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Old 11-15-2005, 12:09 AM  
cdcox cdcox is offline
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10-6 might be good enough to make the playoffs

I spent the evening adding a new feature to my Pro Football Forecaster software. It tallies how many times a team achieves a given number of victories, then determines how often that number of victories leads to a playoff appearance. It is on a new tab (Predicted Wins) which will appear when the software automatically updates the next time you start it.

My software predicts that there is a 14% chance we will finish 10-6. If we do finish that well, there is a 47% chance we will make the playoffs. Don't get too excited though, my software thinks it is more likely that the Chiefs will finish 7-9 (19.5% chance), 8-8 (29% chance), or 9-7 (26% chance) than 10-6. Even if by some miricle we finished 11-5, there is only a 93% chance we would make the playoffs.
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Old 11-15-2005, 12:15 AM   #2
SoCalBronco SoCalBronco is offline
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The AFC has become very cutthroat the last couple years. 9-7 doesnt come close to cutting it anymore. 10-6 has only been good enough to get us a couple trips into that damn dome in Indy. Meanwhile 8-8 wins you divisions in some parts of the NFC. Damn.
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Old 11-15-2005, 12:15 AM   #3
MadMax MadMax is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox
I spent the evening adding a new feature to my Pro Football Forecaster software. It tallies how many times a team achieves a given number of victories, then determines how often that number of victories leads to a playoff appearance. It is on a new tab (Predicted Wins) which will appear when the software automatically updates the next time you start it.

My software predicts that there is a 14% chance we will finish 10-6. If we do finish that well, there is a 47% chance we will make the playoffs. Don't get too excited though, my software thinks it is more likely that the Chiefs will finish 7-9 (19.5% chance), 8-8 (29% chance), or 9-7 (26% chance) than 10-6. Even if by some miricle we finished 11-5, there is only a 93% chance we would make the playoffs.

Would you bet a ****in nickle on this team in the playoffs?
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Old 11-15-2005, 12:18 AM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MadMax
Would you bet a ****in nickle on this team in the playoffs?
If we ran the table against the schedule we face to actually get in? Heck yeah.
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Old 11-15-2005, 12:20 AM   #5
cdcox cdcox is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SoCalBronco
The AFC has become very cutthroat the last couple years. 9-7 doesnt come close to cutting it anymore. 10-6 has only been good enough to get us a couple trips into that damn dome in Indy. Meanwhile 8-8 wins you divisions in some parts of the NFC. Damn.
Chicago will probaly have more than 8 wins this year. The division to watch is the AFC east, where 8 wins by NE would more than likely take the division (65% of the time). Other teams in that division would most likely need 9 wins because of the tiebreakers.
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Old 11-15-2005, 12:21 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MadMax
Would you bet a ****in nickle on this team in the playoffs?
NO. In fact, I wouldn't bet a nickle on them making 10-6 or even making the playoffs.
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Old 11-15-2005, 12:27 AM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MadMax
Would you bet a ****in nickle on this team in the playoffs?


Took the words right out of my mouth. Or close to it anyway. Anyone who is still holding out hope for a playoff appearance by this team is dreaming. Mark my post.
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Old 11-15-2005, 12:30 AM   #8
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Well, if you want a positive spin on it... First of all we take care of business in Houston, which if we don't do that it's over anyway. After that, we just run the table at Arrowhead, and split the road games. We do that, we're 11-5. Those four home games are all gonna be tough though, no doubt. Even if we dropped one of them we could finish 3-1 at home and split those road games... we'd be 10-6. I really think we're a bit behind the 8 ball right now, but I don't think we're dead yet. If we just take care of business at home, we'll give ourselves a shot at least.
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Old 11-15-2005, 12:35 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tk13
If we ran the table against the schedule we face to actually get in? Heck yeah.

Ok! I'd take that bet and raise you whatever! This team absolutely sucks! There are however bright spots.. ie LJ. ummm Mitchel, Allens fun to watch, DJ will be a player in the NFL, I will miss Priest,Trich,Roaf, And Shields...I'm just saying after 30 + years this shit gets really old... Sad part being I have NO choice in the team I support just like you guys.
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Old 11-15-2005, 12:38 AM   #10
MadMax MadMax is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tk13
Well, if you want a positive spin on it... First of all we take care of business in Houston, which if we don't do that it's over anyway. After that, we just run the table at Arrowhead, and split the road games. We do that, we're 11-5. Those four home games are all gonna be tough though, no doubt. Even if we dropped one of them we could finish 3-1 at home and split those road games... we'd be 10-6. I really think we're a bit behind the 8 ball right now, but I don't think we're dead yet. If we just take care of business at home, we'll give ourselves a shot at least.


Ok! TK first I have to ask how long??? Sorry that is a question I need to kmow before I argue any longer lol It beats you down after a while It is true....
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Old 11-15-2005, 05:51 AM   #11
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Unfortunately...


10-6 might get a team in the playoffs, but I do not see the Chiefs going 10-6 with this Offense.

And whodathunk it would be the Offense that hobbled us this season?

Father Time has ravaged what was once “the best OL in the NFL.” Saunders’ Offense simply does not work without a stout OL. And, unfortunately, I do not see our OL returning to “stout” status any time soon. Roaf & Shields are probably gone next season, so it will be a rebuild on the OL, with all the confusion, growing pains and QB damage that situation creates. The Chiefs Offense is past its peak and is well into its decline.

Although it is improving, the Chiefs Defense is not capable of compensating for the wretched Offense.

The playoffs are possible, but not without a suddenly rejuvenated Offense. And that will not happen without a suddenly rejuvenated Offensive Line. And that will not happen.

I fear that the “window of opportunity” was closed by the injuries to Roaf & Shields.

I will remain hopeful [because hope does not require a reasoned, logical foundation] until we are mathematically eliminated, but I just cannot see us in the playoffs with this OL this season.

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Old 11-15-2005, 06:46 AM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaz

10-6 might get a team in the playoffs, but I do not see the Chiefs going 10-6 with this Offense.

And whodathunk it would be the Offense that hobbled us this season?

Father Time has ravaged what was once “the best OL in the NFL.” Saunders’ Offense simply does not work without a stout OL. And, unfortunately, I do not see our OL returning to “stout” status any time soon. Roaf & Shields are probably gone next season, so it will be a rebuild on the OL, with all the confusion, growing pains and QB damage that situation creates. The Chiefs Offense is past its peak and is well into its decline.

Although it is improving, the Chiefs Defense is not capable of compensating for the wretched Offense.

The playoffs are possible, but not without a suddenly rejuvenated Offense. And that will not happen without a suddenly rejuvenated Offensive Line. And that will not happen.

I fear that the “window of opportunity” was closed by the injuries to Roaf & Shields.

I will remain hopeful [because hope does not require a reasoned, logical foundation] until we are mathematically eliminated, but I just cannot see us in the playoffs with this OL this season.

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Wretched offense? Sure, they were wretched against Buffalo, but other than that one outlier? Look at the season stats. And when Sampson/Roaf take over for Black....
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Old 11-15-2005, 06:58 AM   #13
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there`s hope they`ll make the playoffs. there`s hope they will win in the playoffs,with this O-line and theres always hope i`ll win the lotto. both have about the same odds it seems. but like buying latto tickets i`ll keep hoping the chiefs make the playoffs.
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Old 11-15-2005, 07:01 AM   #14
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A skunk by any other name...


The Offense has been inconsistent since the season opener. They have been a pale shadow of their former selves.

Personally, I doubt Roaf will be back. And even if he is, he will not be as effective. Better than Black? Sure. Good enough for this Offense to return to form? I doubt it.

And Sampson [despite his name] is hardly cause for celebration. He has not been able to get onto the field. He is unlikely to elevate our crappy OL when/if he does play.

I think wretched is appropriate.

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Old 11-15-2005, 07:06 AM   #15
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We can't beat a bad Bills team....there is no way we are playoff caliber. Our Oline can not pass block. Our receivers can not get open. Our revamped defensive back field can not stop the pass. The only reason we have had some success in stopping the run is because everyone throws on us.
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