Peter King: You have to go back to 1997 to find a draft like this one

[Deberg_1990]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/nfl.../?sct=uk_wr_a1





You'd probably have to go back to 1997 to find a draft like this one. That's the year Peyton Manning eschewed the prospect of going to the Jets first overall to play for Bill Parcells and returned for his senior year at Tennessee. One quarterback (shaky Jim Druckenmiller, 26th) picked in round one. Two backs (Warrick Dunn 12th and Antowain Smith 23rd) in round one, and four receivers in the first: Ike Hilliard seventh, Yatil Green 15th, Reidel Anthony 16th and Rae Carruth 27th. Yikes! What a horrible draft for point-producers. One star, Dunn, out of seven first-rounders.

That could repeat this year. It's likely Alabama's Eddie Lacy will be the only running back taken in round one. Tennessee's Cordarrelle Patterson leads the muddled pack at wide receiver, but how sure can you really be of junior-college transfers who play one year of major-college football, which is Patterson's profile?

The quarterbacks are a total mish-mosh at this point. One GM interested in acquiring a quarterback this offseason told me over the weekend, "I expect more attention on the quarterbacks throwing this year than on any other single thing at the Combine.'' Some think Geno Smith of West Virginia will go first overall to quarterback-needy Kansas City; one personnel man who studied all the top quarterbacks for a team in need of one last fall told me, "There's not one quarterback, including Smith, I would take in the first round."

Two points about that. If you need a quarterback, you can talk brave in February, but when reality sets in around draft day, and you haven't picked up a quarterback in free agency, all of a sudden the zits on Smith, Matt Barkley and other others don't seem as bad. And we're nine and a half weeks from round one. There's no way that Andy Reid and John Dorsey, the coach and GM for Kansas City, know what they're doing now. They need time to investigate and to watch tape on the eight or 10 quarterbacks.

But in some ways, 2013 should be a catchup year for the other positions. Opening day 2013 could feature 12 starting quarterbacks drafted in 2011 and '12; that's far, far above the norm in a game that values veteran arms at the position.

Now for a couple of notes about players at the Combine.

Alec Ogletree. The underclass inside linebacker from Georgia would be a clear top-10 pick with a clean resume. But he was suspended the first four games of last season for failing an offseason drug test, and then came the news Saturday night, via ProFootballTalk.com, that Ogletree recently was pinched for driving while intoxicated.

Ogletree and agent Pat Dye were smart to come out and beat the police blotter to the punch. As for the damage done by the arrest, Ogletree, who is a speed demon for an inside player, the kind of player who, if right, would be a perfect fit as a rare three-down inside linebacker for any team, has to convince teams they shouldn't be worried about a player who has tested positive, been suspended, and gotten a DWI in the span of about nine months.

Some GM is going to stake his reputation on Ogletree in the first round, most likely. Which GM? It would have to be a secure one. Green Bay's Ted Thompson or de facto GM Bill Belichick of the Patriots or Baltimore's Ozzie Newsome, all down near the bottom of the round.

Manti Te'o. The Notre Dame linebacker has spent a lot of time practicing football and practicing what he's going to say to teams. His last game, against Alabama, was a nightmare (he was awful, and overpowered), and then the whole fake girlfriend story came up, making him a national story and, in some quarters, a national joke. It won't matter much how he works out in Indianapolis. What will matter are the 15-minute interviews he'll have in formal evening sessions with teams, and in less formal settings, seeing coaches and personnel people at the stadium and around his hotel.

No men have more on the line, off the field, at the Scouting Combine than Ogletree and Te'o.

Finally, three players I'll be watching at the Combine, three with question marks and debatable upsides:

1. Quarterback Sean Renfree, Duke. No one's talking about him, but he completed 70 percent of his throws in six of 12 games for David Cutcliffe last fall, was a comeback specialist, and has the pedigree in a good pro-style offense to play early. Could he be more than a late-round flyer, this year's Ryan Lindley? We'll see.

2. Cornerback Xavier Rhodes, Florida State. A 6-2 cornerback in a league demanding cover guys who can play on islands more and more? Scouts want to see if Rhodes, who is a heady player with good bump skills at the line of scrimmage, has the speed to stay with fast wideouts. If so, he'll be a top-half-of-the-first-round player.

3. Running back Marcus Lattimore, South Carolina. After his devastating dislocated knee and torn knee ligaments in October, Lattimore, considered a certain first-rounder before the injury, is still in recovery mode. His surgeon, James Andrews, told Lattimore recently that he's going to shock the world. "I hear he's working out great,'' said Mayock. Lattimore believes he'll be healthy enough to start the 2013 NFL season. Is he's a fourth-round minefield pick? Or might some team desperate for a back go for him a round earlier -- or even late in the second round?



Read More: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/nfl...#ixzz2LLwcLLId

[RealSNR]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Fair enough. But dammit, at some point we're going to roll 7s, I am firmly convinced of this.

Maybe.

All I know if the Chiefs keep up with this horrid betting strategy on the dice table, then I'm going to go play blackjack.

[jAZ]

Originally Posted by Bowser

If your point is that you trust in Dorsey and Reid if they take another player than Geno, then I'm with you. I won't like it, but they will get the benefit of the doubt from me until they prove that they aren't worthy of that benefit.

If your point is that Geno looks to be too big of a risk to throw the first pick at, then my post is 100% accurate.

If you catch up on my posts (no need, but if you do), you'll see that I'm saying trust the professionals and not me or anyone else on here. Or anyone in the media for that matter. Trust he guys who coach the players, call the plays, run the drills, watch the scouting film over and over again.

Over time, they will know better what to do.

[jAZ]

Originally Posted by GoWalrus

The Professionals...like Herm, Carl, *****, Haley, Gunther, Muir, Daboll....TRUST THEM ALL!!!

Trust them all over you. Yes.

Trust them all over the other professionals on the other 32 teams over the last decade? No.

Hope that's spelled out clearly enough for you.

[Bowser]

Originally Posted by patteeu

The pro GENO-AT-ALL-COSTS crowd sure is logic challenged. Saying he doesn't know if Geno is the guy or not doesn't mean that Geno shouldn't be the pick. It also doesn't mean that jAZ thinks that he should know for sure about any particular player before that player becomes worthy of the 1st pick. Every post I read from Geno fanboys seems more facepalm-worthy than the last.

In that case sell me on another player this team needs more than a Geno Smith. I promise I will keep an open mind to your takes.

[jAZ]

Originally Posted by patteeu

The pro GENO-AT-ALL-COSTS crowd sure is logic challenged. Saying he doesn't know if Geno is the guy or not doesn't mean that Geno shouldn't be the pick. It also doesn't mean that jAZ thinks that he should know for sure about any particular player before that player becomes worthy of the 1st pick. Every post I read from Geno fanboys seems more facepalm-worthy than the last.

We should only ever talk here in the lounge.

[Bowser]

Originally Posted by jAZ

We should only ever talk here in the lounge.

It's like ****ing bizzaro world watching patteeu and jAZ agree on anything.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by jAZ

Trust them all over you. Yes.

Trust them all over the other professionals on the other 32 teams over the last decade? No.

Hope that's spelled out clearly enough for you.

Hey dipshit: I agreed with Scott ***** in 2009.

Don't trust EITHER of us.

But I was still smart enough to know this team wasn't doing shit last year under Matt Cassel. I'm not even smart. I just recognize failure.

[bevischief]

[patteeu]

Originally Posted by Bowser

In that case sell me on another player this team needs more than a Geno Smith. I promise I will keep an open mind to your takes.

I'm not here to sell a particular player. I hope the Chiefs pick a QB (and that he ends up being the right one). But if they use a different approach, I'll give them the benefit of the doubt.

In that regard, I read your subsequent post to jAZ and see that you won't cry if the Chiefs pick someone other than Geno either, so I stand corrected on lumping you in with the fanboys.

[patteeu]

Originally Posted by jAZ

We should only ever talk here in the lounge.

Yes.

[RealSNR]

Originally Posted by patteeu

The pro GENO-AT-ALL-COSTS crowd sure is logic challenged. Saying he doesn't know if Geno is the guy or not doesn't mean that Geno shouldn't be the pick. It also doesn't mean that jAZ thinks that he should know for sure about any particular player before that player becomes worthy of the 1st pick. Every post I read from Geno fanboys seems more facepalm-worthy than the last.

It's the QB at all costs crowd.

I and many others are saying that there is a pretty clear and OBVIOUS direction this team should go at #1. It's far more obvious than the draft "experts" make it out to be given the surrounding talent at other positions at the top of this draft, among other reasons.

This really isn't a case where WELL THAT'S JUST YOUR OPINION is a valid rebuttal or disagreement. And if Reid or Dorsey deviate from that strategy and it grants us a subpar QB like Nassib, Dysert, or Jones in this draft, there's going to be hell to pay.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by SNR

there's going to be hell to pay.

But Nick Foles was going into Tosche Station to pick up some power converters!

[jAZ]

Originally Posted by GoWalrus

Hey dipshit: I agreed with Scott ***** in 2009.

Don't trust EITHER of us.

But I was still smart enough to know this team wasn't doing shit last year under Matt Cassel. I'm not even smart. I just recognize failure.

That's reasonable. Good for you.

[beach tribe]

Recently bought a Roku, and they have a CBS sports channel on it. The most recent clip on it was from Pat Kirwin. I don't know much about him, but he seems like the only journalist who makes ANY sense.
He says: Don't listen to any reports coming from anyone. When all is said and done, Geno will go #1, 2 QBs will go in the top 10, and there is no way a G will be taken in the top 10.
He made some other good points, and I think he's right. All these reports...all of them..are useless.

[WildTurkey]

Originally Posted by beach tribe

Recently bought a Roku, and they have a CBS sports channel on it. The most recent clip on it was from Pat Kirwin. I don't know much about him, but he seems like the only journalist who makes ANY sense.
He says: Don't listen to any reports coming from anyone. When all is said and done, Geno will go #1, 2 QBs will go in the top 10, and there is no way a G will be taken in the top 10.
He made some other good points, and I think he's right. All these reports...all of them..are useless.

He's a former NFL scout and Front office guy. He generally knows what he's talking about