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Old 11-15-2018, 07:59 AM  
HonestChieffan HonestChieffan is offline
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OOPS....another Climate Change Lie Correction

The science is settled? But it's the math that's hard?



The scientists behind a headline-grabbing global warming study did something that seems all too rare these days — they admitted to making mistakes and thanked the researcher, a global warming skeptic, who pointed them out.

“When we were confronted with his insight it became immediately clear there was an issue there,” study co-author Ralph Keeling told The San Diego Union-Tribune on Tuesday.

Their study, published in October, used a new method of measuring ocean heat uptake and found the oceans had absorbed 60 more heat than previously thought. Many news outlets relayed the findings, but independent scientist Nic Lewis quickly found problems with the study.

Keeling, a scientist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, owned up to the mistake and thanked Lewis for finding it. Keeling and his co-authors submitted a correction to the journal Nature.

“We’re grateful to have it be pointed out quickly so that we could correct it quickly,” Keeling said.

In a statement posted online Friday, Keeling said “the combined effect of these two corrections to have a small impact on our calculations of overall heat uptake.” However, Keeling said the errors mean there are “larger margins of error” than they initially thought.

So, while Keeling said they still found there’s more warming than previously thought, there’s too much uncertainty to support their paper’s central conclusion that oceans absorbed 60 percent more heat than current estimates show.

“Our error margins are too big now to really weigh in on the precise amount of warming that’s going on in the ocean,” Keeling told The Union Tribune. “We really muffed the error margins.”

Keeling and his co-authors used the study to debut a new way of estimating ocean heat uptake by measuring the volume of carbon dioxide and oxygen in the atmosphere. Scientists are still intrigued by this method, but all the kinks need to be worked out.

“So far as I can see, their method vastly underestimates the uncertainty,” Lewis told The Washington Post in an interview Tuesday, “as well as biasing up significantly, nearly 30 percent, the central estimate.”

Lewis pointed out the errors in Keeling’s study in a blog post published Nov. 6 on climate scientist Judith Curry’s website. Lewis wrote that “[j]ust a few hours of analysis and calculations … was sufficient to uncover apparently serious (but surely inadvertent) errors in the underlying calculations.”

Lewis is an ardent critic of climate scientists’ over-reliance on climate models, which he says predict too much warming. Lewis and Curry published a study earlier in 2018 that found climate models overestimated global warming by as much as 45 percent.

Lewis’s corrections were quickly confirmed by University of Colorado professor Roger Pielke Jr. Pielke called Keeling’s acceptance and willingness to correct the mistakes a “lesson in graciousness.”



“Unfortunately, we made mistakes here,” Keeling told WaPo. “I think the main lesson is that you work as fast as you can to fix mistakes when you find them.”
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Old 11-18-2018, 12:12 AM   #91
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Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501 View Post
There I go again with what?

You bitch about govt subsidies to alternative energy. Are you seriously going to suggest oil companies don't receive significantly more government favoritism? Or is your head buried directly in the sand on this one.
As iy should be. Oil companies provide what we want.

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Old 11-18-2018, 08:14 AM   #92
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Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501 View Post
And how much capital does it cost for oil exploration. But nah, it's OK for that massive capital investment to go virtually tax free.
Wait. Capital investments are taxable? Im starting to understand your occasional fits. You don’t understand what taxes are paid on. Taxes are paid on profits, income minus expences. Capital investments are on the expence side. Is it now you goal to tax companies for investing in their business expansion as well as tax their income? Government assessing a penalty for expanding the business?

Perhaps a simple understanding of the tax system would help you.

On another note. My objection to government investing tax dollars in solar farms after government mandates that solar farms be built with no regard for any benefit to environmental issues or the lifespan and sustainability of their newest hearthrob solar system has merit. Your consistant ranting about some insidious plan cooked up by big this something in concert with big .gov to crush innovation is humorous. Evil does not look like a lobbyist.
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Old 11-18-2018, 09:45 AM   #93
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Originally Posted by HonestChieffan View Post
Wait. Capital investments are taxable? Im starting to understand your occasional fits. You don’t understand what taxes are paid on. Taxes are paid on profits, income minus expences. Capital investments are on the expence side. Is it now you goal to tax companies for investing in their business expansion as well as tax their income? Government assessing a penalty for expanding the business?

Perhaps a simple understanding of the tax system would help you.

On another note. My objection to government investing tax dollars in solar farms after government mandates that solar farms be built with no regard for any benefit to environmental issues or the lifespan and sustainability of their newest hearthrob solar system has merit. Your consistant ranting about some insidious plan cooked up by big this something in concert with big .gov to crush innovation is humorous. Evil does not look like a lobbyist.
No, it shows what a hypocrite you are. You blast the government for "subsidizing" alternative energy, yet ole` on the point that oil companies get some of the most generous government incentives from tax credits to corporate welfare to crony government contracts to competition-killing regulations maybe of any industry out there. They get a significant amount more govt handouts than clean energy does. And we're talking about doing this for centuries where they received almost exclusive benefit from the govt.

You claim that alternative energy requires too much capital investment. Yet sidestep the idea that oil drilling is EXTREMELY capital intensive and that the government.

I am not arguing for high taxes or subsidies. I am saying if oil companies receive govt benefits, then clean energy should get govt favoritism too. That's called fair competition. You can't complain about clean energy govt favoritism, yet dodge the idea that the fossil fuels you want get significantly more favoritism.
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Old 11-18-2018, 10:18 AM   #94
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Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501 View Post
No, it shows what a hypocrite you are. You blast the government for "subsidizing" alternative energy, yet ole` on the point that oil companies get some of the most generous government incentives from tax credits to corporate welfare to crony government contracts to competition-killing regulations maybe of any industry out there. They get a significant amount more govt handouts than clean energy does. And we're talking about doing this for centuries where they received almost exclusive benefit from the govt.

You claim that alternative energy requires too much capital investment. Yet sidestep the idea that oil drilling is EXTREMELY capital intensive and that the government.

I am not arguing for high taxes or subsidies. I am saying if oil companies receive govt benefits, then clean energy should get govt favoritism too. That's called fair competition. You can't complain about clean energy govt favoritism, yet dodge the idea that the fossil fuels you want get significantly more favoritism.
I never said anything like Alternative energy requires too much cap investment. Are you high?

I dont oppose subsidy if its a good business decision. I oppose stupid decisions. Solyndra is a great example.

You read into things too much and pay scant attention to details. Your rants are fun to watch regardless of merit.
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Old 11-18-2018, 10:23 AM   #95
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Originally Posted by GloryDayz View Post
As iy should be. Oil companies provide what we want.

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I'd guess most people could care less. If clean energy is cheaper or equal in price, lots of people will switch over (I recently did). Nobody will complain that the bus they're riding on is too energy efficient. Nobody will even notice if lots of govt procurement begins to shift to clean energy. A lot of this stuff was already happening and you barely noticed and it hasn't impacted your ability to use fossil fuels.

And sorry to break it to you, but within a decade a huge chunk of oil will be phased out. Businesses want driverless, and driverless wants batteries. People want better laptop and cell phone batteries, and there's an arm race to do that, which will ultimately improve car battery efficiency. The public sector is realizing they can replace the things they used to buy with cleaner energy alternatives. If you think the future is in fossil fuels, you're living in the past.
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Old 11-18-2018, 10:41 AM   #96
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Originally Posted by HonestChieffan View Post
I never said anything like Alternative energy requires too much cap investment. Are you high?

I dont oppose subsidy if its a good business decision. I oppose stupid decisions. Solyndra is a great example.

You read into things too much and pay scant attention to details. Your rants are fun to watch regardless of merit.
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Originally Posted by HonestChieffan View Post
Indeed. At a huge cost. But you dont care to address that. Like Obama said wecwill drive costs up.
Yes you did. Why does a massive cost to renewables bother you, but the massive cost to explore, drill, and refine oil doesn't phase you? Both require huge capital investment. And oil receives significantly better public incentive than renewables after decades of receiving massive capital incentives.

Yes, of course govt ties to any industry will lead to corruption and crony capitalism. Inevitably. But call a spade a spade. Haliburton ring a bell? My point wasn't to subsidize the hell out of renewables. It's to acknowledge that oil companies have received benefit too. If you want fair competition, you either reduce oil benefits, or else stop bitching if renewables are finally starting to get some remotely equal benefit too. I'd rather both oil and renewables both be less influenced by the dirty hands of government. But if you're going to get dirty with one, you can't gripe about the other.
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Old 11-18-2018, 11:27 AM   #97
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Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501 View Post
Yes you did. Why does a massive cost to renewables bother you, but the massive cost to explore, drill, and refine oil doesn't phase you? Both require huge capital investment. And oil receives significantly better public incentive than renewables after decades of receiving massive capital incentives.

Yes, of course govt ties to any industry will lead to corruption and crony capitalism. Inevitably. But call a spade a spade. Haliburton ring a bell? My point wasn't to subsidize the hell out of renewables. It's to acknowledge that oil companies have received benefit too. If you want fair competition, you either reduce oil benefits, or else stop bitching if renewables are finally starting to get some remotely equal benefit too. I'd rather both oil and renewables both be less influenced by the dirty hands of government. But if you're going to get dirty with one, you can't gripe about the other.
who said Oil doesnt get benefits You make shit up then rant about it. Try being rational.
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Old 11-18-2018, 01:28 PM   #98
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It's not misleading in the slightest. Even California consumers are still free to buy and use incandescent bulbs all they want. Your articles support that.
Of course it's misleading. I just gave you the evidence, in writing, as to the way they are going after incandescent bulbs, and the way California has already effectively banned most of them.
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Old 11-18-2018, 04:44 PM   #99
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who said Oil doesnt get benefits You make shit up then rant about it. Try being rational.
Oil gets benefits way beyond renewables. I've never once heard you or most conservatives ever gripe about handouts. Bitching about renewable handouts yet choosing to conveniently never ever talk about oil handouts is the same as pretending it never happened.

So based on what you're saying... Are you ok with reducing renewable subsidies if it means reducing at a significant amount govt benefits to big oil?
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Old 11-18-2018, 04:53 PM   #100
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I think its real.....start there.

I don't think we have a firm grasp on to what extent it is happening.

We have no idea if it will continue or not. Some say it will, others say not. People who predict the future on these things are akin to fortune tellers and Shamans.

We don't really know what is causing it or what will make the trend reverse as it has in the past.

the 97% claim is hokuspokus.

My faith in the scientists rise and fall with the times they make a decree and have to follow up with another correction or embarrassing "Oh shit".

My faith in politicians and government having and clue is zero and my faith that the big money is being made from stupid decrees by governments is very high.

It seems to be a scam, don't you think?

Your God loving ass will never side with scientists.
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Old 11-18-2018, 05:08 PM   #101
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Your God loving ass will never side with scientists.
Oh you ignorant slut.

If you had any clue at all.

One can be a believer, and be a scientist, and be a believer in the awesome good of science.
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Old 11-18-2018, 05:44 PM   #102
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Your God loving ass will never side with scientists.
'science so falsely called'
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Old 11-18-2018, 08:48 PM   #103
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The first piece of evidence that the warming over the past few decades isn’t part of a natural cycle is how fast the change is happening. The biggest temperature swings our planet has experienced in the past million years are the ice ages. Based on a combination of paleoclimate data and models, scientists estimate that when ice ages have ended in the past, it has taken about 5,000 years for the planet to warm between 4 and 7 degrees Celsius. The warming of the past century—0.7 degrees Celsius—is roughly eight times faster than the ice-age-recovery warming on average.

The second reason that scientists think the current warming is not from natural influences is that, over the past century, scientists from all over the world have been collecting data on natural factors that influence climate—things like changes in the Sun’s brightness, major volcanic eruptions, and cycles such as El Niño and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. These observations have failed to show any long-term changes that could fully account for the recent, rapid warming of Earth’s temperature.

Finally, scientists know that carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas and that it is released into the air when coal and other fossil fuels burn. Paleoclimate data show that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are higher than they have been in the past 800,000 years. There is no plausible explanation for why such high levels of carbon dioxide would not cause the planet to warm.
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the former or the latter... the latter being an idiot laughing
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Old 11-18-2018, 08:51 PM   #104
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I, for one, support doing everything we can to make the environment cleaner, waste less, etc.

I am a natural skeptic when it comes to everything. The people that scream “science!” need to sit back and realize just how improbable it is to get accurate data when it comes to hundreds of million of years past. Even 50-100 years ago instruments weren’t near as accurate, nor were they as well calibrated to use the data taken to produce proper models.

Also, don’t point at the common man and tells us we are destroying the environment, then proceed to hop in your private jet to fly home to you mansion.

The hypocrites that screamed the loudest have done the most to set back their “cause”. I think that’s why a LOT of people question it.
You, Sir, are an idiot.
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Old 11-18-2018, 09:02 PM   #105
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The foundation of science is skepticism.

How do you know it’s accurate? It’s based on models, so there will always be a chance of error.

This goes for any science that tries to claim accuracy for anything in the far past or predicts the future. They really don’t know, they can only theorize based on man-created models.

I don’t recall saying scientists were hopping on jets, BTW.

Once again, I agree with you. I think we need to strive to clean things up as much as possible because it’s the right thing to do and it’s something we have control of.

But, I will always question accuracy based on models, that’s just who I am.
Scroll on down to the point where they write of skepticism becoming denial.

https://futurism.com/science-denial-...ism-in-science

You do not know wtf you're talking about, and likely never will.
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