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Old 10-21-2004, 01:20 PM  
RINGLEADER RINGLEADER is offline
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Polls Now Showing Bush Up Big In MN, IA, NM and MI

Will be out later today.

I posted to Hel'n earlier this week that if the state polls start to trend in the same direction as the national polls were showing it would spell bad news for Kerry (while a shift in the national number or a closer race in the state polls would reveal a possible shift back to Kerry).

Since then we've seen Bush up +6 in Wisconsin (Gallup), Bush up +4 in Michigan (Detroit News), and the new batch of Mason-Dixon polls out this evening will apparently show Bush with 5-point leads in New Mexico and Iowa and a 2-point lead in Minnesota.

Kerry has definitely tightened things up in Ohio and Florida (although the most recent polls are showing Bush up slightly in both states while the averages of the polls in the past week show Kerry up by .2 in Ohio and Bush up more than a point in Florida - both within the margin of error). And the polls out today can, of course, change. But the national polls do seem to be dragging th states with them.

If you incorporate these new polls into the current electoral vote counts it would be Bush 310, Kerry 228.
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Old 10-21-2004, 01:37 PM   #2
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I hear that Bush will win Missouri easily too. Not sure if that's true or not.
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Old 10-21-2004, 01:39 PM   #3
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IIRC, Mason-Dixon did well in the 2002 state races.

Still, I'm skeptical (esp. that Detroit News poll). I don't think anyone's got a handle on a good turnout model, and I think lots of polls are going down in flames on Nov. 2.
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Old 10-21-2004, 01:40 PM   #4
Cochise Cochise is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by David.
I hear that Bush will win Missouri easily too. Not sure if that's true or not.
From what I saw when I checked polls last week Bush was up outside the margin of error.

However, in both St. Louis and Kansas City now there are more registered voters than there are eligible voters. There is massive voter fraud going on in both KC and (as usual) in St.L. I just hope it isn't enough to swing the state over to the blue side.
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Old 10-21-2004, 01:53 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by siberian khatru
IIRC, Mason-Dixon did well in the 2002 state races.

Still, I'm skeptical (esp. that Detroit News poll). I don't think anyone's got a handle on a good turnout model, and I think lots of polls are going down in flames on Nov. 2.

I agree...at least until I see additional polls with Bush moving in the right direction in MI (I still think his chances in PA are better than in MI, but we'll know more in a week).

FWIW, if Bush can sustain his leads in MO, AZ, CO, NV, WV and other places where he is outside the MoE and keep Florida in his column and win the one EV by carrying part of Maine (as I think he will) it becomes vitually impossible for Kerry to win:

If Bush wins OH, he wins re-election.
If Bush loses OH, but wins PA he wins re-election.
If Bush loses OH and PA, but wins NJ he wins re-election.
If Bush loses OH, PA and NJ, but wins any combination of MN, WI, IA or OR he wins re-election.

To turn that around, Kerry must win all of his safe states (California, New York, Illinois, the New England states, etc.) and also win OH, PA, NJ, OR, MN, WI, IA, NM and NH to win the election.

If Kerry can pick off Florida his path to the White House obviously becomes a lot easier, but without that state it's pretty clear that Kerry needs to run the table to win the election. And with polls showing Bush ahead or even in all of these blue states the trends don't look good for Kerry.

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Old 10-21-2004, 01:53 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER
Will be out later today.

I posted to Hel'n earlier this week that if the state polls start to trend in the same direction as the national polls were showing it would spell bad news for Kerry (while a shift in the national number or a closer race in the state polls would reveal a possible shift back to Kerry).

Since then we've seen Bush up +6 in Wisconsin (Gallup), Bush up +4 in Michigan (Detroit News), and the new batch of Mason-Dixon polls out this evening will apparently show Bush with 5-point leads in New Mexico and Iowa and a 2-point lead in Minnesota.

Kerry has definitely tightened things up in Ohio and Florida (although the most recent polls are showing Bush up slightly in both states while the averages of the polls in the past week show Kerry up by .2 in Ohio and Bush up more than a point in Florida - both within the margin of error). And the polls out today can, of course, change. But the national polls do seem to be dragging th states with them.

If you incorporate these new polls into the current electoral vote counts it would be Bush 310, Kerry 228.
Do you have links to these polls? Also, where can a good electoral map be found? You seem to be the right guy to ask.
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Old 10-21-2004, 01:54 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cochise
From what I saw when I checked polls last week Bush was up outside the margin of error.

However, in both St. Louis and Kansas City now there are more registered voters than there are eligible voters. There is massive voter fraud going on in both KC and (as usual) in St.L. I just hope it isn't enough to swing the state over to the blue side.
I was shocked to hear yesterday on the radio that Blunt is 6 pts up in the Mo. Gov. race. Who knows if that's enough considering the inherent voter fraud in Mo.
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Old 10-21-2004, 02:00 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gunther_Fan
Do you have links to these polls? Also, where can a good electoral map be found? You seem to be the right guy to ask.

The Mason-Dixon numbers aren't out yet, but there are a variety of bloggers who get head's up on the figures. You can go to Daly Thoughts to see the results.

Also, a good electoral map that you can play around with can be found over at the LA Times via this link. A good source for all the polls is RealClearPolitics.
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Old 10-21-2004, 02:01 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gunther_Fan
I was shocked to hear yesterday on the radio that Blunt is 6 pts up in the Mo. Gov. race. Who knows if that's enough considering the inherent voter fraud in Mo.
McCaskill married the nursing home business, and there has been a lot of scandal in Missouri about them lately. There were a lot of questions about whether she might have used her influence to decrease regulatory pressure on her husband's interests. They have been running a lot of commercials about that lately.
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Old 10-21-2004, 02:13 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cochise
McCaskill married the nursing home business, and there has been a lot of scandal in Missouri about them lately. There were a lot of questions about whether she might have used her influence to decrease regulatory pressure on her husband's interests. They have been running a lot of commercials about that lately.
Mo. needs a Rep. Gov. badly. I hope Blunt pulls out the win.
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Old 10-21-2004, 02:14 PM   #11
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Old 10-21-2004, 02:15 PM   #12
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The Dems are not going to turn out.

almost 90% of republicans think Bush will win.

only 67% of democrats think Kerry will win.

If you don't think your guy is going to win, people stay home.
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Old 10-21-2004, 02:16 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RINGLEADER
The Mason-Dixon numbers aren't out yet, but there are a variety of bloggers who get head's up on the figures. You can go to Daly Thoughts to see the results.

Also, a good electoral map that you can play around with can be found over at the LA Times via this link. A good source for all the polls is RealClearPolitics.
I'm also interested in seeing the latest poll results for these local races:

Moore vs. Kobach
Boyda vs. Ryan
Bi-state II

I've searched and searched and can't find poll numbers. Do you have any suggestions? I've tried the KC Star and RealClearPolitics.
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Old 10-21-2004, 02:17 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoover
The Dems are not going to turn out.

almost 90% of republicans think Bush will win.

only 67% of democrats think Kerry will win.

If you don't think your guy is going to win, people stay home.
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Old 10-21-2004, 02:40 PM   #15
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Winning 2 of: Iowa, Wisconsin or Minnesota would insulate Bush from a loss of Fla. or Ohio.

I personally dont think Bush will capture Mich. or Penn. even if the polling is looking better right now.

If Bush can shave off New Mexico as well from the Dems, it would help balance out an increasingly possible loss in New Hampshire.

Just keep focusing on Ohio and Florida, Mr. President.
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