is coming to a pump near you.

Fuel prices are rising at a pace not seen since Hurricanes Katrina and Rita knocked out a third of the U.S. oil refining industry in 2005. Gasoline consumption is climbing twice as fast as last year and will accelerate when summer travel begins late next month.

``What we're surprised by is the increased demand,'' said James Mulva, chief executive officer at ConocoPhillips, whose refineries from California to New Jersey produce 56 million gallons of gas a day, enough to meet 14 percent of the country's needs. ``Even though the price of gasoline is up, the demand is up,'' he said in an April 12 interview in Houston.

Population gains and U.S. economic growth are causing an increase in fuel purchases, according to Orlando, Florida-based AAA, the nation's largest organization for motorists. The U.S. economy will expand at a 2.4 percent annual pace in the second quarter, up from 1.8 percent in the first three months, according to the median estimate of 74 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Gasoline use is rising almost 5 percent above the five-year average.

Americans are resigned to higher prices, says David Pursell, a principal with Pickering Energy Partners, a consulting firm in Houston.

``Last year, we had pump prices well over $3 for the summer and gasoline demand was up,'' Pursell said in an interview. ``Would $4 gasoline cause demand contraction? I think it will, but I also thought $3 gasoline would.''

Pump Prices

Gasoline inventories, measured by the days of demand they will cover, are at the lowest level in two decades for this time of year because of refinery fires, power failures and maintenance work oil companies failed to complete in 2006. No new U.S. refinery has been built in three decades, increasing the strain on existing plants.

Pump prices in the U.S. may increase to $4 a gallon from a nationwide average of $2.87 today, especially if hurricanes threaten Gulf of Mexico refineries, says Peter Beutel, an analyst at Cameron Hanover Inc. in Stamford, Connecticut, who helps industrial consumers manage energy costs.

``Hurricanes are always the huge wild card,'' said Beutel. ``We're all praying for a year like 2006 rather than 2005.''

The June-to-November Atlantic Ocean hurricane season may produce 17 tropical storms, with nine reaching hurricane force and four becoming major hurricanes whose winds exceed 111 miles per hour (179 kilometers per hour), London-based forecasters at Tropical Storm Risk said. Some of the storms will strike the Gulf Coast this year after a benign 2006, AccuWeather.com predicted.

Inflation Risk

Higher pump prices will make winners of refinery owners such as ConocoPhillips, San Antonio-based Valero Energy Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell Plc of The Hague. Shares of Valero and Sunoco Inc., whose only business is refining, are rebounding after a decline at the end of last summer.

The increase in fuel costs threatens to quicken inflation and restrain consumer spending in the U.S. An appreciation to $4 a gallon would add more than $10 for a driver who fills the 12- gallon tank of a Toyota Motor Corp. Prius. The owner of an Expedition, a Ford Motor Co. sport-utility vehicle with a 34- gallon capacity, faces an increase of almost $40.

Many Americans have no choice but to drive more, says Christopher Knittel, an economist who studies fuel consumption at the University of California in Davis.

More Commuters

``We live farther from our jobs than we did in the 1970s, and with the rise of dual-income households, we now have two people who drive those distances every day,'' Knittel said.

Consumers also do more driving for things such as taking children to soccer practice, which they are unlikely to quit, he said. The U.S. population has increased 1 percent a year in the past decade to 301 million in 2007, adding to demand for gasoline, economists said.

Rising fuel prices make it less likely that Federal Reserve policy makers, who have cited inflation risks for the past year, will cut interest rates to spur economic growth. Before the hurricane-induced peak in 2005, U.S. gasoline topped out at $1.42 a gallon in March 1981, or $3.21 when adjusted for inflation, according to the Energy Department.

Economies in Europe and Asia are less likely to be hurt by gasoline prices because fuel already is subject to high taxes designed to encourage conservation. A gallon of unleaded costs about 3.25 pounds a gallon ($6.49) in the U.K., and in Japan it's 130.3 yen per liter ($4.16 a gallon).

$4 Barrier

U.S. consumers will get little relief on gasoline prices from Europe this year, unlike 2005, when oil companies shipped more across the Atlantic after the hurricanes. Europe's gasoline inventories in February were 114.2 million barrels, down 11 percent from two years earlier, according to the International Energy Agency in Paris. The drop in Europe was almost twice the 5.7 percent decline in U.S. supplies in that time.

``Just as we used to think $3 a gallon was an impenetrable barrier, now it's $4,'' said Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland School of Business in College Park and former chief economist for the U.S. International Trade Commission. Gasoline at $3.50 is likely, Morici said, and a conflict with Iran or any event that disrupts crude supplies may push it to $4.

Pump prices rose 33 percent in the past 11 weeks, the fastest rate of gain since a six-week, 34 percent rally to the record $3.069 in September 2005, Energy Department data show.

Bodman's `Worry'

U.S. Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman in an interview last week said the national average pump price could break the record this summer. While his agency's official forecast is for gasoline to peak next month at about where it is today, hurricanes, refinery closures or crude oil supply cuts may send prices higher, he said.

Higher prices are ``a legitimate worry,'' Bodman said. ``We have trouble spots all over the world'' that could boost crude oil prices. ``We're in a very tight situation.''

Spending on fuel in the U.S. consumes half as much household income as in the early 1980s, which means gasoline would need to reach almost $6 a gallon to have the same effect on the economy as in 1981, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

Storage tanks at U.S. refineries, terminals and ports hold enough gasoline to cover almost 22 days of domestic demand, 8.2 percent less than the five-year average and the lowest for this time of year since the 1980s, Energy Department figures show.

Shortages

Valero-owned filling stations in Denver and Colorado Springs, Colorado, ran dry after a Feb. 16 explosion and fire shut the company's McKee refinery in Sunray, Texas. A day earlier, a blaze at an Exxon Mobil Corp. plant in Nanticoke, Ontario, slashed output, resulting in shortages and higher prices across eastern Canada.

The McKee shutdown strained supplies so much that ConocoPhillips postponed maintenance at its Borger, Texas, refinery north of Amarillo to prevent shortages in the region.

``Refineries are becoming more complex,'' Mulva said in the Houston interview. ``What we're finding is it's more difficult keeping reliability up with more sophisticated pieces of equipment that are highly integrated.''

Tesoro Corp. of San Antonio, the second-largest refiner in the western U.S., said first-quarter refinery use dropped because oil companies delayed until this year maintenance that could have been done in 2006. The portion of U.S. refining capacity that was in operation in the first quarter declined to 87.3 percent from 88.9 percent a year earlier, according to Energy Department data.

`Refineries Blow Up'

``Prices will depend entirely on whether we have a couple of refineries blow up,'' said Philip K. Verleger, an economist who runs a consulting firm in Newport Beach, California. ``It's almost impossible we'll get to $4 a gallon if all the refineries run well this summer. But if something happens and there are problems, then anything's possible.''

The average share gain for Valero, Tesoro and six other oil-refining companies is 26 percent this year, outperforming the 4.1 percent gain for Exxon Mobil and a 4.7 percent increase for the Standard & Poor's 500 index.

The shares will continue to rally, said Paul Carlson, who helps manage $3 billion at HGK Asset Management in Jersey City, New Jersey.

``Refiners are doing very well these days,'' said Carlson, whose holdings include ConocoPhillips, the second-biggest U.S. refiner. ``There will be lots of demand for any new refining stocks.''

`Back in Favor'

As recently as August, investors were selling oil refiners on concern an economic slowdown would slash fuel demand in the U.S., the world's largest energy market. During seven weeks last August and September, Valero shares fell 29 percent, wiping out $12 billion in market value.

``Refining is very much back in favor,'' said Douglas Ober, who helps oversee $2.3 billion at Baltimore-based Adams Express Co. ``Even with higher prices, we haven't seen any substantial cutback in demand. They're cranking out as much of this stuff as they can, and we're throwing it in our tanks as fast as we can.''

The margin earned from processing crude oil into fuels rose to $24.68 a barrel on April 11, the highest since right after the hurricanes in September 2005. The margin has since retreated to $22.12 a barrel, still about double the five-year average.

``It'll be a fairly tight gasoline market all through the summer,'' said Robert Hinckley, an analyst at Rochdale Securities in New York.

[Radar Chief]

Has this been posted yet? I thought of using it for my avatar, but figured I’d share instead.

You’re welcome.

[oldandslow]

We passed Peak light sweet crude a year ago. That means we have used more of it than what is left in the ground. The Saudi's are not increasing their output for one simple reason - they can't.

This explains everything that is happening right now. The news media is talking about how the US is having refining problems - that is true and untrue at the same time. If there was an ample supply of light sweet oil, there would not be a refining issue.

The US refiners are however trying to add equipment like mad to be able to refine heavy and sour grades of oil. The equipment is very expensive and cannot produce like a refinery running on LS feedstock.

Sour oil is high in sulfur and produces sulfuric acid during production it destroys equipment the faster you run the process. The harder you run these refineries the more fires and accidents you are going to have.

[go bo]

Originally Posted by Donger

Dumb, panicky animal syndrome?

It's virtually impossible to create a Chernobyl-like disaster in the United States, even intentionally. Our plants are vastly superior with regards to design and engineering.

how 'bout 3 mile island?

and who you callin' dumb and panicky anyway?

well, one out of 2 ain't bad...

[oldandslow]

The problem with Nuke energy is ROI.

Forget waste, 3 mile island, etc., the fact of the matter is that it takes a nuke plant 15/20 years or so to pay off the initial investment. By then it is ready for decommission.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by go bo

how 'bout 3 mile island?

and who you callin' dumb and panicky anyway?

well, one out of 2 ain't bad...

3 Mile Island was nothing compared to Chernobyl.

[tommykat]

Probably already said, however......DO NOT buy gasoline tomorrow....They have been saying on all the radio stations to go with the emails you all got. People are pissed and time to act!

[Donger]

Originally Posted by tommykat

Probably already said, however......DO NOT buy gasoline tomorrow....They have been saying on all the radio stations to go with the emails you all got. People are pissed and time to act!

What is that going to accomplish?

[tommykat]

Originally Posted by Donger

What is that going to accomplish?

If all people in all the states protest and not buy that speaks volume! Then write to your govenor and senate and ask them "What are you going to do about this"? Asking them prior to their new election...That speaks loud!

[Donger]

Originally Posted by tommykat

If all people in all the states protest and not buy that speaks volume! Then write to your govenor and senate and ask them "What are you going to do about this"? Asking them prior to their new election...That speaks loud!

Are all you people actually going to skip a fill-up, or just delay it by a few days?

And, what do you expect/want the government to do?

[tommykat]

Originally Posted by Donger

Are all you people actually going to skip a fill-up, or just delay it by a few days?

And, what do you expect/want the government to do?

Just one day is all....You email your Govenor,

__________________


Take that KC helmet and just

[Simplex3]

Originally Posted by Donger

Are all you people actually going to skip a fill-up, or just delay it by a few days?

And, what do you expect/want the government to do?

You can't be seriously trying to walk her through this are you? Don't you have better things to do, like an auto-vasectomy with a spork?

[tommykat]

Originally Posted by Simplex3

You can't be seriously trying to walk her through this are you? Don't you have better things to do, like an auto-vasectomy with a spork?

This is why I wonder why I come back here.

[Simplex3]

Originally Posted by tommykat

This is why I wonder why I come back here.

There are 230+ posts in this thread. If you would have read them you would have seen this very thing has been hashed and rehashed ad nauseam in this very thread.

It's been shown time and time again that the "gas out" won't work and it's been shown time and time again why govt. controls don't work.

[Donger]

Originally Posted by tommykat

Just one day is all....You email your Govenor,

So, you are going to delay filling up by one day, not skip an entire fill-up? In other words, you aren't going to reduce your demand at all?

Sorry, but that does absolutely nothing.

What am I supposed to email my governor about?

[luv]

Originally Posted by Simplex3

There are 230+ posts in this thread. If you would have read them you would have seen this very thing has been hashed and rehashed ad nauseam in this very thread.

It's been shown time and time again that the "gas out" won't work and it's been shown time and time again why govt. controls don't work.

Eh, some of us prefer the cliff notes. I know I don't go all the way back and read all of long threads.