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Old 11-15-2018, 07:59 AM  
HonestChieffan HonestChieffan is offline
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OOPS....another Climate Change Lie Correction

The science is settled? But it's the math that's hard?



The scientists behind a headline-grabbing global warming study did something that seems all too rare these days — they admitted to making mistakes and thanked the researcher, a global warming skeptic, who pointed them out.

“When we were confronted with his insight it became immediately clear there was an issue there,” study co-author Ralph Keeling told The San Diego Union-Tribune on Tuesday.

Their study, published in October, used a new method of measuring ocean heat uptake and found the oceans had absorbed 60 more heat than previously thought. Many news outlets relayed the findings, but independent scientist Nic Lewis quickly found problems with the study.

Keeling, a scientist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, owned up to the mistake and thanked Lewis for finding it. Keeling and his co-authors submitted a correction to the journal Nature.

“We’re grateful to have it be pointed out quickly so that we could correct it quickly,” Keeling said.

In a statement posted online Friday, Keeling said “the combined effect of these two corrections to have a small impact on our calculations of overall heat uptake.” However, Keeling said the errors mean there are “larger margins of error” than they initially thought.

So, while Keeling said they still found there’s more warming than previously thought, there’s too much uncertainty to support their paper’s central conclusion that oceans absorbed 60 percent more heat than current estimates show.

“Our error margins are too big now to really weigh in on the precise amount of warming that’s going on in the ocean,” Keeling told The Union Tribune. “We really muffed the error margins.”

Keeling and his co-authors used the study to debut a new way of estimating ocean heat uptake by measuring the volume of carbon dioxide and oxygen in the atmosphere. Scientists are still intrigued by this method, but all the kinks need to be worked out.

“So far as I can see, their method vastly underestimates the uncertainty,” Lewis told The Washington Post in an interview Tuesday, “as well as biasing up significantly, nearly 30 percent, the central estimate.”

Lewis pointed out the errors in Keeling’s study in a blog post published Nov. 6 on climate scientist Judith Curry’s website. Lewis wrote that “[j]ust a few hours of analysis and calculations … was sufficient to uncover apparently serious (but surely inadvertent) errors in the underlying calculations.”

Lewis is an ardent critic of climate scientists’ over-reliance on climate models, which he says predict too much warming. Lewis and Curry published a study earlier in 2018 that found climate models overestimated global warming by as much as 45 percent.

Lewis’s corrections were quickly confirmed by University of Colorado professor Roger Pielke Jr. Pielke called Keeling’s acceptance and willingness to correct the mistakes a “lesson in graciousness.”



“Unfortunately, we made mistakes here,” Keeling told WaPo. “I think the main lesson is that you work as fast as you can to fix mistakes when you find them.”
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Old 11-17-2018, 10:22 AM   #76
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Originally Posted by HonestChieffan View Post
You cant say that with a straight face. If you can you shold run for office. No greater lie can be told.

Adding the govt incentives to the costs of high price energy from windfarms and forcing power generation to move to non coal higher cost fuels , bio diesel, ethanol and really putting cost in place your statement is pure bulllshit. And the costs of regulations? And higher cost fotr cars and trucks for emissions? And on and on.

Address climate change and prove the efforts to date are revenue neutral with costs before government entered the picture with their pet climate change crap.

This highlights much of the problem selling Climate Change. People in many cases agree we have ongoing climate change. The breakdown comes in the application of fixes that are poorly developed, expensive , and unproven. Then along comes a claim like yours and your cred is shot in the ass. No one will read another pro climate change thing you put forward without remembering the time you tried to say that attempts to address climate change does not equate to higher energy costs...

Climate change is real. The fixes are sold by charletans seeking gold and passionate believers who will tell any tale to advance a questionable cause
It's amazing how much conservatives rail on alternative energy subsidies yet sidestep that big oil is one of the most influential lobbies in the US. To the tune of ~$35B in incentives & corporate welfaree. That's not even counting the potentially trillions in indirect subsidies. Alternative energy is a mouse fart compared to what big oil gets. I agree we don't necessarily need all the regulations demanding energy efficiency... But it's naive to think those hurdles even dent the amount of incentives oil companies receive from govt.

If you want fiscal responsibility, then shouldn't the better solution be for govt to get out of oil? Allow for a freer market with fair competition. Where alternative energy can invest in capital with as much ease as oil without govt significantly tilting the scales. Where innovators can try new things without regulatory obstacles. And if the govt is investing in public infrastructure like buses, why not invest in energy efficient vehicles instead? None of those things will change your ability to do things. It may increase your gas price, but that's the price of reducing govt subsidies which is worth it, right?

Ultimately, the scales will tilt. Europe & China is already taking the lead on replacing public vehicles with energy efficient ones. Uber & Lyft will dramatically increase availability of battery car infrastructure, which is by far the biggest hurdle to adoption. Infrastructure will create demand which will create more organic supply, which means less need for incentives. You can't help but wonder how much further along we'd be on this journey if not for the expensive effort to kill innovation for decades upon decades.
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Old 11-17-2018, 10:51 AM   #77
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Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501 View Post
It's amazing how much conservatives rail on alternative energy subsidies yet sidestep that big oil is one of the most influential lobbies in the US. To the tune of ~$35B in incentives & corporate welfaree. That's not even counting the potentially trillions in indirect subsidies. Alternative energy is a mouse fart compared to what big oil gets. I agree we don't necessarily need all the regulations demanding energy efficiency... But it's naive to think those hurdles even dent the amount of incentives oil companies receive from govt.

If you want fiscal responsibility, then shouldn't the better solution be for govt to get out of oil? Allow for a freer market with fair competition. Where alternative energy can invest in capital with as much ease as oil without govt significantly tilting the scales. Where innovators can try new things without regulatory obstacles. And if the govt is investing in public infrastructure like buses, why not invest in energy efficient vehicles instead? None of those things will change your ability to do things. It may increase your gas price, but that's the price of reducing govt subsidies which is worth it, right?

Ultimately, the scales will tilt. Europe & China is already taking the lead on replacing public vehicles with energy efficient ones. Uber & Lyft will dramatically increase availability of battery car infrastructure, which is by far the biggest hurdle to adoption. Infrastructure will create demand which will create more organic supply, which means less need for incentives. You can't help but wonder how much further along we'd be on this journey if not for the expensive effort to kill innovation for decades upon decades.

well there you go again
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Old 11-17-2018, 04:10 PM   #78
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What the hell are you talking about? In what way would being more energy efficient lower your standard of living?
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Energy expensive is what you mean. Renewables aren't ready to compete on a level playing field with fossil fuels. Heard on the radio today that CO (my state) is enacting regs to force vehicles to be more energy efficient. Will only add another $2100+ to the price of a new vehicle. My parents generation could function as a 1 worker family and raise a family and succeed. By not having kids I have been able to make it as a 1 worker family. Today to raise a family takes 2 incomes and less parenting which is helping continue our country's trip towards the shitter. AND YES I'm old-fashioned that way. I believe that 2 parent families with time to spend raising their kids creates better kids that turn into better adults which turn into a better country as opposed to the current state where the opposite is happening.
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Old 11-17-2018, 06:35 PM   #79
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Energy expensive is what you mean. Renewables aren't ready to compete on a level playing field with fossil fuels. Heard on the radio today that CO (my state) is enacting regs to force vehicles to be more energy efficient. Will only add another $2100+ to the price of a new vehicle. My parents generation could function as a 1 worker family and raise a family and succeed. By not having kids I have been able to make it as a 1 worker family. Today to raise a family takes 2 incomes and less parenting which is helping continue our country's trip towards the shitter. AND YES I'm old-fashioned that way. I believe that 2 parent families with time to spend raising their kids creates better kids that turn into better adults which turn into a better country as opposed to the current state where the opposite is happening.
So true!
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Old 11-17-2018, 08:07 PM   #80
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Like forcing consumers to buy LED/fluorescent light bulbs at $8 each. The price has finally come down however when I'm in any major city at night and see all of the lights on in the office buildings with no one at home, it makes me wonder who is actually using all of the energy. I have not seen any reduction in my electric bill that I can relate to using these new "efficient" bulbs.

While the fascist Left wants you to believe that those “BULBS” are helping save the planet - you are absolutely correct in your statement that there is no reduction in utilities cost per customer. Hell, you actually end up paying MORE if you have solar installed on your home.

Kind of like the grocery store conundrum that the customer does nearly all the work in the store - yet prices continually rise. Same at the gas pump. Used to get full service, now, YOU do all the work and the prices rise......perfect sense.
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Old 11-17-2018, 08:27 PM   #81
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Originally Posted by HonestChieffan View Post
You cant say that with a straight face. If you can you shold run for office. No greater lie can be told.

Adding the govt incentives to the costs of high price energy from windfarms and forcing power generation to move to non coal higher cost fuels , bio diesel, ethanol and really putting cost in place your statement is pure bulllshit. And the costs of regulations? And higher cost fotr cars and trucks for emissions? And on and on.

Address climate change and prove the efforts to date are revenue neutral with costs before government entered the picture with their pet climate change crap.

This highlights much of the problem selling Climate Change. People in many cases agree we have ongoing climate change. The breakdown comes in the application of fixes that are poorly developed, expensive , and unproven. Then along comes a claim like yours and your cred is shot in the ass. No one will read another pro climate change thing you put forward without remembering the time you tried to say that attempts to address climate change does not equate to higher energy costs...

Climate change is real. The fixes are sold by charletans seeking gold and passionate believers who will tell any tale to advance a questionable cause
That's false. Wind and solar energy production is now cheaper than coal generated electric, even without any federal subsidies:

Quote:
Wind and solar are now cheaper than virtually anyone predicted, and renewable technologies have reached an inflection point: Rapid cost declines made renewable energy the cheapest available sources of new electricity, even without subsidies, in 2017. In many locations across America, building new wind energy projects is cheaper than running existing coal-fired power plants.

https://www.utilitydive.com/news/win...rs-rem/519671/
Sorry, but it's the truth. Renewable is the future. It's going to continue whether you believe in it or not.
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Old 11-17-2018, 09:11 PM   #82
HonestChieffan HonestChieffan is offline
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That's false. Wind and solar energy production is now cheaper than coal generated electric, even without any federal subsidies:



Sorry, but it's the truth. Renewable is the future. It's going to continue whether you believe in it or not.
Indeed. At a huge cost. But you dont care to address that. Like Obama said wecwill drive costs up.
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Old 11-17-2018, 09:24 PM   #83
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Originally Posted by HonestChieffan View Post
Indeed. At a huge cost. But you dont care to address that. Like Obama said wecwill drive costs up.
You keep talking about these mythical huge costs. Meanwhile....

Quote:
Renewables were the most-added source of new energy generation in 2017 – the 11 gigawatts (GW) of new wind and utility-scale solar capacity surpassed even natural gas – marking the fourth consecutive year renewables made up more than half of total U.S. generation additions.

This impressive growth is driving investment and creating jobs, especially in rural areas where economic opportunity can be hard to find. The U.S. Department of Labor recently underscored this job-creation potential by reporting that solar photovoltaic installers and wind turbine service technicians are the nation’s two fastest growing occupations.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/energyi...-s-investment/
The market is implementing it just fine. It will continue to happen as well. Keep doubting....
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Old 11-17-2018, 09:31 PM   #84
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We can't even get accurate weekly weather reports.

Yet we're supposed to trust these guys
Go eat (more) lead paint chips.
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Old 11-17-2018, 09:39 PM   #85
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Originally Posted by crayzkirk View Post
Like forcing consumers to buy LED/fluorescent light bulbs at $8 each. The price has finally come down however when I'm in any major city at night and see all of the lights on in the office buildings with no one at home, it makes me wonder who is actually using all of the energy. I have not seen any reduction in my electric bill that I can relate to using these new "efficient" bulbs.
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Originally Posted by Randallflagg View Post
While the fascist Left wants you to believe that those “BULBS” are helping save the planet - you are absolutely correct in your statement that there is no reduction in utilities cost per customer. Hell, you actually end up paying MORE if you have solar installed on your home.

Kind of like the grocery store conundrum that the customer does nearly all the work in the store - yet prices continually rise. Same at the gas pump. Used to get full service, now, YOU do all the work and the prices rise......perfect sense.
FYI... nobody is forcing consumers to buy LED bulbs. What you dopes are blaming on the fascist Left is actually the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. Which was signed by George Bush().
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Old 11-17-2018, 10:06 PM   #86
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FYI... nobody is forcing consumers to buy LED bulbs. What you dopes are blaming on the fascist Left is actually the the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. Which was signed by George Bush().
Your post is misleading, at best. I'll let articles like these do the talking.

https://www.mercurynews.com/2017/12/...t-light-bulbs/

https://www.bdcnetwork.com/californi...nt-light-bulbs

https://www.buildinggreen.com/newsbr...ally-bans-bulb
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Old 11-17-2018, 10:12 PM   #87
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It's not misleading in the slightest. Even California consumers are still free to buy and use incandescent bulbs all they want. Your articles support that.
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Old 11-17-2018, 10:38 PM   #88
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The foundation of science is skepticism.

How do you know it’s accurate? It’s based on models, so there will always be a chance of error.

This goes for any science that tries to claim accuracy for anything in the far past or predicts the future. They really don’t know, they can only theorize based on man-created models.


I don’t recall saying scientists were hopping on jets, BTW.

Once again, I agree with you. I think we need to strive to clean things up as much as possible because it’s the right thing to do and it’s something we have control of.

But, I will always question accuracy based on models, that’s just who I am.
You should look into exactly how they are making those measurements. They aren't using computer models to measure the climate hundreds of thousands of years ago. Models are only used for very recent data and projecting trends into the future.

There's a good explanation for how they determine very old climates. Here's a good place to start if you're interested: https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2616/c...-to-ice-cores/
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Old 11-17-2018, 11:09 PM   #89
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well there you go again
There I go again with what?

You bitch about govt subsidies to alternative energy. Are you seriously going to suggest oil companies don't receive significantly more government favoritism? Or is your head buried directly in the sand on this one.
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Old 11-17-2018, 11:28 PM   #90
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Indeed. At a huge cost. But you dont care to address that. Like Obama said wecwill drive costs up.
And how much capital does it cost for oil exploration. But nah, it's OK for that massive capital investment to go virtually tax free.
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