Rand's Take: With Today's Defense, The Chiefs...

[AirForceChief]

...would go 10-6 and grab a Wild Card. This is after his review of the schedule (and at least a six pack):

RAND: Chiefs will need a fast finish
Apr 15, 2005, 1:18:52 PM by Jonathan Rand



For the Chiefs, winning big this December should be a lot more meaningful than it was in 2004.



The Chiefs went 4-0 last December a year ago but that success came too late because they entered that month at 3-8. This year, they should be able to enter December with a winning record and their last five games, including the finale on New Year’s Day, should make or break their playoff chances.

The Chiefs’ schedule, released Wednesday, suggests a struggle early and a playoff run late. The schedule appears tough at the start but manageable at the end. Which is fine for the Chiefs, providing they can head into their bye week no worse than 2-2.

Of the Chiefs’ seven games against 2004 playoff teams, three are among their first four games, including the opener September 11 at home against the New York Jets. After a Sunday night game at Oakland and Monday night game at Denver, the Chiefs come home October 2 to face the Philadelphia Eagles, defending NFC champions. The Chiefs will certainly need a bye week after that, the first of three key stretches on their schedule.

The second key stretch begins October 23, a week after a home game against Washington. This stretch includes four road games in five weeks, with a home game against the Raiders in the middle.

The Chiefs will probably need to win at least three of these five games. They’ll likely be underdogs at San Diego on October 30 and face a tough time at Buffalo on November 13. But games at Miami on October 23 and Houston on November 20 are obviously winnable and probably will prove crucial to the Chiefs’ playoff chances.

When a team travels so much in a short stretch, it’s prone to stubbing its toe when least expected. The Chiefs can’t afford to stub their toes and, to make the playoffs, need to stand no worse than 6-4 when they meet New England, defending Super Bowl champion, on November 27 at Arrowhead.

If the Chiefs lose to the Patriots, as they did at home a year ago, you can see why the final stretch becomes so important. It includes home games against the Broncos and Chargers, back-to-back games at Dallas and the New York Giants and a home game against the Cincinnati Bengals. Here’s guessing that the Chiefs will have to win four of those last five games to make the playoffs.

Any way you look at it, the Chiefs’ won’t have a cakewalk. The Chiefs’ 16 opponents in 2004 finished 137-119, counting the records of AFC rivals San Diego, Denver and Oakland each twice.

The Chiefs play seven games against 2004 playoff teams and nine games against teams that finished 8-8 or better.

Any team prefers to play its strongest opponents at home and weakest opponents on the road. So the Chiefs should be pleased to see the Jets, Eagles and Patriots coming to Arrowhead. Of their seven games against teams that had losing records last year, the Chiefs play five of them on the road.

Though the Chiefs came limping into December last year, it wasn’t the tough spots that wrecked their season. They faced a couple of two-game stretches that offered terrific opportunities to keep the Chiefs in contention.

But instead of rebounding from an opening-loss at Denver, they lost consecutive home games to underdogs Carolina and Houston. After scoring impressive home wins over Atlanta and Indianapolis, the Chiefs faced two so-so opponents on the road. But losses at Tampa Bay and New Orleans dropped the Chiefs to 3-6 and their season was toast.

The Chiefs, who finished 7-9, could have enjoyed a successful season had they just taken care of business against ordinary opponents. But as long as their defense couldn’t stop anybody, there was no such thing as an ordinary opponent for the Chiefs.

Given a much-improved defense, the Chiefs will be less likely to lay an egg against the teams they should beat. We’ll have a better handle on the Chiefs’ prospects after they complete their draft and cornerback search, but if they had to start the season Sunday, they’d finish 10-6 and grab a wild-card playoff spot.

The opinions offered in this column do not necessarily reflect those of the Kansas City Chiefs.

[ChiefsCountry]

Actually I say he is about right. Guys we went 7-9 last season with a crappier defense, and we could have easily won some of those games. This place should be the glass half empty planet.

[Mr. Laz]

Originally Posted by ChiefsCountry

This place should be the glass half empty planet.

whatever give us some actual football reason to think that this team is going to be significantly better and maybe it will change.


"faith" doesn't win football games

[AirForceChief]

My post wasn't negative...like I always say, I'm a see the Kool-Aid as half-full kind of guy, I'm just not gonna drink it till I see someone else try it first.

[tyton75]

yeah.. I'd say thats about right on in my estimation.. although he didn't stress enough how much we NEED to start off the season with a win over the JETS!!!!!!!

[crossbow]

Originally Posted by ChiefsCountry

Actually I say he is about right. Guys we went 7-9 last season with a crappier defense, and we could have easily won some of those games. This place should be the glass half empty planet.

I could see us improving by 3 games from last year if they get a cornerback. If they don't then well, same ol same ol. The defensive line still isn't anything to brag about.

[the Talking Can]

is he assuming we get Surtain?

because right now our defense is still a flaming piece of shit....

[beer bacon]

Originally Posted by tyton75

yeah.. I'd say thats about right on in my estimation.. although he didn't stress enough how much we NEED to start off the season with a win over the JETS!!!!!!!

I don't see the Jets being as good this year as they were last year. The main reason being I don't think Martin will be able to to duplicate last year's monster season and will go back to his good, but not not amazing, 1100-1400 yards or so. I also don't think their passing game is good enough to pick up the slack.

[beer bacon]

Originally Posted by the Talking Can

is he assuming we get Surtain?

because right now our defense is still a flaming piece of shit....

We could have gone 10-6 last year if a few things would have rolled our way. I think you guys are forgetting that this is an odd year.

[HemiEd]

Originally Posted by Laz

whatever give us some actual football reason to think that this team is going to be significantly better and maybe it will change.

Sammy Knight, Kendrell Bell, Carlos Hall and a year of more maturity under Gunther for the rest of the defense.

[KCTitus]

After a 2002 season where KC went 7-9, they added 3 of the biggest FA busts in NFL history and went 13-3.

After the 2004 season and prior to the Draft, KC has added 2 more FA's to their defense, level of bustage has yet to be determined, but I'd say that could be good for 3 wins assuming the offense stops fumbling the ball inside the 10 yard line.

[Hoover]

I think its good for writers to do stuff like this. The problem last year was the shitty start, we have to be ready.

[CoMoChief]

You guys forget to remember that the players look to win every game. Just because we play the Pats or the Eagles doesnt mean were gonna lose. We are very capable of beating those teams and I think this year were gonna be good granted we get DJ in the draft and Surtain and Barber gets healthy.

[Mr. Laz]

Originally Posted by HemiEd

Sammy Knight, Kendrell Bell, Carlos Hall and a year of more maturity under Gunther for the rest of the defense.

i never said that the team hadn't tried to make improvements and they very well may have.

but the list of possible issues is twice as long as the reasons you just gave.

i'm not going to list them because i don't wanna be a "complainer"

[the Talking Can]

Originally Posted by beer bacon

We could have gone 10-6 last year if a few things would have rolled our way. I think you guys are forgetting that this is an odd year.

most teams can say that...it's nonsense, we weren't talented enough...I hope CP isn't banking on this "odd year" vodoo...