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Old 12-05-2004, 11:52 PM  
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The practical impacts of draft position in the first round.

I took a look at the ten drafts from 1990 through 1999, and classified players as either world-beaters, solid pros, disappointing pros, or busts. (I stopped at 1999 because that gives us at least five years of experience to evaluate each player.)

I came up with this matrix. The total points reflects 2 points for a world beater, 1 point for a solid pro, 0 points for a disappointing pro, and -1 points for a bust.

Code:
Position in Draft	World Beaters	Solid Pros	Disappointing Pros	Busts	Points
1	3	3	1	3	6
2	3	1	1	5	2
3	3	2	2	3	5
4	4	2	4	0	10
5	2	2	2	4	2
6	2	5	0	3	6
7	2	4	2	2	6
8	1	5	3	1	6
9	2	4	4	0	8
10	3	5	2	0	11
11	1	4	3	2	4
12	2	5	1	2	7
13	1	6	0	3	5
14	1	4	2	3	3
15	0	7	1	2	5
16	2	4	1	3	5
A quick trend line shows no average difference in drafting round, since you lose only .0014 points for each draft pick you drop. If we increase the value of a world beater to 2 points, the difference becomes more significant - 0.15 points lost per draft number you drop.

Offhand, this tells me that the draft order in the top half of the first round doesn't really impact one's ability to find a solid pro, but it has some impact on the ability to find a world beater.

Here are the draft lists if you're interested.

Code:
1	1990	Jeff George	Colts	QB	Illinois
1	1991	Russell Maryland	Cowboys	DT	Miami (FL)
1	1992	Steve Emtman	Colts	DT	Washington
1	1993	Drew Bledsoe	Patriots	QB	Washington State
1	1994	Dan Wilkinson	Bengals	DT	Ohio State
1	1995	Ki-Jana Carter	Bengals	RB	Penn State
1	1996	Keyshawn Johnson	Jets	WR	USC
1	1997	Orlando Pace	Rams	OT	Ohio State
1	1998	Peyton Manning	Colts	QB	Tennessee
1	1999	Tim Couch	Browns	QB	Kentucky
					
2	1990	Blair Thomas	Jets	RB	Penn State
2	1991	Eric Turner	Browns	DB	UCLA
2	1992	Quentin Coryatt	Colts	LB	Texas A&M
2	1993	Rick Mirer	Seahawks	QB	Notre Dame
2	1994	Marshall Faulk	Colts	RB	San Diego State
2	1995	Tony Boselli	Jaguars	OT	USC
2	1996	Kevin Hardy	Jaguars	LB	Illinois
2	1997	Darrell Russell	Raiders	DT	USC
2	1998	Ryan Leaf	Chargers	QB	Washington State
2	1999	Donovan McNabb	Eagles	QB	Syracuse
					
3	1990	Cortez Kennedy	Seahawks	DT	Miami (FL)
3	1991	Bruce Pickens	Falcons	DB	Nebraska
3	1992	Sean Gilbert	Rams	DT	Pittsburgh
3	1993	Garrison Hearst	Cardinals	RB	Georgia
3	1994	Heath Shuler	Redskins	QB	Tennessee
3	1995	Steve McNair	Oilers	QB	Alcorn State
3	1996	Simeon Rice	Cardinals	DE	Illinois
3	1997	Shawn Springs	Seahawks	DB	Ohio State
3	1998	Andre Wadsworth	Cardinals	DE	Florida State
3	1999	Akili Smith	Bengals	QB	Oregon
					
4	1990	Keith McCants	Buccaneers	LB	Alabama
4	1991	Mike Croel	Broncos	LB	Nebraska
4	1992	Desmond Howard	Redskins	WR	Michigan
4	1993	Marvin Jones	Jets	LB	Florida State
4	1994	Willie McGinest	Patriots	DE	USC
4	1995	Michael Westbrook	Redskins	WR	Colorado
4	1996	Jonathan Ogden	Ravens	OT	UCLA
4	1997	Peter Boulware	Ravens	DE	Florida State
4	1998	Charles Woodson	Raiders	DB	Michigan
4	1999	Edgerrin James	Colts	RB	Miami (FL)
					
5	1990	Junior Seau	Chargers	LB	USC
5	1991	Todd Lyght	Rams	DB	Notre Dame
5	1992	Terrell Buckley	Packers	DB	Florida State
5	1993	John Copeland	Bengals	DE	Alabama
5	1994	Trev Alberts	Colts	LB	Nebraska
5	1995	Kerry Collins	Panthers	QB	Penn State
5	1996	Cedric Jones	Giants	DE	Oklahoma
5	1997	Bryant Westbrook	Lions	DB	Texas
5	1998	Curtis Enis	Bears	RB	Penn State
5	1999	Ricky Williams	Saints	RB	Texas
					
6	1990	Mark Carrier	Bears	DB	USC
6	1991	Eric Swann	Cardinals	DE	None
6	1992	David Klingler	Bengals	QB	Houston
6	1993	Eric Curry	Buccaneers	DE	Alabama
6	1994	Trent Dilfer	Buccaneers	QB	Fresno State
6	1995	Kevin Carter	Rams	DE	Florida
6	1996	Lawrence Phillips	Rams	RB	Nebraska
6	1997	Walter Jones	Seahawks	OT	Florida State
6	1998	Grant Wistrom	Rams	DE	Nebraska
6	1999	Torry Holt	Rams	WR	North Carolina State
					
7	1990	Andre Ware	Lions	QB	Houston
7	1991	Charles McRae	Buccaneers	OT	Tennessee
7	1992	Troy Vincent	Dolphins	DB	Wisconsin
7	1993	Curtis Conway	Bears	WR	USC
7	1994	Bryant Young	49ers	DT	Notre Dame
7	1995	Mike Mamula	Eagles	DE	Boston College
7	1996	Terry Glenn	Patriots	WR	Ohio State
7	1997	Ike Hilliard	Giants	WR	Florida
7	1998	Kyle Turley	Saints	OT	San Diego State
7	1999	Champ Bailey	Redskins	DB	Georgia
					
8	1990	Chris Singleton	Patriots	LB	Arizona
8	1991	Antone Davis	Eagles	OT	Tennessee
8	1992	Bob Whitfield	Falcons	OT	Stanford
8	1993	William Roaf	Saints	OT	Louisiana Tech
8	1994	Sam Adams	Seahawks	DT	Texas A&M
8	1995	Joey Galloway	Seahawks	WR	Ohio State
8	1996	Tim Biakabutuka	Panthers	RB	Michigan
8	1997	James Farrior	Jets	LB	Virginia
8	1998	Greg Ellis	Cowboys	DE	North Carolina
8	1999	David Boston	Cardinals	WR	Ohio State
					
9	1990	Richmond Webb	Dolphins	OT	Texas A&M
9	1991	Stanley Richard	Chargers	DB	Texas
9	1992	Tommy Vardell	Browns	RB	Stanford
9	1993	Lincoln Kennedy	Falcons	OT	Washington
9	1994	Antonio Langham	Browns	DB	Alabama
9	1995	Kyle Brady	Jets	TE	Penn State
9	1996	Rickey Dudley	Raiders	TE	Ohio State
9	1997	Tom Knight	Cardinals	DB	Iowa
9	1998	Fred Taylor	Jaguars	RB	Florida
9	1999	Chris Claiborne	Lions	LB	USC
					
10	1990	Ray Agnew	Patriots	DE	North Carolina State
10	1991	Herman Moore	Lions	WR	Virginia
10	1992	Ray Roberts	Seahawks	OT	Virginia
10	1993	Jerome Bettis	Rams	RB	Notre Dame
10	1994	Jamir Miller	Cardinals	LB	UCLA
10	1995	J.J. Stokes	49ers	WR	UCLA
10	1996	Willie Anderson	Bengals	OT	Auburn
10	1997	Chris Naeole	Saints	OG	Colorado
10	1998	Duane Starks	Ravens	DB	Miami (FL)
10	1999	Chris McAlister	Ravens	DB	Arizona
					
11	1990	Anthony Smith	Raiders	DE	Arizona
11	1991	Pat Harlow	Patriots	OT	USC
11	1992	Leon Searcy	Steelers	OT	Miami (FL)
11	1993	Dan Williams	Broncos	DE	Toledo
11	1994	John Thierry	Bears	DE	Alcorn State
11	1995	Derrick Alexander	Vikings	DE	Florida State
11	1996	Alex Molden	Saints	DB	Oregon
11	1997	Michael Booker	Falcons	DB	Nebraska
11	1998	Tra Thomas	Eagles	OT	Florida State
11	1999	Daunte Culpepper	Vikings	QB	Central Florida
					
12	1990	James Francis	Bengals	LB	Baylor
12	1991	Alvin Harper	Cowboys	WR	Tennessee
12	1992	Marco Coleman	Dolphins	DE	Georgia Tech
12	1993	Patrick Bates	Raiders	DB	Texas A&M
12	1994	Aaron Glenn	Jets	DB	Texas A&M
12	1995	Warren Sapp	Buccaneers	DT	Miami (FL)
12	1996	Regan Upshaw	Buccaneers	DE	California
12	1997	Warrick Dunn	Buccaneers	RB	Florida State
12	1998	Keith Brooking	Falcons	LB	Georgia Tech
12	1999	Cade McNown	Bears	QB	UCLA
					
13	1990	Percy Snow	Chiefs	LB	Michigan State
13	1991	Mike Pritchard	Falcons	WR	Colorado
13	1992	Eugene Chung	Patriots	OT	Virginia Tech
13	1993	Brad Hopkins	Oilers	OT	Illinois
13	1994	Joe Johnson	Saints	DE	Louisville
13	1995	Mark Fields	Saints	LB	Washington State
13	1996	Walt Harris	Bears	DB	Mississippi State
13	1997	Tony Gonzalez	Chiefs	TE	California
13	1998	Takeo Spikes	Bengals	LB	Auburn
13	1999	Troy Edwards	Steelers	WR	Louisiana Tech
					
14	1990	Renaldo Turnbull	Saints	DE	West Virginia
14	1991	Leonard Russell	Patriots	RB	Arizona State
14	1992	Derek Brown	Giants	TE	Notre Dame
14	1993	Steve Everitt	Browns	C	Michigan
14	1994	Bernard Williams	Eagles	OT	Georgia
14	1995	Reuben Brown	Bills	OG	Pittsburgh
14	1996	Eddie George	Oilers	RB	Ohio State
14	1997	Reinard Wilson	Bengals	DE	Florida State
14	1998	Jason Peter	Panthers	DT	Nebraska
14	1999	John Tait	Chiefs	OT	BYU
					
15	1990	Lamar Lathon	Oilers	LB	Houston
15	1991	Huey Richardson	Steelers	LB	Florida
15	1992	Johnny Mitchell	Jets	TE	Nebraska
15	1993	Wayne Simmons	Packers	LB	Clemson
15	1994	Wayne Gandy	Rams	OT	Auburn
15	1995	Ellis Johnson	Colts	DT	Florida
15	1996	John Mobley	Broncos	LB	Kutztown (PA)
15	1997	Yatil Green	Dolphins	WR	Miami (FL)
15	1998	Anthony Simmons	Seahawks	LB	Clemson
15	1999	Anthony McFarland	Buccaneers	DT	LSU
					
16	1990	James Williams	Bills	DB	Fresno State
16	1991	Dan McGwire	Seahawks	QB	San Diego State
16	1992	Chester McGlockton	Raiders	DT	Clemson
16	1993	Sean Dawkins	Colts	WR	California
16	1994	Aaron Taylor	Packers	OT	Notre Dame
16	1995	Hugh Douglas	Jets	DE	Central State (OH)
16	1996	Duane Clemons	Vikings	DE	California
16	1997	Reidel Anthony	Buccaneers	WR	Florida
16	1998	Kevin Dyson	Oilers	WR	Utah
16	1999	Jevon Kearse	Oilers	LB	Florida
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Old 12-06-2004, 12:13 AM   #2
Valiant Valiant is offline
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Now just use the Chiefs ability of top ten picks compared to the other picks and you get a different story...(1 point for probowler, .5 pt for average, no points for bust...)

DT
Neil Smith

Ryan Sims, two all pros and one average player...

2.5 out of three.. for a 83% we will get a great player from previous draft..

compared to
slymo bust
tait average
victor riley bust
Tony G all star
Woods average
jenkins bust
hill bust
dale carter all star
harvey williams bust
percy snow bust

3 out of 10.. Got as many playmakers in 10 picks as we did with our 3 choices fromthe 10 ten...



hmm statistics even show we have a better chance at drafting playmakers with better picks...
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Old 12-06-2004, 07:02 AM   #3
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Old 12-06-2004, 07:26 AM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Valiant

slymo bust
He's an unfortunate bust- the guy looked outstanding before his persistent injuries. He did have the makings of a star WR- his injuries were rather unfortunate, and I really felt bad for him for he had a promising career.

Quote:
tait average
He's better than average- I'd rather have Tait than Welbourne.

Quote:
Woods average
Not sure what happened to Woods this year, but he WAS a Pro Bowl player on a crappy D last year. His previous years were also better than average....Pro Bowl players are not "average"

Quote:
harvey williams bust
He did have a couple of 100 yd games on a team that was a RB by committee. I wouldn't call him a bust, but expectations of him were high. Had he not been on a team filled with RB's like we had then- he may have panned out better.



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Old 12-06-2004, 08:21 AM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Valiant
Now just use the Chiefs ability of top ten picks compared to the other picks and you get a different story...(1 point for probowler, .5 pt for average, no points for bust...)

DT
Neil Smith

Ryan Sims, two all pros and one average player...

2.5 out of three.. for a 83% we will get a great player from previous draft..

compared to
slymo bust
tait average
victor riley bust
Tony G all star
Woods average
jenkins bust
hill bust
dale carter all star
harvey williams bust
percy snow bust

3 out of 10.. Got as many playmakers in 10 picks as we did with our 3 choices fromthe 10 ten...



hmm statistics even show we have a better chance at drafting playmakers with better picks...

Tait & Riley will start for any of the 32 teams. Hardly a bust.
Also, Slymo is often injured so he can't be considered a bust if he's never hardly played. Same for Woods... Wasn't he a probowler at some point?

I think your judgement is a little biased.

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