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Old 07-16-2017, 09:33 AM   Topic Starter
beach tribe beach tribe is offline
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See how Alex Smith performs in the red zone compared to rest of AFC West

It was a breezy, borderline chilly, Sunday afternoon in mid-November last season. The 7-2 Kansas City Chiefs were at home against the five-loss Tampa Bay Buccaneers, rolling with a five-game winning streak that included victories over the New Orleans Saints at home and the Oakland Raiders and Carolina Panthers on the road.

It was also ... confession time ... my first visit to Arrowhead Stadium.

I will say, it was an experience I’ll never forget. The atmosphere, the tailgating, the fans ... it was all amazing. But, at the same time, it was just about as frustrating a game as you’ll ever see.

The funny thing is, though, Alex Smith had your typical, average Alex Smith performance. The Chiefs QB threw for 261 yards, had one touchdown and one rushing touchdown, along with one interception. Pretty so-so, but that seems to be then norm for No. 11. Spencer Ware rushed for 69 yards on 17 attempts, a stat line that pretty much was his average performance on the ground in 2016.

I did some digging and found the postgame column of The Kansas City Star’s Sam Mellinger. You don’t have to read too much to remind yourself of how that game panned out.

What could’ve been another ugly Chiefs win turned into an ugly-as-vomit 19-17 loss to the mediocre Buccaneers at home on Sunday the moment quarterback Alex Smith executed a bad throw, poorly leading to an interception in the end zone when even a field goal would’ve probably been enough to win.

The biggest frustration, aside from the inability of the offense to score, was the red zone performance by Smith. Most notably, Smith threw a crucial interception from Tampa Bay’s six-yard line (the one referenced by Sam above) with KC trailing 12-10 early in the fourth quarter.

I won’t spend too much time dwelling on the Smith interception, but it appeared to be a predetermined read, where Smith failed to notice Chris Conte waiting in the middle of the end zone.

And as a Chiefs fan, you probably feel that this missed throw in the tweet below by Smith is one you see every Sunday.

Click here to see Tigerupyourbutt's lover boy make one of the throws that led to his AFCW ranking:
https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2017/...red-zone-stats

The Chiefs scored in the red zone 46 percent of the time in 2016, which was 26th-best in the league. That’s about 10 percent worse than Kansas City’s red zone conversion rate in 2015.

Plus, what really makes the red zone inefficiency by Smith & Co. so frustrating is that the offensive line for the Chiefs did a pretty good job in 2016. According to Pro Football Focus, the Chiefs offensive line allowed the fewest pressures in 2016 (they tied with the Raiders) and Smith saw the lowest percentage of pressures on third down.

For an offense that operates like the Chiefs, scoring in the red zone has to be one of the most important parts of their game. Minus Tyreek Hill running wild throughout the field, there isn’t a big-play threat out there. It’s reasonable to contribute the lack of a play maker to Smith’s inability or unwillingness to take shots down the field.

So, if you were asked a trivia question on where Smith ranked in red zone passing performance in the AFC West in 2016, you’d be a winner if you answered with ... “dead last.”
2016 AFC West Red Zone QB Stats
Quarterback Passing Completion % Passing Yards TD INT Passer Rating Yards/Attempt Rushing Yards
Derek Carr 44/90 47% 306 19 1 91.9 3.4 -7
Philip Rivers 45/96 47% 333 22 2 86.5 3.5 1
Trevor Siemian 28/55 51% 164 10 1 89 3 5
Alex Smith 29/63 46% 167 11 3 72.7 2.7 51
Statistics via Pro Football Reference

The only real edge that Smith has over the other three quarterbacks actually has nothing to do with his passing game. He has 51 rushing yards; the other three have -6 combined rushing yards. Congratulations.

Trevor Siemian threw for one less touchdown than Smith did in the red zone in 2016 but had eight less pass attempts. Smith’s passer rating was 16.3 percentage points worse than the next-best rating, owned by Siemian (89).

The Chiefs are at the point now where no one reasonably expects them to be any better than an average offense so long as Smith is behind center. The AFC West won’t be an easy division to play in in 2017 by any means, and if the Chiefs want to compete for a playoff run, improvement in the red zone should be one of their highest priorities.
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Old 07-16-2017, 09:36 AM   #2
Hog's Gone Fishin Hog's Gone Fishin is offline
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Then we should draft a god damn QB and move on from him!
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Old 07-16-2017, 09:39 AM   #3
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Read this earlier, what a joke Alex is. Game manager who can't score well in the red zone, his lack of running post concussion last year def killed some red zone opportunities. Can't wait to have a different qb in there.
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Old 07-16-2017, 12:00 PM   #4
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Read this earlier, what a joke Alex is. Game manager who can't score well in the red zone, his lack of running post concussion last year def killed some red zone opportunities. Can't wait to have a different qb in there.
You moron he wasn't running before the "concussion". He had 25 yards/0 TDs before the Colts game and then >100 yards with 5 TD's AFTER the "concussion"

People here need to fact check. Good grief.
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Old 07-16-2017, 09:47 AM   #5
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I guess not really surprising. Hes not comfortable throwing guys open and windows get tighter in the red zone. Not making excuses for Smith here but also in the red zone and the closer they get to the end zone is when Andy likes to break out some of his more head scratching plays.

Ultimately though I think its due to passing windows being more compact down in the red zone and Alex doesnt like to take chances. He does have the most rushing yards in the red zone though. lol
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Old 07-16-2017, 10:25 AM   #6
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Originally Posted by NWTF View Post
I guess not really surprising. Hes not comfortable throwing guys open and windows get tighter in the red zone. Not making excuses for Smith here but also in the red zone and the closer they get to the end zone is when Andy likes to break out some of his more head scratching plays.

Ultimately though I think its due to passing windows being more compact down in the red zone and Alex doesnt like to take chances. He does have the most rushing yards in the red zone though. lol
Some of Alex's best throws as a Chief came in 2015 to Maclin in the red zone. With Maclin gone, I think he should look to Conley or maybe Robinson to be his new WR target in the end zone. Conley is pretty good in tight contested situations.
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Old 07-16-2017, 11:56 AM   #7
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Originally Posted by NWTF View Post
I guess not really surprising. Hes not comfortable throwing guys open and windows get tighter in the red zone. Not making excuses for Smith here but also in the red zone and the closer they get to the end zone is when Andy likes to break out some of his more head scratching plays.

Ultimately though I think its due to passing windows being more compact down in the red zone and Alex doesnt like to take chances. He does have the most rushing yards in the red zone though. lol
More compact and safeties who didn't respect our running backs. You can even see in the Bucs game the safety doesn't even bite when the ball was faked to Ware, he automatically went into pass coverage.
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Old 07-16-2017, 12:01 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by TigerUppercut View Post
More compact and safeties who didn't respect our running backs. You can even see in the Bucs game the safety doesn't even bite when the ball was faked to Ware, he automatically went into pass coverage.
It's easy to understand why the Chiefs drafted Hunt in the 3rd round this year.

Ware has been okay when healthy but he's not a game breaker nor a guy that can consistently get 1,200 plus yards season to season. Much of his "success" is due to Andy's scheme. And, he's fallen off a cliff in December and January in both 2015 and 2016.

West was invisible last year. I know he lost 10 pounds and has been training hard this offseason but I still think he's a #3 back at best (although much better than Knile Davis or Cyrus Gray).

Hopefully, Hunt can deliver the goods.
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Old 07-16-2017, 12:05 PM   #9
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It's easy to see why the Chiefs drafted Hunt in the 3rd round this year.

Ware has been okay when healthy but he's not a game breaker nor a guy that can consistently get 1,200 plus yards season to season. Much of his "success" is due to Andy's scheme.

West was invisible last year. I know he lost 10 pounds and has been training hard this offseason but I still think he's a #3 back at best (although much better than Knile Davis or Cyrus Gray).

Hopefully, Hunt can deliver the goods.
Yep, West is definitely #3. What I like about having him on the roster is he is pretty decent at catching in space. We now have 3 legitimate running backs who can catch and run. Falcons and Pats mauled teams last year with 20% of total pass yards coming from awesome YAC by getting the ball out to RB's that can make defenders miss.
I'm still certain that barring injury, this will be Smith's best season.
Escobar is also an underrated red zone TE who unfortunately was buried in the depth chart thanks to Mr. Reliable Jason Witten.
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Old 07-16-2017, 12:11 PM   #10
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Speaking of rookie RBs, Texans draft pick D'Onta Foreman was arrested recently on marijuana and weapons charges.

But yeah, I hope Hunt can be a stud for us. Pretty much every RB to play in Reid's offense has looked even better than they really are, so my expectations are high.
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Old 07-16-2017, 12:59 PM   #11
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It's easy to understand why the Chiefs drafted Hunt in the 3rd round this year.

Ware has been okay when healthy but he's not a game breaker nor a guy that can consistently get 1,200 plus yards season to season. Much of his "success" is due to Andy's scheme. And, he's fallen off a cliff in December and January in both 2015 and 2016.

West was invisible last year. I know he lost 10 pounds and has been training hard this offseason but I still think he's a #3 back at best (although much better than Knile Davis or Cyrus Gray).

Hopefully, Hunt can deliver the goods.
Andy was a huge problem and a big reason we lost the playoff game. Ware had a TD and 4.4 YPC in that game and Hill had 3 carries of his own averaging 6 YPC.

The fact that Alex threw 34 passes that game was reason enough to lose.
The running game was not as weak as people said it was late in the year. Andy should have never put the game solely in Alex's hands.

Ware had only eight rushing attempts while averaging 4.4 YPC. Andy went full reerun.
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Old 07-16-2017, 01:11 PM   #12
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Andy was a huge problem and a big reason we lost the playoff game. Ware had a TD and 4.4 YPC in that game and Hill had 3 carries of his own averaging 6 YPC.

The fact that Alex threw 34 passes that game was reason enough to lose.
The running game was not as weak as people said it was late in the year. Andy should have never put the game solely in Alex's hands.

Ware had only eight rushing attempts while averaging 4.4 YPC. Andy went full reerun.
Another reason to move on from Alex Smith and have a gunslinger quarterback. Andy Reid is just a pass happy coach so he must be embarrassed with his passing game and he did all he could to make Alex what he wasn't. He dialed up plays that should have gone deep but Alex doesn't trust his arm or something.


Once Patrick Mahomes II "Gets It" this offense is going be fun to watch.
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Old 07-16-2017, 12:18 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by TigerUppercut View Post
More compact and safeties who didn't respect our running backs. You can even see in the Bucs game the safety doesn't even bite when the ball was faked to Ware, he automatically went into pass coverage.
And then Alex Smith stares right at the same defender and throws it right to him, costing us the game.
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Old 07-16-2017, 10:20 AM   #14
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Alex Smith did, does and will always suck.
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Old 07-16-2017, 11:18 AM   #15
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Alex Smith did, does and will always suck.
Fact not Fiction
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