The whole key to the offseason right here

[Chris Meck]

I brought this up in another thread, but I feel like it may warrant it's own.

IF you cut Houston, it costs you $7 million, (5.6 if you wait till June 2 but you kinda can't wait that long to free up the cash)

If you tag and keep Ford, it's going to cost you like $16 million.

So you've got $23 million conservatively wrapped up in one position: RDE.

IF you keep Houston at $21 million, and tag and trade Ford's $16 million,

you have $21 million in that RDE position. PLUS you get the pick for Ford, which will be I think a decent #2 and perhaps a low #1.

With the extra high pick, you draft a RDE somewhere in your 4 picks in the top 64, along with a CB, and a S.

You'll have enough for one, maybe two impact FA's and be set for next year, when you can cut Houston for only $1.5 dead cap.

I think we've been looking at this wrong; it's a net savings to keep HOUSTON and let FORD go. He's also the better all-around player.

[BossChief]

That would leave us with:

Speaks/draft pick
Jones/Hamilton
Nnadi/Williams
Flowers/Kpass

Draft pick/DOD
Hitchens/draft pick
Draft pick/Ray?

Draft pick/Ward
Draft pick/Watts
Thomas/Lucas
McCourtey/Jackson
Fuller

Those draft picks would be

1 first in the 20s
The 29th pick
3 second rounders
1 5th
2 6ths
2 7ths

[Chief Northman]

Originally Posted by Chris Meck

that's fair, but-Ford's tag money comes off as soon as a trade gets done.
He's the most talented pure pass rusher available. he's going to be sought after. I think it more likely that teams are competing to nab him than ignoring and waiting.

You have some cap money early-until you get all your own guys done and draftees signed. They literally have enough money right at the start of FA to sign a Landon Collins; you just have other bills you need to pay so you can't unless there's cap relief elsewhere. You've got plenty of time before those bills are due. You've got $25 million or so right now; you just need a bunch of that before camp. you could sign a couple of guys and wait on some other things, like extending players.

You can shop, talk, and negotiate with players; you don't have to wait for Ford's deal to be done to do anything but sign on the dotted line if it's more than you've got at that moment under the cap.
Again, I think that'll be sooner than later as long as he clear's a team's physical. Hell, if you have questions, a team with cap room can play him on the tag themselves and see if he's worth re-signing next year.

Cutting Houston almost pays for Ford as long as you don't consider the $7
million in dead cap money. It's literally cheaper to pay Houston and tag-and-trade Ford-and if you count NEXT YEAR's cap, it's a LOT cheaper. Which Veach has to take into account.

Keeping Ford and cutting Houston costs $24 million on this year's cap.
Keeping Houston and trading Ford costs $21 million plus whatever pick you get from Ford.

And next year, you can cut Houston for $1.5 million against the cap. Next year, if you re-sign Ford it's going to be more like Houston's $21 million IF HE BALLS OUT. If he doesn't, it was all for naught.

I get what you're saying, I just think it's literally the better fiscal move. And I think the team is better with a well rounded player there.

Here's the other reason.

If the Chiefs are in 'win now" mode, can they afford to let their most dynamic pass rusher go? No draft pick is replacing Ford's production, neither is any free agent. Ford is a premiere SPEED rusher. Houston/Speaks won't get near the pressure as Ford/ANYBODY.

I get the sensibilities $-wise in your proposal as well as getting value out of Ford, but given the team's situation as a Superbowl favourite, I'm not sure you eliminate one of its defensive strengths for a bit of money and "potential".

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by SAUTO

I think ford and a 2nd is way too much for 30 and a 4th.

It very well may be because he's could be worth #12.

That said, if I'm the GM of another team, I'm devaluing Ford significantly for a few reasons if I'm trading for him.
1. He's relatively one-dimensional. Although his backside pursuit against the run was significantly better this season, he's still a liability when run directly at.
2. He's had a back injury history, which seldom go completely away.
3. There's a good class of FA edge rushers and a good class of edge rushers in the draft, plus if KC retains Ford there's a good chance they have to cut Houston who'd be a good signing.

I placed his value at a 2nd and 4th, but again that's being pretty conservative.

[Chief Northman]

Originally Posted by kccrow

It very well may be because he's could be worth #12.

That said, if I'm the GM of another team, I'm devaluing Ford significantly for a few reasons if I'm trading for him.
1. He's relatively one-dimensional. Although his backside pursuit against the run was significantly better this season, he's still a liability when run directly at.
2. He's had a back injury history, which seldom go completely away.
3. There's a good class of FA edge rushers and a good class of edge rushers in the draft, plus if KC retains Ford there's a good chance they have to cut Houston who'd be a good signing.

I placed his value at a 2nd and 4th, but again that's being pretty conservative.

That seems like a fair assessment. I would hope this would be garnered from a bottom 12 picking team (top 12 picks), otherwise that value begins to decrease a bunch.

My money is still on Ford being retained by KC, and Houston cut.

[YontsRBake]

Originally Posted by BossChief

That would leave us with:

Speaks/draft pick
Jones/Hamilton
Nnadi/Williams
Flowers/Kpass

Draft pick/DOD
Hitchens/draft pick
Draft pick/Ray?

Draft pick/Ward
Draft pick/Watts
Thomas/Lucas
McCourtey/Jackson
Fuller

Those draft picks would be

1 first in the 20s
The 29th pick
3 second rounders
1 5th
2 6ths
2 7ths

Flowers is projected for a 5 year $75 million contract (based on the example set by Danielle Hunter I believe) I don't think we can afford that.

One thing I don't see many people talking about that I think should be considered is what about leaving Chris Jones at the SDE spot? Then going to FA or the draft for a DT.

[Chiefshrink]

Shane Ray is soft. Always hurt.

[bigbucks24]

Originally Posted by Chris Meck

uhh, no. Nobody said anything like that. My estimate is a #2 which is pretty reasonable. It's possible you might snag a late #1. Some package of picks to swap might bring something higher. He'll be a hot commodity, injury history or no for teams with cap room.

But nobody's talking about a premium player plus 1, 2, 3 for him, you're being facetious.

I get it that no one is going to pay that for Collins. And yes, I was being facetious. But it was mentioned the 15th or 16th pick in round 1. That has the same value as the Chief's 1st and 2nd this year and their 3rd next year. It actually a little short. To be completely even, you would have to throw in another late pick. My point was that I think a fan base would be outraged if they traded the Chiefs ANY 1st round pick, let alone one in the teens, for a pass rusher that will have to be given a HUGE contract. I just don't see it. How would you feel if the shoe were on the other foot?

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by Chief Northman

Here's the other reason.

If the Chiefs are in 'win now" mode, can they afford to let their most dynamic pass rusher go? No draft pick is replacing Ford's production, neither is any free agent. Ford is a premiere SPEED rusher. Houston/Speaks won't get near the pressure as Ford/ANYBODY.

I get the sensibilities $-wise in your proposal as well as getting value out of Ford, but given the team's situation as a Superbowl favourite, I'm not sure you eliminate one of its defensive strengths for a bit of money and "potential".

BUT I would argue that Houston's much, MUCH better as a run defender, while being just slightly less as a pass rusher. And really, on a per snap basis, you could argue that Houston is just as dynamic a pass rusher (compare sacks, pressures, and QB hits per snap).

Ford's a great speed pass rusher, but that's literally the only part of his game that is above average let alone 'elite'. Houston is a plus player in all areas other than perhaps pass coverage.

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by YontsRBake

One thing I don't see many people talking about that I think should be considered is what about leaving Chris Jones at the SDE spot? Then going to FA or the draft for a DT.

No I think that would be a mistake. his ability to pressure from INSIDE is elite and second only to Aaron Donald. I don't think you want to mess with that.

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by bigbucks24

I get it that no one is going to pay that for Collins. And yes, I was being facetious. But it was mentioned the 15th or 16th pick in round 1. That has the same value as the Chief's 1st and 2nd this year and their 3rd next year. It actually a little short. To be completely even, you would have to throw in another late pick. My point was that I think a fan base would be outraged if they traded the Chiefs ANY 1st round pick, let alone one in the teens, for a pass rusher that will have to be given a HUGE contract. I just don't see it. How would you feel if the shoe were on the other foot?

15th or 16th was mentioned a part of a package trade that would include Ford plus another pick or two.

and I think you UNDERestimate the fact that any drafted edge rusher would be unlikely to match Ford's pass rush production as a rookie. IF you're a team like, say, Green Bay who's window is closing fast, would you rather wait and hope a guy develops or would you take a guy that you know can do it at the NFL level-PROVIDED that your team doctors are convinced the surgery last offseason fixed the back issue?

it's an 'IF' for sure, but if your window is NOW or not at all, it's not as big a risk as a rookie.

I mean, it's just not. If you're Green Bay, and you've got 2 #1's, might you not strongly consider adding 13 sacks for the tag money at #30? Are you really likely to get that production out of that spot while Rodgers is still Rodgers?

I think you'd have to think long and hard about it; particularly if there are other picks in the mix.

I mean, the only reason The Chiefs can't keep Houston AND Ford is that our Defense was #31 and we need to get some players to improve and can't unless we move on from ONE of these guys at least. If I'm Green Bay, I want that production, I need it now, because Rodgers is running out of time.

[dlphg9]

Houston is so much better than Ford and its not close. Im not giving Ford 16 mil guaranteed

[dlphg9]

Trade Ford for Javier Arenas or Brandon Carr or Brandon Flowers

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by dlphg9

Houston is so much better than Ford and its not close. Im not giving Ford 16 mil guaranteed

particularly as a run defender.

I mean, I don't see Ford as a starter on a top ten run defense. All you have to do is run at him.

I literally watched a run play off tackle in the first quarter where the Colts blocked him one on one with a WIDE RECEIVER who cleared him right the **** out of the path of the ball carrier.

Now that's one bad play, it's true. But shit, man. A WIDE RECEIVER. I mean, damn.

Houston as a DE will get you double digit sacks (no coverage snaps) plus he'll be guaranteed one on one pass rush opportunities as a RULE next to Jones. Ford, if he wins, wins fast and it's dramatic, but Houston wins MORE OFTEN it's just not as dramatic because it's not as FAST. but he's just as effective.
I'd put money on it that if we were to keep Houston and play him every down at RDE and he's healthy all year, he'll match Ford's 13 sacks. he was only 4 away this year and missed what, 5 games?

He's the better player and it works out financially cheaper.

I'm appreciating the spirited and educated discussion by the way.

Talk me out of it. Convince me.

[bricks]

Get rid of Ford and Houston?

I understand some of the rationale behind this both financial and value wise it makes sense, but damn the passrush will go to shit next year IF both of them are gone.

Think of the consequences of that decision. I get the benefits out of it but keep in mind passrushers are a premium in this league and ain’t easy to find. We get rid of them we better make sure we make up for it someway or somehow either by turning around the secondary into a stout unit and be creative in creating pressure from somewhere or hopefully sign an under the radar guy for less money that could get to the QB and find a gem somewhere in the draft...I don’t know. But those are tough decisions.

[Chris Meck]

Originally Posted by bricks

Get rid of Ford and Houston?

I understand some of the rationale behind this both financial and value wise it makes sense, but damn the passrush will go to shit next year IF both of them are gone.

Think of the consequences of that decision. I get the benefits out of it but keep in mind passrushers are a premium in this league and ain’t easy to find. We get rid of them we better make sure we make up for it someway or somehow either by turning around the secondary into a stout unit and be creative in creating pressure from somewhere or hopefully sign an under the radar guy for less money that could get to the QB and find a gem somewhere in the draft...I don’t know. But those are tough decisions.

Dude, read the thread. NOBODY is saying get rid of both, but it's not possible to KEEP BOTH. Most people assume we'll cut Houston and tag and play Ford. My hypothesis is that keeping Houston and trading Ford on the tag is a better financial deal even though it doesn't look like it at face value and that he's overall the superior player. It's kind of fun; it's an actual spirited smart debate about the pro's and con's. Mostly no name calling.