Chiefs' offense: "one of the worst in the league, by nearly every measure"

[the Talking Can]

http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2013/9...chiefs-offense

some numbers to chew on from arrowhead pride

The Chiefs are actually 12th in the league in PPG, at 23.7. But if you take away the 14 points the defense is directly responsible for, that number drops to 19 PPG, which would be tied for 23rd - with the Raiders. The Chiefs are relying on the defense to score points, which isn't good. Defensive scoring is random and shouldn't be part of the game plan. They didn't need Tamba Hali's pick-6 to beat the Jaguars, but they did need Eric Berry's against the Eagles.

They also are just not moving the ball; their 333 yds/gm is 21st in the league and their 4.9 yds/play ranks 25th. "Well Kyle," you may ask, " if the Chiefs offense is so bad, how are they undefeated this year?" That's an excellent question, thank you for asking. The answer is that the defense and special teams are much, much better than we thought.

The problem the Chiefs are having is getting to the Red Zone in the first place. They're 30th in yards per drive, with only Tampa Bay and Jacksonville behind them, and Cleveland directly in front of them (not good company to be in). This is a really, really bad offense. But here's the real kicker: the Chiefs' offense has the best starting field position in the NFL this year, and still can't score.

The Chiefs average 17 yards per drive better field position than their opponents (ok, ok, 16.95), the best mark in the NFL (2nd table). Only two other teams average more than 10 yards better starting field position than their opponents (New England and Chicago). The Chiefs' average starting line of scrimmage (LOS) is their own 36.97 yard line (best in the NFL), while their opponents average starting LOS is their own 20.02 yard line (also best in the NFL). What all of that means is the Chiefs's offense is handed consistently great starting field position and can't do anything with it, then they let the special teams pin opponents deep in their own territory. The defense bails out the offense by not letting opponents move the ball, giving the offense the ball back with great starting field position. Lather, rinse, repeat.

There's a nice breakdown of our defense against philly over there as well:
http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2013/9/2...p-kelly-eagles

I have to reiterate and emphasize just how much the Chiefs played man to man -- like a ton of it. And they have the secondary to handle it, unlike most teams in the NFL. Specifically, they matched up Sean Smith on Cooper a lot on the outside. If this had been a prize fight, Cooper's corner would have thrown in the towel somewhere around the middle of the second quarter. Smith owned him right up until the end of the game when he started cramping up. Cooper just couldn't shake him, especially on those aforementioned deep routes Kelly had him running all game.

[the Talking Can]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

I feel like everybody needs to read Urban Myers comments/criticism of Alex Smith.

It really does explain a ton and coming from his college coach it carries a lot of weight with me.

Smith's not going to make those plays while running until he feels 100% comfortable in the offense. Sure, we'd like him to be there immediately, but you can see that he isn't. With SF - he got there. There's a reason the guy was able to complete 70% of his passes last season (and Kap is at 56% this year under the same 'guru').

He's not gonna hammer the accelerator if he can't see the apex and the exit to the corner. It's just not who he is.

But his history does suggest that he'll make those plays, just like Gannon, when he feels like he knows the offense. He's a poor-man's Manning; he doesn't want to 'feel' the offense, he wants to run it according to the script. He's the Anti-Favre.

deez beat me to it...but I don't want to hear about having to wait for a 29 year old vet QB we traded multiple picks for to develop...seeing the play down field under pressure isn't a scheme specific skill, it's a talent you have or don't

on this point we'll just have to agree to disagree

and re: the gannon discussion

if I remember correctly, he was signed by the Raiders as a FA, he didn't cost them anything, so it's really not a straight comparison

i'd give much less of a shit about Smith if he were free

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by l4z4rd

He doesn't put the defense into a bad situation. He rarely turns the ball over on his side of the field, and if the drive stalls the opposing team usually has to drive the length of the field to score.

This. I really don't care as much about not stretching the field if he keeps doing this. Where he has to improve is he HAS to get much better in the red zone and he had better learn to be nails in the clutch. If he does those two things, I'm actually okay with Alex Smith (and I'm not necessarily a big fan). But it's seeming more and more that offenses who can play efficient offense make their defense better.

[Sandy Vagina]

Originally Posted by FringeNC

I just don't understand why so many of you guys think there is zero chance we will have an above average offense by the end of the year. Sure, it's not very good now, but when I watch games, I see the O-line getting blown up damn near every play. Personally, I think Alex Smith has played well, and I have some optimism that the Chiefs O will get better. I guess that makes me a True Fan.

Originally Posted by BigChiefTablet

I don't even care if we mostly dink and dunk it, but they gotta make it work, which has been pretty hit and miss with a lot of 3 and outs so far. The threat of the deep ball backs the defense up so the short stuff can actually work.

It's not JUST Alex Smith, there are other problems that have been discussed, but he doesn't just get a free pass. Peyton Manning hasn't turned the ball over this year, either. Does anybody think we can beat them going 3 and out for an entire quarter of play?

I get sick of the dink and dunk, too. But I'll happily take it if they get it running consistently.

Most of this, I agree with. OL penalties and stuffed runs need to be less frequent, and the receiver drops lessening would help this dink-and-dunk offense greatly though.

(and small potatoes, but Manning had a fumble lost in his last game vs Oakland)

Originally Posted by BossChief

You guys make it seem like we would have lost games by throwing picks on deep passes instead of punting because we don't try to.

Read the op. We have the best starting field position of any team and aren't doing a lot with it. I bet we have the most punts in opponents territory of anyone.

FFS we have a really good defense that is built to protect a mistake or 4 without having to pay too severly for them.

Can't disagree with this, really.

[Coogs]

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501

This. I really don't care as much about not stretching the field if he keeps doing this. Where he has to improve is he HAS to get much better in the red zone and he had better learn to be nails in the clutch. If he does those two things, I'm actually okay with Alex Smith (and I'm not necessarily a big fan). But it's seeming more and more that offenses who can play efficient offense make their defense better.

We had 5 trips to the red zone before last Thursday's game, and we had 5 TD's. We were bound to not score a TD on every trip in there.

[Sandy Vagina]

Originally Posted by BossChief

I wonder what Alex does with his defense that makes such a difference.

He left SF and their defense is sucking chili dogs
He goes to KC and we are raping like we are the 96 Chiefs d

Alex may put together longer drives, but overall, it is the turnovers and inept offense from Kaepernick.

Against Seattle, Kaep turned the ball over 4 times.. 3 of them were on the short side of the field... 2 INTs were returned inside the 25 and inside the 5. Against the Colts, the D held Indy to 13 points through 50 minutes of the game... but the SF offense couldn't do shit.

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by Bearcat

Baltimore scored 31ppg in the playoffs last year... Flacco threw for 11 yards in 4 games with a 9ypa and 117 rating. Seattle lost last year despite throwing for 385 yards and scoring 28 points. Houston lost their playoff game 41-28 last year. The 2011 Giants scored 25.5pgg in the postseason, and Manning threw for over 1200 yards in 4 games. The 49ers last year gave up 31 points in two of their games and in 2011 had to beat the Saints 36-32 on Smith's 300 yards/3TDs (and Brees threw for 460 that game, but didn't have 140 yards rushing to back it up like the 49ers did).

There are almost no guarantees in anything, so it's pointless to even say... the overwhelming trend is that you need elite QB play to win deep in the playoffs, which can only be overcome by elite play at several other positions, such an entire defense.

The Ravens ran the ball over 30 times (and usually over 35 times) in each of those playoff games. Just because a QB runs an efficient offense, doesn't mean he isn't going to get yards. Eli was also a master at running an efficient offense in their two Super Bowl runs. Flacco was a master in the playoffs because he ran an efficient offense and then had a few HUGE yardage plays sprinkled in between.

Teams like the Saints and Packers, they usually run the ball less than 20 times. Both were outside the top 20 in rushing attempts in 2012.

[Sandy Vagina]

Originally Posted by the Talking Can

I don't want to hear about having to wait for a 29 year old vet QB we traded multiple picks for to develop...seeing the play down field under pressure isn't a scheme specific skill, it's a talent you have or don't

Still needs SOME time to click with his new receivers. He has to learn their subtleties. His accuracy greatly improved in SF because he learned that each receiver had strengths and weaknesses in their catch radius. So he knew that some targets needed to be thrown to with more touch and to the body... others showed that they could snatch the stronger outside passes.

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

Yeah, that tends to happen when you have to score 40 to win.

Christ, the Saints gave up 30+ points to an Alex Smith offense.

Watching the 49ers, it's more than fair to ask if an offense that runs way too fast puts your defense at a disadvantage.

[Titty Meat]

Andy Reid is 78-12 when his teams are on the right side of turnovers. While I think the Chiefs paid too much for Smith he was the best option for this year.

[Halfcan]

Geez does Every thread have to turn into a Alex Sucks / Kape is better / we gave too much for him / we should have drafted Geno / the Chiefs are doomed!!!!

[chiefzilla1501]

Originally Posted by dirk digler

You make a good point but I would add you have to be able to move the ball in chunks at various times and you have to put up points. I just don't believe dinking and dunking down the field isn't going to cut it in the NFL anymore.

Yup. I'm not a big Alex Smith fan. But I think people have the misperception that you have to run a Drew Brees offense to be successful, and that's just not at all the case. The Ravens and the Giants are examples of teams that tend to be really difficult to stop in the playoffs, and they do it by playing efficiently. These guys do similar things as Alex Smith does, but they can also make big plays (when needed) and are the definition of a game manager, where within reason they can take what the defense gives them (which means being able to shoot out, if needed).

[Sandy Vagina]

Originally Posted by Bo's Pelini

Andy Reid is 78-12 when his teams are on the right side of turnovers. While I think the Chiefs paid too much for Smith he was the best option for this year.

[the Talking Can]

Originally Posted by Halfcan

Geez does Every thread have to turn into a Alex Sucks / Kape is better / we gave too much for him / we should have drafted Geno / the Chiefs are doomed!!!!

what do you want, every thread to be about getting raped by your babysitter or something?

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501

The Ravens ran the ball over 30 times (and usually over 35 times) in each of those playoff games. Just because a QB runs an efficient offense, doesn't mean he isn't going to get yards. Eli was also a master at running an efficient offense in their two Super Bowl runs. Flacco was a master in the playoffs because he ran an efficient offense and then had a few HUGE yardage plays sprinkled in between.

Teams like the Saints and Packers, they usually run the ball less than 20 times. Both were outside the top 20 in rushing attempts in 2012.

However you look at it, those QBs put up good passing numbers and those offenses had to put up points. Hell, if people aren't comfortable with "there's overwhelming evidence that you need elite QB play to win deep into the playoffs (unless you have a lot of shit to make up for it, like an elite defense)", think of it as needing a lot of points, regardless of where they come from. Then, all you have to do is look at scores and try to fool yourself (not you, specifically) into thinking you can win with a decent defense and mediocre QB.

So, about those 28+ points you'll need when going up against the Mannings and Rodgers of the world, are you more comfortable relying on your offense or defense to get them? Assuming you know the purpose of each and picked offense, are you going to rely more on a run/short pass game or stretching the field? And like you said, it's not like 'stretching the field' means every drive or whatever... but, it does mean taking chances.

You can call those offenses efficient or whatever... and they certainly aren't DV-style offense.... but, the QBs still put up elite numbers and you have to get the points somehow.

[DeezNutz]

Originally Posted by Mac-NinersChiefs

Still needs SOME time to click with his new receivers. He has to learn their subtleties. His accuracy greatly improved in SF because he learned that each receiver had strengths and weaknesses in their catch radius. So he knew that some targets needed to be thrown to with more touch and to the body... others showed that they could snatch the stronger outside passes.

Yeah, I'm not buying this narrative of Alex Smith as astute QBing surgeon.

He processes SO MUCH information!!! It's ****ing unbelievable!!! He's like P. Manning, without the physical talent or testicles!