PFF's 2016 Chiefs Season Preview

[OnTheWarpath15]

https://www.profootballfocus.com/pro...m_campaign=nfl

The Kansas City Chiefs were one of the most compelling stories of the 2015 NFL season. After starting 1-5 and losing their best offensive player, the Chiefs won 10 straight regular season games, followed by their first playoff victory since January of 1994. The Chiefs began the offseason with a difficult offseason – with defensive stalwarts Eric Berry (88.0 PFF rating last year), Derrick Johnson (87.4), Tamba Hali (87.6), Sean Smith (83.8) and Jaye Howard (81.6) all set to hit free agency, along with emerging guard Jeff Allen (85.5). The Chiefs were able to retain all of said players, with the exceptions of Smith and Allen. A solid draft, the return of star running back Jamaal Charles (79.0), and uncertainty atop the AFC West make 2016 a season of opportunity in Kansas City. Below we summarize how the Chiefs’ personnel stacks up against the rest of the league, and preview each position group heading into 2016.

The solid-but-unspectacular Smith leads the way

Quarterbacks: 19th in PFF’s preseason rankings

The Alex Smith case has always been an enigmatic one – with play that is consistent enough to build a winning team around (as his teams’ records of 49-21-1 over the last five years would attest), but with a lack of high-end production that leaves you wanting more. After a slow start to the 2015 season, Smith graded positively in all but three games in the Chief’s 11-game winning streak. His elusiveness (which earned a 91.7 run grade in 2015, seventh among quarterbacks) has been a nice aspect of the Chiefs’ running game, as well as buffered against some of Kansas City’s shaky offensive line play since he took over in 2013 (although he was responsible for nine of his hurries last season). It will be interesting to see if the Chiefs can reach the upper echelon of the AFC with Smith as their quarterback, as they appear committed to him at least for the near future.

West and Ware did well, but this is Charles’ job

Running backs: Third

The amazing aspect of the Chiefs’ winning streak a year ago was the fact that it began after the season-ending ACL injury to Charles, who has been their best player offensively since 2010. While Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware graded positively as runners in his stead, our Mike Renner aptly wrote “It’s all about Charles (in 2016), though, when he’s healthy; no running back slips through tighter creases along the line of scrimmage, and Charles is a threat to take it to the house from anywhere on the field.” The big-play threat Charles represents has helped the Chiefs curb the offensive difficulties associated with lacking a big play threat on the outside (until Jeremy Maclin arrived in 2015).

Maclin and Kelce form an above-average 1-2 punch

Receiving corps: 28th

The addition of Maclin helped a wide receiver group that was historically inept in 2014 by hauling in 87 of 120 targets in the regular season, dropping just one pass and scoring eight touchdowns (good for a 115.6 passer rating on his targets). Having Maclin on the outside freed up space for tight end Travis Kelce over the middle as well. Kelce, while showing a decline in his overall grade from 2014 to 2015 – mostly due to run-blocking — was still a very dynamic tight end. His 16 forced missed tackles tied for the most among tight ends last season, while his 541 yards after the catch were second. Vying for snaps alongside Maclin are incumbents Albert Wilson, Chris Conley and De’Anthony Thomas, along with newcomers Rod Streater, Demarcus Robinson and Tyreek Hill. Streater is an especially interesting case – with the Raiders in 2013 he had the 26th-best receiving grade in 773 snaps, with a respectable 1.80 yards per route run despite significant limitations at the quarterback position that season.

Plenty of faces to replace two big names

Offensive line: 17th

The Chiefs lost guards Ben Grubbs and Jeff Allen this offseason, while acquiring tackle Mitchell Schwartz to pair with 2013 first overall pick Eric Fisher. Fisher has struggled playing both right and left tackle since arriving in Kansas City, although his grades have increased each year. If he can continue to improve, he and Schwartz (the sixth-highest-graded tackle in the league last season) can be a formidable tackle duo. Mitch Morse held his own last season at center, committing just one penalty, finishing 16th in overall run-blocking grades and 14th in pass-blocking efficiency (97.2) among centers. Guard remains an issue, with unproven players Zach Fulton, Larry Duvernay-Tardif, Jordan Devey, Jah Reid, Jarrod Pughsley and rookie Parker Ehinger looking to replace the production lost by the departures of Grubbs and Allen.

A strength continues to be a strength

Front-seven: Seventh

The Chiefs’ front seven has been a strength of the team for the entire Andy Reid era, and with the return of Johnson, Hali and Howard, as well as the selection of rookie Chris Jones in the second round of the draft, the group appears set to carry the defense again in 2016. Superstar edge defender Justin Houston had knee surgery in the offseason, which is a concern, since 2014 first-round pick Dee Ford has yet to fully emerge as a third competent edge rusher. As PFF’s Ben Stockwell wrote, the Chiefs’ “defensive line is a force against the run, but is perhaps the most ‘old school’ 3-4 D-Line, offering very little in terms of a pass-rushing force.” This makes the healthy return of Houston, the league’s second-most productive 3-4 outside linebacker last season (with a pass-rushing productivity of 15.3), or the development of Ford (with a pass-rushing productivity of 10.0 last season), an issue of ultimate importance for the Chiefs as the 2016 approaches.

Berry’s big return continues

Secondary: 13th

The return of Eric Berry from Hodgkin’s lymphoma last season was one of the best stories in NFL history. His play on the field earned him PFF’s Comeback Player of the Year award, as well as the team’s franchise tag this offseason. He and Ron Parker, who doubles as a slot cornerback in sub packages, provide the Chiefs with a solid duo at the back end of their defense. Cornerback is another issue, where the narrative surrounding Marcus Peters’ production (nine interceptions) last season overshadowed some of his warts (1,057 yards and eight touchdowns allowed in coverage), as well as the lack of proven talent to replace the loss of Sean Smith. Phillip Gaines (67.9) appears ready to return from an ACL injury, and the 2016 draft brought the Chiefs Keivarae Russell, Eric Murray and D. J. White. However, Smith (the second-highest-graded coverage corner in 2014) was an established corner, whose steadiness in 2015 allowed for some growing pains on the part of Peters. The Chiefs were not the same team defensively when he missed the first three games last season, meaning they will not only need steady improvement from Peters, but also some of the aforementioned newcomers to emerge, in order to ensure a level of play commiserate to that of 2015, where they used six defensive backs more than any other team in the entire NFL.

[kcchiefsus]

The DL offers very little in pass rushing? These guys don't know shit.

[OnTheWarpath15]

Originally Posted by Bowser

I don't "hate" Wilson, I just don't think he's anything special. Here are his stats from last year -

35 rec, 451 yds, 2 TDs, 34 yds/GM

That's pretty pedestrian. Those numbers could have been literally anybody on any roster. I don't think Wilson brings any type of niche to the team, and if Streater and Robinson produce like they seem to be able to, they will more then make up for Wilson not being here.

If Wilson makes the team, he hopefully will have a hell of a camp and preseason. Probably means he's one of Andy's guys, as well.

And just because I have the page up, here are his two year career stats -

51 rec, 711 yds, 2TDs, 27 yds/GM,

He's JAG.

http://www.nfl.com/player/albertwils...72/careerstats

Persepctive:

BOTH Donnie Avery and Dexter McCluster bettered those marks in 2013.

[O.city]

Wilson is also a 2nd year udfa. Showed improvement from year to year.

That paired with the supposed complication of Reid's offense, I don't see a rookie overtaking him

[Bowser]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

Persepctive:

BOTH Donnie Avery and Dexter McCluster bettered those marks in 2013.

Lol, wow.

Welp, there you have it.

[Chiefshrink]

Originally Posted by kcchiefsus

The DL offers very little in pass rushing? These guys don't know shit.

Well, they do IF Houston doesn't come back 100% and Ford and Gaines play like JAGs. I think Chris Jones will be our saving grace regardless regardless of whatever scenario occurs. We know he has a big enough jock to handle the job

[O.city]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

Persepctive:

BOTH Donnie Avery and Dexter McCluster bettered those marks in 2013.

I also think you've gotta look at the situation.

The #2wr here is always going to be option 4 or 5. Behind maclin, kelce, Charles (rbs). Unless they start throwing it more, the second wr isn't gonna put up big numbers.

[Chiefshrink]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

Persepctive:

BOTH Donnie Avery and Dexter McCluster bettered those marks in 2013.

Originally Posted by O.city

Wilson is also a 2nd year udfa. Showed improvement from year to year.

That paired with the supposed complication of Reid's offense, I don't see a rookie overtaking him

And how effective were McCluster and Avery last year for their teams? Heck, how effective and significant was Wilson to our offense last year that actually needed that extra punch when Maclin got hurt at the end of the year. Yeah Wilson was effective and significant when needed last year.Not !!

[O.city]

If the hope is that wilson, as a 2nd year udfa wr, is going to be a replacement for maclin going into new england, well, I'm not sure what to say to that

[Chiefshrink]

Originally Posted by O.city

I also think you've gotta look at the situation.

The #2wr here is always going to be option 4 or 5. Behind maclin, kelce, Charles (rbs). Unless they start throwing it more, the second wr isn't gonna put up big numbers.

Oh trust me, if Wilson was all that Reid would have made sure he got the ball much more often when Mac went down.

Bottom line: Wilson got exposed for his lack of talent and especially gamership when needed last year. Dorsey has decided to move on. Just watch.

[Bowser]

If you're really pushing hard for Wilson, the one stat you can lean on is his percentage of first downs per catch. He's pretty decent in that area.

But again, he's not a guy that brings something special and unique to the team.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Chiefshrink

Oh trust me, if Wilson was all that Reid would have made sure he got the ball much more often when Mac went down.

Bottom line: Wilson got exposed for his lack of talent and especially gamership when needed last year. Dorsey has decided to move on. Just watch.

Yes, his 5 catches for 60 yards and a td against new england really showed he doesn't belong

[Chiefshrink]

Originally Posted by O.city

If the hope is that wilson, as a 2nd year udfa wr, is going to be a replacement for maclin going into new england, well, I'm not sure what to say to that

There are no excuses and why GMs/coaches want their No.2(if they can get that and what Reid/Dorsey are trying to do with Streater/Williams if possible) to have potential 1b talent if needed. Wilson barely has No.3 ability if that. And why Wilson exposed his lack of talent and gamership last year. He did not step up when he had the chance.

[DaneMcCloud]

The Chiefs will keep six receivers. Barring injury, Maclin, Conley, Robertson and Hill are locks, IMO.

That leaves 9 WR's fighting for the final two spots.

Da’Ron Brown, Seantavius Jones, Rod Streater, Albert Wilson, De’Anthony Thomas, Mike Williams, Mitch Mathews, Frankie Hammond and Kashif Moore.

Camp and preseason will be especially important for those players.

[OnTheWarpath15]

Originally Posted by O.city

I also think you've gotta look at the situation.

The #2wr here is always going to be option 4 or 5. Behind maclin, kelce, Charles (rbs). Unless they start throwing it more, the second wr isn't gonna put up big numbers.

That's exactly the point.

As Bowser said, those numbers could have been literally anybody on any roster.

There's nothing special about Wilson.

[O.city]

There's no doubt wilson isn't a number 1 guy. I don't think he's an outside guy to be honest either. But having him in the slot is something his abilities have shown he should be able to do well.