Home Mail MemberMap Chat (0) Wallpapers
Go Back   ChiefsPlanet > The Lounge

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 12-30-2005, 03:37 PM  
alnorth alnorth is offline
.
 
alnorth's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Iowania
Casino cash: $47372822
Odds of seeing the Chiefs in the playoffs

Looking around the internet at various money lines, I tried to come up with what a "fair" money line might be for each game. (theoretical equal, which isnt found in a casino)

I came up with:

(updated 1/1/2006)

Chiefs -300
Broncos (Win)
Lions +600

On the surface this seems reasonable to me. Mathematically, the expected chance of hitting both of those money lines would be about 10.7%

In the wildly optimistic scenario:

(updated 1/1/2006)

Chiefs -400
Broncos (Win)
Lions +400

This would work out to be 16%.

So, in the wildly optimistic scenario, I put the Chiefs at an 16% chance of playing after this weekend. Realistically: 10.7%

Last edited by alnorth; 01-01-2006 at 11:08 AM..
Posts: 28,267
alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-30-2005, 03:38 PM   #2
Hoover Hoover is offline
Rufus Dawes Jr.
 
Hoover's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2000
Casino cash: $9806
So your telling me there's a chance!
Posts: 8,665
Hoover 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliHoover 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliHoover 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliHoover 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliHoover 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliHoover 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliHoover 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliHoover 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliHoover 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliHoover 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliHoover 's adopt a chief was Sabby Piscitelli
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-30-2005, 03:39 PM   #3
alnorth alnorth is offline
.
 
alnorth's Avatar
 

Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Iowania
Casino cash: $47372822
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoover
So your telling me there's a chance!
A very small one.
__________________
<ptp> how many emo kids does it take to change a lightbulb?
<Willy> HOW MANY?!
<ptp> none they just sit in the dark and cry
Posts: 28,267
alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-30-2005, 03:40 PM   #4
Skip Towne Skip Towne is offline
Supporter
 
Skip Towne's Avatar
 

Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: T-Town
Casino cash: $5000
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoover
So your telling me there's a chance!
Just until about this time tomorrow.
Posts: 69,672
Skip Towne < Tried to steal Andy's chili fries.Skip Towne < Tried to steal Andy's chili fries.Skip Towne < Tried to steal Andy's chili fries.Skip Towne < Tried to steal Andy's chili fries.Skip Towne < Tried to steal Andy's chili fries.Skip Towne < Tried to steal Andy's chili fries.Skip Towne < Tried to steal Andy's chili fries.Skip Towne < Tried to steal Andy's chili fries.Skip Towne < Tried to steal Andy's chili fries.Skip Towne < Tried to steal Andy's chili fries.Skip Towne < Tried to steal Andy's chili fries.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-30-2005, 03:41 PM   #5
sedated sedated is offline
Like I woke up in Wonderland..
 
sedated's Avatar
 

Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: OPKS
Casino cash: $8674
what happened to all that one-in-a-million talk?
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by stlchiefs
Why can't more people be like sedated?
Posts: 15,313
sedated Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.sedated Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.sedated Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.sedated Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.sedated Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.sedated Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.sedated Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.sedated Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.sedated Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.sedated Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.sedated Forgot to Remove His Claytex and Got Toxic Shock Syndrome.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-30-2005, 03:42 PM   #6
alnorth alnorth is offline
.
 
alnorth's Avatar
 

Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Iowania
Casino cash: $47372822
Quote:
Originally Posted by Skip Towne
Just until about this time tomorrow.
Even if San Diego goes down tomorrow, our realistic odds only improve to 10.7% on Sunday.
__________________
<ptp> how many emo kids does it take to change a lightbulb?
<Willy> HOW MANY?!
<ptp> none they just sit in the dark and cry
Posts: 28,267
alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-30-2005, 04:04 PM   #7
Hoover Hoover is offline
Rufus Dawes Jr.
 
Hoover's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2000
Casino cash: $9806
It was a dumb and dumb movie quote....
Posts: 8,665
Hoover 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliHoover 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliHoover 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliHoover 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliHoover 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliHoover 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliHoover 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliHoover 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliHoover 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliHoover 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliHoover 's adopt a chief was Sabby Piscitelli
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-30-2005, 04:09 PM   #8
SLAG SLAG is offline
Superbowl MVP
 
SLAG's Avatar
 

Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: OOOOOOOOOOOOOLATHE
Casino cash: $6219
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoover
It was a dumb and dumb movie quote....
I think it was a dumber movie quote
__________________
Ad astra per aspera


Posts: 11,035
SLAG 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliSLAG 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliSLAG 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliSLAG 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliSLAG 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliSLAG 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliSLAG 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliSLAG 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliSLAG 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliSLAG 's adopt a chief was Sabby PiscitelliSLAG 's adopt a chief was Sabby Piscitelli
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-30-2005, 04:15 PM   #9
Iowanian Iowanian is offline
Besides, big day tomorrow
 
Iowanian's Avatar
 

Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Utopia
Casino cash: $15237
Its possible, but there is a better chance of seeing gochiefs and slayer dping jenna on cable sunday.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by KC native View Post
I said I'm an expert dickrider.
Posts: 51,031
Iowanian is obviously part of the inner Circle.Iowanian is obviously part of the inner Circle.Iowanian is obviously part of the inner Circle.Iowanian is obviously part of the inner Circle.Iowanian is obviously part of the inner Circle.Iowanian is obviously part of the inner Circle.Iowanian is obviously part of the inner Circle.Iowanian is obviously part of the inner Circle.Iowanian is obviously part of the inner Circle.Iowanian is obviously part of the inner Circle.Iowanian is obviously part of the inner Circle.
  Reply With Quote
Old 12-30-2005, 08:04 PM   #10
tommykat tommykat is offline
zzzz Kats always
 
tommykat's Avatar
 

Join Date: Mar 2001
Casino cash: $5000
Quote:
Originally Posted by alnorth
Even if San Diego goes down tomorrow, our realistic odds only improve to 10.7% on Sunday.
San Diego won't go down.......Donks will throw the game.
__________________


Take that KC helmet and just
Posts: 4,004
tommykat is a favorite in the douche of the year contest.tommykat is a favorite in the douche of the year contest.
  Reply With Quote
Old 01-01-2006, 11:09 AM   #11
alnorth alnorth is offline
.
 
alnorth's Avatar
 

Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Iowania
Casino cash: $47372822
Odds updated, I figure we have about a 1 in 10 shot now.
__________________
<ptp> how many emo kids does it take to change a lightbulb?
<Willy> HOW MANY?!
<ptp> none they just sit in the dark and cry
Posts: 28,267
alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.
  Reply With Quote
Old 01-01-2006, 11:11 AM   #12
4th and Long 4th and Long is offline
Wherefore art thou, Romeo
 
4th and Long's Avatar
 

Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: In a house
Casino cash: $5025
Quote:
Originally Posted by Iowanian
Its possible, but there is a better chance of seeing gochiefs and slayer dping jenna on cable sunday.
I'd pay to see that but only if gochiefs and slayer were removed from the picture.
__________________
Posts: 19,275
4th and Long is too fat/Omaha.4th and Long is too fat/Omaha.4th and Long is too fat/Omaha.4th and Long is too fat/Omaha.4th and Long is too fat/Omaha.4th and Long is too fat/Omaha.4th and Long is too fat/Omaha.4th and Long is too fat/Omaha.4th and Long is too fat/Omaha.4th and Long is too fat/Omaha.4th and Long is too fat/Omaha.
  Reply With Quote
Old 01-01-2006, 11:18 AM   #13
FringeNC FringeNC is offline
MVP
 

Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: NC
Casino cash: $8382
Quote:
Originally Posted by alnorth
Odds updated, I figure we have about a 1 in 10 shot now.
Nah...Detroit would be more than a 9:1 underdog all by itself at a whopping +16. I say about a 3% chance.
Posts: 7,653
FringeNC has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.FringeNC has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.FringeNC has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.FringeNC has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.FringeNC has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.FringeNC has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.FringeNC has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.FringeNC has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.FringeNC has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.FringeNC has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.FringeNC has just been standing around suckin' on a big ol' chili dog.
  Reply With Quote
Old 01-01-2006, 11:20 AM   #14
alnorth alnorth is offline
.
 
alnorth's Avatar
 

Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Iowania
Casino cash: $47372822
Well, I'm giving the Chiefs a 75% chance to win today, so if we assume the Lions have a 1 in 10 shot, that puts our own chances at 7.5%
__________________
<ptp> how many emo kids does it take to change a lightbulb?
<Willy> HOW MANY?!
<ptp> none they just sit in the dark and cry
Posts: 28,267
alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.alnorth has an IQ even higher than Frankie's.
  Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump




All times are GMT -6. The time now is 09:09 AM.


This is a test for a client's site.
A new website that shows member-created construction site listings that need fill or have excess fill. Dirt Monkey @ https://DirtMonkey.net
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.0
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.