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Old 12-30-2005, 03:37 PM  
alnorth alnorth is offline
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Odds of seeing the Chiefs in the playoffs

Looking around the internet at various money lines, I tried to come up with what a "fair" money line might be for each game. (theoretical equal, which isnt found in a casino)

I came up with:

(updated 1/1/2006)

Chiefs -300
Broncos (Win)
Lions +600

On the surface this seems reasonable to me. Mathematically, the expected chance of hitting both of those money lines would be about 10.7%

In the wildly optimistic scenario:

(updated 1/1/2006)

Chiefs -400
Broncos (Win)
Lions +400

This would work out to be 16%.

So, in the wildly optimistic scenario, I put the Chiefs at an 16% chance of playing after this weekend. Realistically: 10.7%

Last edited by alnorth; 01-01-2006 at 11:08 AM..
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Old 12-30-2005, 03:38 PM   #2
Hoover Hoover is offline
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So your telling me there's a chance!
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Old 12-30-2005, 03:39 PM   #3
alnorth alnorth is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoover
So your telling me there's a chance!
A very small one.
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Old 12-30-2005, 03:40 PM   #4
Skip Towne Skip Towne is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoover
So your telling me there's a chance!
Just until about this time tomorrow.
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Old 12-30-2005, 03:41 PM   #5
sedated sedated is offline
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what happened to all that one-in-a-million talk?
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Old 12-30-2005, 03:42 PM   #6
alnorth alnorth is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Skip Towne
Just until about this time tomorrow.
Even if San Diego goes down tomorrow, our realistic odds only improve to 10.7% on Sunday.
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Old 12-30-2005, 04:04 PM   #7
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It was a dumb and dumb movie quote....
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Old 12-30-2005, 04:09 PM   #8
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It was a dumb and dumb movie quote....
I think it was a dumber movie quote
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Old 12-30-2005, 04:15 PM   #9
Iowanian Iowanian is offline
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Its possible, but there is a better chance of seeing gochiefs and slayer dping jenna on cable sunday.
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Old 12-30-2005, 08:04 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alnorth
Even if San Diego goes down tomorrow, our realistic odds only improve to 10.7% on Sunday.
San Diego won't go down.......Donks will throw the game.
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Old 01-01-2006, 11:09 AM   #11
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Odds updated, I figure we have about a 1 in 10 shot now.
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Old 01-01-2006, 11:11 AM   #12
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Its possible, but there is a better chance of seeing gochiefs and slayer dping jenna on cable sunday.
I'd pay to see that but only if gochiefs and slayer were removed from the picture.
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Old 01-01-2006, 11:18 AM   #13
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Originally Posted by alnorth
Odds updated, I figure we have about a 1 in 10 shot now.
Nah...Detroit would be more than a 9:1 underdog all by itself at a whopping +16. I say about a 3% chance.
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Old 01-01-2006, 11:20 AM   #14
alnorth alnorth is offline
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Well, I'm giving the Chiefs a 75% chance to win today, so if we assume the Lions have a 1 in 10 shot, that puts our own chances at 7.5%
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