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Old 04-06-2017, 11:27 AM  
saphojunkie saphojunkie is offline
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***** Official 2017-2018 Kansas Basketball Repository Thread *****

**** the elite 8. Final Four or bust, baby.

Will update as people declare for the draft/transfer/commit

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Old 02-14-2018, 07:26 AM   #1816
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So it's not a crapshoot then.


By the way you're also wrong on the NFL. Wild card teams have won it in 05, 07, 10, 11. It's more of a "crapshoot" than March
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Old 02-14-2018, 07:45 AM   #1817
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Originally Posted by KC_Connection View Post
Easy enough to look up.

2002: 4 (Maryland)
2003: 20 (Syracuse)
2004: 5 (UConn)
2005: 2 (UNC)
2006: 6 (Florida)
2007: 3 (Florida)
2008: 1 (Kansas)
2009: 3 (UNC)
2010: 2 (Duke)
2011: 15 (UConn)
2012: 1 (Kentucky)
2013: 1 (Louisville)
2014: 12 (UConn)
2015: 6 (Duke)
2016: 7 (Villanova)
2017: 3 (UNC)

Best team going into the tournament has won three times in the past 16 years in it (18.8% success rate). If it walks like a duck...
I interpret this data to mean it is a crap shoot. Well, not a crapshoot but a lot of randomness and "madness" involved. Not saying that's a bad thing though

If it was a best of 3 series starting in the elite 8, how many of these do you think would be different, and better reflect which teams were ranked highest in the pretournament rankings?

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Old 02-14-2018, 08:53 AM   #1818
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Originally Posted by Prison Bitch View Post
Myth. The title winner is nearly always a favorite. Pomeroy final ranking for the champ:


2002: 3
2003: 8
2004: 2
2005: 1
2006: 1
2007: 2
2008: 1
2009: 1
2010: 1
2011: 10
2012: 1
2013: 1
2014: 15
2015: 3
2016: 1
2017: 3


Uconn is the outlier in 2011 and 2014. Else, those numbers don't resemble a "crapshoot" at all.
So you realize the Pomeroy rankings dramatically changes from the start of the NCAA Tournament, to the end , right?
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Old 02-14-2018, 09:35 AM   #1819
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So you realize the Pomeroy rankings dramatically changes from the start of the NCAA Tournament, to the end , right?
That terrible argument has already been rebutted.
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Old 02-14-2018, 10:20 AM   #1820
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NFL playoffs are more of a crapshoot than March Madness? Is that why the same f***ing team represents the AFC in the Super Bowl every year, while you have 50 huge upsets every year in March? Brilliant take.
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Old 02-14-2018, 10:34 AM   #1821
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Originally Posted by KC_Connection View Post
Easy enough to look up.

2002: 4 (Maryland)
2003: 20 (Syracuse)
2004: 5 (UConn)
2005: 2 (UNC)
2006: 6 (Florida)
2007: 3 (Florida)
2008: 1 (Kansas)
2009: 3 (UNC)
2010: 2 (Duke)
2011: 15 (UConn)
2012: 1 (Kentucky)
2013: 1 (Louisville)
2014: 12 (UConn)
2015: 6 (Duke)
2016: 7 (Villanova)
2017: 3 (UNC)

Best team going into the tournament has won three times in the past 16 years in it (18.8% success rate). If it walks like a duck...
Strange. I thought the best team always won.
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Old 02-14-2018, 07:15 PM   #1822
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Originally Posted by SupDock View Post
I interpret this data to mean it is a crap shoot. Well, not a crapshoot but a lot of randomness and "madness" involved. Not saying that's a bad thing though
Good or bad, it's just the nature of a 68 team single elimination tournament. You're going to get some very random outcomes sometimes and even the very best teams are exposed in such a format.

Quote:
If it was a best of 3 series starting in the elite 8, how many of these do you think would be different, and better reflect which teams were ranked highest in the pretournament rankings?
Best teams would win a bit more often. Quite often even the best teams have one bad game over the course of six games (think KU/UNI 2010 when 2010 KU was one of the best teams we've seen over the past decade or so). If you could have that bad game in a Bo3 series instead, it would help.
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Old 02-14-2018, 07:21 PM   #1823
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Originally Posted by SupDock View Post
I interpret this data to mean it is a crap shoot. Well, not a crapshoot but a lot of randomness and "madness" involved. Not saying that's a bad thing though
There's a lot of confusion over the words crapshoot and coin flip. When KU is 2 overall and plays Nova who is 3 overall in the 2016 EE, and the point spread is KU -1, there's a 52% chance KU wins. A coin flip. Deep into the Tourney with the best teams, the spreads are often so narrow they become coin flips.


But they're not "crapshoots". That would be low seeds making the FF at a regular basis, which doesn't happen.


Put it this way: Kentucky 2015 was 39-0, but was only favored -3 (Sagarin) over Arizona and -4 over Dook and Wisconsin. Those are very narrow margins.


Quote:
If it was a best of 3 series starting in the elite 8, how many of these do you think would be different, and better reflect which teams were ranked highest in the pretournament rankings?
Nobody would watch.
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Old 02-14-2018, 07:44 PM   #1824
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NFL playoffs are more of a crapshoot than March Madness? Is that why the same f***ing team represents the AFC in the Super Bowl every year, while you have 50 huge upsets every year in March? Brilliant take.
Agreed.

The #1 seed has to win 2 games at home and one at a neutral site.

It would also be e,asier for the best team if they could play the first 5 games at home before going to a neutral site for the championship.
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Old 02-14-2018, 09:24 PM   #1825
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Crapshoot or not...I'm glad that KU won their biggest game of the year, in Ames. I looked and didnt see our friend Rust post after the 'big game' about how this was the year or not. I guess next year is the year, then.

I cannot think of a weaker team that Self has put together than this year. Maybe not weak, but unbalanced.
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Old 02-15-2018, 01:26 AM   #1826
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Originally Posted by Prison Bitch View Post
So it's not a crapshoot then.


By the way you're also wrong on the NFL. Wild card teams have won it in 05, 07, 10, 11. It's more of a "crapshoot" than March
JFC.
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Old 02-15-2018, 03:38 AM   #1827
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Agreed.

The #1 seed has to win 2 games at home and one at a neutral site.

It would also be e,asier for the best team if they could play the first 5 games at home before going to a neutral site for the championship.
Not to mention the games are much longer, therefore flukery is way less likely. Especially at home. Imagine KU's tourney record if they'd played every game til the title in Allen Fieldhouse. And of course it's much more likely to have an off game when playing twice as many games.

Having the better QB correlates to playoff wins the vast majority of the time. But having the best player on the court in CBB means squat. Durant was probably the best college player in the last 20 years and had pretty solid talent around him, yet they ended with a mediocre record and were bounced in the second round.

The top teams in CBB are subject to the unpredictable nature of the one n done era and constant turnover of top talent year to year, whereas all you need is Tom Brady and 21 chimps with pads to guarantee an AFC championship 20 years in a row.

KU would have about 10 titles with a format comparable to the NFL playoffs.

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Old 02-15-2018, 03:46 AM   #1828
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Not to mention the games are much longer, therefore flukery is way less likely. Especially at home. Imagine KU's tourney record if they'd played every game til the title in Allen Fieldhouse. And of course it's much more likely to have an off game when playing twice as many games.

Having the better QB correlates to playoff wins the vast majority of the time. But having the best player on the court in CBB means squat. Durant was probably the best college player in the last 20 years and had pretty solid talent around him, yet they ended with a mediocre record and were bounced in the second round.

Also, the top teams in CBB are subject to the unpredictable nature of the one n done era, with constant turnover of top talent year to year, whereas all you need is Tom Brady and 21 chimps with pads to guarantee an AFC championship 20 years in a row.

KU would have about 10 titles with a format comparable to the NFL playoffs.
- OK I'll bite, who's the 20 year starter for KU?
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Old 02-15-2018, 04:01 AM   #1829
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- OK I'll bite, who's the 20 year starter for KU?
Well, the point was that the best team is much less likely to go deep or win it all when not playing every game til the SB at home, playing much shorter games, twice as many games, etc. It's FAR more likely that a good shooting team will go cold once in 6 games than a good QB will throw ducks for 60 minutes. Or a good defense allowing 45 points.

But now that you mention it, imagine if Frank Mason had about 15 more years of eligibility?

Seriously though, can you even imagine KU's final four total if the one seeds all played home games through the regional finals?
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Old 02-15-2018, 04:41 AM   #1830
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- OK I'll bite, who's the 20 year starter for KU?
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