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Old 08-24-2005, 01:01 PM  
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Ooops; No housing bubble

I guess if you keep predicting something year after year, it may eventually come true. Keep your fingers crossed, AP!


Posted on Wed, Aug. 24, 2005

New-home sales reach record high in July

JEANNINE AVERSA

Associated Press


WASHINGTON - Sales of new homes shot up to a record high in July, while U.S. factories saw orders for costly manufactured goods drop by the largest amount in 18 months.

The mixed-message reports released Wednesday by the Commerce Department dramatized the vibrancy of the housing market and also the occasionally erratic pace of recovery from the 2001 recession in manufacturing.

Taken together, though, the reports still pointed to an economy that is moving ahead at a decent clip.

New-home sales in July soared to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.41 million units. That represented a 6.5 percent increase from June's pace of 1.32 million units, which had been the previous record.

In the department's second report, new bookings to U.S. factories for "durable" goods - big-ticket items expected to last at least three years - declined by 4.9 percent in July from the previous month.

It marked the biggest drop since January 2004, when durable-goods orders fell by 5.7 percent.

Some economists thought part of July's decline might reflect businesses turning a bit cautious in their buying given a toll of high energy prices that can increase their costs and squeeze their bottom lines.

The drop in orders "suggests that escalating oil prices ... might be creating skittishness on the part of business decision makers," said Clifford Waldman, economist at the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI, a research group. On the other hand, he said, July's decline comes after nice increases in the prior three months.

In financial markets, stocks rose. The Dow Jones industrials gained 12 points and the Nasdaq was up 11 points in morning trading.

On the housing front, the performance in July surprised economists who were predicting that sales of new homes would fall in July.

By region, sales rose in the West and Northeast, but fell in the Midwest and South.

The median price of a new-home in July was $203,800, down from $212,400 a year ago. The median price is where half sell for more and half sell for less.

Existing-home sales dipped in July but still were at the third-highest level on record, a report released Tuesday showed.

While the booming housing market has been a consistent star performer for the economy in recent years, the manufacturing sector has sometimes had a bumpy ride.

The last time durable-goods orders fell was in March. Since then, manufacturers have been seeing bookings go up. In June, orders went up by 1.9 percent.

Manufacturers were hardest hit by the recession and they struggled mightily to get back to good health. Analysts believe the factory sector has shown much improvement and is in good shape, although manufacturing employment is still weak and there can be ups and downs in bookings from month to month.

The weakness seen in July hit a broad range of categories, including machinery, computers, communications equipment, electrical equipment and appliances, and airplanes. That more than offset stronger demand for automobiles and parts, and primary metals, a category that includes steel.

The decline in July was steeper than analysts were predicting. Before the release of the report, economists were forecasting a drop in durable-goods orders of around 1.2 percent.

Excluding orders for transportation equipment, which can swing widely from month to month, all other durable-goods orders fell by 3.2 percent in July. That compared with a 3.6 percent increase in June.

Shipments, a good barometer of current demand, dipped by 0.1 percent in July, after growing by 0.3 percent in June.

Businesses have had to cope with surging energy bills. Oil prices climbed to an all-time closing high of $67.10 a barrel on Aug. 12.

Wanting to make sure high energy prices don't spark a broader outbreak of inflation, the Federal Reserve earlier this month boosted short-term interest rates for a 10th time since June 2004. Another rate increase is expected at the Fed's next meeting, Sept. 20.
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Old 08-24-2005, 01:55 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nm_dbf
Phx, AZ seems like it has boomed too long.
Californians are pouring into Phoenix by the hundreds each week. It's funny, they migrate here to escape the urban nightmare they built over there and, in so doing, have built the same crappy city structure they sought to escape. The CA flood, along with the hispanic hordes, have caused Phoenix to grow to the 5th largest city in the US.
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Old 08-24-2005, 01:57 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oldandslow
It will be over before the year is out.

You can take that to the bank. In fact I have. Just sold a rental home and would, under no circumstances, buy another now.
Ok you lost me here, the medium price of a new home dropped around 1% over the past year. And this caused you to sell a rental property.

What does the price of new housing have to do with rental property?

The only thing that would affect your investment in rental property is if the market is over built with your segment of rental space and the price is being pushed down.

If anything a bust in the new home market would cause more people to rent driving up the rental price and in turn your return on your investment.

Also even if your property value was to decline, you are not hurt as long as you are making a decent return on your investment.
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Old 08-24-2005, 01:58 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Amnorix
People said tech stocks were a bubble for a long, long time before it popped.

The only way we'll know if we're in a bubble NOW is to wait about 3-5 years, not 6-9 months.
So you are an expert on the Phoenix housing market and can speak to the subject with more authority than a state economics official?
Spare me.
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Old 08-24-2005, 02:05 PM   #19
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Red:

I will admit that there are facters that you cannot be familiar with. One is that I live in SD. The state is actually LOSING population each year, except for Sioux Falls. There are demographics going on here that one could not believe. Schools shutting down for lack of kids etc.

On top of that, I honestly believe we are on the verge of a major recession. Fed monotary policy, fed overspending, and oil are going to drive it. I am not the only one who thinks so.

The countdown to recession this fall has begun.
Wall Street Examiner
August 25, 2005

It may still be one to two months away but the countdown is on. The durable goods orders report is just that orders, and not actual sales. The large 4.9% drop in durable goods orders represents most clearly a sudden loss in confidence by the business sector. So far during 2005, it was the heavy spending by business that has propelled the economy forward not the consumer - who on a per person basis barely has maintained their inflation and tax adjusted income.

At first we will see small, minor drops in economic activity. As we enter September, the slowdown will be more obvious. Factors exerting negative pull on the economy are rising debt repayments (household debt is 56% higher than 5 years ago), low (zero) savings rate, soaring energy bills, increased tax rate, slowdown in new credit growth (mostly mortgages), and the possibility of major business bankruptcies, along with many personal bankruptcies, in September ahead of new federal bankruptcy rules in October.
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Old 08-24-2005, 02:17 PM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vailpass
So you are an expert on the Phoenix housing market and can speak to the subject with more authority than a state economics official?
Spare me.
WTF cares about Phoenix, 'cept you? I'm talking about nationwide trends, and citing Boston in particular.

The article starting this thread didn't even mention Phoenix.
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Old 08-24-2005, 02:40 PM   #21
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[quote=oldandslow]Red:

it was the heavy spending by business that has propelled the economy forward not the consumer - who on a per person basis barely has maintained their inflation and tax adjusted income.

QUOTE]

The July Beige Report kind of flys in the face of this, consumer spending has been strong in 2005 except in Boston and New York.....could your source have an east coast bias?

http://www.federalreserve.gov/FOMC/B...27/default.htm

"Consumer Spending
Most Districts reported increases in retail sales, and reports on retailers' expectations were generally positive. Dallas said sales growth had been stronger than expected given high gasoline prices, and Atlanta noted that higher gasoline prices did not appear to have cut into spending on other items; Cleveland and Chicago said warmer weather may have boosted sales in their Districts. Minneapolis and Kansas City reported solid year-over-year retail sales gains, and sales also increased in the Philadelphia, Richmond, and San Francisco Districts. The weakest report on retail sales came from the Boston District, where sales were flat or down from a year ago and retailers were less optimistic than in previous surveys. New York also reported a softening in sales in early July following solid growth in June, while St. Louis said reports on retail sales were mixed in June."
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Old 08-24-2005, 03:49 PM   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Amnorix
WTF cares about Phoenix, 'cept you? I'm talking about nationwide trends, and citing Boston in particular.

The article starting this thread didn't even mention Phoenix.
In my post I quoted a 6-9 month time frame for Phoenix as a watch-zone. In your post you directly refuted a 6-9 month time frame.
I assumed you were responding to my post regarding Phoenix; if this is not the case please accept my apology for being mistaken.

WTF cares about Phoenix? Not me inparticular but the eye candy here sure is fine.
BTW, ***** Boston. It'll be nice when you Massholes finally .
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Old 08-24-2005, 03:51 PM
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Old 08-24-2005, 06:03 PM   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vailpass
In my post I quoted a 6-9 month time frame for Phoenix as a watch-zone. In your post you directly refuted a 6-9 month time frame.
I assumed you were responding to my post regarding Phoenix; if this is not the case please accept my apology for being mistaken.
No, YOU referenced a 9 month timeframe. The 6-9 months was by OldandSlow:

Quote:
Originally Posted by oldandslow
Come back to me in 6 to nine months and call me crazy.
Second, you're misunderstanding my entire post. I'm AGREEING with you for God's sake.
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Old 08-25-2005, 08:59 AM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Amnorix
No, YOU referenced a 9 month timeframe. The 6-9 months was by OldandSlow:



Second, you're misunderstanding my entire post. I'm AGREEING with you for God's sake.

Amnorix:

That was pointed toward Brock, not you. Sorry for the misunderstanding.
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Old 08-25-2005, 09:04 AM   #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oldandslow
Amnorix:

That was pointed toward Brock, not you. Sorry for the misunderstanding.
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Old 08-25-2005, 09:12 AM   #26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oldandslow
Brock,

You do not need to call me crazy.

Indeed, I would argue that you are the one who needs to be wary.

Oil + increased interest rates are soon going to have an impact.

Come back to me in 6 to nine months and call me crazy.

I suspect you will be singing a different tune.

Ah, Increased interest rates?

Buddy they are still low. They are the lowest they have been in months.

I know I am in the mortgage industry
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Old 08-25-2005, 09:17 AM   #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Amnorix
People said tech stocks were a bubble for a long, long time before it popped.

The only way we'll know if we're in a bubble NOW is to wait about 3-5 years, not 6-9 months.

There are multiple danger signs in the Boston housing market. Every amateur in the world is going into real estate. It's hard to fathom that it can be infinitely perpetuated. Of course, many of us were thinking the market was overheated 2 years ago, and so far there's been zero sign that we were right.

I literally remember speaking with a friend around 2000. He was saying how he and his wife were thinking of buying a house in 1997 or so, but things were a little overheated, so they waited. Same thing in 1998. Same thing in 1999. Finally, in 2000, after prices were MUCH higher than they had been in 1997, they decided they couldn't wait any longer and bought a house.

And here we are, FIVE YEARS after that, and still it continues.

So who knows. Until it pops, it's not a bubble.
When I started in the mortgage industry in October of 200 Rates were at 7.5 on a 30 year mortgage now we are at 5.75. So we still HAVE A LONG WAY TO GO ON RATES GOING U.

The thing that people don't realize is 9/11 kept it going . Rates were coming down in Jan of 2001 and they were dow for about 6 months or so. They were going back up before 9/11 and they have been down ever since.
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Old 08-25-2005, 10:21 AM   #28
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Across the board it's the realtors and mortgage people that will go to the wall to convince you that there is no such thing as a real estate bubble.
Can't say I blame them. When the housing market comes back in line there will be an awful lot of mortgage and re-fi "specialists" holding up "will work for food" signs.
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Old 08-25-2005, 10:24 AM   #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Amnorix
No, YOU referenced a 9 month timeframe. The 6-9 months was by OldandSlow:
My bad. Go easy there chowd, no need to get worked up.
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Old 08-25-2005, 10:28 AM   #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vailpass
Across the board it's the realtors and mortgage people that will go to the wall to convince you that there is no such thing as a real estate bubble.
Can't say I blame them. When the housing market comes back in line there will be an awful lot of mortgage and re-fi "specialists" holding up "will work for food" signs.

And we have a winner......
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