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Old 02-03-2005, 09:12 AM  
alnorth alnorth is offline
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2006 midterm election predictions?

First of all, I'm not too interested in the House. With the congressional redistricting down to a Science, we have seen only a tiny, tiny handful of incumbents lose every 2 years. In 2004, I think you could count the incumbent losers on a single hand, maybe two. So, the Republicans will retain the House, maybe with a larger or smaller margin. The Democrats might have a chance in 2008 with a wildly popular candidate at the top of the ticket, or if not, then wait for the next redistricting to make their move in 2012.

The Senate is going to be the whole ballgame, where just about anything from a huge GOP gain to filibuster-proof, down to almost a dead split could theoretically happen, with the most likely outcome being maybe a shift of 1 or 2 seats.

(Let me know if I made an embarassing mistake somewhere!)

Safe Dem: Akaka-HI, Byrd-WV (rumored to retire since hell be 88, but if so, this seat probably stays with the Dems), Clinton-NY, Feinstein-CA (rumored to retire, probably stays with the Dems if so), Kennedy-MA, Lieberman-CT, Sarbanes-MD

Likely Dem: Bingaman-NM (62% in 2000, NM is swing state), Carper-DE (only 56% in 2000, but Deleware is solid blue), Conrad-ND (61% in 2000, but this is North Dakota), Kohl-WI (62% in swing state)

Barely Dem: Cantwell-WA (won a 49%-49% close vote in 2000), Corzine-NJ (how do you win only 51% in New Jersey?), Dayton-MN (won 49% in 3-candidate field), Nelson-FL (only 52% in a swing state), Stabenow-MI (won 50%-49% in swing state)

Independant: Jumpin' Jim Jeffords (who the hell knows, he won 62% in 2000, but that was under the banner of a major party. I have to believe hell fall against the GOP or the Democrats, so this seat might be considered the same as an "open" seat.)

Safe GOP: Hatch-UT, Hutchison-TX (rumored to run for TX Gov in 2006, probably GOP if so), Kyl-AZ, Lott-MS (rumored to retire, probably stays GOP if so), Lugar-IN (rumored to retire, probably stays GOP if so), Snowe-ME, Thomas-WY

Likely GOP: Chafee-RI (Socially Liberal Republican who will probably win again, here instead of "safe" only because it doesnt get much bluer than RI), Dewine-OH (61% in a swing state), Ensign-NV (56% in a red state),

Barely GOP: Allen-VA (only won 52%-48% in a traditionally red state), Santorum-PA (53% in a slightly blue state), Talent-MO (barely won in swing state)

Open: (R seat) Tennessee (The Senate Majority leader Bill Frist, will retire. Likely GOP since this state is so red, but you never know), (R seat) Montana (Conrad Burns is retiring. This state is probably with the GOP, but its interesting to note that with all the powers of incumbancy, Burns only won 51% of the vote against an unknown who never ran for office. I have to believe that Burns was simply just that bad, because this is no swing state)

Democrat Nightmare Scenario: 5 seats to the GOP, 60-40 filibuster-proof majority. Jeffords seat probably stays with the Democrats, but the left has a lot of possible vulnerabilities, if the political winds go against them, it could get ugly.

GOP Nightmare Scenario: 4 seat swing, putting the Senate at 51-49. (So yes, I think I'm saying the Dems have no shot at a takeover, but well see) The Dems have more seats to defend, but if the political winds shift their way, there are plenty of vulnerable Republicans.

What I think is most Likely: Jefford's seat goes Dem, Democrats pick off 1, GOP picks off a couple, so the night ends at GOP +1, maybe +2
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Old 02-03-2005, 10:22 AM   #2
Hoover Hoover is offline
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Frist Will not retire, he can get reelected and still run for President.

Allen will be fine, and with Chafee being the only seat they really have to defend they should hold at 55 seats for sure, I do not think they can get to 60
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Old 02-03-2005, 10:38 AM   #3
alnorth alnorth is offline
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Quote:
Frist Will not retire, he can get reelected and still run for President.
No, its a done deal, I didnt write down that he was retiring just for chuckles or based on a guess. When he was elected 10 years ago he promised to serve only 2 terms, and he re-iterated that promise last night after the president's speech, saying that he was focusing on the president's agenda for the next two years, after which hell leave congress to go back home to Tennessee.

After all, the man is a highly-regarded skilled heart surgeon who practices medicine in what little spare time he has, I guess he doesnt want to be a congressman any longer, and would prefer to practice medicine again?
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Old 02-03-2005, 10:48 AM   #4
Amnorix Amnorix is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoover
Allen will be fine, and with Chafee being the only seat they really have to defend they should hold at 55 seats for sure, I do not think they can get to 60
First off -- nice post by alnorth to start this thread.

Santorum is WAY right, and I think the Democrats will push hard to take his seat away in a state that seems to be leaning more and more Democratic.

Corzine is a fabulously wealthy businessman who seriously outspent his opponent, who I think was a very popular politician in the state. I'm trying to remember if Corzine came into the race late. Anyway, Corzine seems to have "made his bones" fairly well and I think NJ would be exceedingly safe for him.

Vermont will go Republican the day Utah goes Democrat... Jeffords was unique.

Allen ought to be safe in Virginia.

Really, though, it all depends on what happens with Bush and Iraq over the next year or so, I think. Will there be the usual reactionary vote against a sitting President, or not?
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Old 02-03-2005, 10:54 AM   #5
mlyonsd mlyonsd is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Amnorix
Really, though, it all depends on what happens with Bush and Iraq over the next year or so, I think. Will there be the usual reactionary vote against a sitting President, or not?
Exactly. Trying to predict the mid-term elections this far in advance is no more a crap shoot then trying to figure out who the Chiefs #1 draft pick will be.

Bush gave a great speech last night and his confidence was evident but hey, it was just a speech.
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Old 02-03-2005, 11:39 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mlyonsd
Exactly. Trying to predict the mid-term elections this far in advance is no more a crap shoot then trying to figure out who the Chiefs #1 draft pick will be.
I like Bush's chances better than Carl's.
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Old 02-03-2005, 03:19 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoover
Frist Will not retire, he can get reelected and still run for President.

Allen will be fine, and with Chafee being the only seat they really have to defend they should hold at 55 seats for sure, I do not think they can get to 60
But 58 is a real likelyhood in which case, bribing 2 Democrats with pork for their home state to allow a vote is much easier than paying off 5.
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Old 02-06-2005, 02:12 AM   #8
Bearcat2005 Bearcat2005 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoover
Frist Will not retire, he can get reelected and still run for President.

Allen will be fine, and with Chafee being the only seat they really have to defend they should hold at 55 seats for sure, I do not think they can get to 60
agreed! i believe the GOP will gain 2 maybe 3 seats in Senate, I also believe Jim Talent will be safe.
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Old 02-06-2005, 12:24 PM   #9
RINGLEADER RINGLEADER is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Amnorix
Will there be the usual reactionary vote against a sitting President, or not?

You mean like there was during the mid-terms of Clinton's second term or the mid-terms of Bush's first? I think you can flush the "congressional mid-terms go against the sitting president" myth along with the "higher turnout favors Dems" and "late-deciders always break for the challenger" party-lines.
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Old 02-06-2005, 12:27 PM   #10
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Corzine is running for the governorship of NJ so that's going to be an open seat. I think if Rossi ultimately withdraws from his contesting of the WA governorship he'll be in great shape to take out Cantwell (who's done a great job living up to her name). The only seats I feel really concerned about on the GOP side are maybe PA (although Santorum, despite his conservative styling, seems to be pretty well thought of there) and MO (mainly because Talent is a dweeb who would lose to a charsimatic Dem...luckily there aren't too many of those).
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