*** Official Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers Game Thread (6/18) ***

[alnorth]

12:08 pm

The first-place Royals @ The swirling down the toilet bowl Detroit Tigers

Jeremy Guthrie VS. Drew Smyly

Vegas Odds: DET -139, KC +129

[Dartgod]

1n f0r the win!

[Bob Dole]

Don't want to wake up from this sweet dream.

[BlackHelicopters]

In for TEN in a row

[penbrook]

I hope J Guts has the good side of him today

[BlackHelicopters]

Rain in DET?

[TLO]

In for the win!

[Why Not?]

10 me boys. 10 me

[penbrook]

Here's a fun fact!!

Royals are the first team in MLB History to score most runs off Cy Young winners in back to back games: 17ER/10IP

[Toadkiller]

Sneaking and watching this one at work. In for the win!

[KChiefs1]

Good or Bad JGuts?

[KChiefs1]

Bless You Boys Blog:

Game 68 Preview: Royals at Tigers

For the first time this season, the Tigers are looking up in the standings. Drew Smyly takes the mound looking to get Detroit back into first place.

Time/Place: 1:08 p.m., Comerica Park

SB Nation blog: Royals Review

Media: Fox Sports Detroit, MLB.TV, Tigers Radio Network

Pitching Matchup: RHP Jeremy Guthrie (3-6, 4.04 ERA) vs. LHP Drew Smyly (3-5, 3.58 ERA)

Finally, right? After facing a pair of starters outperforming their preseason expectations, the Tigers finally get right-hander Jeremy Guthrie, the only Royals starter with an ERA above 3.50. Not so fast, Tigers fans. After getting blown up by the Seattle Mariners over a month ago, Guthrie has a 3.10 ERA in 40 2/3 innings in his last six starts. His 25:13 strikeout-to-walk ratio during that period isn't pretty (like usual), but he has held opponents to a .657 OPS on a relatively modest .283 BABIP. If that were not bad enough for the Tigers' chances, consider this: Guthrie's 3.10 ERA in the last month would rank second on the Tigers' roster by over a run and a half.

Overall, Guthrie is essentially the same pitcher he has always been. His season-long ERA, FIP, and xFIP are nearly identical to 2013's final numbers, and his strikeout and walk rates have not changed much either. He is allowing a higher percentage of fly balls this season at the expense of a lower line drive rate, resulting in a 28 point drop in BABIP. He is still homer prone, especially when pitching outside the expansive confines of Kauffman Stadium. Of the 13 home runs he has allowed in 2014, nine have come on the road. However, he has only given up two long balls in his last six starts (four of which came at home).

Drew Smyly delivered the best start of his young career in the last series between these two teams, holding the Royals scoreless through seven innings. He only allowed two hits and two walks while striking out six and was as dominant as we have ever seen. That Royals lineup did not feature the likes of Salvador Perez and Lorenzo Cain, but Smyly's platoon splits will be a helpful weapon against Eric Hosmer, Alex Gordon, and Mike Moustakas. The trio of lefties has combined for eight hits in the first two games of this series, including a pair of home runs. The righties may still pose a problem -- Smyly's OPS against righties is at .861 as of this morning -- but facing them without runners on base (assuming Ned Yost continues to alternate righties and lefties tonight) will be an improvement.

Hitter to fear: Billy Butler (.625/.667/.750 in 9 plate appearances)
Hitter to fail: Alex Gordon (.071/.188/.071 in 16 plate appearances)

As one might expect given our constant discussion of his platoon splits, the Royals' righties hit Smyly well. Billy Butler has done the most damage, with five hits in eight at-bats. Butler has tormented the first two starters in this series as well, racking up four hits and three RBI. Salvador Perez homered off Smyly in their only matchup, while Alcides Escobar's .636 OPS is about all you can expect out of Alcides Escobar's bat. Mike Moustakas has bucked the lefty trend with three hits in seven at-bats, but Eric Hosmer and Alex Gordon have struggled their way to just three hits in 26 combined at-bats.

Outlook

Last season, the Tigers lost the first three games in a four game series against the Oakland Athletics in August. If it were not for a ninth inning comeback off former A's closer Grant Balfour, they would have been swept at a fairly pivotal point in the season before an important series with the Cleveland Indians. Granted, they were not in the same type of funk that this year's team is, but the team was 9-11 in its previous 20 games before Torii Hunter's walkoff home run landed in the bullpen. There are signs of life, particularly on the offensive side of the ball, and a solid starting pitching performance should see them get back into the win column.

Prediction

Miguel Cabrera hits a first-pitch homer today.

[TLO]

I'd normally feel pessimistic about a game like this.

**** that noise.

Let's go win 10 straight bitches!!

[Unsmooth-Moment]

In for 10.

[KChiefs1]

This is interesting:

www.royalsreview.com

Lots of Bad Contact, Historically

We know that the Royals make a lot of contact. How do they rank historically?

As the rate of strikeouts in the MLB has increased, the Royals have bucked the trend by making lots of contact. The problems with this strategy as employed by the Royals have been documented. I'll skip the long of it and give you the short of it: the Royals are really good at making contact with pitches out of the zone, which leads to easy outs on balls in play.

The fact that the Royals are striking out less while the rest of the league is striking out more piqued my curiosity. I wanted to see how the Royals ranked historically in this whole business. So, what I did was to get the data on a team level for 1969 to now*. I then compared each team's strikeout rate to the league average by dividing the team's strikeout rate by the league average strikeout rate and multiplying by 100. I'll call this K%+. A 100 K%+ means a league average K% for that year. Below 100 means a lower strikeout rate than average, and above 100 means a higher strikeout rate than average.

Here is a table of the top 10.

*Data current as of the morning of June 18th, 2014.

Season Team K%+ wRC+
1969 Braves 71.7 92
1986 Red Sox 73.4 103
1982 Indians 74.2 96
2014 Royals 74.4 90
1980 Rangers 74.4 107
2002 Angels 75.6 105
1984 Yankees 75.7 108
1981 Indians 76.8 94
1979 Yankees 77.6 99
1988 Red Sox 78.2 115

You'll notice that your 2014 Royals place 4th. This means that the Royals, relative to league average since 1969, are striking out at the 4th lowest rate. They are striking out about 25.6% less than league average. A fat lot of good that's done them.

Place your attention on the wRC+ column. See the Royals' number. Be disappointed. The Royals have a 90 wRC+. Of the teams who strike out so little, this 2014 Royals team has the worst offense. To find the first team with a wRC+ below 90, I had to go down several rows to the....2000 Royals, who had an 89 wRC+ and struck out about 20.6% less than league average, which ranked 23rd.

Out of a desire to see the car wreck magically turn into a train wreck, I delved further down the list. The 1999 Rockies were the next team on the list with a wRC+ below 90 (it was 84) and a K%+ below 100. The very next team was the 1992 Royals, with a wRC+ of 88 and a K%+ of 83. The 2001 Royals make an appearance with a wRC+ of 82 and a K%+ of 83.8. Here's a line graph of how wRC+ and K%+ have progressed over time for the Royals.

Historical_wrc__and_k__

There are a lot of numbers below 100 for both K%+ and wRC+. The point, here, is that the Royals, now and historically, are really good at not striking out, and therefore making contact. The second and much worse point is that the Royals, now and historically, are really bad at turning that contact into a good offense.

To be fair, this analysis has changed as the Royals have accumulated more games under Lord Sveum's tutelage. When I first gathered data, the Royals were at an 81 wRC+. The next iteration had them at an 84 wRC+. They are now at the totally arbitrary but magical cutoff of 90 wRC+. It's fun how much things can change in a hot streak. We're in first place now, and stuff. Their relative suckitude is getting better as the season rolls along, but the larger point still stands.

It seems that some sort of organizational philosophy has pervaded through ownership, GMs, coaches, eras, and decades. Only in the late 70s did the Royals consistently produce an above average offense while striking out less than league average. The Royals are still trying to live in the time of disco. Not this disco. This disco.

Disco is dead.

All data courtesy of FanGraphs.