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Old 10-15-2004, 07:48 AM  
jjjayb jjjayb is offline
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Oops, this was unexpected, NOT. Bush takes 4 point lead.

Sorry for the Cliched MeMe type title. Couldn't resist. New Reuters poll shows Bush has taken a 4 point lead.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmp...poll_friday_dc
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Old 10-15-2004, 07:54 AM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jjjayb
Sorry for the Cliched MeMe type title. Couldn't resist. New Reuters poll shows Bush has taken a 4 point lead.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmp...poll_friday_dc
"An improvement in Bush's showing among undecideds and a strong response from his base Republican supporters helped fuel the president's rise."

How can this be? I keep being told that Kerry won all three debates? Perhaps folks think won the debates (stylistically) but didn't believe him?
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Old 10-15-2004, 08:13 AM   #3
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sweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeet. I do NOT want Kerry in the lead. It will cause Dems to think it's in the bank. He needs to be a few points down so that they actually turn out.
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Old 10-15-2004, 08:15 AM   #4
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Originally Posted by memyselfI
sweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeet. I do NOT want Kerry in the lead. It will cause Dems to think it's in the bank. He needs to be a few points down so that they actually turn out.
Zogby said the difference between Kerry's 79 percent support among Democrats and Bush's 89 percent support from Republicans also should be "worrisome" for Kerry in such a tight race.

"Kerry needs to close the deal with his fellow Democrats," Zogby said.
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Old 10-15-2004, 08:17 AM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by memyselfI
sweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeet. I do NOT want Kerry in the lead. It will cause Dems to think it's in the bank. He needs to be a few points down so that they actually turn out.
spin, spin, spin
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Old 10-15-2004, 08:26 AM   #6
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"Kerry needs to close the deal with his fellow Democrats," Zogby said.

The checks are in the mail!
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Old 10-15-2004, 08:31 AM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by memyselfI
sweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeet. I do NOT want Kerry in the lead. It will cause Dems to think it's in the bank. He needs to be a few points down so that they actually turn out.
The people dumb enough to need that as motivation will sit there until November 5th or 6th and then say "d@mn, I should've voted. Our democratic traditions demand I be given a do-over."
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Old 10-15-2004, 08:41 AM   #8
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IMHO I've always thought polls didn't matter till after the debates. That being said if Bush pulls ahead by 5 points it's over.
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Old 10-15-2004, 08:42 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by memyselfI
sweeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeet. I do NOT want Kerry in the lead. It will cause Dems to think it's in the bank. He needs to be a few points down so that they actually turn out.
She also wants the Chiefs to be down by 3 TD's going into the 4th quarter just to make sure they play hard.
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Old 10-15-2004, 09:00 AM   #10
memyselfI memyselfI is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Soupnazi
spin, spin, spin
No it's not. I posted this opinion BEFORE this poll yesterday or the day before when it was thought that Kerry had the lead in most polls.

I think Kerry needs to be a couple of points down or tied in order for Dems to be motivated to get out the vote. Seeing that their candidate is not setting them on fire the thought of them NOT going to the poll and DUHbya squeaking by is enough to get people out to the polls.

Dems are not like Pavlov's dog where you throw out a few sound bites full of red meat and they salivate...

seems DUHbya has rallied his base doing this.
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Old 10-15-2004, 09:00 AM   #11
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Old 10-15-2004, 09:00 AM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Donger
"Kerry needs to close the deal with his fellow Democrats," Zogby said.

Maybe the Dems can hold another convention to introduce Kerry to the American people...
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Old 10-15-2004, 09:06 AM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by memyselfI
No it's not. I posted this opinion BEFORE this poll yesterday or the day before when it was thought that Kerry had the lead in most polls.

I think Kerry needs to be a couple of points down or tied in order for Dems to be motivated to get out the vote. Seeing that their candidate is not setting them on fire the thought of them NOT going to the poll and DUHbya squeaking by is enough to get people out to the polls.

I understand what you're saying D-Nise, but I don't agree with you at all. Kerry's problem is his base and right now he's having trouble in multiple polls getting it above 80-85%. If Kerry goes into election day down 5-6 points that's going to depress his turnout even further. If the perception is that Kerry's losing ground it won't energize his base, it will keep them at home.

That said, I wouldn't put much stock into the tracking polls. Not because they're not fun to quote when you're guy's ahead...but because of some research I read recently that showed they were pretty much all wrong in 2000.
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Old 10-15-2004, 09:10 AM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by memyselfI

Dems are not like Pavlov's dog where you throw out a few sound bites full of red meat and they salivate...
She said while garnering registrants from concert venues and potato chip giveaways.
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Old 10-15-2004, 09:13 AM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER
I understand what you're saying D-Nise, but I don't agree with you at all. Kerry's problem is his base and right now he's having trouble in multiple polls getting it above 80-85%. If Kerry goes into election day down 5-6 points that's going to depress his turnout even further. If the perception is that Kerry's losing ground it won't energize his base, it will keep them at home.

That said, I wouldn't put much stock into the tracking polls. Not because they're not fun to quote when you're guy's ahead...but because of some research I read recently that showed they were pretty much all wrong in 2000.
I agree...the farther Bush is ahead the less the dem base will want to break away from Comedy Central reruns.
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