Where's The Playoff Probablity Thread?

philfree · 12-06-2005, 10:59 PM

I was just wanting to wee the updated probabilities. I was just looking at this weeks schedule and it looks to me like if we can win on the road at Dallas there's a good chance we will improve our wildcard position. There's a good chance that the Jags will lose this week which will put them at 9-4 in a tie with the Chiefs and Chargers if both teams win. If things play out the way it looks like it will to me I'm curious as to what the odds of the Chiefs making the playoffs will be at that point. I still want to win out and steal the West from the Donks but mind you I'm just looking at the short run at this moment.

PhilFree

cdcox · 12-06-2005, 11:07 PM

Run the software, ya lazy bum

Why do you think I wrote it and put it on the web for the whole universe.

Here's a screen shot.

philfree · 12-06-2005, 11:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox

Run the software, ya lazy bum

Why do you think I wrote it and put it on the web for the whole universe.

Here's a screen shot.

It's more like I'm unqualified.

PhilFree

carlos3652 · 12-06-2005, 11:17 PM

Are we favored over Chargers because of the easier schedule...?

cdcox · 12-06-2005, 11:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by carlos3652

Are we favored over Chargers because of the easier schedule...?

That's what it looks like. We have a slightly higher power rating, but they are really close. The software predicts that we will have a better record, and I'll bet that is a result of them playing Indy, who is head and shoulders better than anyone else in power rating.

Dunit35 · 12-06-2005, 11:28 PM

How come the probability for Cincy to get first seed is 0. The Colts could lose out and be 12-4, even though they wont.

cdcox · 12-06-2005, 11:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunit35

How come the probability for Cincy to get first seed is 0. The Colts could lose out and be 12-4, even though they wont.

Because it didn't happen even once in 5000 random simulations. So the chances of it happening are pretty remote.

Dunit35 · 12-06-2005, 11:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox

Because it didn't happen even once in 5000 random simulations. So the chances of it happening are pretty remote.

Yeah I know, it was a joke.

cdcox · 12-06-2005, 11:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunit35

Yeah I know, it was a joke.

Playoff predictions are no laughing matter.

Dunit35 · 12-06-2005, 11:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox

Playoff predictions are no laughing matter.

Hahaha, my bad. Dont want to upset the gods of football.

philfree · 12-06-2005, 11:53 PM

So that's the probables going into week 14? So if my notion plays out and we win this week as well as the Donks and the Chargers but the Jags lose.........can we run the numbers and take a glimps at what the probables are would going into week 15?

PhilFree

cdcox · 12-07-2005, 12:09 AM

Based on your senario, KC's chances would go up to 56%, but that would go up or down depending if the Steelers won.

philfree · 12-07-2005, 12:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cdcox

Based on your senario, KC's chances would go up to 56%, but that would go up or down depending if the Steelers won.

I thought about adding a Steelers loss to Da Bears in but then I decided it was insignificant since they are a game behind us. Couldn't make that much difference in this scenario. Could it?

PhilFree

philfree · 12-07-2005, 12:23 AM

56%...Cool.....We gotta get it done this week.

PhilFree

12-06-2005, 10:59 PM
philfree Indian Twitter Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Free Agency Casino cash: $65954	Where's The Playoff Probablity Thread? I was just wanting to wee the updated probabilities. I was just looking at this weeks schedule and it looks to me like if we can win on the road at Dallas there's a good chance we will improve our wildcard position. There's a good chance that the Jags will lose this week which will put them at 9-4 in a tie with the Chiefs and Chargers if both teams win. If things play out the way it looks like it will to me I'm curious as to what the odds of the Chiefs making the playoffs will be at that point. I still want to win out and steal the West from the Donks but mind you I'm just looking at the short run at this moment. PhilFree
Posts: 8,925

12-06-2005, 11:07 PM	#2
cdcox www.nfl-forecast.com Join Date: Sep 2000 Casino cash: $1362446	Run the software, ya lazy bum Why do you think I wrote it and put it on the web for the whole universe. Here's a screen shot. Attached Thumbnails
Posts: 28,126

12-06-2005, 11:17 PM	#4
carlos3652 El Diablo Join Date: Dec 2004 Casino cash: $23168	Are we favored over Chargers because of the easier schedule...?
Posts: 4,144

12-06-2005, 11:28 PM	#6
Dunit35 Keepin it Real Join Date: Sep 2004 Location: Oklahoma Casino cash: $1995319	How come the probability for Cincy to get first seed is 0. The Colts could lose out and be 12-4, even though they wont.
Posts: 8,638

12-06-2005, 11:53 PM	#11
philfree Indian Twitter Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Free Agency Casino cash: $65954	So that's the probables going into week 14? So if my notion plays out and we win this week as well as the Donks and the Chargers but the Jags lose.........can we run the numbers and take a glimps at what the probables are would going into week 15? PhilFree __________________ [/SIGPIC]
Posts: 8,925

12-07-2005, 12:09 AM	#12
cdcox www.nfl-forecast.com Join Date: Sep 2000 Casino cash: $1362446	Based on your senario, KC's chances would go up to 56%, but that would go up or down depending if the Steelers won.
Posts: 28,126

12-07-2005, 12:23 AM	#14
philfree Indian Twitter Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Free Agency Casino cash: $65954	56%...Cool.....We gotta get it done this week. PhilFree __________________ [/SIGPIC]
Posts: 8,925

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