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Old 10-16-2004, 01:33 PM  
RINGLEADER RINGLEADER is offline
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Oct. 16: Seven Battleground States Remain (Bush 264 EVs, Kerry 268 EVs, Tied 6 EVs)

Changes from yesterday: New Washington Post poll puts Bush and Kerry each at 48% in Florida, moving the average in Kerry's direction slightly but not enough to overcome other polls that show Bush still ahead. A new Riley poll in Oregon puts Bush up five points over Kerry, moving that average enough to put Oregon once again in the "toss-up" list of Battleground states (as defined below).

Looking at the current polls the number of true Battleground states has started to firm up. Looking at the averages from the recent polls there are now only a handful of states where a) both candidates are drawing more than 45% in the poll results and b) both candidates are drawing less than 50% in the poll results.

Here's my list with 17 days to go based on the averages of the most recent polls taken in the last week:

Florida: Bush 48.3, Kerry 46.0 (Leans Bush +2.3)
Ohio: Bush 47.3, Kerry 48.3 (Leans Kerry +1.0)
Pennsylvania: Bush 45.3, Kerry 48.7 (Leans Kerry +3.4)
Iowa: Bush 46.8, Kerry 47.5 (Leans Kerry +0.7)
New Hampshire: Bush 46.3, Kerry 47.0 (Leans Kerry +0.7)
Oregon: Bush 45.3, Kerry 48.3 (Leans Kerry +3.0)
New Mexico: Bush 46.5, Kerry 46.5 (Tied)

States that have previously been designated "Battleground" states that are now STRONG Bush or STRONG Kerry (one candidate achieving more than 50% of the poll result or one candidate not achieving more than 45% of the poll result) include: Arkansas (BUSH), Arizona (BUSH), Louisiana (BUSH), Wisconsin (BUSH), North Carolina (BUSH), Tennessee (BUSH), Missouri (BUSH), Nevada (BUSH), Colorado (BUSH), West Virginia (BUSH), Minnesota (KERRY), Michigan (KERRY), Maine (KERRY - although the way the state proportions its electoral votes it is likely Bush will receive one of Maine's four EVs), Washington (KERRY), New Jersey (KERRY), Maryland (KERRY).

The states that are STRONG Bush now account for 237 EVs. States that are STRONG Kerry now account for 210 EVs. There are seven states that account for 91 EVs that fall within my definition of Battleground or "toss-up". If the toss-up states go the way they are leaning right now the final results would be Bush 264 EVs, Kerry 268 EVs, Tied 6 EVs.
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Old 10-17-2004, 10:12 AM   #2
Ugly Duck Ugly Duck is offline
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No worries, RingyDingy. Rove will tell the boyz to raise the terrorist alert level to RED!!! just before the election. That'll swing about 3% your way. BushCo was re-elected the moment the WTC came down.... the rest of this campaign is just going thru the motions.
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