2012 Kansas City Royals Repository Thread

[alnorth]

2012 Slogan: Our Time

A better, more accurate 2012 Slogan: It is Finally Next Year
(from Great Expectations)

An alternative slogan if you don't like that one: Someone has to win this crappy division
(from alnorth)

With the beginning of a new year, it is time for the 2012 version of the Royals Repository Thread. We've got Hosmer, we've got a 2011-dominating Gordon, we've got Moose, we've got hopefully a killer bullpen, we've got a stereotypical slow slugging DH, we've got easily one of the best defensive shortstops in the AL, we've got a promising catcher in Salvador Perez. Hell, we've got offense and promising prospects galore.

We do not have starting pitching.

Oh yeah, we've also got this:



Get ready for, (as of January 2012 anyway), one of the most confusing puzzles of a baseball season in recent Royals history. Will they suck? Maybe, I don't know. Will we be given a year of 0.500 baseball? Possibly, I don't know. Will they win the division and go to the playoffs for the first time in 27 years? For the first time in a long time, it could happen, I don't know. 92 losses, 92 wins, or anything in between would not surprise a lot of us.

Everything goes here except Gameday threads and really big news. If a giant story breaks, the Royals achieve some awesome milestone, or we sign/lose a highly significant player/coach/mascot/whatever, then it might also deserve its own thread. This being Chiefs Planet, please do not clutter the board with new threads about trivial Royals news or you will only annoy those who come here for just Chiefs football. If you aren't sure and its not a Gameday thread, it goes here.

What sort of stuff often goes here? SPchief explained it well, so I'll just copy that:

If you locate something of interest.. ANYTHING.. deals on apparel, best ways in/out of the stadium, giveaways, great stories from this season or from seasons gone by, rumors, trades, anything.... feel free to post it here.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by JASONSAUTO

I stand by what I said. Monty will WILL be our two, maybe our three. Odireazy greinke monty duffy.

Or odoreazy monty duffy
Posted via Mobile Device

Bold statement, and one you're unique in. If you're right, definite bragging rights.

All indications I've seen are that Odorizzi lags behind a bit in pure "stuff" but has the makings of an excellent No. 2/3 starter.

Montgomery, near as I can tell, has Cole Hamels-like upside. That would be pretty damn sweet.

[SAUTO]

Just remember who said it...


Deez (iirc) got me looking at meyers more but I'm convinced.
Posted via Mobile Device

[duncan_idaho]

Thoughts on the Tigers...

This move probably pays off in spades this season... but some concerns:

1) In 2013, what are they going to do with Martinez? If Cabrera plays 3B everyday, he'll be atrocious. Fielder is below-average at 1B. Avila and Peralta are OK at C and SS, respectively (with Peralta trending to below-average). Jackson is above-average in center. Boesch is bad in RF and Raburn might be the worst LF in baseball (since the only one worse, Delmon Young, is the Tigers' DH).

Good luck trying to trade a 1B/DH on the wrong side of 30 coming back from a major knee injury and with diminishing power.

2) The rotation. History shows us Verlander will probably take a step back in 2012 due to workload. But beyond him? I love Max Scherzer, but he's probably never more than an OK No. 3. Fister was incredibly lucky last year. Porcello is still baffling (results don't match what the eye shows). Can I also point out that Scherzer, Fister and Porcello are all extreme groundball pitchers. You know when groundball pitchers struggle? When their defense blows giant chunks. Hmm...

3) The lineup, beyond Cabrera and Fielder, is not that great. Austin Jackson and Ramon Santiago are black holes offensively. Raburn is a below-average offensive LF. Boesch is an average offensive RF. Avila is going to regress (.366 BABIP vs. 21% LD rate in 2011 tells me so).

They are the front runners in 2012, definitely, but this is a team that has some major flaws. It has $80 million/year tied up in four players, one of whom is a pitcher and the other three being 1B/DH types who have no value beyond their bat.

[eazyb81]

After sleeping on it........yep, we're still ****ed.

Is he overpaid? Sure.

But who cares? It's just money.

Baseball doesn't have a salary cap, and Mike Illitich apparently doesn't give a **** if he profits a dime. He just wants to win. You have to admire it when he doesn't have the revenue of a city like NY or LA behind him.

Yes his contract will look ugly towards the end as he's pushing 350 pounds, but our window for contention will likely be over by then. We have 5-6 years coming up where we will have a lot of young, cost-controlled talent. They begin to hit free agency in 2016/2017, and we won't be able to keep most of them.

Detroit has a core Verlander, Scherzer, Porcello, M-Cab, and Fielder for the next few years. To compete with that, we will need everything to go right: a couple ace-level pitchers develop and Hosmer/Myers/Moose become elite, All Star-level position players.

This sucks.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by eazyb81

After sleeping on it........yep, we're still ****ed.

Is he overpaid? Sure.

But who cares? It's just money.

Baseball doesn't have a salary cap, and Mike Illitich apparently doesn't give a **** if he profits a dime. He just wants to win. You have to admire it when he doesn't have the revenue of a city like NY or LA behind him.

Yes his contract will look ugly towards the end as he's pushing 350 pounds, but our window for contention will likely be over by then. We have 5-6 years coming up where we will have a lot of young, cost-controlled talent. They begin to hit free agency in 2016/2017, and we won't be able to keep most of them.

Detroit has a core Verlander, Scherzer, Porcello, M-Cab, and Fielder for the next few years. To compete with that, we will need everything to go right: a couple ace-level pitchers develop and Hosmer/Myers/Moose become elite, All Star-level position players.

This sucks.

Yeah, the Royals are probably ****ed for 2012.

It will be interesting to see what they get for Victor Martinez after this season. He's got two seasons left on a huge deal at ages 34 and 35, coming back from a severe knee injury that limits one of the things that makes him most valuable (the ability to play catcher).

Rick Porcello? Not scared. Here's a guy who, for his career, averages fewer than 5K/9 with a normal walk rate (2.4 BB/9). That's why he gets lit up (Career ERA around 4.5).

Max Scherzer is one of my favorite major league players because of the Mizzou connection, but he is not much more than a No. 3 pitcher (and his strikeout and walk rates are trending the wrong way).

Doug Fister? Please. Guy sucked in the pitcher's haven in Seattle, with a great defense behind him. Detroit is a friendlier ballpark for hitters, and his defense is going to be a liability. Dude's luck (see his time with Detroit last season) won't last forever.

Basically, the Tigers farm system is Jacob Turner. Other than him, no impact players getting ready on the farm.

So yeah, the Tigers are loaded up for this year. They're going to have:

1) A great No. 1 starter
2) A great 3-4 combo

For the next half-dozen years. But this team also has some severe flaws, and with $80 million tied up in four players for 2013 and 2014 and only one real bargaining chip in the minors, they're going to have a hard time plugging them.

[eazyb81]

duncan I admire the effort but you basically argued the bear case for each individual player. Scherzer and Porcello could also continue to improve, just like we are expecting our prospects to do. It is unreasonable to assume all the Tigers will deteriorate and all the Royals will get better.

And your last point about money appears moot. Mike Illitch has a net worth of $2 billion and apparently is willing to spend for a winner. There's nothing stopping him from spending another $100 million on payroll in the coming years if he has the money.

A lot of the optimism about KC's chances in the coming years was due to the assumption that Chicago and Detroit would not spend like NYY or Boston; if they do, then that changes things because Glass will never spend anywhere close to that.

[Saul Good]

Originally Posted by mnchiefsguy

Overpaid is overpaid.

There is no such thing as overpaid in baseball unless the player blocks you from signing talent around him. This team was already complete, and they paid Fielder anyway.

They weren't trying to squeeze him into a predetermined team salary maximum, so its just a billionaire's money. If the Tigers get the same guy that played in Milwaukee, he's earned his money.

[duncan_idaho]

Originally Posted by eazyb81

duncan I admire the effort but you basically argued the bear case for each individual player. Scherzer and Porcello could also continue to improve, just like we are expecting our prospects to do. It is unreasonable to assume all the Tigers will deteriorate and all the Royals will get better.

And your last point about money appears moot. Mike Illitch has a net worth of $2 billion and apparently is willing to spend for a winner. There's nothing stopping him from spending another $100 million on payroll in the coming years if he has the money.

A lot of the optimism about KC's chances in the coming years was due to the assumption that Chicago and Detroit would not spend like NYY or Boston; if they do, then that changes things because Glass will never spend anywhere close to that.

Fair enough. Was just trying to provide a counterpoint to "oh, we're ****ed. Which was my first thought, too."

I don't think my comments on Porcello were "Bear market" comments. The guy has pitched three full major leagues seasons and has never struck out more than 5.1 batters per nine. It is EXTREMELY difficult to jump up that type of record. Without a sharp increase in K rate or a complete elimination of walks, he's going to be a completely luck- and fielding-dependent pitcher on a team with terrible defense.

Scherzer and Fister, that's fair. Max is, as I said, one of my favorite players (stems from watching him so much at Mizzou and being part of "Scherzer's flotilla). He definitely has the talent/stuff to improve, but he's got a pretty established record that seems to define what he is. Fister had a crazy-low BABIP in his stint as a Tiger, but he did have a sharp increase in K rate with Detroit. So maybe they found a mechanical thing or had him emphasize a certain pitch more to create that bump.

Definitely not bear market to say their farm system sucks beyond Jacob Turner (who is pretty legit).

They're going to have to spend their way past some of these holes in the coming years, and you're right that Ilitch will spend. But how much money is he willing to lose on the Tigers? Reports are he lost $20 million last year, and he's adding $30 million in salary, at least (Scherzer and Verlander both get big bumps this year).

Like I said. They're the favorites this year, for sure. But the next few years will be interesting (especially with watching them try to unload Victor Martinez or play Cabrera at 3B or LF).

[Saul Good]

I also disagree with this 5-6 year window thing people keep mentioning. The rich get richer in baseball, but "rich" isn't always about money. If we can pick out the right players to sign long term while dealing other veterans for prospects, there is no reason that we can't keep plugging in talent to replace talent.

The Grienke trade looks like it made us a better team in the long run. If we can make similar moves like that when we have enough talent in the majors to compete, I like our long term prospects.

[kcchiefsus]

Originally Posted by Saul Good

I also disagree with this 5-6 year window thing people keep mentioning. The rich get richer in baseball, but "rich" isn't always about money. If we can pick out the right players to sign long term while dealing other veterans for prospects, there is no reason that we can't keep plugging in talent to replace talent.

The Grienke trade looks like it made us a better team in the long run. If we can make similar moves like that when we have enough talent in the majors to compete, I like our long term prospects.

This. Even with all of the talent that has come up we still have a too 10 system in the minors. Once current guys move on we will have players like Starling, Cuthbert, Myers, etc. to replace them. We have a better outfield than Detroit and I expect our infield to improve enough by next season to at least be competitve with Detroit. The issue then comes down to pitching. It will be hard to get somebody comparable to Verlander, but I am not impressed with the pitchers after him. If we can have better pitching 2-5 and in the bullpen we will have the advantage IMO.

[Saul Good]

Verlander's got a lot of miles on him, too.

[tk13]

Pitching is always the great equalizer. It's why Tampa continues to compete in a division where they don't have the financial power of the other teams. Even in a perfect world where Glass was insane with his money, he probably couldn't compete with Ilitch. Plus while its not quite Chicago, Detroit is still a much bigger market than KC and really the rest of the teams in the division. It's funny because you see people react to this signing like it was Pittsburgh or Cleveland that signed him... but that's not really the case.
Posted via Mobile Device

[Dr. Johnny Fever]

I really don't care what the Tigers do to be honest. Yes Fielder makes a real good team even better and they are certainly the favorites to win the division this year... maybe for a while. I care more about what WE do to improve.

But here's my take fwiw...

We weren't going to be better than Detroit yet this year anyway in all likelyhood. I'm as excited as anymore and moreso than many folks about the direction we're finally heading, however I do believe a lot of folks are getting ahead of themselves with expectations right now. We are INCREDIBLY young. 2 of our core starters this year have no more than a couple months of big league experience... Perez and Giavotella. 2 others have about half a season under their belts... Hosmer and Moustakas. Our new CFer is basically in that same boat. We have still-young pitching throughout part of the rotation and a bullpen full of puppies.

2012 is a "continuing to build" year in my estimation. I don't think it's realistic to expect a team this young to win a division just yet... even in the weak AL Central. What I want and hope to see is progress... and I do mean real progress towards becoming a championship caliber team... and I think (hope) we'll see that. But these guys... as talented as they are, are going to need a little more seasoning imo before we can start getting serious about the playoffs.

As much talent as we brought up and as well as we played late we still finished what... 20 games under .500? It's a long road back to glory in baseball. Give it some time and we should get there. This season should be a real nice building block toward what we hope to accomplish but I think while we get excited for the first time in years we need to be realistic about what to expect as well. Don't get so far ahead of ourselves that close to .500 or being .500 looks like a disappointment. That would be serious progress.

[duncan_idaho]

A few things that give me a little glimmer of hope for this year, too:

1) Verlander's workload/crazy 2011. It's unlikely he matches that season. (Same with Fister, honestly). Would need Scherzer to ratchet up a bit to make up for it (which is entirely possible).

2) Detroit's lucky 2011. The Tigers phythag suggest they won six more games than they should have, by the numbers (while the Royals' suggest they should have won seven more). Call it the 03 Royals effect.

3) Detroit's bullpen. Valverde was awfully shaky last year, but somehow managed to go 49/49 despite working into and out of jams in at least 1/3 of his save opportunities. More blown saves from this bullpen really aren't a stretch...

[RockChalk]

Originally Posted by Shogun

Pretty excited. Plus theres more guys still coming up.

Just went from 6 to midnight.

Seriously though, watching this video makes me happy that it's so close. Yet I'm sad, because it's not close enough. Let's get this started. Our Time!