Chiefs Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012 - Page 8

**cdcox** · 03:26 PM

nfl-forecast.com is back for another season.

After Week 3
As of the moment, the Chiefs odds of making the playoffs are 10%.

The distribution of potential wins and draft picks will be shown in my next post.

Unfortunately, this season is shaping up to be a classic case of being Piolied by the Cassel maneuver.

Midway through Week 12

We have an 81% chance of getting the overall #1 pick.

We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time. If we beat Carolina and they lose out, we still get the #1 pick 75% of the time.

The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs.

Midway through week 13

As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick:

KC 55%
Jax 24%
Oakland 15%
Philly 4%
Field 2%

Midway through week 14

KC 55%
Jax 31%
Oakland 14%
Only 3 with decent odds.

Midway through week 15

KC 70%
Jac 30%
Oakland <<1%

KC guaranteed a top 3 spot

Midway through week 16

KC 92%
Jax 8%

Only way we don't get it is if we beat Denver and Jax loses to TN (barring ties).

**Rain Man** · 11-18-2012, 05:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox

As of now, #1 overall pick odds:

Chiefs 66%
Jags 24%
Browns 6%
Field 4%

I know it is unprecedented since the merger, but did we ever have the number 1 pick back in the AFL days? it still would not be the same since they were competing with the NFL, of course. it seems like maybe Buck Buchanan was a number 1 overall. ( just to be clear, buck was not a quarterback
.)

Ebolapox · 11-18-2012, 05:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rain Man

I know it is unprecedented since the merger, but did we ever have the number 1 pick back in the AFL days? it still would not be the same since they were competing with the NFL, of course. it seems like maybe Buck Buchanan was a number 1 overall. ( just to be clear, buck was not a quarterback
.)

Yes, Buck buchanan WAS the number one overall, but we got the pick by trading a QB (Cotton Davidson) to the raiders. crazy, huh?

**Rain Man** · 11-18-2012, 06:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by h5n1

Yes, Buck buchanan WAS the number one overall, but we got the pick by trading a QB (Cotton Davidson) to the raiders. crazy, huh?

Well, that's odd.

**cdcox** · 11-25-2012, 03:11 PM

Up to 81% chance of getting the overall first pick.

We can now win a freak game and still in all likelihood have the overall #1 pick, regardless of what else happens. I'll have the exact odds of that in a few minutes.

And we are eliminated from the playoffs.

Pants · 11-25-2012, 03:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox

And we are eliminated from the playoffs.

**the Talking Can** · 11-25-2012, 03:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox

Up to 81% chance of getting the overall first pick.

We can now win a freak game and still in all likelihood have the overall #1 pick, regardless of what else happens. I'll have the exact odds of that in a few minutes.

And we are eliminated from the playoffs.

sweet

good news

Stanley Nickels · 11-25-2012, 03:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox

Up to 81% chance of getting the overall first pick.

We can now win a freak game and still in all likelihood have the overall #1 pick, regardless of what else happens. I'll have the exact odds of that in a few minutes.

And we are eliminated from the playoffs.

If we beat Jacksonville, head-to-head trumps Opp. Win %, right?

PS THANK YOU JAGUARS.

JoeyChuckles · 11-25-2012, 03:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stanley Nickels

If we beat Jacksonville, head-to-head trumps Opp. Win %, right?

PS THANK YOU JAGUARS.

The odds of that happening are officially 0%. Wanna bet on it?

FringeNC · 11-25-2012, 03:20 PM

Now we need to be lucky and good with that draft pick. We need a front office in place that will choose the franchise QB instead of the bust. Maybe that's Geno Smith, maybe one of the other guys, but we can't F it up.

**cdcox** · 11-25-2012, 03:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stanley Nickels

If we beat Jacksonville, head-to-head trumps Opp. Win %, right?

PS THANK YOU JAGUARS.

No. The only tiebreaker for draft pick is strength of schedule. Head to head means nothing. And we don't play the Jags.

**cdcox** · 11-25-2012, 03:23 PM

If we win one game, and Jacksonville loses out, we will win the tiebreaker more than 99% of the time.

HMc · 11-25-2012, 03:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FringeNC

Now we need to be lucky and good with that draft pick. We need a front office in place that will choose the franchise QB instead of the bust. Maybe that's Geno Smith, maybe one of the other guys, but we can't F it up.

QBs are too risky. we should take Guard / Tackle Hugh Thornton out of Illinois. Cassel is a pro bowl qb when he has some protection

**BigRedChief** · 11-25-2012, 03:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox

If we win one game, and Jacksonville loses out, we will win the tiebreaker more than 99% of the time.

why don't you update the opening post?

**Rain Man** · 11-25-2012, 03:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox

If we win one game, and Jacksonville loses out, we will win the tiebreaker more than 99% of the time.

I can't wait until we reach the point where we can root for a win and not lose draft ground.

**cdcox** · 11-25-2012, 03:24 PM

Rain Man, you are okay wishing for the Chiefs to win one game. That's it though. Choose wisely.

09-26-2012, 08:12 PM
cdcox www.nfl-forecast.com Join Date: Sep 2000 Casino cash: $2431769	Playoff and Draft Pick Odds, 2012 nfl-forecast.com is back for another season. After Week 3 As of the moment, the Chiefs odds of making the playoffs are 10%. The distribution of potential wins and draft picks will be shown in my next post. Unfortunately, this season is shaping up to be a classic case of being Piolied by the Cassel maneuver. Midway through Week 12 We have an 81% chance of getting the overall #1 pick. We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time. If we beat Carolina and they lose out, we still get the #1 pick 75% of the time. The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs. Midway through week 13 As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick: KC 55% Jax 24% Oakland 15% Philly 4% Field 2% Midway through week 14 KC 55% Jax 31% Oakland 14% Only 3 with decent odds. Midway through week 15 KC 70% Jac 30% Oakland <<1% KC guaranteed a top 3 spot Midway through week 16 KC 92% Jax 8% Only way we don't get it is if we beat Denver and Jax loses to TN (barring ties). Last edited by cdcox; 12-23-2012 at 03:26 PM..
Posts: 45,536

11-25-2012, 03:11 PM	#109
cdcox www.nfl-forecast.com Join Date: Sep 2000 Casino cash: $2431769	Up to 81% chance of getting the overall first pick. We can now win a freak game and still in all likelihood have the overall #1 pick, regardless of what else happens. I'll have the exact odds of that in a few minutes. And we are eliminated from the playoffs.
Posts: 45,536

11-25-2012, 03:20 PM	#114
FringeNC MVP Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: NC Casino cash: $1896014	Now we need to be lucky and good with that draft pick. We need a front office in place that will choose the franchise QB instead of the bust. Maybe that's Geno Smith, maybe one of the other guys, but we can't F it up.
Posts: 10,170

11-25-2012, 03:23 PM	#116
cdcox www.nfl-forecast.com Join Date: Sep 2000 Casino cash: $2431769	If we win one game, and Jacksonville loses out, we will win the tiebreaker more than 99% of the time.
Posts: 45,536

11-25-2012, 03:24 PM	#120
cdcox www.nfl-forecast.com Join Date: Sep 2000 Casino cash: $2431769	Rain Man, you are okay wishing for the Chiefs to win one game. That's it though. Choose wisely.
Posts: 45,536

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