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Old 10-22-2004, 12:30 AM  
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Oct. 22: Nine Battleground States Remain (Bush 296 EVs, Kerry 241 EVs, Tied 1 EVs)

Changes from last update: New polls show the race either very tight for Kerry in Ohio (Gallup) or leaning Bush (Rasmussen), polls show Florida very trending back towards Bush, while Bush reclaims the lead in New Mexico, Iowa and Wisconsin. New Hampshire and Michigan go back into the toss-up category after being in the "safe Kerry" column. We're now left with nine Battlegrounds as of the averaged polls from the past couple weeks.

Looking at the current polls the number of true Battleground states has started to firm up. Looking at the averages from the recent polls there are now only a handful of states where a) both candidates are drawing more than 45% in the poll results and b) both candidates are drawing less than 50% in the poll results.

Here's my list with 11 days to go based on the averages of the most recent polls taken in the last week:

Iowa: Bush 48.5, Kerry 45.0 (Leans Bush +3.5)
New Mexico: Bush 47.5, Kerry 46.0 (Leans Bush +1.5)
Florida: Bush 48.5, Kerry 47.3 (Leans Bush +1.2)
Wisconsin: Bush 47.4, Kerry 46.2 (Leans Bush +1.2)
Ohio: Bush 47.4, Kerry 47.3 (Leans Bush +0.1)

Oregon: Bush 45.2, Kerry 49.2 (Leans Kerry +4.0)
Pennsylvania: Bush 45.8, Kerry 49.3 (Leans Kerry +3.5)
Michigan:Bush 46.0, Kerry 47.8 (Leans Kerry +1.8)
New Hampshire: Bush 45.8, Kerry 46.5 (Leans Kerry +0.7)

States that have previously been designated "Battleground" states that are now STRONG Bush or STRONG Kerry (one candidate achieving more than 50% of the poll result or one candidate not achieving more than 45% of the poll result) include: Arkansas (BUSH), Arizona (BUSH), Louisiana (BUSH), North Carolina (BUSH), Tennessee (BUSH), Missouri (BUSH), Nevada (BUSH), Colorado (BUSH), West Virginia (BUSH), Minnesota (KERRY), Maine (KERRY - although the way the state proportions its electoral votes it is likely Bush will receive one of Maine's four EVs - but I'm leaving that single EV as "tied" for right now), Washington (KERRY), New Jersey (KERRY), Maryland (KERRY).

The states that are STRONG Bush now account for 227 EVs. States that are STRONG Kerry now account for 192 EVs. There are nine states that account for 119 EVs that fall within my definition of Battleground or "toss-up". If the toss-up states go the way they are leaning right now the final results would be Bush 296 EVs, Kerry 241 EVs, Tied 1 EV.
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Old 10-22-2004, 12:33 AM   #2
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FWIW, if you use only the last poll (as I used to do) the totals would be Bush 271, Kerry 256, Tied 11 based on the Gallup Ohio poll that shows Kerry up +1 (which ended the same day as the Rasmussen poll that shows Bush up +3, but is a 3-day poll instead of a 7-day poll), the ARG poll of New Mexico that shows Kerry ahead +2 and the Rasmussen poll that shows Minnesota tied.
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Old 10-22-2004, 12:43 AM   #3
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Oops...another Minnesota poll shows Bush in the lead...this will bring MN into the toss-up column tomorrow and out of the "safe Kerry" column. Also there will be another Michigan poll out tomorrow on the heels of the Detroit Free Press poll that had Bush up +4 and the Mason-Dixon poll showing Kerry up on +1 that has Bush in the lead (don't have the numbers yet, just know Bush is ahead).

http://www.twincities.com/mld/twinci...9981990.htm?1c

That makes three states that have gone toss-up leaning Kerry to toss-up leaning Bush and three states going from strong Kerry to toss-up leaning Kerry. Outside of the tightening in Ohio, all the momentum has been with Bush in the past week.
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