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Old 10-24-2013, 10:25 PM  
cdcox cdcox is offline
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Math does not respect the Chiefs
Even though we are the only undefeated team, we only have a 6% chance of winning the Super Bowl. Ahead of us are:

Seattle 35%
Denver 16%
Cincinnati 11%
Indy 8%

and tied with SF.

This is according to my nfl-forecast.com software using team efficiency ratings from advancednflstats.com
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Old 10-24-2013, 10:26 PM   #2
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Old 10-24-2013, 10:27 PM   #3
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**** math.
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Old 10-24-2013, 10:28 PM   #4
BigBeauford BigBeauford is online now
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That's fine. The majority of teams we have faced are garbage. Until we have a true test (denver) you can't gauge this teams ability to respond to adversity. We are essentially a mid-major pounding on cupcakes in the mean time.
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Old 10-24-2013, 10:29 PM   #5
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Your software really likes teams who throw the ball down the field.
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Old 10-24-2013, 10:32 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pam Oliver's Forehead View Post
Your software really likes teams who throw the ball down the field.
Never though Andy Dalton would be lumped into that category, but the kid has stones.
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Old 10-24-2013, 10:32 PM   #7
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All those teams could probably beat us. Math wins.
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Old 10-24-2013, 10:33 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pam Oliver's Forehead View Post
Your software really likes teams who throw the ball down the field.
That would be the advancednflstats.com team efficiency ratings. That's because efficient passing has the strongest correlation with winning. Fortunately, the Chiefs are good at imposing inefficient passing on the opposing team.
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Old 10-24-2013, 10:34 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pam Oliver's Forehead View Post
Your software really likes teams who throw the ball down the field.
The Seahawks are 25th in passing
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Old 10-24-2013, 10:35 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
Even though we are the only undefeated team, we only have a 6% chance of winning the Super Bowl. Ahead of us are:

Seattle 35%
Denver 16%
Cincinnati 11%
Indy 8%

and tied with SF.

This is according to my nfl-forecast.com software using team efficiency ratings from advancednflstats.com
I think 6% is overly optimistic personally.
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Old 10-24-2013, 10:35 PM   #11
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Sounds like Advanced Calculus to me.
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Old 10-24-2013, 10:35 PM   #12
ThaVirus ThaVirus is offline
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Cdcox, how successful have your statistics been at determining playoff and Super Bowl success in past seasons?
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Old 10-24-2013, 10:39 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud View Post
The Seahawks are 25th in passing
That's because their attempts are low.

The Seahawks are a very efficient passing team.

Wilson is 6th in the league in completions of 20+ air yards, and 6th in the NFL in yards per completion and yards per attempt.

They can get chunks in the passing game.
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Old 10-24-2013, 10:40 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaneMcCloud View Post
The Seahawks are 25th in passing
But they are 7th in passing efficiency which is much more important than total passing yards.
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Old 10-24-2013, 10:40 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by theelusiveeightrop View Post
Sounds like Advanced Calculus to me.
6% huh?.....So you're saying there's a chance?
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