AFC Playoff Picture - 4 games left

[Mile High Mania]

Ok, so I know that most care very little about this, but it is football. You're going to watch the season end and the playoffs, so I'm curious as to your thoughts on how things might play out.

After week 13, we have the following:

#1 - Texans (11-1)
#2 - Patriots (9-3)
#3 - Ravens (9-3)
#4 - Broncos (9-3)
#5 - Colts (8-4)
#6 - Steelers (7-5)

Looking to get in are the Bengals at 7-5, then a gaggle of spares like the Jets are clinging to unrealistic chances of advancing.

And, thanks to the Steelers defeating the Ravens, we have a 3-way tie at 9-3, thus moving the Patriots into the #2 seed for now.

Texans and Patriots are set up to get the bye if the playoffs ended today, with the Steelers palying at Baltimore and the Colts playing at Denver.

Remaining Schedules:

Texans -
@ Patriots
Colts
Vikings (?)
@ Colts

Patriots -
Texans
49ers
@ Jaguars
Dolpins

Ravens -
@ Redskins
Broncos
Giants
@ Bengals

Broncos -
@ Raiders
@ Ravens
Browns
Chiefs

Colts -
Titans
@ Texans
@ Chiefs
Texans

Steelers -
Chargers
@ Cowboys
Bengals
Browns

Bengals -
Cowboys
@ Eagles
@ Steelers
Ravens

I listed the Cowboys as tough because honestly you just don't know with that damn team, they have the firepower, but are far from dominant.

The Bengals have a hell of a stretch to get into that top 6 right now, especially if they lose to the Steelers.

The Ravens and Texans, to me, have the toughest schedules at this point. Patriots have 2 tough games and really, the Broncos just have the Ravens. Yes, Oakland on their turf could be a tough one, but they seem pretty deflated.

I think it will be interesting to watch how the seeds shuffle, if at all. Denver needs to go 3-1, worst case if they plan to move up from #4 and into the top 2. Texans and Patriots need to stumble against their remaining teams - and a lot rides on the Colts/Texans as they play twice.

Either way, I think Denver can move into #3 fairly easily if they can defeat the Ravens, but they'll need some help to leap into #2 since NE has the H2H tiebreaker.

I don't think HOU will lose hold of the #1 seed though, not with 4 left and a 2 game lead.

Your thoughts? (aside from "do not care")

[Amnorix]

Originally Posted by Mile High Mania

I definitely welcome another matchup with the Patriots and the Texans this post season.

NE has an 8-1 conf record, while DEN is 6-2. Both are undefeated within their divisions, both have only 1 home loss. The H2H is key right now.

I like Denver's chances with their 4 remaining. NE has a tougher final 4 than Denver, but we'll see - this is where we find out what teams are made of as they prepare to enter the playoffs. Texans and 49ers need to drop NE, Ravens need to drop 2 while Denver goes 3-1 at worst and they get the #2 seed.

I really do find it hard to believe the Pats will lose back to back games at home. I'm not sure that's even happened in the Brady/Belichick era like, ever...

Losing Gronk definitely hurts alot against those good defenses though, no question. Pats are largely a Hernandez/Welker team now, and that's not really good enough. We learned that Moss/Welker couldn't win it all, though they came close, obviously. Now we have a running game, but the defense is very meh.

Fair to say that if they do lose two games out of four, then they won't deserve one of the top few seeds anyway.

[Mile High Mania]

Originally Posted by Amnorix

I really do find it hard to believe the Pats will lose back to back games at home. I'm not sure that's even happened in the Brady/Belichick era like, ever...

Losing Gronk definitely hurts alot against those good defenses though, no question. Pats are largely a Hernandez/Welker team now, and that's not really good enough. We learned that Moss/Welker couldn't win it all, though they came close, obviously. Now we have a running game, but the defense is very meh.

Fair to say that if they do lose two games out of four, then they won't deserve one of the top few seeds anyway.

Sure, it's asking a lot - but these are 2 very tough and very good teams with HOU and SF. So, it won't be easy wins for NE by any means. Win 1 of them and it's a moot point really, but I don't think they win both.

[RealSNR]

Originally Posted by KC Tattoo

I hate it what Bitchler did this weekend. I feel robbed as a fan that as a fan I have the right to hate the GM of our team for bringing us crap. I'm not letting that coward take away my feelings toward what is best for the team.

It's also bullshit it took a murder suicide for this team to play like a team. Altho I am proud of the guys and have most sympathy for them and the coaches for making the best of the situation and my heart is with them.

I can still hate Scott Pioli he didn't do anything, I just feel bad for him to have to witness what he saw in the parking lot. Life goes on.

Y U NO HATE HIM 4 TAKING LIF FRUM A HOOMAN? /all the n00bs

[Jimmy the Greek]

It's amazing going through a thread how someone always has to mess it up with bs

[Rain Man]

Originally Posted by Amnorix

I really do find it hard to believe the Pats will lose back to back games at home. I'm not sure that's even happened in the Brady/Belichick era like, ever...

I remember when Arrowhead used to be that way. I think I was in my 30s.

[Mile High Mania]

I was looking back on the first 5 games for Denver and man... they let a few games get away too early. Losing @ NE and @ ATL isn't horrible, but the way the played in the 2nd and 3rd quarters was not great, plus Manning throwing 3 INTs so early against ATL - just not good. They lost to HOU in Denver - and while they rallied in all 3, it just wasn't enough.

I do like the way both the offense and defense are playing now compared to the first 5 games. NE is the last team to beat Denver and when you look at the 3 losses, those teams are a combined 31-5 ... that's just nasty.

Denver scored 21, 24 and 21 in those losses, but they gave up too many points. And, I think they've gone a long way towards improving on defense. Denver has scored 30+ points in 8 of their games... it's all about the defense continuing to improve.

Denver needs to go 4-0 down this stretch and they definitely need to defeat Baltimore in their house to prove they're not just riding the easier part of their schedule to wins. The Tampa win was a solid one as they really clamped down on their run game, which I definitely did not expect.

[007]

What we need is the Texans to lose a game and the Broncos to keep winning so they won't be resting players the last week of the season.

[Mile High Mania]

Originally Posted by Guru

What we need is the Texans to lose a game and the Broncos to keep winning so they won't be resting players the last week of the season.

You shouldn't be worried so much about the Texans. It's actually NE and BAL... Denver can surpass them more easily than Houston. Denver needs to defeat Baltimore and at worst finish with the best record there, but they need to see NE lose 2 games.

[MahiMike]

Hate to say it but it looks like the Patriots are gonna win it all. Tom Brady with a running game isn't fair.

[Amnorix]

Originally Posted by Rain Man

I remember when Arrowhead used to be that way. I think I was in my 30s.

It's too bad the Patriots can't get an Arrowhead-like crowd behind them at Gillette. Call it the Razor if you want, but it's because of Brady/Belichick and has very little to do with the fans. It's really too bad they can't/don't generate more noise.

[Amnorix]

Originally Posted by Mile High Mania

Sure, it's asking a lot - but these are 2 very tough and very good teams with HOU and SF. So, it won't be easy wins for NE by any means. Win 1 of them and it's a moot point really, but I don't think they win both.

Hard to see winning both, I agree, but I'm keeping my fingers crossed. If Pats win out then I'm pretty confident we at least get the 2nd seed.

[keg in kc]

I don't really care what happens with the other games, but I really, really want a Colts/Broncos game.

[007]

Originally Posted by Mile High Mania

You shouldn't be worried so much about the Texans. It's actually NE and BAL... Denver can surpass them more easily than Houston. Denver needs to defeat Baltimore and at worst finish with the best record there, but they need to see NE lose 2 games.

All I care about is Denver having something to play for on the last week of the season. I don't want them resting the starters against the Chiefs.

[Deberg_1990]

Originally Posted by MahiMike

Hate to say it but it looks like the Patriots are gonna win it all. Tom Brady with a running game isn't fair.

Who knows? I think one of the great mysteries/unknowns is we will finally get to see what Matt Schaub is made of. Is he a true franchise QB or not? I dont think hes ever started one playoff game.

[Mile High Mania]

Originally Posted by MahiMike

Hate to say it but it looks like the Patriots are gonna win it all. Tom Brady with a running game isn't fair.

By no means are they in the driver's seat at this point. Houston has a hell of a team and will give NE all they want and more. I only hope the 49ers kick it up a notch compared to some recent efforts.