Chiefs Author says Watkins signing was a "reckless decision". - Page 8

T-post Tom · 01:46 PM

Overcorrection at WR2 strange strategy for Chiefs

For over a decade, the Kansas City Chiefs either could not find the right No. 2 wide receiver or deemed the job a low priority.

The Andy Reid years regarded the role as a non-essential component in an offense that funnels through Travis Kelce, whoever is playing running back, and the player lining up as Kansas City’s No. 1 wideout. The Chiefs — who have spent over half of the past 30 years running their aerial attack through All-Pro-caliber tight ends — have not had two wide receivers amass more than 800 air yards in the same season since Carlos Carson and Stephone Paige did so in 1985.

Even last summer — when the Chiefs, on the surface, seemed to have a quality wideout tandem in Tyreek Hill and Jeremy Maclin — the franchise’s tendencies resurfaced when Maclin was a surprise cut.

To see the Chiefs overcorrect to the degree they did this week in signing Sammy Watkins was stunning on several fronts.

If everything goes as the team hopes, the Chiefs now have the best wide receiver duo they’ve possessed in the history of the franchise. The top four weapons Kansas City has could rival almost any crew in the league, with a perennial Pro Bowler at tight end and the reigning rushing champion in the mix for years. Reid and Brett Veach have outfitted Patrick Mahomes with the kind of artillery Alex Smith never received. It’s a tantalizing setup.

All of that said, this can be categorized as a reckless decision.

In a vacuum, Watkins being paid $16 million per year and receiving $30M guaranteed is ludicrous based on his qualifications. He’s now the fourth-highest-paid wide receiver on the planet when he might not be a top-20 player at the position. But free agency demands high-stakes buyers treat above-average talent like franchise-changing presences, and the cap continues to rise by approximately $10M annually.

When analyzing this transaction through a Chief lens, it’s also a weird call.

As has been the case every year since the Eddie Kennison-Johnnie Morton pair disbanded, the Chiefs could have probably used a WR2 upgrade. They haven’t selected a wideout in the first or second rounds since the disastrous 2011 Jonathan Baldwin pick. Watkins, at his very best version when healthy, is slightly overqualified to be referred to as such. Hill took a major step forward last season, though, and is the top Chief receiver. There were several areas that could have used this gigantic expenditure more than wide receiver.

Kansas City has needs across its defense, which continued to regress last season. Its top two edge rushers are injury-prone, with one (Dee Ford) proving unreliable through four years. There are no long-term answers on the defensive line beyond Chris Jones. Since the Chiefs traded away their best cornerback in at least 20 years, that is a priority.

More than that, how much is Watkins going to matter to this team?

His agent did a brilliant job, and there was clearly a big market for him — and other receivers, as this unexpected boom displayed. Equipping a young quarterback with more receiving help is a good idea. Watkins has averaged the fourth-most yards per catch (15.9) since 2014. The deep threat also has produced an arguably unsustainable (but impressive) touchdown rate with 25 in 52 games. But there’s a difference between the Bears doling out $14M per year to Allen Robinson and this.

Chicago desperately needed offensive weapons, having no threats at wide receiver or tight end. The Chiefs have — now that Rob Gronkowski is a year-to-year proposition — the most valuable tight end in the game. Hill is on the verge of becoming one of the NFL’s premier wideouts.

Reid’s playbook has used this job as a niche role. Kelce will still be the offensive focal point, and Hunt’s and Hill’s futures are glowing. Granted, Watkins is better than Albert Wilson, Chris Conley or Donnie Avery. But is Watkins — in this offense — worth $16 million when other positions are in dire need of aid?

This is like an NBC executive circa 2009 saying, “We really aren’t getting what we need out of the HR character on ‘The Office.’ What can we offer Seth Rogen to come in and replace Toby?”

As you may have heard, Watkins did not exactly thrive in his contract year. Despite being part of a cutting-edge Ram scheme, the former No. 4 pick caught 39 passes for 593 yards (a distant fourth in Sean McVay’s attack) and eight touchdowns.

To some degree, that showing could be written off because of Watkins’ late-offseason relocation. That would justify the Chiefs’ investment if Watkins wasn’t constantly battling nagging or season-defining injuries. Multiple severe foot ailments limited him to eight games in 2016. Two screws were inserted in Watkins’ foot in January of 2017 after recovery setbacks. An ankle injury cost him two games in 2015, and while he didn’t miss any games as a rookie, the Clemson product required hip surgery after the 2014 season. But he did play in every regular season game the Rams asked him to last year.

Coupled with the fit and the shaky contract year, this is a lot to disregard to justify the expense.

Reid remains one of the best offensive coaches in the game. He created an offense catered to an average quarterback’s talents, and the Chiefs rode it to four playoff berths in five years. The Mahomes offense could look remarkably different. Watkins — who will be only 25 this season — nearly posted back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons with Kyle Orton and Tyrod Taylor targeting him. However, that still doesn’t justify paying an arguably superfluous cog $16M per season.

Cheaper receivers were available. Signing one of those could have created more room to find defensive help while still upgrading on offense. This deal won’t cripple the Chiefs in the long run, but within the next three years, Hill will need to be extended.

He has two more seasons remaining on his rookie contract and likely will outproduce Watkins this season. Hill will be eligible for an extension in 2019. That could be confusing and cause cuts elsewhere when a hired gun with a low floor and debatable ceiling is now making more than Julio Jones and A.J. Green. No team has more than two WRs making $12M per year.

Again, this upgrades the Chiefs’ offense — perhaps significantly, given the attention that could come Watkins’ way to then help teammates. With a first-round quarterback with potentially top-flight arm strength, this will make the Chiefs a must-see team on offense.

Yet, it’s hard to rationalize the signing for a team that did not need to allocate these resources to fixing this particular deficiency — especially when the player comes with this many question marks.

https://www.fanragsports.com/chiefs/overcorrection-at-wr2-strange-strategy-for-chiefs/

BleedingRed · 03-20-2018, 09:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by notorious

And Jim Kelly?

Honestly makes him look worse.... 1 SB with 6 chances....... Because he couldn't build a complete team.

**Rain Man** · 03-20-2018, 09:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Couch-Potato

Interesting Contract Structure:

Watkins' $21 million signing bonus from the Chiefs is the 16th-highest ever, the fourth-highest ever for a non-quarterback and the highest ever for a wide receiver. Obviously, that's guaranteed, as is his $790,000 2018 salary and $8.21 million of his $11.95 million 2019 salary. Which means $30 million in real guarantees at signing and a contract structure that would make it tough for the Chiefs to cut Watkins after only one season. His top-line numbers are $48 million for three years, but he's guaranteed to make at least 62.5 percent of that, and the chances of him earning his full 2019 salary are high.

I've never thought about this before, but we really should respect these guys for showing up in the second year. If I pocketed $22 million in one year, I'd really be thinking hard about whether I wanted to go back and risk injury versus buying a really nice houseboat.

penchief · 03-20-2018, 02:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Superturtle

Well, several of his points were just flat out factually wrong.

Polian also criticized the chiefs during last year's draft for moving up to take Mahomes when they should have drafted someone that would help them win "now."

He couldn't have been more wrong then and he's probably equally as wrong now. What he says shouldn't carry any weight at all.

Hydrae · 03-20-2018, 02:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BleedingRed

Honestly makes him look worse.... 1 SB with 6 chances....... Because he couldn't build a complete team.

Yeah, it must have sucked to go to 4 SBs in a row. And they were actually in a few, unlike any other AFC representative during the 90s.

Mecca · 03-20-2018, 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pestilence

Bill Polian is a ****ing moron. Yet another GM who “looks great” because of Peyton Manning.

This dude said he had a 1st round grade on Tom Brady, look it up. He's old and senile and wants credit for false things.

keg in kc · 03-20-2018, 03:33 PM

Calling the writer of that piece of shit article an author is even dumber than the article itself.

The idea that the signing is bad because Reid hasn't had a productive #2 receiver is inane as well. That might be a valid point if Alex Smith was still running the offense, or if we had ever had someone capable there and not, say, Conley or Wilson.

**MahiMike** · 03-20-2018, 07:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danguardace

Apologies if this is posted but Bill Polian hating

I love it even more now. Polian is an ass. I still remember last year when they had a mock draft with writers and he laughed at Teicher's pick of Mahomes - at 27!

Fug that guy.

OrtonsPiercedTaint · 03-20-2018, 07:44 PM

Clark has hired 2-3 GMs since he has been idle. He was rumored a candidate for atleast one of them

03-16-2018, 01:40 PM
T-post Tom Threepeat! Join Date: Aug 2002 Location: Milk/Honey/Gazland Casino cash: $4607293	Author says Watkins signing was a "reckless decision". Overcorrection at WR2 strange strategy for Chiefs For over a decade, the Kansas City Chiefs either could not find the right No. 2 wide receiver or deemed the job a low priority. The Andy Reid years regarded the role as a non-essential component in an offense that funnels through Travis Kelce, whoever is playing running back, and the player lining up as Kansas City’s No. 1 wideout. The Chiefs — who have spent over half of the past 30 years running their aerial attack through All-Pro-caliber tight ends — have not had two wide receivers amass more than 800 air yards in the same season since Carlos Carson and Stephone Paige did so in 1985. Even last summer — when the Chiefs, on the surface, seemed to have a quality wideout tandem in Tyreek Hill and Jeremy Maclin — the franchise’s tendencies resurfaced when Maclin was a surprise cut. To see the Chiefs overcorrect to the degree they did this week in signing Sammy Watkins was stunning on several fronts. If everything goes as the team hopes, the Chiefs now have the best wide receiver duo they’ve possessed in the history of the franchise. The top four weapons Kansas City has could rival almost any crew in the league, with a perennial Pro Bowler at tight end and the reigning rushing champion in the mix for years. Reid and Brett Veach have outfitted Patrick Mahomes with the kind of artillery Alex Smith never received. It’s a tantalizing setup. All of that said, this can be categorized as a reckless decision. In a vacuum, Watkins being paid $16 million per year and receiving $30M guaranteed is ludicrous based on his qualifications. He’s now the fourth-highest-paid wide receiver on the planet when he might not be a top-20 player at the position. But free agency demands high-stakes buyers treat above-average talent like franchise-changing presences, and the cap continues to rise by approximately $10M annually. When analyzing this transaction through a Chief lens, it’s also a weird call. As has been the case every year since the Eddie Kennison-Johnnie Morton pair disbanded, the Chiefs could have probably used a WR2 upgrade. They haven’t selected a wideout in the first or second rounds since the disastrous 2011 Jonathan Baldwin pick. Watkins, at his very best version when healthy, is slightly overqualified to be referred to as such. Hill took a major step forward last season, though, and is the top Chief receiver. There were several areas that could have used this gigantic expenditure more than wide receiver. Kansas City has needs across its defense, which continued to regress last season. Its top two edge rushers are injury-prone, with one (Dee Ford) proving unreliable through four years. There are no long-term answers on the defensive line beyond Chris Jones. Since the Chiefs traded away their best cornerback in at least 20 years, that is a priority. More than that, how much is Watkins going to matter to this team? His agent did a brilliant job, and there was clearly a big market for him — and other receivers, as this unexpected boom displayed. Equipping a young quarterback with more receiving help is a good idea. Watkins has averaged the fourth-most yards per catch (15.9) since 2014. The deep threat also has produced an arguably unsustainable (but impressive) touchdown rate with 25 in 52 games. But there’s a difference between the Bears doling out $14M per year to Allen Robinson and this. Chicago desperately needed offensive weapons, having no threats at wide receiver or tight end. The Chiefs have — now that Rob Gronkowski is a year-to-year proposition — the most valuable tight end in the game. Hill is on the verge of becoming one of the NFL’s premier wideouts. Reid’s playbook has used this job as a niche role. Kelce will still be the offensive focal point, and Hunt’s and Hill’s futures are glowing. Granted, Watkins is better than Albert Wilson, Chris Conley or Donnie Avery. But is Watkins — in this offense — worth $16 million when other positions are in dire need of aid? This is like an NBC executive circa 2009 saying, “We really aren’t getting what we need out of the HR character on ‘The Office.’ What can we offer Seth Rogen to come in and replace Toby?” As you may have heard, Watkins did not exactly thrive in his contract year. Despite being part of a cutting-edge Ram scheme, the former No. 4 pick caught 39 passes for 593 yards (a distant fourth in Sean McVay’s attack) and eight touchdowns. To some degree, that showing could be written off because of Watkins’ late-offseason relocation. That would justify the Chiefs’ investment if Watkins wasn’t constantly battling nagging or season-defining injuries. Multiple severe foot ailments limited him to eight games in 2016. Two screws were inserted in Watkins’ foot in January of 2017 after recovery setbacks. An ankle injury cost him two games in 2015, and while he didn’t miss any games as a rookie, the Clemson product required hip surgery after the 2014 season. But he did play in every regular season game the Rams asked him to last year. Coupled with the fit and the shaky contract year, this is a lot to disregard to justify the expense. Reid remains one of the best offensive coaches in the game. He created an offense catered to an average quarterback’s talents, and the Chiefs rode it to four playoff berths in five years. The Mahomes offense could look remarkably different. Watkins — who will be only 25 this season — nearly posted back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons with Kyle Orton and Tyrod Taylor targeting him. However, that still doesn’t justify paying an arguably superfluous cog $16M per season. Cheaper receivers were available. Signing one of those could have created more room to find defensive help while still upgrading on offense. This deal won’t cripple the Chiefs in the long run, but within the next three years, Hill will need to be extended. He has two more seasons remaining on his rookie contract and likely will outproduce Watkins this season. Hill will be eligible for an extension in 2019. That could be confusing and cause cuts elsewhere when a hired gun with a low floor and debatable ceiling is now making more than Julio Jones and A.J. Green. No team has more than two WRs making $12M per year. Again, this upgrades the Chiefs’ offense — perhaps significantly, given the attention that could come Watkins’ way to then help teammates. With a first-round quarterback with potentially top-flight arm strength, this will make the Chiefs a must-see team on offense. Yet, it’s hard to rationalize the signing for a team that did not need to allocate these resources to fixing this particular deficiency — especially when the player comes with this many question marks. https://www.fanragsports.com/chiefs/overcorrection-at-wr2-strange-strategy-for-chiefs/ Last edited by T-post Tom; 03-16-2018 at 01:46 PM..
Posts: 20,195

03-20-2018, 03:33 PM	#111
keg in kc oxymoron Join Date: Feb 2001 Location: OP/KC/Whatever Casino cash: $9556299	Calling the writer of that piece of shit article an author is even dumber than the article itself. The idea that the signing is bad because Reid hasn't had a productive #2 receiver is inane as well. That might be a valid point if Alex Smith was still running the offense, or if we had ever had someone capable there and not, say, Conley or Wilson.
Posts: 58,682

03-20-2018, 07:44 PM	#113
OrtonsPiercedTaint MVP Join Date: Dec 2012 Casino cash: $10004980	Clark has hired 2-3 GMs since he has been idle. He was rumored a candidate for atleast one of them
Posts: 5,994