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View Poll Results: Was this a good bet?...
Yep, that's money. 3 20.00%
Don't know. I don't agree with all his choices. 5 33.33%
He just threw money in the crapper. Bad picks. 4 26.67%
Gaz says buy foo-foo drinks with the money... 3 20.00%
Voters: 15. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 11-26-2004, 12:22 PM  
Rausch Rausch is offline
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My buddy in vegas...

My friend in vegas just bet $50 and I'm wondering what the opinins are on here about it.

He bet a 3 game parlay: Eagles -7.5 VS Giants, Packers -7(MNF) VS Rams, Pats -7 VS Ravens...bet $50 at 6-1 odds...

Also bet $50 on the Eagles.

If you were a betting man these choices look good to you?
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Old 11-26-2004, 12:24 PM   #2
Phobia Phobia is offline
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It looks too good. Normally, I'd take those odds. Normally I'd put a lot on those odds. Normally I'd lose my ass on those odds.
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Old 11-26-2004, 12:25 PM   #3
Rausch Rausch is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Phobia
It looks too good. Normally, I'd take those odds. Normally I'd put a lot on those odds. Normally I'd lose my ass on those odds.
Normally, you do pretty well on the gambling thread...
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Old 11-26-2004, 12:30 PM   #4
Phobia Phobia is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rausch
Normally, you do pretty well on the gambling thread...
Not in a while. Which is why I'm saying this. Every year, there's a bunch of sure things on a week in the middle of the season. Every year, I bet large. Every year I lose my ass. Those 3 games scare me this week. If he were hedging, I'd be all over it. But in a parlay? I don't think he's gonna hit on this one.
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Old 11-26-2004, 12:42 PM   #5
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Don't like it.

PhI/NYG is a division game...these teams play tough regardless of record. At NY. It's just too many points.
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Old 11-26-2004, 12:48 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jspchief
Don't like it.

PhI/NYG is a division game...these teams play tough regardless of record. At NY. It's just too many points.
Truth.
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Old 11-26-2004, 12:50 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rausch
My friend in vegas just bet $50 and I'm wondering what the opinins are on here about it.

He bet a 3 game parlay: Eagles -7.5 VS Giants, Packers -7(MNF) VS Rams, Pats -7 VS Ravens...bet $50 at 6-1 odds...

Also bet $50 on the Eagles.

If you were a betting man these choices look good to you?
I would say that it is a "good" bet.

Whether it is a "winning" bet or not is yet to be seen. lmao.
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Old 11-26-2004, 02:10 PM   #8
Rausch Rausch is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jspchief
Don't like it.

PhI/NYG is a division game...these teams play tough regardless of record. At NY. It's just too many points.
Eli is starting, and even though he walks on water, he's still a rookie. While the Iggles defense is average their coordinator is damned good and likely able to 0WN a rookie QB.

Plus the Giants defense is without Stray-hand and not all that impressive.
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Old 11-26-2004, 02:35 PM   #9
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Parlays seem to be a bad bet. For arguement's sake, let's say the odds being on the winning side of any individual game are 50/50.

So his odds of winning the parlay are (0.5*0.5*0.5) = 0.125 or 1 in 8. The payout is 1 in 6. After figuring for the 10% vig, his expected return is $41.25 on the $50 bet.

Had he bet equally on the three games independently without the parlay, his expected return would be $47.50 on a $50 bet.

Over the long term, he is essentially giving the bookie $6.25 everytime he makes that bet.
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Old 11-26-2004, 02:40 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox
Parlays seem to be a bad bet. For arguement's sake, let's say the odds being on the winning side of any individual game are 50/50.

So his odds of winning the parlay are (0.5*0.5*0.5) = 0.125 or 1 in 8. The payout is 1 in 6. After figuring for the 10% vig, his expected return is $41.25 on the $50 bet.
He's paying $1.50 to bet, twice. So that's $3.00 for two $50 bets.

And of course your odds are less on a parlay than normal bet, but the question was do you think these teams are a good bet this week in a parlay.

Edit: so this thread is more of a football question than a betting question. Will the Pack beat the Lambs by 8?...etc..
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Old 11-26-2004, 02:50 PM   #11
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No juice on parlays.

Another way of looking at is, if I have 3 games that I love, I can get 6 to 1 instead of 1 to 1 times three. The logic is that you feel you have better than a coin flip chance of winning all three games. Higher risk, but higher reward.
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Old 11-26-2004, 02:55 PM   #12
Rausch Rausch is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jspchief
No juice on parlays.

Another way of looking at is, if I have 3 games that I love, I can get 6 to 1 instead of 1 to 1 times three. The logic is that you feel you have better than a coin flip chance of winning all three games. Higher risk, but higher reward.
Exactly.

And he won $50 last week, so he's really betting on the parlay with their money, not his.

The 2nd $50 is his loss if the Iggles don't come through...
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"He had no teeth, and he was slobbering all over himself. I'm thinking, 'You can have your money back, just get me out of here. Let me go be an accountant." I can't tell you how badly I wanted out of there."
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Old 11-26-2004, 03:06 PM   #13
Skip Towne Skip Towne is offline
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Eight points is a LOT in pro football. Beating those odds three times is HUGE.
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Old 11-26-2004, 03:09 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Skip Towne
Eight points is a LOT in pro football. Beating those odds three times is HUGE.
Agreed. Another reason I don't like it. I'd be more inclined to bet the opposite based solely on trends.
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Old 11-26-2004, 03:50 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jspchief
Agreed. Another reason I don't like it. I'd be more inclined to bet the opposite based solely on trends.
I don't like the idea of taking 3 teams that are all giving up pts. That's for sure.
It's bad enough they all have to win, but to all win by 8 is rough. If I had to pick three games it would probably be these three. Maybe the Texans game, I think he said they were 1 pt favorites at home.

He asked about the Chiefs (2 pt favorites) but I told him not to touch that one...
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"He had no teeth, and he was slobbering all over himself. I'm thinking, 'You can have your money back, just get me out of here. Let me go be an accountant." I can't tell you how badly I wanted out of there."
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Quote:
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